UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski - May 8th

[pryko]

Everyone with their arms folded on that poster will lose. or vice versa.

That's actually a very good shout

[wandshogun09]

On the prelims I really like the sound of Hugo Viana vs Wilson Reis. That could be fantastic.

 

Hugo has a knee injury and the fight has now been scrapped.

 

Fuck. That was the one undercard fight I was into. The rest I'm either not that fussed about or not very familiar with the names.

 

Jim, I hope you're right but the jury is out for me on Glover's wrestling until he actually shows it in dealing with a wrestler. He might have an awesome, Cro Cop 2003 level sprawl for all I know but until we see it in practice we don't know. I'd say Bader is by far the best wrestler he'll have faced. Generally when Bader wants to take a guy down he succeeds. He couldn't get his hands on Machida though. Kingsbury is probably the best wrestler Glover has fought up to now and he got tagged early. Plus Stephan Bonnar outwrestled Kingsbury.

 

I like Glover to win but there's unanswered questions on his wrestling and possibly his cardio if it goes long. And there's always an outside chance Bader lands a big punch. He does have power even if his boxing isn't all that polished. But yeah, I think at some point Glover will hurt him and probably jump on him for a TKO or submission.

[jimufctna24]

I hope you're right but the jury is out for me on Glover's wrestling until he actually shows it in dealing with a wrestler. He might have an awesome, Cro Cop 2003 level sprawl for all I know but until we see it in practice we don't know. I'd say Bader is by far the best wrestler he'll have faced.

Agreed, I am just speculating really, but like the both of us more experts think Glover will win handily from what I have read. Bader just lacks a certain something to be taken seriously as a title contender.

[wandshogun09]

Reports are that ticket sales have been woeful for this show. Obviously it's not a stacked card but I think the UFC got a bit complacent after such a strong start in Brazil, they probably thought they could sell out no matter who's on the card. Apparently, ticket sales for this have been so bad the UFC considered trying to move the show to a smaller venue. The arena holds 25,000 people and they've only sold 4,200. So they're going to have to give away a load of tickets because having 4/5ths of the arena empty is going to look shit.

 

Maia vs Shields in October probably won't do much better either. I think they overestimated what the Brazilians are willing to pay for. It's not like over here. Brazil gets 4 or 5 shows a year now, they can pick and choose which ones are worth forking out to go to.

[cutch]

Combat sports never really draws big gates in weekdays either, fans are willing to pay more and travel long distances on saturdays because they probably don't have work the next day and see it like a big night out. Fox Sports wants wednesday fight nights because they show college football on saturdays, so I think they should start moving most of these cards to the smaller Las Vegas buildings like the Hard Rock.

[Egg Shen]

a 25,000 seat arena

 

been doing a little bit of research on some of the names on the card cause a lot of it isn't jumping out at me, one of note is Ali Baugautinov, the Russian on the main card. It's his UFC debut, he's 10-2 but check out this list of credentials:

 

Master of Sports on International level (Russian honor awarded to top sportsmen)

Champion of Dagestan Republic in Combat Sambo and Freestyle Wrestling

Prize winner in Russian Championship in Greco-Roman Wrestling

Three-time Moscow Champion in Combat Sambo and Pankration

One-time Moscow Champion in Pankration and Grappling

Four-time Russian Champion in Combat Sambo

One-time Russian Champion in Pankration and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Two-time World Champion in Combat Sambo

Europe Champion in Combat Sambo

World Champion in Pankration

Euroasia champion in MMA

Europe champion in MMA

Russian champion in MMA.

 

Looks like we may have another little Russian beast on our hands.

[wandshogun09]

Haha, Master of Sports on International level. Champion of Dagestan Republic doesn't sound as impressive though. Wonder if it's like when Bobby Heenan was champion of his neighbourhood.

[jimufctna24]

Maia vs Shields in October probably won't do much better either. I think they overestimated what the Brazilians are willing to pay for. It's not like over here. Brazil gets 4 or 5 shows a year now, they can pick and choose which ones are worth forking out to go to.

