Pick Your Power Game Thread

[Retro Red]

Not what I was talking about. Post #115 of yours quoting post #96 of ChrisB's. TDK's part has been removed from the quote, changing the context. Wouldn't be as big an issue if your question to ChrisB wasn't directly related to the change of context.

 

TDK - "What I did was an anti-wagon if anything"

ChrisB - "It might be an anti-wagon, but then again it might not be"

You - "ChrisB what do you mean by anti-wagon"

 

Your question only really applies if you remove the first of the 3 statements, which you did.

Right I understand that now I removed that as I didn't want to start creating walls of text. given you didn't refer to that post earlier I assumed you where talking about my most recent post.

Ok, then can you now comment on why your question towards Chris only applies when the context is changed by removing TDK's original statement, which you did?

[Ron Simmons]

Carbomb - Haven't heard your input on what's happening in a while. What do you make of the current situation in game?

 

Chris I wasn't referring to you and bristep.

 

Do you not think it's odd that both you and lion choose exactly the same numbers and the he randomly chooses a vote to go for and it's you again what are the chances of that?

Having rubbished your number analyzing idea this is going to sound odd coming from me, but I think that's quite a good spot.

FOS Chris B

 

FOS Lion Of The Midlands

 

You think, in a game with lots of roles, that scum would intentionally be very likely half-vanilla?

I certainly think it's a strange coincidence. It's only an FOS as opposed to a vote as it almost seems too blatant to me. As in, why would Lion vote for you after picking the same numbers? Why not distance himself from ANOTHER member of the scum with his random vote, if distancing was his aim?

 

However, it is a little odd, and sometimes people make blatantly obvious slips that go ignored because they're so obvious. I don't think it's anywhere near enough to justify voting for you on it, but I think it's worth noting with an FOS.

[Chris B]

Carbomb - Haven't heard your input on what's happening in a while. What do you make of the current situation in game?

 

Chris I wasn't referring to you and bristep.

 

Do you not think it's odd that both you and lion choose exactly the same numbers and the he randomly chooses a vote to go for and it's you again what are the chances of that?

Having rubbished your number analyzing idea this is going to sound odd coming from me, but I think that's quite a good spot.

FOS Chris B

 

FOS Lion Of The Midlands

 

You think, in a game with lots of roles, that scum would intentionally be very likely half-vanilla?

I certainly think it's a strange coincidence.

 

That two people pick the same numbers? It's one chance in sixteen less likely than two people picking the same number once, which happened a bunch of times.

 

It's only an FOS as opposed to a vote as it almost seems too blatant to me. As in, why would Lion vote for you after picking the same numbers?

 

Surely BECAUSE he picked the same numbers? Honestly, that's my guess. I voted for Ron (and Lion, by use of 'losers') because it was funny, not because it was real.

 

Why not distance himself from ANOTHER member of the scum with his random vote, if distancing was his aim?

 

Why would distancing be his aim?

[swiftstrike]

I'm getting on to chris and bristep point but spotted this. It is more likely of the two lion is scum after all he may be trying to distance to avoid looking like a scum team when there isn't one as another explaination for lion's alledged RVS post. If Lion is scum it is likely but not certain that Chris is. the other way around is less likely but seeing as by now watching the interaction we change it, it is just something to bare in mind

[tom]

I'm a bit lost here; what relevance is there in the fact two people picked the same numbers? What benefit would that be to scum?

[Chris B]

I'm a bit lost here; what relevance is there in the fact two people picked the same numbers? What benefit would that be to scum?

 

I believe the argument is that it makes them look more likely to be town, since they've cunningly put themselves at the end of the list for trying to get roles, and almost guaranteeing that they're vanilla.

 

It's certainly a ballsy tactic, since having two de-powered scum in a power-heavy game is quite the trade off.

[Ron Simmons]

That two people pick the same numbers? It's one chance in sixteen less likely than two people picking the same number once, which happened a bunch of times.

Not so much the numbers, I think going by numbers alone is stupid - in fact, I think going by numbers GENERALLY is stupid. However, the identical numbers AND random vote by Lion landing on you might be a bit of a slip on his part - an attempt in distancing one scum member from the other.

 

Surely BECAUSE he picked the same numbers? Honestly, that's my guess. I voted for Ron (and Lion, by use of 'losers') because it was funny, not because it was real.

I get that. It WAS funny - I think the fault, if there is any, is on Lion's part here, not yours.

 

Why would distancing be his aim?

So it wouldn't look like the two of you were part of the same team.

 

While I'm not completely convinced by it, I think it was quite a clever spot. If it's a correct spot it shows that swiftstrike was right about the number analyzing TO AN EXTENT and I was wrong to dismiss it as outright as I did.

 

My other theory is that swiftstrike is playing quite a clever game by drawing attention to number co-incidences, and after realizing Lion, his theoretical scum buddy, had picked the same numbers as you his group plotted out a move to use that in their favour and bring you down at some point.

[Teedy Kay]

On me not really answering things to full effect.

 

I will be getting to this, especially one point made by Bristep which has made me shake my head, I'm just having a fairly busy weekend, as soon as I have a spare 30 mins I will construct not only a defence, but also an offence.

