UFC 298: Volkanovski vs Topuria - Feb 17 ??

[wandshogun09]

After a slow start to the year, NOW we’re talking. Off to California we go…

PPV MAIN CARD
Alexander Volkanovski©️vs Ilia Topuria - Featherweight Title

Robert Whittaker vs Paulo Costa 

Geoff Neal vs Ian Garry

Merab Dvalishvili vs Henry Cejudo 

Anthony Hernandez vs Roman Kopylov 

ESPN PRELIMS 
Amanda Lemos vs Mackenzie Dern 

Marcos Rogerio De Lima vs Junior Tafa 

Rinya Nakamura vs Carlos Vera 

Zhang Mingyang vs Brendson Ribeiro

ESPN+/FIGHT PASS PRELIMS
Danny Barlow vs Josh Quinlan

Val Woodburn vs Oban Elliott

Andrea Lee vs Miranda Maverick  

 

That’s more like it! Love this card. Feel like it’s kind of snuck up on us a bit with all the focus being on 299 and 300, but this is quality. Hopefully what’s there now stays intact. Before I could even start this thread, there’d already been a few pullouts. Fingers crossed that’s it now.

 

 

Alexander Volkanovski vs Ilia Topuria is an absolute beast of a fight. I feel like it’s kind of getting lost in all the hype around UFC 299 and definitely the speculation surrounding UFC 300. But as a stand-alone fight, this genuinely might be the best on the schedule at the moment for me. You’ve got the dominant champion who’s turned back all challengers and he’s gonna be standing across from the most dangerous and promising of the new breed of Featherweights. I honestly believe Topuria is the best 145er to come along since Volk rose to the top of the division. It’s such a cool fight. But the x-factor is the timing of it.

Can’t really say much more about Volkanovski that we haven’t all said a hundred times already. One of greatest of all time and definitely one of the best fighters walking the planet right now. He’s put together an incredible career. The 3 wins over Max Holloway alone is crazy enough. Then you add in wins over Jose Aldo, Brian Ortega, Yair Rodriguez, Korean Zombie, Chad Mendes. It’s been a hell of a run so far. With all that said though, his 2023 didn’t go as he’d have liked. He went 1-2 last year but the 2 losses were up at Lightweight against the champ Islam Makhachev. When you go up in weight chasing greatness, well in Volk’s case even more greatness, it always comes with risk. And it wasn’t like there was anything to be ashamed of. The first fight in Perth in February was tremendous and by far one of the best fights of the year. He went back down to 145 in July to defend his title there, and completely outclassed Yair Rodriguez, stopping him in 3 rounds. Then in October came the Makhachev rematch.

And Volk got headkicked into oblivion in 3 minutes. Obviously that fight came about under far from ideal circumstances. Volk had stepped in on less than 2 weeks notice, replacing Charles Oliveira who’d suffered a bad cut in training. So coming in last minute, and going up in weight, against a fighter the calibre of Makhachev was always gonna be an uphill battle. It doesn’t take away from his legacy and standing at Featherweight but it definitely puts a little dent in that bulletproof aura he’d had going into that fight. Before Oliveira dropped out, Volkanovski was all set to defend his Featherweight strap against Topuria.

The two came face-to-face immediately following Volk mauling Yair. Nothing much happened but it got the old juices flowing. But then the opportunity to get that rematch with Makhachev presented itself and Volk jumped all over it. I understand why but it turned out to be a gamble that wasn’t really worth taking. Makhachev vs Volk 1 was so good and so close, many felt Volk should’ve got the decision. So a rematch seemed inevitable anyway down the line. But you really need a full camp for a fight like that. And now Volk’s 0-2 down and, especially with the way the rematch ended, a third fight is gonna be a hard sell. For now anyway. Volk’s gonna have to remind everyone who he is. Turning back around and taking on an animal like Topuria, if he wins it’s gonna go a long way towards doing just that.

