UFC 157: 'Rousey vs Carmouche'

[Magnum Milano]

Stuck a fiver on Carmouche at 8/1 with Ladbrokes.

 

I've only won once betting on MMA (a five fight acca on the Diaz/Condit card), but really rooting for Liz tonight and hope she pulls it off.

[wandshogun09]

He's right really. Machida doesn't throw combinations often, he does that Karate thing of darting in, landing a strike and getting out of range. But it does make him harder to hit because he's so fuciing good at it.

 

I get what Bas is saying, the bullrush strategy worked for Shogun in their second fight. But Shogun had a smart approach, he had Machida guessing and expecting kicks and then he came with punches. Shogun's timing beat Machida's speed in both fights. I don't think Hendo's striking is varied enough for him to pull it off like Shogun did. Also, he's very flat footed and not very fast on his feet. And he's 40, and hasn't fought in 15 months. It's just a bad match for Hendo I reckon.

 

I loved Hendo's attitude when recently being asked if Machida was a bad match for him...

 

No. I'm a bad match for everyone.

 

He's always got that chance of landing a big shot, but Machida should win this. I think Hendo's aggression will play right into Machida's counter attacking style.

[wandshogun09]

Who's everyone picking then? I'm having..

 

Rousey - Sub - Round 1

 

I hope I'm wrong and it turns out to be an incredible back and forth war but it's hard to see past Rousey by armbar. As good a fighter as Carmouche is, I probably rate Tate and Kaufman higher and they couldn't stop the armbar. You never know, one thing about Carmouche is she's fearless and will take risks. Could work against her but it could also pay off if she lands some wild flying knee or something. I see her lasting longer than 8 of Ronda's 9 opponents but getting caught late in round 1.

 

The thing is, with Ronda's striking training looking so good on Primetime, you have to wonder if Ronda will fall into that old trap of trying to test her new toys out and standing longer than necessary, which is a risky game to play.

 

Also went for;

 

Machida - KO/TKO - Round 2

Faber - Dec

Neer - Dec

Kos - Dec

 

And Big Lavar via 1st round cocksmack to the face of Schaub.

[Supremo]

The thing is, with Ronda's striking training looking so good on Primetime, you have to wonder if Ronda will fall into that old trap of trying to test her new toys out and standing longer than necessary, which is a risky game to play.

Yeah, it's a huge risk, but it's definitely something I wouldn't be surprised to see. Almost all the training we've seen from her has been striking, so I think there's a very real possibility that she'll turn into Damian Maia, abandon the ground game in an attempt to showcase her new skills, and then pay accordingly. However, if she sticks with what she's good at then I can't see anything other than a first round armbar victory.

[The Natural]

It's been a massive success already. The only thing left is to hope the fights deliver.

 

Everyone made weight, apart from Nah-Shon Burrell who came in over 5lbs heavy which is ridiculous. Also, if he loses, I'd guess he's pretty much guaranteed that he's a gonner. He couldn't have picked a worse time to miss weight, than the week Dana announces they need to trim100 fighters from the roster.

 

Chiesa came in at 156.2 but nothing was said. What's the deal there? I know .2 of a pound is fuck all but he is technically overweight. But it wasn't acknowledged.

 

Machida came in light again at 202. I said Machida on points since the fight was announced but I've got a feeling in my gut that this might be the night Hendo finally looks old. A combo of the layoff, injuries and Machida's speed and movement, I just have a feeling he's gonna make Hendo look bad.

 

I hope I'm wrong and we get a war but it's my gut feeling. I think we might see Hendo KO'd for the first time tonight

 

Machida, KO/TKO, Round 2.

 

I've a feeling this show is going to deliver...then again I had a shitter in predictions last weeek.

 

mmatorch.com said Nah-Shon Burrell was added to the card on a week's notice so that might save him.

 

I wonder how Hendo will be with the layoff, age and injuries. Machida has a unique style and could be the first to stop Hendo with strikes. I don't think it's going to be tonight.

 

Who's everyone picking then? I'm having..

 

Rousey, Sub, R1

Henderson, TKO, R2

Faber, Dec

McGee, Dec

Lawler, KO, R2 (heart overruling head prediction, love to see Koscheck starched).

[jimufctna24]

My predictions match Wand's

 

Other than

 

I have Court on points and Schaub by Submisssion. Oh and Machida on points not TKO

[Supremo]

Nah-Shon Burrell was added to the card on a week's notice so that might save him. .

