Max Power Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I've just wrote a massive reply that ended up with me tipping Bubba Watson @ 50s for The Masters and Cappa Bleu, Killyglen and Chicago Grey for the Grand National, but it fucking dissapeared and I refuse to retype it. It also said that Kauto Star pulled a muscle at the water jump in the Gold Cup. Case closed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Egg Shen Posted March 31, 2012 Paid Members Share Posted March 31, 2012 Stylin' any football tips for today? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pryko Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 I've backed a Bolton and Stoke double today. Not overly confident about it, but I fancy Stoke to beat Wigan and as a Bolton fan I'm hoping we can carry on piling the misery on at Wolves today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah69uk Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Newcastle were 11-5 today to beat liverpool,had a little treble with celtic and spurs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jambo Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Newcastle were 11-5 today to beat liverpool,had a little treble with celtic and spurs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stylin_and_Profilin Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Nice one Jambo! Next weekend is only time in the year that I really enjoy watching Golf. Everything about the Masters is beautiful. Thinking of putting on a small spread, any tips fellas? Stuey i'm going a write up on the golf for someone, it'll be finished by tomorrow and i'll stick it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jambo Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Nice one Jambo! Next weekend is only time in the year that I really enjoy watching Golf. Everything about the Masters is beautiful. Thinking of putting on a small spread, any tips fellas? Stuey i'm going a write up on the golf for someone, it'll be finished by tomorrow and i'll stick it up. Only got 1 game wrong yesterday, Hibs Vs Caley, had the draw, pretty gutted, took me from my 40/1 acca. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stylin_and_Profilin Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 (edited) Next weekend is only time in the year that I really enjoy watching Golf. Everything about the Masters is beautiful. Thinking of putting on a small spread, any tips fellas? US Masters 2012 April was always one of the best months of the year growing up. Two weeks off school, easter eggs galore, the football season reaching it’s final stages and stacks of sport on TV to keep you entertained in the form of the world snooker championships and, of course, the US Masters. Everything about this tournament oozes class. Even those who aren’t ardent followers of the game of golf will admit to be drawn in by the drama unfolding from the stunning setting of Augusta national in Georgia. Indeed with it’s timing in the month of April, and, it’s location not changing year to year as with other major events, it is the highlight of the sporting calendar for many. This Thursday will mark the start of the 76th Masters with a prize fund just over 8 millions US dollars on offer for the 90+ invitees who are expected to compete. As always with any live sporting event these days there are stacks of markets available for ante-post and in-play markets. Picking a winner in any event of this nature can be notoriously difficult but here we’ll try to point in the right direction and hopefully net some profits along the way !! The Favourites Firstly i am going to have a quick run through those who the bookmakers have priced up as some of the leading five contenders for the famous green jacket. As would be expected the bookies all had Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy pretty much neck and neck in the run up to this event. Tiger was as high as 7/1 as recently as a couple of weeks ago however a stunning five shot victory in last weeks PGA Tour event at Bay Hill has seen that price slashed to 9/2 at best. McIlroy opted to take a few weeks away from competitive play in the run up to Augusta and is now tucked in a close second favourite, best priced 11/2. Watching Woods storm down the 18th last Sunday on route to lifting the trophy was a throw back to a decade ago. Massive crowds flocking behind him on the fairway as he cut a fear some figure in the unmistakable ‘final day’ attire of red polo shirt and black trousers and looking somewhat like the Tiger of old. Undoubtedly he is up there but there are still question marks over his fitness – somewhat put to rest by coming through his recent grueling pre-masters schedule relatively unscathed – and more so the short game. Even with the victory there has still been some glaring misses on the greens in recent weeks which he’d have holed with his eyes closed in days gone by and similar lapses at Augusta will be severely punished. Last weeks win will have given the bookies major food for thought, there is no denying that, but equally I would anticipate it would get a lot of money going on him from people assuming that he is back to his old self. Whilst there is no disputing he’s well on track I still wouldn’t be too thrilled at such a short price. That being said I don’t think any other sportsman in recent memory has given the bookmakers as much of a battering – possibly with the exception of Phil Taylor and Roger Federer – so they will be praying he doesn’t add to his four previous Masters titles. Last weeks results also meant the odds drifting slightly for another Masters stalwart Phil Mickelson. The California native’s record at Augusta is simply staggering; finishing outside the top ten only twice since 1999. In addition to his three previous victories this run includes two 3rd place finishes and another two 5th place spots. Something about the course just seems to click with Mickelson and he absolutely loves playing Augusta. A lot of people see him as the biggest challenger to Tiger even ahead of McIlroy but the young Ulsterman’s scintillating performance at last years US Open means he gets the nod from the bookmakers with Mickelson sitting at 12/1; somewhat generous given his record at Augusta even if recent form has been a little erratic. Making up the rest of the top five are two Englishmen in the form of Luke Donald and Lee Westwood. There has been little