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TUF Brazil 2/UFC on FUEL 10: 'Nogueira vs Werdum 2'


wandshogun09

Who wins and how?  

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Cain could dictate the fight with Werdum, by making sure it would not go to the ground as a better wrestler. Cain could bully Werdum against the cage in a clinch or press forward with striking, again the clinch game would not allow Werdum to score takedowns like he did with Nog as Cain is a more skilled wrestler than Werdum. Cain's relentless pace would also be too much for Werdum I think, unless a scramble went Werdum's way, Cain should be able to win handily. I think JDS could as well as long as if he kept Werdum at a distance with strikes and deployed his stellar takedown defense.

agreed. If Werdum was uncomfortable going backwards against Nog, he's gonna be fucked against Cain. I'm pretty confident in saying that Werdum's only chance of winning is to try and catch Cain off his back, but that's no easy task.What next Big Nog? there's been calls for retirement over the past couple of years at various times, but i think he showed enough to warranting continuing to fight. I don't see him breaking that top 5 again but i'd be happy to see him go down the showcase type route where they match him up stylisitcally right, i just don't wanna see the guy get his head caved in. I'd be on board for Nog/Struve, i think that would be an interesting scrap.
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What next Big Nog? there's been calls for retirement over the past couple of years at various times, but i think he showed enough to warranting continuing to fight. I don't see him breaking that top 5 again but i'd be happy to see him go down the showcase type route where they match him up stylisitcally right, i just don't wanna see the guy get his head caved in. I'd be on board for Nog/Struve, i think that would be an interesting scrap.

He's definitely coming to the end of his career, and as such I'd prefer to see him fight in some fan-friendly exhibition type fights rather than facing the top guys. Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing him fight Mark Hunt.
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I'm pretty confident in saying that Werdum's only chance of winning is to try and catch Cain off his back, but that's no easy task.

I fully agree that Cain is a terrible match up for Werdum, but really, we don't know how Cain would deal with a guard like Werdum's. The best BJJ guys he's faced up to now has been Nog and that ended so quick we didn't see any grappling. The one thing we haven't seen from Cain yet is what his submission defence is like. I'd expect it's good but is it good enough? If Werdum somehow found a way to drag it to the ground, pull guard whatever, or Cain took Werdum down, I could see Werdum catching him. Chances are it won't matter. Cain's no dummy, I expect he'll avoid the ground at all costs in this one and just put a beating on Werdum on the feet. If Cain wants to keep it standing, I don't see Werdum being able to get it to the ground. I'd give Cain the advantage in striking, and definitely in wrestling, speed and cardio. On paper Werdum looks pretty fucked.

I'd be on board for Nog/Struve, i think that would be an interesting scrap.

Love the sound of that. Nog vs Hunt would be fun as well, but I'd prefer Nog vs Struve next. Another fight I'm hoping for is Erick Silva vs the winner of Thiago Alves/Matt Brown. Imagine that fight, either fight.
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Strange card. The way BJJ reigned supreme in Brazil was interesting, but the overload of quick finishes meant that there weren't many fights that was actually very good. That's why I haven't posted about this event sooner, I genuinely didn't know how to rate it. Says something though when the fight of the night involves a fighter throwing a spinning elbow then gassing in the first 3 minutes.On that note, Thiago Silva continues to prove he is a massive dick. He played the bongos on Vera, showboated when he should have finished Rashad, and keeps failing drug tests post fight. Here he goes back to hit Feijao an extra time after Big Dan was pulling him away. I know there was bad blood there, but that was almost Daley on Koscheck bad.Erick Silva is a delight to watch. Considering how close he came to beating Fitch, and how quickly he disposes of these lower tier guys, he really should get a name opponent next. The winner of Alves/Brown is perfect, assuming Erick wins that fight, I'd love to see Silva vs. Condit maybe at the end of the year, that could be a mental fight.

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Nog vs Hunt gets my vote, would just be a fun style match up with two Pride mainstays who never crossed paths back in the day. Struve is also a decent option. I think Nog still has a few fights left, he looked in good shape on Saturday, much better than the Herman fight.Also I agree, no way Cain will even play in Werdum's guard ,he is too much of a octagon general for that. Cain is masterful in taking away fighters primary weapons and exposing their weaknesses, he did not let JDS get his striking into groove by not giving him any space, and exposed holes in JDS's game like keeping his chin up when scrambling and having the savvy to punish this weakness repeatedly. He also let Brock rush his work and blow his wad before he went in for the kill to win the title. Even the Kongo fight where he got dropped he ensured that he spent as little time as possible playing the striking game with Kongo. Cain is maybe the smartest Heavyweight in MMA history, or at least the best at following a well thought out gameplan.