I doubt it. The same thing happened with DeMarques Johnson in Nottingham. He took a fight on short notice, failed to make weight, lost and was then cut. Joe Silva explained here that taking a short notice fight isn't doing them a favour if you can't make weight and they treat it just as severely, if not more. If he loses tonight he's definitely fucked.

[The Natural]

Nah-Shon Burrell was added to the card on a week's notice so that might save him. .

I doubt it. The same thing happened with DeMarques Johnson in Nottingham. He took a fight on short notice, failed to make weight, lost and was then cut. Joe Silva explained here that taking a short notice fight isn't doing them a favour if you can't make weight and they treat it just as severely, if not more. If he loses tonight he's definitely fucked.

 

I agree he's more likely going to get cut. UFC really don't like fighters not making weight, understandably so.

[wandshogun09]

Its the timing of it as well. They've always been tough on guys who come in heavy but right now, they're looking for excuses to cut you. If you miss weight in the current climate you are basically waving a big fuck off neon sign to Joe Silva saying 'Release Me'. If he loses tonight he might as well start phoning Bjork in the hopes of a spot in Bellator because Joe Silva won't fuck around in knocking up his pink slip.

 

He has to win tonight. And win impressively if he wants to stay in the UFC.

[hbk4life]

My picks tonight are:

 

Rousey via sub R1

Machida via TKO/KO R2

Faber Dec

McGee Dec

Kos via TKO R3

 

I'm really rooting for Carmouche tonight. The primetime episodes have been some of the best they have ever done. I've nothing against Rousey, but it would be an incredible story for Carmouche, the UFC did an amazing job with the primetime show and have made me really care about both fighters.

 

Like I said before, I can't see past Machida domination tonight unfortunately. I'd rather see Machida take on Jones right enough, but I always support Hendo so tonight will be no different.

 

I think Kos will grind away on the ground against Lawler and finish him late in the fight. I'd love to see Lawler knock him out though.

[The Natural]

Chael Sonnen confident Dan Henderson will win...

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZj189MZp6c...player_embedded

[wandshogun09]

The Facebook prelims are starting in less than 5 minutes. You can watch them on Facebook (obviously), or here;

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dpvkbCgm0k

 

EDIT - Chael Sonnen says if Hendo loses tonight he will lick Rashad Evans' shoe;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=playe...p;v=iZj189MZp6c

 

The fuck?

[The Natural]

The Facebook prelims are starting in less than 5 minutes. You can watch them on Facebook (obviously), or here;

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dpvkbCgm0k

 

EDIT - Chael Sonnen says if Hendo loses tonight he will lick Rashad Evans' shoe;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=playe...p;v=iZj189MZp6c

 

The fuck?

 

I posted the Chael video above your post.

 

I'll get my thoughts together and talk about the show ASAP.

[wandshogun09]

What a fuck of a show that was.

 

Rousey vs Carmouche

This went almost perfectly for the UFC. The Ronda show continues but Carmouche came out of it looking strong and fought like a fucking lion. She really gave Ronda a hard night's work. Loved this fight and it's kicked off the women's division with a bang.

 

I almost shit a brick when Liz got that choke/neck crank. How fucking mental would that be if she actually submitted Ronda? Or choked her unconscious? Even when Ronda got in position for the armbar, Liz fought it to the end.

 

 

Great fight. Ronda keeps her record going. Now 10 fights, 10 first round armbars.

 

Machida vs Hendo

This wasn't a great fight but I still enjoyed it. You don't really get those kind of crazy fights out of Machida so I wasn't expecting it. It went almost how I originally thought. I'm glad Hendo didn't get KOd and he actually did a bit better than I expected considering the layoff. He landed a few pretty good shots and I didn't expect him to score a takedown either.

 

It was a little bit closer than I expected but I defo had Machida winning. I thought edged rounds 1 and 2. I gave Hendo the 3rd but I don't think he did enough to win the decision.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Machida didn't get the title shot based off this fight though. This is the kind of fight Dana doesn't usually like. Maybe Gustafsson will get the next crack if he beats Mousasi. I'd like to see Machida vs Jones 2 though. I still think Machida has a better shot than anyone else at 205.

 

Faber vs Menjivar

Jesus Christ. Faber is in a weird position. He loses to the very top guys like Cruz and Barao, but he absolutely wrecks the rest. The way he destroyed Brian Bowles, choked Mizugaki limp and now ran through Menjivar...these are really good fighters. I'm a big fan of Menjivar, he's crafty and he's a really good grappler so this shocked me. Faber looked phenomenal.

 

 

What they do with him next is anyone's guess. If Cruz can't come back for the Summer, maybe we get Faber vs Barao 2 again later this year. Seems too soon in a way but what else is there?