Topuria’s been threatening to become something special for a while now. He’s Georgian/Spanish and undefeated at 14-0 with 12 of those wins coming inside the distance. He fought for the Cage Warriors and Brave promotions early in his career and made his UFC debut in late 2020 at just 8-0. I remember it well. It was right in the thick of the COVID/no fans in attendance days and Topuria had stepped in on short notice against Youssef Zalal. He won on points and I remember being very impressed right away with his grappling and also his pace and conditioning given the lack of prep time. He followed that up by smashing Damon Jackson to bits with his boxing in a round. So in just 2 fights, he’d already shown he had serious skills in the grappling and striking. From there he squashed the usually tricky Ryan Hall in a round. Then he ate a brutal flush headkick from Jai Herbert in London and came back to spark him out cold. So another question answered on his chin and heart. He took on Bryce Mitchell in December 2022 in a battle of unbeaten prospects and wrecked him. Beat Bryce up on the feet and surprised many by bossing the grappling as well, en route to submitting him in the second round. Then in his last fight in June, he battered Josh Emmett over 5 rounds and took a lopsided decision. Seriously, one judge scored it 50-42, that’s how one sided it was. And it also answered the ‘can he go 5 rounds’ question. He looked great in that fight, gave Emmett a real boxing lesson.

Will this become reality? Topuria seems pretty confident…

“For me it’s going to be an easy fight. I will knock you out in the first round. You’re old. It’s time to retire. It’s time to move on and make way for the new era of Topuria.” - Ilia Topuria

Seen a bit of backlash to his outspokenness. He is coming off a bit cocky but I kind of like the attitude. I think the pushback is mostly because he’s aiming it at Volk who’s so liked and respected. But I like that Topuria’s showing a bit more edge and personality. To be honest, after the last couple of rancid PPV build ups, it’s refreshing just to see someone talk a bit of shit about what they’re looking to do in the actual fight rather than going the personal attacks route. The only concern about this for me is he’s been going back and forth with O’Malley and talking about fighting McGregor in Spain and all manner of wild stuff. I’m sure he’s dialled in on the task at hand but you can’t be getting distracted with what’s coming next when you’ve got a Volkanovski shaped hurdle to get past first.

Volk’s definitely taken note of Topuria’s comments…

“He’s got to be confident. There’s confidence and then there’s being delusional. I don’t mind the bloke but even the things he says, what he’s saying doesn’t really make sense. This Ilia fight? Not a challenge. I don’t need to pretend this is some crazy challenge to get me motivated. The way he talks, that’s motivation.”

“He thinks he’s the man, let’s see if he is. I’m ready for the best version that shows up on February 17th. So let’s see what we have in store. I’m gonna be ready either way. I see he’s confident. He’s a cocky, confident young dude. Let’s see if he can really bring it because I know I’m gonna and I can’t wait to show him levels.” - Alexander Volkanovski

I don’t think there’s any real beef between them but there’s clearly a bit of needle there. Both highly confident, both mega competitive, both see themselves as the big dog in the yard. I love this shit. Much prefer this to the desperate shite fight hype we’ve been fed lately. No need to fake anything or go overboard attacking family members and stuff here. The real good shit doesn’t need all that extra stuff. This is just 2 badass fighters gearing up to get locked in a cage with the gold on the line. Doesn’t need anything else. Inject it into my veins.

How do we see this going? I’m leaning towards Volk because he’s Volk. He’s definitely got the stronger and deeper resume, he’s got more experience against high level opposition, more experience in 5 round fights, he’s shown time and time again that he’s one of the most skilled fighters in the game. But…like I touched on at the beginning, the timing of this fight makes it very interesting. He’s 35 years old now. Not ancient by any stretch and he’s really shown no signs of slowing down. But 35 is a very good innings for a lighter weight fighter. Then you factor in that he’s coming off a vicious knockout loss in October and won’t have had much time off at all before diving back into another camp for this fight. I don’t know. Volk’s an amazing fighter and it’s worth noting he’s still undefeated at Featherweight. I’m picking him but if there was ever a time that seemed ideal to maybe possibly catch him, and if there was ever a fighter that seemed equipped to do the job…for me it’s now and it’s Topuria. It’s truly a fascinating fight. The toughest one available for Volk in my opinion. But if he can beat Topuria like he’s been beating all these other contenders at 145, man, it’ll be a hell of a way to rehab his image after that last fight and he’ll have pretty much legitimately cleaned out the whole division.

