Pick Your Power Game Thread

[spotlightmagnet1]

I thought the point of Teedy's post was to keep an eye out for those who haven't posted much or seem unwilling to post so much. I'm not full heartedly agreeing with Teedy and even said I concur with tom's theory on his first post of the game in the same post.

 

This is interesting since I never said you were agreeing with Teedy, just that I thought his point was irrelevant. You come across very defensive here.

 

I am suspicious of Bristep because quite honestly, I thought the whole '48 hours to talk and change numbers' was fairly clear. I can understand he made a mistake but then when people started to question how quick he was to clear it up, I thought maybe it was a little speedy. I read that he was fast, and started to wonder if maybe he was some distracting us with a silly point, but then decided against it, for whatever reason.

 

Again, though, if Bristep is scum then I fail to see how clearing up that mistake so quickly helps their cause at all. For what it's worth, if you go back and look his original response to Swiftstrike came one minute after Swift posted. Unless he and Swift are both scum then it seems reasonable to assume that he just typed his correction really fast as well.

 

Okay dokey, firstly I was wrong, sorry, but your arguement seemed to be Teedy should be aiming this allegation at you and I wanted to clear the air, I wasn't thinking of you, just Adam619. Secondly, I thought maybe Bristep posted it up and maybe talked to fellow scum or just had a thought of 'oh crap, I did the wrong thing here'.

[Mike Castle]

Vote Count

swiftstrike (1) - Nexus

Teedy Kay (2) - bristep123, tom

Judas (1) - Ron Simmons

Family Guy PMSL (1) - El Nicko Loco

Losers (1) - Chris B

bristep123 (1) - Family Guy PMSL

 

Not Voting:

Andrew the Giant, unfitfinlay, Teedy Kay, Carbomb MA, spotlightmagnet1, seph, Lion, swiftstrike, SMS

 

With 16 Alive it takes 9 to lynch.

 

Day phase ends: 7pm Friday 18th March.

[Ron Simmons]

Thought I'd unvoted, but

unvote

 

VOTE Lion Of The Midlands

[Retro Red]

Let's clear something up. 1 in 16 chance of picking the first number. Then, another 1 in 15 chance for the second number. So a 1 in 240, or 0.4% chance of Lion and ChrisB picking the same numbers independently. This is only a factor if one of them are lynched and flip scum.

 

That's potentially cherry-picking probability. Let me explain (and I can't do the maths confidently, but I do understand some of the concepts behind it, so if I set it up and someone else could actually tell the odds, I'd appreciate it).

 

That's the probability that (specifically) me and Lion would pick the same numbers. The question I feel you should be asking is "WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT TWO PEOPLE IN THE GAME WOULD PICK THE SAME NUMBERS" (clarity, not shouting). That's a hell of a lot higher.

 

From my point of view, the odds that someone would pick my numbers are pretty remote. However, the chances that two people in the game would be likely to pick the same numbers are pretty good.

 

As an example of the kind of thing I'm talking about, This link explains that the likelihood of two people in a football match having the same birthday is about 50/50.

 

Ok, then if I'm getting the math right 1/256 (1 in 16 then 1 in 16, not 1 in 15 because you could choose the same number twice) with 120 events (16 players so (16*15)/2). So a probability of 46.8% that 2 players chose the same set of 2 numbers between 1 and 16.

[Chris B]

Right, my actions aren't scummy at all.

 

I believe Bristep made quite a fundamental slip up, and I think Swifty may have come across something by highlighting it.

 

-=The use of language=-

 

I'm going to break this down and give counter language examples to try and wrap up this absolutely ludicrous wagon against me.

 

"I think a nail may have been hit on the head here, not willing to vote yet, need to let the day progress just that touch more, however"

 

Notice the word 'THINK' this clearly highlights a thought process, it does not in any way indicate a clear decision bought from fact, at the moment there is only assumption that could be made from such an early post as Bristep's.

 

He either did what he said, or did what Swiftstrike said. I leaned towards Swiftstrike, because I honestly believe there may have been an early slip there, not the words 'may have been'. Nothing is for definite, hence why I FOS'ed and didnt VOTE.

 

"I think a nail may have been hit on the head here, not willing to vote yet, need to let the day progress just that touch more, however"

 

Yup told you all in that exact post I wasn't willing to vote, this is because of the word THINK being in the first line of the sentance.

