General Election 2024

[JNLister]

Will write some stuff on polling later, but a quick bit of grounding for context, a point that's been made by several sources including John Curtice:

• If this campaign equals the biggest movement in opinion during a campaign; and
• that movement is towards the Conservatives; and
• the opinion polling equals the biggest error ever in a General election; and
• that error is understating the Conservatives; then
• it'll likely be a hung parliament where there's no mathematical way for the Conservatives to form a government.

[Ulf ist Gut]

5 hours ago, SuperBacon said:

Interesting responses from the "Islington elite" about Jeremy Corbyn here. 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/25/loved-islington-voters-40-year-connection-to-jeremy-corbyn

Of course The Guardian wouldn't publish just people saying they'd vote for him even if everyone did say that.

In my opinion he still absolutely romps home in his seat.

I lived over the road from him during his period as Labour leader (we got the Christmas cards each year, he also took in an Amazon parcel for me once) and either the day after the election or after he stepped down (possibly the same day, I forget), someone was going down the street knocking on doors asking if we'd like to sign a thank you card for his efforts. Given the size of his majority, i'd agree he's got a very good chance of winning, especially with the local Labour party presumably not being overly enthusiastic about canvasing against him and his stance on Gaza in a constituency with decent size Muslim population.   

[JNLister]

Some important deadlines (via Martin Lewis among others):

If you aren't registered to vote (or aren't sure you are) you can do so at https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote until June 18.

If you are a student and live away from "home" you can register in both places. You don't have to decide in advance which constituency to vote in, or to formally choose one, but you are only legally allowed to vote in one (because it's an election to the same body, ie the House of Commons.)

If you want to vote by post, you can apply by June 19 via https://www.gov.uk/apply-postal-vote. You have an automatic right to do this. You must be registered to vote first.

If you want to nominate someone else to vote on your behalf, you can appoint them to be your proxy voter by June 26 via https://www.gov.uk/apply-proxy-vote.

If you vote in person, you'll need valid photo ID. There's a list of acceptable IDs at https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/voting-and-elections/voter-id/accepted-forms-photo-id. If you don't have anything on the list, you've got till June 26 to apply for a special Voter Authority Certificate at https://www.gov.uk/apply-for-photo-id-voter-authority-certificate (different rules apply in Northern Ireland.)

[SuperBacon]

What a hilarious little cunt he is.

Bring back the cane whilst you're at it mate.

Going hard for the "flag shagger young person hater" vote, which is sadly the majority of this country.

[gmoney]

All fucking day with advisers and that's the best they could come up with. 

[JNLister]

First cynics have already pointed out that "serve a year in the British Army or it's unpaid labouring for you" is, let's say, particularly problematic in large parts of Northern Ireland.

[Lion_of_the_Midlands]

The recruiters on the Falls Road might find out how little training those lads and lasses need. 

[FLips]

Like to see them try and enlist me. I’ve had an unprecedented 3 chippies this week and my left knee clicks when I walk up the stairs now.

[Donald J Trump]

19 minutes ago, JNLister said:

First cynics have already pointed out that "serve a year in the British Army or it's unpaid labouring for you" is, let's say, particularly problematic in large parts of Northern Ireland.

Northern Ireland is the garden full of rakes that Sideshow Sunak and his hapless party keep stumbling into. I don't expect they've thought much further ahead than tomorrow's papers, and they'll be desperate to take centre stage for the first Sunday morning interview circuit of the campaign, which they've probably secured in all fairness. I shudder to think what kind of desperate shite they're going to throw at the wall over the next few weeks. 

[Keith Houchen]

2 minutes ago, Donald J Trump said:

I shudder to think what kind of desperate shite they're going to throw at the wall over the next few weeks. 

And the ones that stick will be co opted by Starmer!

[SuperBacon]

16 minutes ago, FLips said:

Like to see them try and enlist me. I’ve had an unprecedented 3 chippies this week and my left knee clicks when I walk up the stairs now.

Ha, mine crunches these days rather than click. Beat that!

[Keith Houchen]

National service for all you double lunged pricks. 

[Donald J Trump]

Comrade Sunak has already made his position on leadswingers clear. If people who are clinically dead can be declared fit for work, you lot are going to the front lines with everyone else. No exceptions. 

[Just Some Guy]

9 hours ago, JNLister said:

First cynics have already pointed out that "serve a year in the British Army or it's unpaid labouring for you" is, let's say, particularly problematic in large parts of Northern Ireland.

Historic question about National Service. NI was part of the UK when National Service was abolished, so what was the Nationalist Communities attitude before that?

[Lion_of_the_Midlands]

17 minutes ago, Just Some Guy said:

Historic question about National Service. NI was part of the UK when National Service was abolished, so what was the Nationalist Communities attitude before that?

I don't think that National Service applied to NI back in the day JSG. Ireland was neutral in WWII and Churchill is rumoured to have said that introducing conscription to Northern Ireland was more trouble than it was worth.