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Chunk

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Posts posted by Chunk

  1. On 11/7/2019 at 2:01 PM, JNLister said:

    You shouldn't obsessively check polls and projections every day, but if you do, this is probably the best one-stop way:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nUxnVJIFRo9A806IHtkTcd_Cxn1hO4P98nHCnBgeMFI/edit#gid=586083410

    It's done by 326 Politics and is updated each night. It averages out the latest poll figures then tries to forecast what that could mean for each seat. If you scroll across the main tab, there's all sorts of juicy stuff like chances of winning the seat if the election was today and a simple "leans/likely/safe" ranking next to the result from last time so you can spot where seat changes are likely.

    The last tab on the spreadsheet tracks the daily projected seat totals, which might be a smoother way to track "how the campaign is going" than trying to track voting intention, particularly when it comes to where the votes make a difference.

    (Note this is only valid while it continues to show the Tory vote share ticking down each day. The moment it shows them gaining, it's clearly voodoo junk.)

    Hasn't been updated for a while but, interestingly, is showing the gap between Labour and Conservatives closing.

  2. So we've had the story about Johnson ducking the Sky debate rumbling along for a couple of weeks and more recently him not agreeing an interview with Andrew Neil. Meanwhile Corbyn seems to have happily agreed to everything.

    The Telegraph headline this morning? You guessed it:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/27/jeremy-corbyn-dodges-tv-debates-disastrous-bbc-interview/

    Newspapers in this country are corrupt to the point of being dangerous. It's not even funny anymore. 

  3. 3 hours ago, David said:

    Reminds me of the old schooldays where you'd egg on a well-meaning but dim classmate to eat Play Doh under the promise that everyone was going to do it as well, only to watch him scoff the stuff and then laugh at him and say "are you mad? Why the fuck would I eat Play Doh, you fool!"

    If you were a right nob that's what you did, yeah.

  4. 5 hours ago, Factotum said:

    I know the Tory campaign has been pretty awful, but the Lib Dems one is rights up there

    That's my impression too. Corbyn refusing to state his Brexit position in the ITV debate aside, Labour seem to have done everything right. The Tories have had one fuck up after another. And yet the polls show the Tories gaining all the time. I just can't reconcile these two things in my head.

  5. Well the explanation is that it opens up business opportunities in areas of the country that businesses would normally overlook as fast broadband is a pre requisite to their operation. Also that broadband supports modern forms of communication ... be that nerds like us in on a forum or single parents families with low incomes booking GP appointments.

    I'm sure you already know this though. 

  6. 2 minutes ago, David said:

    Not only are you days late with your quote, but you've completely missed my point

    That's the beauty of the quote feature. Means you instantly know what I'm referring to if I don't have the chance to read every post on the forum every day.

    Quote

    I said that a redo of the vote if a party campaigning on that won the election was perfectly fine. Overturning the original vote and just stopping the process isn't.

    It didn't read that clear the first time. Whatever though ... who is suggesting they would just scrap the first vote without a second referendum?

  7. On 11/2/2019 at 4:04 PM, David said:

    I find that ridiculous to be honest. A political party wanting to just scrap the result of a democratic referendum and overturn it? Ironic somewhat that the definition of "Democrat" is "an advocate or supporter of democracy."

    They should rename the party the Liberal Dictators. That's actually a cool name, I'd vote for that party. They just do whatever the fuck they want and don't bother consulting the uneducated, Daily Mail reading plebs.

    How can a referendum ever be undemocratic? 2nd, 3rd, 90th time around ... a referendum is democratic by definition!

    Years have passed since the first referendum. Years we've spent trying to honour the result of that referendum. Enough time has passed and enough water is under the bridge to justify a second one in my opinion. It strikes me that the 'undemocratic' argument comes from people afraid of a different result the second time around. If people still want to leave, then we'll get that result again. The worst case scenario of a second referendum is that we get the result that the people want.

  8. 4 hours ago, David said:

    Remember the days when a McGregor press conference was highly anticipated and drew more viewers than most actual UFC shows? I didn't even know he was making an announcement this time around. Never saw it mentioned anywhere.

    Isn't that because it wasn't mentioned anywhere? A McGregor press conference to announce a fight is still doing huge numbers - I think we all know that. 