 

"I think a nail may have been hit on the head here, not willing to vote yet, need to let the day progress just that touch more, however"

 

I believe the slip 'could' yield a result, but I'm not jumping into a vote at this moment in time

 

What you lot are accusing me of saying is this:

 

"A nail has been hit on the head here, want to vote but I'll wait a wee while, once more have I'll jump on this bad boy"

 

To claim I am actually starting a Wagon is ridiculous, a point has been highlighted by Swift, I think it's an extremely valid point, and in this whole thread so far has been the most incriminating bit of posting, I however am the one advocating the notion of patience, to let the game go on, to see if others slip, to gain ideas and thought from everyone else before snatching at a lynch. It is in fact an anti-wagon that I have started if you truly break it down and look at it.

 

It could be anti-wagoning. It could also be trying to get a wagon going without looking like you're either starting it or boarding it. Keeping a level of deniability is definitely a scum trick. I know it is, because I've done it.

Quoting this as to not miss it this time the reason I addressed the aniti waggoning comment to Chris rather than TDK is that I missed it in TDK post as it was hidden among other stuff.

 

By the way Chris you keep asking why I'm ignoring TDK posting, if you haven't worked out my town read yet it is a shame for you, but I do ignore the waggons that have a number of people pushing them where as when scum I jump those wagons and push them hard.

 

 

It isn't hidden amongst other stuff. It's the sentence before my response. It's the last thing he says.

 

And it wasn't 'ignoring a wagon'. It was ignoring direct questions and also ignoring actions. You don't usually ignore them to the point of not commenting.

 

Oh, and since Mike is obviously being picky...

 

Unvote: Losers

 

Vote: Teedy Kay

[swiftstrike]

Let's clear something up. 1 in 16 chance of picking the first number. Then, another 1 in 15 chance for the second number. So a 1 in 240, or 0.4% chance of Lion and ChrisB picking the same numbers independently. This is only a factor if one of them are lynched and flip scum.

 

That's potentially cherry-picking probability. Let me explain (and I can't do the maths confidently, but I do understand some of the concepts behind it, so if I set it up and someone else could actually tell the odds, I'd appreciate it).

 

That's the probability that (specifically) me and Lion would pick the same numbers. The question I feel you should be asking is "WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT TWO PEOPLE IN THE GAME WOULD PICK THE SAME NUMBERS" (clarity, not shouting). That's a hell of a lot higher.

 

From my point of view, the odds that someone would pick my numbers are pretty remote. However, the chances that two people in the game would be likely to pick the same numbers are pretty good.

 

As an example of the kind of thing I'm talking about, This link explains that the likelihood of two people in a football match having the same birthday is about 50/50.

 

Ok, then if I'm getting the math right 1/256 (1 in 16 then 1 in 16, not 1 in 15 because you could choose the same number twice) with 120 events (16 players so (16*15)/2). So a probability of 46.8% that 2 players chose the same set of 2 numbers between 1 and 16.

Bristep then add to the fact that Lion alledgely would vote at random for Chris B so that is another 1 in 15 calculation.

[Chris B]

Let's clear something up. 1 in 16 chance of picking the first number. Then, another 1 in 15 chance for the second number. So a 1 in 240, or 0.4% chance of Lion and ChrisB picking the same numbers independently. This is only a factor if one of them are lynched and flip scum.

 

That's potentially cherry-picking probability. Let me explain (and I can't do the maths confidently, but I do understand some of the concepts behind it, so if I set it up and someone else could actually tell the odds, I'd appreciate it).

 

That's the probability that (specifically) me and Lion would pick the same numbers. The question I feel you should be asking is "WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT TWO PEOPLE IN THE GAME WOULD PICK THE SAME NUMBERS" (clarity, not shouting). That's a hell of a lot higher.

 

From my point of view, the odds that someone would pick my numbers are pretty remote. However, the chances that two people in the game would be likely to pick the same numbers are pretty good.

 

As an example of the kind of thing I'm talking about, This link explains that the likelihood of two people in a football match having the same birthday is about 50/50.

 

Ok, then if I'm getting the math right 1/256 (1 in 16 then 1 in 16, not 1 in 15 because you could choose the same number twice) with 120 events (16 players so (16*15)/2). So a probability of 46.8% that 2 players chose the same set of 2 numbers between 1 and 16.