FOX have forced them to roll the dice by asking for weekly fights, its not the best idea in my opinion. Brazil they would have seen as a godsend, thinking "well we have not oversaturated that market" problem is that they have, much like California which MMA raided in the mid-00's beyond saturation due to the early success, Brazil is now reaching that stage. I agree that they should go back to their roots, and do places like the Hard Rock, but Dana might be too proud and see it as a step backwards.

 

I would not pay for Maia vs Shields if they were fighting in my back yard. Despite being a BJJ icon, Maia will not draw in Brazil for several reasons.

 

A. He is not as charismatic as Vitor Belfort

 

B. He is not the star Anderson is.

 

C. He is not a conventionally exciting fighter in the mold of Shogun

 

D. Anderson calling him "rich boy" a few years back, does not really speak volumes of him appealing to the common MMA fan.

 

Shields is one of the least marketable sportsmen ever to exist, even hardcore fans and purists dislike him and find him dull as dishwater.

 

The UFC have to think smart, they cannot expect in 2013 to do well at the gate by putting UFC-Lite on every week in 20k arenas. If I am honest I can not offer a solution to their problems beyond booking smaller arenas.

[wandshogun09]

Word of warning, for some reason the main card has started at midnight instead of 1am as listed in the EPG. I noticed my Sky box wasn't recording as a result so if you've Sky+'ed this you might want to check it's actually recording.

 

What happened there? We only got an hour of prelims as well didn't we?

[Mike Williams]

The recording moved from BT Sport 1 to BT Sport 2 thats why.

[Egg Shen]

* Well, Glover took out Bader within a round, but Bader looked great whilst it lasted, he dropped Glover and seemed like the boss in there. Glover definitely showed he can take a punch though because Bader can crack, he stayed compised under pressure and landed a sweet one-two against the cage and Bader was a goner.

 

Glover has to be next for Jon Jones, im not convinced he'll win, but the streak he's on means he has to be next.

 

* Jacare could very well be next at 185 too, he looks better every time he fights, Okami was never in it. Jacare's continued improved standup makes him deadly, fighters are gonna be so hesitant to engage in any kind of fight with Jacare because he's so dangerous on the ground, but the hestitance standing opens you up to his striking. Beast.

 

* Duane Ludwig has to be the MMA coach of the year, has Team Alpha Male come close to losing a fight since he's taken over? have they gone to decision since he's taken over? They are just whiping guys out. I'm picking Benavidez over Mighty Mouse next time around.

 

* Fight of the night was Troeng/Natal for me (on the main card anyway), a fantastic grappling based MMA fight. Natal dominated most of it but you had to admite Tor's heart in this, the right hand he took in round 2 wouldn't have KO'd most people, great fight. Glad the UFC gave them the FOTN bonus as well, i half expected them to give to Trinaldo/Hallmann which was more of a standup fight (great comeback by Hallmann).

[wandshogun09]

Re- Mike Williams, yeah I noticed it changed to BT Sport 2. Still, they had the main card down for 1am all week and it started at midnight. Between that and moving it to BT 2, I bet loads of people got up today and their recording had dicked up. It was just chance that I happened to be up when it started and my girlfriend noticed it wasn't recording.

 

 

Everyone with their arms folded on that poster will lose. or vice versa.

 

Well, fuck me.

 

Can't really add a lot to what Ebb's said there.

 

I thought Bader looked probably the best he's ever looked, for about 2 minutes at least. Glover looked really unsure of himself after the first few exchanges. Glad to see Glover win though. He's an exciting guy to watch and he's likable as fuck. Reminds me of a cross between JDS and Shogun in his demeanor. He brings that edge of the seat feeling to his fights as well. It always feels like the fight can be over at any second, in his favour or against him. He's dangerous but he gets caught enough that you're never quite sure what's going to happen.