between these two in recent years in terms of rankings; both have been very consistent and going neck and neck for the coveted world #1 spot. The bookies cannot split them either with each man around the 16/1 bracket. Donald represents better value of the two in my opinion as he has the superior short game. Even if he does miss a target, which is inevitable at some stage with the tricky pin positions, he has the touch and craft around the greens to recover which is cemented by the fact he had both the best putting statistics in last years Masters itself (on route to a forth place finish) and also the lowest putting average of anyone on the PGA Tour for season 2011. Tee to green Westwood is as good as anyone in the field and although his chipping has improved remarkably over the last two or three seasons I still think putting lets him down ever so slightly at the really crucial times. Best Of The Rest Since Tigers fall from grace looking beyond the main contenders can often be the way to go as far as the majors are concerned. Aside from Mickelsons win two years ago the majority of Masters champions in recent years have came from out of nowhere to claim victory. Examples of this include Zach Johnson who was in excess of 250/1 prior to his 2007 triumph and last years winner Charl Schwartzel started off at 150/1 in some quarters, whilst other recent champions Immelman and Cabrera were also well into the three figure region in the ante-post markets. Keeping this in mind there is definitely some substance in considering some of the bigger priced names especially for those of us who are dabbling in the smaller stakes market as even nicking an E/W place at such high odds can yield good returns. Augusta will play in excess of 7,400 yards for this weeks tournament. Whilst that is long even by today’s standards to you and me it’s nothing too extraordinary in terms of distance for a major championship course to the pro’s. Further more it’s not a venue that traditionally favours those who, in the words of John Daly, can “Grip it and rip it”. American galleries love following the guys who can smash it a country mile and the US currently boast the “Big Five” as they call it with Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson, JB Holmes, Robert Garrigus and Garry Woodland making up the quintet. All will be teeing up on Thursday with the exception of Holmes although that is somewhat made up for the fact that big hitting Alvaro Quiros will be flying the flag as the European tours premiere long ball specialist. There is no denying that these guys are fantastic to watch and whilst the sheer distance they carry defies belief at times – all the Par 5’s at Augusta should be comfortably in reach within two strokes for each man – the potential for too many wayward shots on other parts of the course makes me shy away from considering them as serious contenders. It’s not rocket science to realise that to prosper on the fiendish greens of Augusta you need a short game which will stand up to scrutiny. Mickelson and Donald as mentioned earlier are as good as anyone from within 100 yards and if they do miss their first blow on the green a second slip up rarely follows (Donald had a streak of 450+ consecutive holes without a three putt on last years tour). On a similar vain it’s also good to look towards those who get a high GIR percentage (providing the opportunity to make the putts in the first place) and also those who, if they do find trouble, can effectively and regularly get it up and down from off the green whether it be sand, rough or Augusta’s infamous pine needle tree lines. People without much Masters experience tend to fair quite poorly. There are some exceptions, such as Jason Day, but generally I’d be looking to those who’ve played a few tournaments and experienced all the nasty surprises Augusta can throw at you. With all that in mind I’m going to put together half a dozen or so picks at longer odds who I believe can be in the mix come Sunday evening. Super Six Although he is probably best remembered for a cruel four putt on the 72nd hole of the 2009 BMW Championship which cost him the title Brandt Snedeker takes my eye at 80/1 for this years event. The 2007 PGA Tour rookie of the year is making his fifth appearance at the Masters and includes a 3rd place finish in his previous outings. Coming off an excellent 2011 season he has three top ten finishes to his name so far this year and is another who fairs well in the scrambling statistics department which can prove pivotal at Augusta. Another young gun who i’ve taken a shine to in recent times is Webb Simpson. Admittedly it totally contradicts what I said earlier about experience counting – this will be his debut appearance – however his recent rise to prominence has been extremely impressive. Two wins within a fortnight on the main tour midway through last season underpinned with some excellent GIR statistics and another very impressive figure of hitting in excess of sixty rounds at <=69 on last years tour which takes some doing. The form hasn’t dipped in the 2012 season so far and at around 66/1 with the major firms I think he offers a good outside chance. Moving to the other end of the spectrum is the vastly experienced Steve Stricker. The 45 year old from Wisconsin seemed to drop of the face of the golfing planet in the early 00’s but has made an amazing return to form in recent times capturing no less than nine titles on the main tour and twice winning ‘Comeback Player Of The Year’ award. His ball striking off the fairway is rock solid and is probably second only to Mickelson in my opinion as the best American putter. Stricker’s name features in the top ten in no less than three categories on this seasons tour statistics thus far (GIR %, Scrambling % and Scoring Average). This coupled with eleven previous visits to August means he could be the man to look out for at 55/1. Sticking with the theme of veterans my next player to focus on is John Senden. The Aussie has a sole PGA tour title to his name but has been on a very steady run of form in the early part of this season. The form book can often go out the window where Majors are concerned but Senden has bee there or there abouts in 2012 making every cut thus far on route to three top ten finishes. An excellent ball striker, he ticks most of the same boxes as Stricker does on the key stats and at 200/1 it’s an each way bet I’ll be