The UKFF Betting Topic

[Max Power]

I'll be down there Wednesday/Thursday, and i'm looking forward to it.

 

I respect recent and long term trends Lion, but you only have to look at Katchit's Champion Hurdle win two years ago to show that they can be beaten. Plus, Celestial Halo and Binocular came within a whisker of putting the '5 year olds can't win the Champion' myth to bed.

 

If Dunguib stands up, then he wins. I think its as simple as that. Although if I owned him, i'd be running him in the Champion, as that race has really cut up with the likes of Solwhit and Binny looking doubtful runners, and Zaynar getting turned over. There's no stand out horse in the race imo, and if I were Fenton, i'd seriously think about running him in the Champion. As you say, he's of the age where he should be winning the Champion, as next year he may be injured or worse. I'll oppose the favourite with Get Me Out Of Here, who has experience of the hustle and bustle of a big race, as shown when he hosed up in the Tote Gold Trophy last month.

 

As for the Arkle, I can't have Captain Cee Bee either. Not due to his age, but due to his jumping. He's only ever been put under pressure in a race once, and fell - in Sizing Europe's last race over Christmas. I like Somersby, but I feel that he's not experience enough, having only won an egg and spoon race, and a 4 runner event before Christmas. As Long Run is seemingly RSA Chase bound, i'm happy with Sizing Europe in this. Rated 168 at his peak over hurdles, he should have the natural ability to carry these on his bag and still win easily enough.

 

 

As for the Champion Hurdle? I'll be playing Celestial Halo again. Although not at his best last time out in Ireland, his course for of 122 reads particularly well, and i'm sure the Champion Trainer will have him spot on for this. The biggest danger for me is Starluck, who looked all over the Triumph winner until emptying out after the last fence. Imo, he wasn't a strong enough horse last year, but he looks to have matured this term, and with the Champion Hurdle run on a different course than the Triumph (its half a furlong shorter in distance), he should have the neccessary speed to run well - providing it doesn't piss down and turn into a slog.

 

The Cross Country Race is next, and Garde Champetre should win. End of Chat imo.

 

The William Hill Trophy is always a tricky puzzle to solve. I'll be backing Bensalem. Rated 143 (I think), and there should be huge scope for improvement from this sort of mark. Has run with credit twice behind Diamond Harry, and I imagine him to be incredibly well handicapped.

 

The Mares Hurdle is a straight up match between Quevega and Voler La Vedette. If the ground is on the soft side, then Quevega will be hardy to beat, but, with genuine good conditions, VLV will probably have too much speed.

 

BETS

 

Supreme: Get Me Out Of Here each way.

Arkle: Sizing Europe

Champion: Celestial Halo, Starluck - both each way at double figure prices.

Cross Country: Garde Champetre Nap

William Hill: Bensalem

DN Mares Hurdle: Ground dependant, wither Quevega or Voler La Vedette.

 

 

There we are for Tuesday, I'll put further selections up later. It should be noted that I couldn't pick my nose last year, so i'm either due a winner or two, or i'm shyte and should pack up!!

 

EDIT:

 

There were 5 tips in yesterdays Racing Post when it came to betting at the Festival.

 

1. Stick to the "big guns" in the Championship Races. Nicholls, King, Mullins, Henderson etc generally mop up the big prizes.

2. Experience pays off in Novice events. Horses with 3 previous runs or more fare better in these races.

3. In-experience is not a disaster in handicaps. Horses with few runs are often unexposed, and can be a lot better than their current ratings.

4. Hoses with less than 11st are a must in handicaps.

5. Ignore horses that finished unplaced last time out, in all races. Placed form (at the very least) is a must.

Edited March 10, 2010 by Max Power

[Lion_of_the_Midlands]

Tuesday's picks for me are as follows:

 

Supreme: Get Me Out Of Here. Dunguib for me does not jump well enough and trends wise is the wrong age to win the Supreme. 5 and 6 year olds hold sway in the race and GMOOH would be the same price as Dunguib in any other year so 5 or 6 to 1 is a price that cannot be ignored.

 

Arkle: Riverside Theatre. Both Sizing Europe and Captain Cee Bee are to old to win the Arkle. 1 winning 8 year old or older since 1960. Riverside Theatre won well at Kempton last time, got within 7 lengths of Hurricane Fly at Punchestown last year, beating Champion Hurdle favourite Go Native in the process, and will love the fact that the ground is drying out all the time.

 

William Hill: Down to 3 at the minute. Ogee, The Package, Theatrical Moment. Picked on a variety of trends and will decide which 1 on the day.

 

Champion Hurdle: Go Native. Fits all the trends, been hard to beat all year apart from when beaten first up by Voler Le Vedette. I don't expexct last years first 3 to frame this year.