  9. 13 hours ago, JNLister said:

    The vote Johnson won was for the Second Reading of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, which is what approves the EU deal and puts it into British law. Second Reading is where you vote to approve the general principles and move on to more debate.

    It's not a vote to make it law. Instead you go on to committee stage where MPs can propose and vote on amendments to it. You then have a final vote on the bill (including any amendments) called Third Reading. It then goes through the same process in the Lords and if it gets the thumbs up there it becomes law.

    The "majority" is that 329 MPs have voted for the general principle of accepting the deal. Given those who voted against today are almost certainly not going to approve the final bill, Johnson needs to get through the amendment process to the final bill without losing the support of 15 or more MPs. That's possible but very tricky given different groups have very different ideas about what amendments they'd like to see and what other people's amendments they'd accept.

    That's all on hold anyway thanks to losing the second vote, which was on the proposed timetable of getting to Third Reading in the Commons by the end of Thursday, which was objectively a ludicrous proposition. In theory Johnson now has to come back with a new proposed timetable that allows longer for debate. In practice the EU is going to grant the extension and he's not going to get the bill passed by October 31st, so he's almost certainly going to try again for a general election and campaign on needing a strong majority to pass the deal.

    Thanks for this. It's a better, clearer, more straightforward explanation than I've been able to find anywhere else online.

  10. On 9/16/2019 at 1:59 AM, PowerButchi said:

    I really don't get the cuurent hardon for beer which tastes like Milkshake or generally overhopped or overly flavoured and shit. I had a Beer52 box as it was on;y 4.99 P&P (as opposed to their normally about 20 quid for 8 or 10 cans) and it was all rank shit that's beer which wants to taste like anything else other than beer. I'm looking at you mainly Tiny Rebel. Salopian for example has many cracking pints with hints of grapefruit (Hoptwister), lemon (lemon dream) and general flora (Motherfucking Oracle. The finest ale on earth for me), but it's hints of it, not smacking you in the face with a critus fruit or another flavouring. This current "Let's make beer in annoying looking packaging which doesn't taste anything like beer" phase is doing my swede in. If I want to get pissed on Lilt I'll just buy a 2l bottle of it and pour vodka into each glass I have.

     

    And don't even get me started on the race to the bottom to push up ABV to silly amounts.

    I think we're actually passed that arms race, to be honest. A much bigger trend is for low alcohol and no alcohol beer (or drinks in general).

    I completely agree otherwise. The reality is that a lot of 'new' craft beer drinkers don't like the taste beer, so a beer flavoured with all sorts of artificial flavourings is right up their street. I'm sure that'll end as they either convert to beer-proper or move on to the next trend. That's my opinion anyway.

    Thankfully we're starting to see some new breweries specialising in making (and crucially, perfecting) classic styles. A core range of classics is a much more exciting prospect to me than an endless run of one-offs and collaborations.

  11. 35 minutes ago, Lord-Mountevans said:

    So why is Corbyn pushing for a "People's Vote" when the majority of his people have already voted for Brexit in the first place?

    Because it means he doesn't have to decide which direction the Labour party will head in? Labour isolate some of their support if they back remain and they isolate some of their support if they back leave. So sitting on the fence has been Corbyn's tactic until now. Putting it to a peoples vote allows him to continue doing that. Until, say the Greens or Lib Dems who have everything to gain by aggressively backing remain and a second referendum.

  12. Some odd selection choices if you ask me. I think Woakes has had an OK series. Batted well in the first test and made a thirty in the second. Ok he's only taken 9 wickets but he's looked good at times. To dump him and give Curran a go would be one thing but to dump him, overlook Curran and bring in Overton is just odd to me.

    I also don't like the idea of swapping Denly and Roy around. Denly has clearly struggled with the step up to Test cricket but he's worked hard and shown some grit and determination at number 4. That should be rewarded with another go. He doesn't open the batting in County Cricket for Kent. What's going to be the result of asking him to open for England? He'll struggle and will get dropped. Roy has come into the side and been asked to do a job and hasn't been able to do it. When we're looking for a number 4 then give him a call. Zak Crawley and Dominic Sibley have had decent seasons opening the batting in Championship cricket and I'd much rather see them be give the chance than to see someone else played out of position.

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