taking. Continuing with the trend of experience another one of my picks is the immensely likeable figure of KJ Choi. This years event will see the South Korean notch up his tenth tournament appearance and he will be keen to follow up on two stellar performances in the last two Masters where he finished inside the top ten on each occasion. This season so far hasn’t seen anything to write home about by his usual high standards but he has the accuracy with his irons and the all important short game to stand up to the test over four days. Another one in the 66/1 range, KJ should go well on a course which he seems to favour. Finally the last of my picks is again someone who knows Augusta like the back of his hand. I’m trying hard not to let my heart rule my head but there is no way I couldn’t give a mention to Fred Couples. Like Mickelson and Woods there just seems to be that ‘X’ factor that Freddy has with Augusta. His record speaks for itself and this will mark 20 years since he won the green jacket here. Moving away from the nostalgia and sentiment for a moment this is not a bet with clouded judgment. Couples has been troubled with back problems which have bothered him for years however in recent time he seems to be a lot more comfortable on the course and has been dividing his time latterly with regular appearances on the champions tour with the odd fleeting appearance at full tour events; and showing he can still hang with the best of them. The Rolls Royce swing still looks as good now as it’s ever done and at 52 he’s still as fierce a competitor as ever. Priced up at 150/1 can he roll back the years and produce some more magic? I certainly hope so. In Closing….. Traditionally speaking most of the firms would always offer the standard quarter odds paying four places on an each way finish. In more recent years this has been extended to five places and in previous Majors’ it is not uncommon to find the odd firm offering SIX places on the each way markets. BoyleSports are usually good for this going from previous experience however you may have to sacrifice a small drop in odds in comparison to the other firms for the safety net of the extra placing so keep that in mind. Also be sure to be on the lookout for any specials coming up during the week. PaddyPower will probably be offering some sort of covering incentive against the favourites so keep a close eye on their site for any money back specials involving McIlroy or Woods in the days leading up to tee-off time. If you are considering smaller stakes E/W bets for value or simply to make it more exciting to watch then hopefully this has provided some insight. Granted there are some long odds in the six names above but stranger things have happened and as eluded to previously it’s not unheard of for someone to come out of nowhere. Alternatively if you are thinking of going on one of the short priced outright to win from the favourites mentioned I would still tend to lean towards Phil Mickelson @ 12/1. The Masters is traditionally an event for the front runners; you will see the odd capitulation (Greg Norman, Rory McIlroy) however not many people will claw it back after a poor opening couple of rounds such is the unforgiving nature of Augusta so it’s always worth contemplating holding back and then looking at the in-running markets after 36 holes or so to gauge who’s really on top of their game. It promises to make for great viewing on television so fingers crossed for all those having a punt and roll on Thursday night !! Steve Stricker – 55/1 Webb Simpson – 66/1 KJ Choi – 66/1 Brandt Snedeker – 80/1 Fred Couples – 150/1 John Senden – 200/1 Odds all correct as of writing on 02/04/2012 Latest live odds available here: http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/us-masters/winner Steven Edited April 3, 2012 by Stylin_and_Profilin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Bus Surfer Posted April 4, 2012 Paid Members Share Posted April 4, 2012 Thanks for that mate, much appreciated! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Power Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 I'll second that, a superb write up. I'e taken advantage of the Hills offer this morning, they've pushed McIlroy out to 9s. I'm also on Watson @ 40s, Scott @ 33s and a sentimental flutter on Jiminez @ 150s. They're all with Paddy Power who are paying 6 places each way and also refund the win part of the bet if Tiger wins. Main bet Rory though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stylin_and_Profilin Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 Thanks guys, nice to get feedback. It's a bit of a lottery in reality but at least trying to do it methodically will, hopefully, get us somewhere. It really is amazing just how many stats the US Tour compiles to be honest. Frightening stuff ! Par Three tournamet abandoned due to thunder storms today, hopefully not a sign of things to come. Mickelson reckons it'll be a birdie fest due to the inclement weather recently slowing down the greens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurryAngel Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 If that's the case it may be wise to go for Luke Donald as he has possibly the best short game in golf at the moment. I've done 3 e/w bets for Adam Scott, Justin Rose and K.J Choi at Paddy Power. If Tiger wins (which I really hope he does) then they refund losing bets which is nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFFC Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 I'm on Mickleson, you just cant ignore his course record at the Masters and a good prep last week, im on at 12's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stylin_and_Profilin Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Lines for tomorrow: Brentford Charlton Dundee United Alloa Trebles and four fold Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Power Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Freddy Couples eh Stylin?? You've no chance with that....hang on..... Marvellous tipping, and plenty there with chances. I don't know if you're thinking of laying some off, but it may be worth it as he surely can't see this home, can he? Big Bubba is still in the running, as is Jiminez. And my main man Rory is waiting in the wings. An exciting weekend in the offing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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