 

McGee vs Neer

I really enjoyed this. McGee is a guy I've never really been that arsed about. The first time I really got into his fights was the Philippou fight, and this was another really good one. His striking looked better than ever in round 1. I thought Neer was done after the body shots but he bounced back in the 2nd and I thought my pick of Neer by decision was coming true. McGee did well to shut Neer down in the 3rd. Good scrappy fight.

 

Lawler vs Koscheck

Fucking yes! Really didn't expect this. I disagree with Rogan calling early stoppage. Yeah Kos wasn't out cold but why let it get to that stage when it's clear he's done. He went limp after the first big left, blank look on his face, wasn't defending, wasn't even looking towards Lawler. He ate a few really hard shots and just lay there. The ref could have let it go a bit longer but Kos looked pretty fucked to me, the last punch or two seemed to wake him back up but by then it was over.

 

 

 

Chuffed for Lawler. Always been a fan. He was doing a good job of not being held down as well before the stoppage. I think the cut to 170 has forced some of the old Miletich work ethic out of Lawler again. Can't wait to see him back in there.

 

Schaub vs Lavar

Shit fight. Smart tactics by Schaub because had he stood with Lavar, I have no doubt he'd have been flattened, again. So it was a must win, but fuck me was it dull to watch.

 

Chiesa vs Kuivanen

Good little fight here, Chiesa looks ridiculous though. Kuivanen was winning the stand up comfortably but once it hit the ground Chiesa proved to be on another level. The way he set up the choke, switching arms back and forth, was beautiful to watch.

 

Bermudez vs Grice

FUCK! This is my current FOTY so far. Unbelievable, batshit fight. Loved every second from the Bermudez mount at the start where he fired off about 1,000 punches, to Grice lifting him off his feet with that massive left hook, to the brutalitiy in the 3rd where I couldn't believe Grice was still awake much less throwing haymakers back. Insanity. If this doesn't get FOTN its a big bunch of sweaty bollocks.

 

 

No doubt there will be a 7 page debate that it was 'Just Bleed' and 'mongs swinging' etc but I don't give a flying fuck personally. It entertained me massively which is all I want when I'm watching MMA.

 

Oh yeah, I love Bermudez's Roberto Duran look as well.

 

Robertson vs Jardine

This should get Sub of the Night for me. I bet Ronda gets it though because I don't think Dana wants to fuck Kenny Robertson, like he clearly wants to with Ronda. Robertson should get SOTN though, that leg lock was fantastic and it's never been done before in MMA (I don't think).

 

 

Robertson looks like a fucking handful on the ground.

 

Burrell vs Villefort

This was a cracking fight to kick the night off with. Burrell wins and saves his job with this. He needed a showing like this. A finish would have been better obviously but he fought well and the fight was a crowd pleaser and that will go a long way in washing the bad taste left by him missing weight away. I'm looking forward to seeing both of these guys again. That's assuming they don't cut Villefort, which I think they won't, but who the fuck knows.

 

EDIT - Dana just said at the presser that Machida will still get the title shot at the winner of Jones vs Chael. Good stuff.

 

Great quote from Dana at the press conference on Liz Carmouche;

 

I guarantee you this, after this fight, Liz Carmouche will have a fucking kitchen table. And a couch. And whatever other shit she wants.

 

Dana said the winner of Tate/Zingano is likely to be next for Ronda.

 

Awards were...

 

Fight Of The Night - Bermudez vs Grice

KO Of The Night - Robbie Lawler

Sub Of The Night - Kenny Robertson

 

$50K each.

[The Natural]

Great quote from Dana at the press conference on Liz Carmouche;

 

I guarantee you this, after this fight, Liz Carmouche will have a fucking kitchen table. And a couch. And whatever other shit she wants.

 

Dana said the winner of Tate/Zingano is likely to be next for Ronda.

 

Awards were...

 

Fight Of The Night - Bermudez vs Grice

KO Of The Night - Robbie Lawler

Sub Of The Night - Kenny Robertson

 

$50K each.

 

Deservedly so for Liz Carmouche. C'mon on Miesha. I like Tate after watching her last two fights and I really want Rousey/Tate II. UFC got all three bonuses right.

 

I said I had a feeling this card would deliver and it did with two of the best fights this year. In the opener, Robbie Lawler stopped Josh Koscheck with strikes in the first round. This was a fine opener. Court McGee beat Josh Neer by decision, I scored it 29-28 to McGee. Urijah Faber put on a performance submitting Ivan Menjivar with a standing Rear Naked Choke. Faber