Bristep then add to the fact that Lion alledgely would vote at random for Chris B so that is another 1 in 15 calculation.

 

That's separate, because there are other factors at play there. One's a mathematical issue - the other isn't, really, unless Lion made his choice using a randomiser. Which I don't think anybody believes.

[swiftstrike]

okay then why did Lion state it was at random and also if we assume that scum would not pick the same numbers as you would have us believe that brings down the number of pairs who could pick the same numbers and reduce the probability by the same process.

 

Also reposting as this seems to have got lost in the shuffle

 

I'm getting on to chris and bristep point but spotted this. It is more likely of the two lion is scum after all he may be trying to distance to avoid looking like a scum team when there isn't one as another explaination for lion's alledged RVS post. If Lion is scum it is likely but not certain that Chris is. the other way around is less likely but seeing as by now watching the interaction we change it, it is just something to bare in mind

[unfitfinlay]

First of all, I am getting confused by the cases for peoples votes at this stage already, so can people please briefly sum up there case on their suspect and can the suspect briefly reply with their defence.

 

Right now, I suspect three people:

 

Teedy Kay: As has been mentioned before he has just acted quite scummy. As Chris B has pointed out, his FOS on Bristep would be excellent scum play if Bristep is lynched. He supports the case by saying that Swift "hit the nail on the head" but doesn't vote, giving him deniability if Bristep flips town. When questioned, he gets very defensive and backs off to the point that he is now trying to argue that he was trying to STOP a wagon from forming.

 

I'm interested to see what he's got on Bristep but, as it stands, his play just doesn't add up.

 

Swiftstrike: I'm really not convinced by his focus on who chose what numbers. As I've said before I do not believe a four man scum team would risk ending up powerless just to appear town. He's also appeared pretty evasive during his discussion with Chris B and his point about Chris' "interaction" with Lion was just bizarre.

 

SpotlightMagnet1: His posting style has been very different from the last game. As I said before This post seems very forced and unnatural. This one reminds me of something I would have written in the last game. It gives the illusion of looking like he suspects TDK but doesn't actually push anything. Here he seems very defensive, and quick to point out that he wasn't entirely agreeing with TDK.

 

Edit after Preview.

 

Okay dokey, firstly I was wrong, sorry, but your arguement seemed to be Teedy should be aiming this allegation at you and I wanted to clear the air, I wasn't thinking of you, just Adam619. Secondly, I thought maybe Bristep posted it up and maybe talked to fellow scum or just had a thought of 'oh crap, I did the wrong thing here'.

 

My argument was that if TDK wants to stop people winning the game by lurking he should've been going after someone who hasn't posted much either in this game or the last one, not Bristep. Since Adam619 isn't playing this one and I was the next least active scum poster, I think I would be the obvious choice to look at.

 

One other thing though. You didn't believe that Bristep could check out the sign up thread and post a correction in under a minute but you DID think he could talk to a fellow scum member and then post his correction, in the same amount of time?

[Teedy Kay]

Bristep, please, for you to get all these FOS's turned into votes, please show me where I've even mentioned hours at all?

You agreed with Spotlight, despite him being wrong. I didn't say you mentioned the hours, can you point out where I said you mentioned the hours? Oh that's right, you can't because I didn't. Really, please continue to twist statements.

 

Oh but I can Bristep, because you did, so whose twisting statements now? Granted it's easier when the other's back's against the wall.

 

So clear that you both just got the hours mixed up.

 

The both in question is myself and Spotlight

 

IF Bristep flips Town after my lynching, just to highlight to you all, that is the EXACT reason I did not go an vote for him from the off.

 

Oh and my innocence is within my defences, a switched on Vanilla Town would be able to clarify that with ease.

 

I just suggest you all look elsewhere, I've not acted scummy at all, I have been lambasted and hounded for patient play, and every defence posted has been harangued and turned into down right non-sensical plays against me.

 

It's good to see a fair few realise the idiocy of the accusation.

 

I believe Bristep is desperate after the slip, whether he be Town or not, he wants to survive, by making an example of myself. Poor play indeed.