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Why is everyone on about Werdum's chances against Cain? JDS might have something to say about that.

I assume they're basing their opinions on their last fight where JDS got absolutely schooled for 25 minutes.
True, but wind back to their first fight and one punch changes all that.
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Why is everyone on about Werdum's chances against Cain? JDS might have something to say about that.

I touched on JDS vs Werdum 2 it in my post.It is my opinion, that if JDS kept his distance and did not allow Werdum close that he could polish off Werdum inside the distance. JDS showed against Mir that he can also fight smart and give submission artists fits if they do not have a outstanding wrestling game. As for JDS vs Cain 3, I am sticking with Cain. JDS will always be a serious threat with his boxing game, but Cain showed he can distort JDS's game with his relentless pace in the second fight and drag him into areas where Cain is stronger (clinch's against the cage and on the ground) I strongly believe JDS will be the Big Nog to Cain's Fedor for the next few years.
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Why is everyone on about Werdum's chances against Cain? JDS might have something to say about that.

I touched on JDS vs Werdum 2 it in my post.It is my opinion, that if JDS kept his distance and did not allow Werdum close that he could polish off Werdum inside the distance. JDS showed against Mir that he can also fight smart and give submission artists fits if they do not have a outstanding wrestling game. As for JDS vs Cain 3, I am sticking with Cain. JDS will always be a serious threat with his boxing game, but Cain showed he can distort JDS's game with his relentless pace in the second fight and drag him into areas where Cain is stronger (clinch's against the cage and on the ground) I strongly believe JDS will be the Big Nog to Cain's Fedor for the next few years.
Keep forgetting also that JDS destroyed Werdum in what may have been his debut?
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I strongly believe JDS will be the Big Nog to Cain's Fedor for the next few years.

That's a decent comparison but Nog never beat Fedor, much less wiped him out in a minute. I get what you mean though, in the cases of both Nog and JDS you have a clear number two, clearly above the rest of the division (although Cro Cop was always nipping at Nog's heels). They'd be the number one but for the dominant champs of their era - Fedor and Cain.But let's not forget, Cain and JDS are 1-1. It's too early to put JDS in the perennial silver medal category yet. I'm favouring Cain but JDS can still win the trilogy. He was doing well stuffing Cain's shots early on in the rematch, it all went really wrong for him once Cain blasted him with that huge punch, he never seemed to truly recover from that and it instantly took all the snap out of his punches and the movement out of his legs. I'm picking Cain but it's not as sure a bet as people make out in my opinion. He's the favourite and rightly so after their last fight, but JDS has shown he has the power needed to sit Cain on his arse once. Now he knows what Cain is really capable of I'm sure he'll be better equipped to deal with it than he was in December. I'm going with Cain on points again, but I think it will be more competitive this time. Now they've both felt the worst case scenarios the other can bring, I think we'll see the best versions of both in the rubber match. I think it will be the best fight of the trilogy at least anyway. JDS vs Werdum 2, I think would look a lot like JDS vs Mir. Like Jim said, I just don't see Werdum being able to get it to the ground and although his striking has improved, he's not at the level of JDS and I don't think he has the kind of power to keep JDS off him either. I'd pick Cigano by KO within 2 rounds.
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It was indeed Lamby.Fun story, Werdum was a massive favorite. Dana showed in his blog a video of JDS working the pads and the odds shifted a bit, but Werdum remained a modest favorite even when he came into the weigh in with a sizable gut.The rest is history.

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But let's not forget, Cain and JDS are 1-1. It's too early to put JDS in the perennial silver medal category yet. I'm favouring Cain but JDS can still win the trilogy. He was doing well stuffing Cain's shots early on in the rematch, it all went really wrong for him once Cain blasted him with that huge punch, he never seemed to truly recover from that and it instantly took all the snap out of his punches and the movement out of his legs.

If JDS could keep a decent distance from Cain for a significant amount of time, he may be able to beat Cain. The problem is the pace that Cain's sets makes it very hard, even when JDS was defending the pace Cain was setting was out of this world for a Heavyweight, even if he did gas before he could finish JDS he did enough damage and wore down JDS to a extent where JDS was a walking corpse.JDS is a bit like Belfort was in the past with Cain, he has a very short window to rock Cain or he faces a very long night. Yes, he has done it before and could very well do it again, but for me it is possible than probable. I just see Cain being too seasoned and confiedent in his game after the first two fights to get caught in their third outing.
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