 

Cross Country: Another Jewel: I know that backing against Enda Bolger is stupider than commenting on the Jamie Bolger case, but he won the PP Hogan race over the banks of Punchestown and is a live threat to Enda's dominance of this race off a low weight.

 

Mares Race: Voler Le Vedette. Saw an interview with Willy Mullins, trainer of Quevega. They were only 50/50 on whether to keep her in training at all. He didn't look confident at all of Quevega's chances. Voler Le Vedette ticks all the right boxes trends wise as well so only sensible bet.

 

Good luck to all of you who have a go tomorrow

[Max Power]

I've had another look at tomorrow's racing:

 

Supreme Novices: I too will be opposing Dunguib, not because I don't think he will win - i'm pretty sure he will, but because Paddy Power are doing a promotion where they will refund all losing bets if Dunguib wins. I've done Get Me Out Of Here.

 

Arkle Chase: Sizing Europe will do for me.

 

William Hill: Bensalem should win easily if he stands up.

 

Champion Hurdle: Good drying ground, should help Go Native and Starluck. At the prices, i'll have Starluck each way.

 

Cross Country: Gard Champetre.

 

Mares Hurdle: Quevega, with VLV to follow her home.

 

Good luck all.

[Glenryck Pilchards]

I have gone for a lucky 15 of Go Native (Champion Hurdle), Finians Rainbow (Novice Hurdle, Tranquil Sea (Ryanair Chase) and Denman (Gold Cup). I have gone 75p e/w (

[CUFC]

Two big bets for me today;

 

Captain Cee Bee

Zaynar

 

I still really rate Zaynar's chances, I think he still would have been the favourite had he not been beaten at Kelso (in a race on awful ground, with a small field and false pace). I think back with conditions to suit today he could go well at 12/1 on Betfair is FAR too big.

[cheetah69uk]

pretty similar to most picks above but i do like SWAY in the last race today 16-1 e/w ive got

[Lion_of_the_Midlands]

Make of this what you will, but a friend of mine who is an accountant, with no sense of humour mind has just rung me up. He has no interest in horses at all but a client of his is a horse dentist who has done some work for Nigel Twiston- Davies. They can't see Khyber Kim not winning today. This sounds like a cock and bull story of the highest order but he is not the sort to make this kind of crazy story up so make of it what you will.

[FUM]

pretty similar to most picks above but i do like SWAY in the last race today 16-1 e/w ive got

 

Got Sway as part of a lucky 15. Also

Edited March 16, 2010 by FUM

[solid gold]

I'm backing dunguib, I just cant see him not winning. Also Blackstair Mountain at 12/1 each way.

 

Paddy power have an offer which gives you your money back if dunguib wins which is great if your into smaller bets as they cap this at

[Max Power]

The Paddy Power thing is capped at

[Baz Windham]

I had a lucky 15 with Get me out of here, Sports Line, Razor Royale and Medermit. Not the best start to the week to say the least, Get me out of here ran a good race though.

 

Bookies have had a great day, but then Cheltenham is always wide open most of the time. Not easy to pick those winners out.

[Lion_of_the_Midlands]

I have had a day of hitting the crossbar. Roll on tomorrow

[JFFC]

Today may have been a skinner for the punters but you can guarentee that one of the 4 days will be the complete opposite. Tommorow i've gone for Presenting Forever (1:40), Weapons Amnesty (2:40), Wishfull Thinking (4:00), Causeway King (4:40).

 

Max Power's 5 tips are good ones to follow, especially in the Championship Races. I always find picking a horse who can stay at least 2 furlongs further then the trip (To get up the hill) and one who has one over shorter (Has the speed to get to the front) are 2 combinations to look for, no point getting to the front if you cant get up the hill.

[Max Power]

4. Hoses with less than 11st are a must in handicaps.

5. Ignore horses that finished unplaced last time out, in all races. Placed form (at the very least) is a must.

 

So Chief Dan George wins the William Hill at 33/1, and I missed the fucker.

 

Today is a lot harder than yesterday, selection to follow.

 

 

EDIT:

 

It has to be good ground horses today, nothing with form on soft or heavy will be fast enough imo. With that in mind, I can't see the Irish doing anything today (with the possible exception of Weapons Amnesty).

 

1:30 - Presenting Forever, Pennek e/w

2:05 - Finian's Rainbow, Manyriverstocross e/w

2:40 - Punchestowns, Weapons Amnesty e/w

3:20 - Master Minded

4:00 - Quantitiveeasing, On Raglan Road e/w

4:40 - Notus De La Tour, Kudu Country e/w

5:15 - Tavern Times

 

Good luck all.

Edited March 17, 2010 by Max Power

[FUM]

Superb, had a tenner each way on Weapons Amnesty.