 

Tom however, I think he's the one doing damage and attempting to drive this through without coming across as overbearing with it, hell Bristep is doing that for him, which I honestly think puts Bristep closer to being Town. Tom is after this lynch, he's ignored many things about the game (the numbers) yet jumped to say he hadn't. For me out my attackers I believe he's the scummiest of the group.

 

VOTE: tom

 

And THAT'S why I didn't vote Bristep from the off.

[Carbomb]

Fuck. This game has moved really fast, and now I'm left with a backlog to catch up on. Coupled with the fact that I won't have time to do that until this evening, this is not good.

[Chris B]

okay then why did Lion state it was at random

 

Because it's a random voting stage, and making the point that it's a meaningless pick?

 

and also if we assume that scum would not pick the same numbers (as you would have us believe) that brings down the number of pairs who could pick the same numbers and reduce the probability by the same process.

 

Added brackets for clarity, as it took me a few goes to work this one out.

 

It doesn't reduce the probability by much, as they don't know what everyone else has chosen - so they can only choose to avoid each other. However, if we're assuming that, why are we having this conversation? If scum are avoiding having the same numbers, then taking that into account in order to point out how unlikely it is that they wouldn't is stupid. Off the top of my head, I'd guess that makes about a five percent difference, max.

 

Also reposting as this seems to have got lost in the shuffle

 

I'm getting on to chris and bristep point but spotted this. It is more likely of the two lion is scum after all he may be trying to distance to avoid looking like a scum team when there isn't one as another explaination for lion's alledged RVS post. If Lion is scum it is likely but not certain that Chris is. the other way around is less likely but seeing as by now watching the interaction we change it, it is just something to bare in mind

 

Why is it particularly likely that either of us are scum? I've already pointed out, and Bristep backed this up, that it's not that unlikely that two people would choose the same numbers.

[tom]

Bristep, please, for you to get all these FOS's turned into votes, please show me where I've even mentioned hours at all?

You agreed with Spotlight, despite him being wrong. I didn't say you mentioned the hours, can you point out where I said you mentioned the hours? Oh that's right, you can't because I didn't. Really, please continue to twist statements.

 

Oh but I can Bristep, because you did, so whose twisting statements now? Granted it's easier when the other's back's against the wall.

 

So clear that you both just got the hours mixed up.

 

The both in question is myself and Spotlight

 

IF Bristep flips Town after my lynching, just to highlight to you all, that is the EXACT reason I did not go an vote for him from the off.

 

Oh and my innocence is within my defences, a switched on Vanilla Town would be able to clarify that with ease.

 

I just suggest you all look elsewhere, I've not acted scummy at all, I have been lambasted and hounded for patient play, and every defence posted has been harangued and turned into down right non-sensical plays against me.

 

It's good to see a fair few realise the idiocy of the accusation.

 

I believe Bristep is desperate after the slip, whether he be Town or not, he wants to survive, by making an example of myself. Poor play indeed.

 

Tom however, I think he's the one doing damage and attempting to drive this through without coming across as overbearing with it, hell Bristep is doing that for him, which I honestly think puts Bristep closer to being Town. Tom is after this lynch, he's ignored many things about the game (the numbers) yet jumped to say he hadn't. For me out my attackers I believe he's the scummiest of the group.

 

VOTE: tom

 

And THAT'S why I didn't vote Bristep from the off.

(1) Chris B and bristep both fingered you out before I even posted about you, and bristep even voted for you so how could I have instigated the initial lynch push?

(2) You chose not to vote bristep before I'd even posted about you, yet you claim you didn't vote for bristep BECAUSE of me. Do you have a time machine or just hoping people won't look back at the thread or remember?

(3) I have not ignored the numbers, I simply questioned the relevance which was then explained to me

(4) I didn't jump to say I'd not ignored the numbers, you actually questioned me on the numbers issue and tried to belittle me and discredit me and I simply answered that, it's not like I randomly brought it up

(5) Nice OMGUS from you there

[tom]

EBWOP : Contradictions there too; bristep is overbearing so is town [a slip must surely be a sign of scum, as it's not a slip in the sense of this game otherwise], yet I'm attempting to drive this through so am scum? Essentially we are both accusing you

[tom]

EBWOP

 

Oh and my innocence is within my defences, a switched on Vanilla Town would be able to clarify that with ease.

Are you suggesting that anyone who targets you must be scum?