 

He won't beat Jones. But he brings an interesting style to match up at least. He's got that puncher's chance and he's got really strong BJJ. Outside of the very slim possibility of him clipping Jones early, I think we'd be looking at Jones picking him apart and finishing with ground and pound in the late rounds.

 

I'll be very shocked if either Gustafsson or Glover give Jones too much bother. At least they're fresh fights though.

 

Jacare looked incredible. Okami is such a difficult guy to deal with and it's not easy to put him away like that. Dangerous strikers like Lombard and Belcher couldn't do it, yet here's Jacare, who came into MMA as a pure BJJ guy, wiping Okami out with ease. There was the Boetsch fight but Okami was schooling him before that. Only Anderson Silva has dealt with Okami as easily as Jacare did last night. Don't even know who Jacare could fight next. He's already saying he won't fight Anderson. I think they'll want him to win one more fight before a title shot. Jacare vs the Bisping-Munoz winner would be ideal actually.

 

Benavidez looked great. With how shallow the 125 division is, I can't see it being long before they give him another shot at Mighty Mouse. Especially with John Lineker missing weight last time, and Gaudinot losing last week. Benavidez is the guy. And he had Mouse hurt last time.

 

Natal vs Troeng was quality. One of the best ground fights in a long time. Deserving FOTN. Sean Spencer vs Yuri Villefort was really good as well.

[Egg Shen]

yep, id be down with seeing Benavidez back in there. Tim Elliot is in the mix as well.

 

Baugautinov might benefit from the shallow divsion, he looked good last night. A little hesitant but when he did let his shit go he looked super dangerous, and a rare guy who looks to have genuine KO power at 125.

[jimufctna24]

Jacare may have just sent down a marker. If Weidman beats Anderson I see do Jacare vs Weidman. Such was Jacare's performance, he may have just overshadowed every other Middleweight Challenger.

 

Okami is one of the most underrated fighters in MMA, a complete control merchant who can neutralize most even if they have decent wrestling/grappling chops. Jacare did not let him get started, his striking has come along a long way. Yeah, Okami is not going to be mistaken for David Haye, but it took Anderson a good 2 rounds to stop Okami, it took a hail marry style attack from Tim Boetsch to stop Okami also. Jacare just blew him away in a matter of moments.

 

Glover's stock went down for me in victory. Bader is still a very bread and butter striker with modest power, yet he tagged Glover and had him in a bit of trouble. Glover himself despite the violent nature of the stoppage looked unimpressed, and even said he was not happy with his performance in a later interview. He is right to be, technically proficient fighters should not be troubled by Ryan Bader.

 

There are serious holes in Glover's striking game that Jones (or Gusty) would expose in my opinion. The Pit style of striking has been exposed, it has only a limited place in modern MMA, as MMA striking evolves and becomes more accurate and pin-point. Most, including myself like to romanticize Chuck Liddel in his prime, but I am starting to believe that the style of striking he populated would be exposed by today's athletes if we had a time warp.

 

Jones will always be at risk if Glover lands big-style, but it is not a strong possibility. Jones unlike Bader will be bring a refined and diverse striking game, and be able to keep Glover at distance, and maybe stop him sooner rather than later due to the openings and slackness Glover possesses. Rashad at his peak, and even a prime Rampage would have Glover on the deck in my view.

 

That said, I hope I am very wrong, as said above Glover is likable and I do enjoy watching him fight.

[wandshogun09]

Is Glover still with The Pit, or solely an ATT guy now?

 

Next up.

 

 

...Come on, it might not be that bad.

 

FOX SPORTS 1 MAIN CARD

Demian Maia vs Jake Shields

Erick Silva vs Dong Hyun Kim

Thiago Silva vs Matt Hamill

Fabio Maldonado vs Joey Beltran

Rousimar Palhares vs Mike Pierce

Raphael Assuncao vs TJ Dillashaw

 

FOX SPORTS 1 PRELIMS

Ildemar Alcantara vs Igor Araujo

Yan Cabral vs David Mitchell

Chris Cariaso vs Iliarde Santos

Allan Patrick vs Garrett Whitely

 

You know, despite the high possibility of a 5 round stalemate stinker of a main event, this is actually a pretty solid card. I'd say it's a bit better than last night's on paper. The main event could kill it though. No matter how good the fights before it are, if that fight turns out shit then it could put a dampner on the whole night and leave a sour taste.