 

And Tom, the numbers were brought up either end of Page 2 or defo Page 3, it was teh conversation that in fact triggered the whole Bristep slip. Knowing you don't know that point, holds my opinion of your thoughts of me very low indeed.

[Retro Red]

Let's clear something up. 1 in 16 chance of picking the first number. Then, another 1 in 15 chance for the second number. So a 1 in 240, or 0.4% chance of Lion and ChrisB picking the same numbers independently. This is only a factor if one of them are lynched and flip scum.

[Ron Simmons]

Sod it, I think this is could be an extremely beneficial lynch for the town. If Lion flips scum then it quite possibly means that either Chris B or swiftstrike is scum alongside him. Given we potentially have a cop on our side then we're potentially in the position to take out half of the scum.

VOTE Lion Of The Midlands

[Chris B]

Let's clear something up. 1 in 16 chance of picking the first number. Then, another 1 in 15 chance for the second number. So a 1 in 240, or 0.4% chance of Lion and ChrisB picking the same numbers independently. This is only a factor if one of them are lynched and flip scum.

 

That's potentially cherry-picking probability. Let me explain (and I can't do the maths confidently, but I do understand some of the concepts behind it, so if I set it up and someone else could actually tell the odds, I'd appreciate it).

 

That's the probability that (specifically) me and Lion would pick the same numbers. The question I feel you should be asking is "WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT TWO PEOPLE IN THE GAME WOULD PICK THE SAME NUMBERS" (clarity, not shouting). That's a hell of a lot higher.

 

From my point of view, the odds that someone would pick my numbers are pretty remote. However, the chances that two people in the game would be likely to pick the same numbers are pretty good.

 

As an example of the kind of thing I'm talking about, This link explains that the likelihood of two people in a football match having the same birthday is about 50/50.

[tom]

TDK, I never said I wasn't aware that numbers had been brought up, I just stated that I didn't know what the relevance of picking the same numbers was in terms of scumyness. Looking back on it, swift does mention the idea behind two identical number picks but the focus quickly changes to bristep not releasing that scum had time to discuss and change numbers and thus my attention must have been on that as the argument was in full-flow when I viewed the thread.

 

And instead of coming up with any relevant defence of yourself, even though you previously claimed you had been completely open [which would mean you've already defended yourself so a constructed defence would surely be a fabricated, clutching at straws defence that you needed a day to think up], you are trying to belittle and discredit me; seems a bit scummy

[swiftstrike]

Right, my actions aren't scummy at all.

 

I believe Bristep made quite a fundamental slip up, and I think Swifty may have come across something by highlighting it.

 

-=The use of language=-

 

I'm going to break this down and give counter language examples to try and wrap up this absolutely ludicrous wagon against me.

 

"I think a nail may have been hit on the head here, not willing to vote yet, need to let the day progress just that touch more, however"

 

Notice the word 'THINK' this clearly highlights a thought process, it does not in any way indicate a clear decision bought from fact, at the moment there is only assumption that could be made from such an early post as Bristep's.

 

He either did what he said, or did what Swiftstrike said. I leaned towards Swiftstrike, because I honestly believe there may have been an early slip there, not the words 'may have been'. Nothing is for definite, hence why I FOS'ed and didnt VOTE.

 

"I think a nail may have been hit on the head here, not willing to vote yet, need to let the day progress just that touch more, however"

 

Yup told you all in that exact post I wasn't willing to vote, this is because of the word THINK being in the first line of the sentance.

 

"I think a nail may have been hit on the head here, not willing to vote yet, need to let the day progress just that touch more, however"

 

I believe the slip 'could' yield a result, but I'm not jumping into a vote at this moment in time

 

What you lot are accusing me of saying is this:

 

"A nail has been hit on the head here, want to vote but I'll wait a wee while, once more have I'll jump on this bad boy"

 

To claim I am actually starting a Wagon is ridiculous, a point has been highlighted by Swift, I think it's an extremely valid point, and in this whole thread so far has been the most incriminating bit of posting, I however am the one advocating the notion of patience, to let the game go on, to see if others slip, to gain ideas and thought from everyone else before snatching at a lynch. It is in fact an anti-wagon that I have started if you truly break it down and look at it.

 

It could be anti-wagoning. It could also be trying to get a wagon going without looking like you're either starting it or boarding it. Keeping a level of deniability is definitely a scum trick. I know it is, because I've done it.

Quoting this as to not miss it this time the reason I addressed the aniti waggoning comment to Chris rather than TDK is that I missed it in TDK post as it was hidden among other stuff.

 

By the way Chris you keep asking why I'm ignoring TDK posting, if you haven't worked out my town read yet it is a shame for you, but I do ignore the waggons that have a number of people pushing them where as when scum I jump those wagons and push them hard.

[tom]

By the way Chris you keep asking why I'm ignoring TDK posting, if you haven't worked out my town read yet it is a shame for you, but I do ignore the waggons that have a number of people pushing them where as when scum I jump those wagons and push them hard.

Double bluff?

[tom]

EBWOP : I'm an idiot, I didn't mean double bluff, just a bluff, as in, you're doing the opposite of what you said you do as scum but is that just to make yourself appear like town when in fact you're scum all along?