 

So yeah, you're probably getting the sense that my hopes aren't high for Maia vs Shields. Maybe it will be better than I think, I might be being harsh. I just can't get excited about Shields fights at all, can anyone? Say what you want about guys like Ben Askren, Jon Fitch, Mike Pierce, Jacob Volkmann and guys like that, the 'grinders'. Shields, in my opinion, makes that lot look like Chute Boxe in comparison. Just a dull, beige bastard in every way. His fighting style might well be the answer to my insomnia. I've toyed with the idea of compiling a load of his fights onto disc to throw on when I go to bed. I'll give it a whirl next time I'm stuck looking at the ceiling at 4am. If it works I might even use this method when the baby comes if we're having trouble getting her off to sleep. You can't give babies Nytol, but you can always rely on Jake Shields to help you nod off.

 

Maia has had a few turd performances himself over the years. It's not typical of him though. Unlike Shields who looks terrified during fights, Maia is usually always looking to finish on the ground. And he's looked incredible since dropping to welterweight. Maybe he'll school Shields like he did Fitch. If he does I wouldn't be that shocked if Zuffa got rid of Shields. It'd be harsh after one loss but it wouldn't surprise me. He's skilled and successful but the UFC is also in the business of making money and putting on entertaining fights, neither of which Shields brings to the table. Ever since this fight was booked, it's had the feel for me of Zuffa trying to get rid of Shields. He holds no advantage really over Maia. As great a grappler as Shields is, Maia is better.

 

We'll see what happens. Maybe it'll be a pleasant surprise and be a BJJ classic. I've got a feeling it's more likely to be a subpar standup fight though, or a one sided 25 minute Maia masterclass with Shields fighting just to survive rather than win. I'm looking forward to this about as much as my dentist appointment/wisdom tooth extraction next week. I'm hoping Maia does us all a favour and buzzsaws through Shields and submits him. If he does, man, how can you deny him a title shot?

 

On to the positives, Erick Silva vs 'Stun Gun' Kim could be a fun clash of styles. Kim's Judo is overwhelming and he's so dominant. Like Maia though, at least he works to finish on the ground. He's very active with ground strikes and submission attempts. Not bad striking either. Last time Erick Silva fought a guy like Kim was the Fitch fight last October. He lost that night so this will be a good indicator of how much he's improved since then. That Fitch fight was awesome as well. Turned out to be FOTN and one of the surprise best fights of 2012. So my hopes are high for this because I think they match up similar to the Fitch fight.

 

Rony Jason vs Jeremy Stephens will be all-action. Both are very aggressive. It's a step up for Jason and he's looked great lately.

 

Thiago Silva vs Matt Hamill, I can't see past Silva by TKO. Usually I'd give a good wrestler a decent shot at Silva but Hamill just has the vibe of a totally shot fighter to me. He came out of retirement a year ago because he "missed the fame", so I'm not sure he's fighting for the right reasons now. And he's pushing 40 and banged up. I like Thiago to win this but he can be inconsistent himself.

 

Assuncao vs Dillashaw will be a good main card opener. Be interesting to see if Dillashaw can keep the Team Alpha Male streak going. Assuncao will be a hard test though.

 

 

This is the fight I'm most excited about though. Fabio Maldonado vs Joey Beltran. No way this doesn't deliver. They've both been having barnburners on the prelims and style-wise they match up perfect for a FOTN.

 

Also Rousimar Palhares is dropping to 170 for this. He's not getting any favours though, he's debuting in the new weight class against Mike Pierce who's a guy who only loses to the very top guys. He's usually stuck on the Facebook fights but he's one of the trickiest 170lbers around. Tough fight for Palhares.