 

Robert Whittaker vs Paulo Costa is supposed to be the co-main. I’ll believe it when I see it. You just can’t rely on Costa to show up and I think at this point we’ve all been conditioned to expect him not to. This particular fight has already been attempted twice and fell through both times on Costa’s side. They were originally scheduled to headline a Fight Night in April 2021, then they were matched up for UFC 284 in February last year. Both times Costa cocked things up. Maybe it’ll be third time lucky but I’m not holding my breath or anything.

If the fight does go ahead, I’m really hoping Whittaker can get back to winning ways. We haven’t seen him since that shock defeat to Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 290 in July. That one’s probably gonna be retconned as time goes on and people will pretend they called it. But it was a shocker on the night. Even if you picked DDP to win, no-one expected him to batter Whittaker the way he did. After years of Whittaker being the nailed on #2 guy at Middleweight behind Adesanya, the division got flipped on its head last year and now Whittaker’s kind of in this weird no man’s land where he’s already pretty much fought everyone at 185 but a move down to 170 or up to 205 don’t seem likely either. And Costa, I’ll be honest, I’m just over it. If he turns up cool but I don’t really care if he never fights again. We last saw him beating up a shot to bits Luke Rockhold in August 2022. He then spent 2023 pulling out of fights with Whittaker and Ikram Aliskerov. If he actually fights, this should be fun. I’m sceptical though. Wish we’d have got that Whittaker vs Usman fight we were on about before here instead. Who knows? When Costa inevitably pulls out again, maybe Usman will step in and replace him again like he did against Khamzat. We’ll see. Don’t wanna be negative but I just can’t get up for Costa fights anymore because I’m always just waiting for the cancellation.

 

Geoff Neal vs Ian Garry is ***WAND’S ONE TO WATCH*** this time and I suspect it’ll be one of the more talked about and heated fights on the card by the time fight week rolls around. There’s bad blood here. Garry seems to be beefing with everyone but this Neal thing has been brewing for a while now. They were supposed to fight at UFC 292 in Boston last August but Neal had to pull out. Garry beat Neil Magny that night instead but before Neal withdrew, it was getting ugly.

Wearing a shirt with your opponent’s mugshot on it is never gonna go down well, is it? Garry was talking shit when Neal pulled out of their fight as well. And Neal’s had months to sit and think about it. You know he’s gonna be extra motivated and looking to knock Garry’s head off. Beyond all that shite, it’s a really good fight in its own right. Garry’s ranked #10 now so he’s climbing, Neal’s ranked #8. Garry’s undefeated at 13-0, Neal’s 15-5. But despite having a few losses, Neal’s the toughest and most dangerous test yet for Garry, I reckon. He’s got wins over Belal Muhammad and Santiago Ponzinibbio, brutally stopped Vicente Luque and gave Shavkat Rakhmonov his hardest fight yet. And it’s not like Garry’s unhittable. The likes of Song Kenan have tagged him and had him wobbled. It’s a fight Garry needs to win if he’s gonna back up his trash talk and live up to what he says he is. He’s looked good so far but this is definitely a risky one for him. Should be an exciting fight.

 

Merab Dvalishvili vs Henry Cejudo is a great fight. It might not end up being the most thrilling fight to watch, or I dont know maybe it will. But either way, I’m very interested to see how this one plays out and how their styles match up. It’s kind of a weird one in a way, timing-wise. At the time I’m typing this, Merab is ranked #2 in the Bantamweight division but the only guy ahead of him is his buddy and teammate Aljamain Sterling who’s moving up to Featherweight. Merab was the guy who should’ve got the next title shot, in my opinion. Definitely more deserving than Chito Vera but I kind of get why they went the route they did and Merab is coming off nearly a year on the shelf now. Cejudo’s currently ranked #3 despite only fighting once in the last 3 years. Yeah it’s a bit of an odd one. But purely as a clash of styles, I’m really looking forward to it.

Merab’s the guy for me at 135 now though. Not the biggest fan of his style but I just get the feeling he’s the champion in waiting and it’s just a matter of time until he gets the belt. I’ve predicted him to be champ by the end of the year in that ‘MMA Champions’ prediction thread we’ve got on here and I stand by that. He’s beat Jose Aldo, he dominated Petr Yan, it’s just been lack of activity holding him back lately. And his teammate Aljo always being in the title mix. That’s no longer an obstacle now so if Merab can win this fight, I can’t really see how they can deny him a title shot later in the year. But as much as we all like to poke fun at Cejudo, he’s nobody’s pushover. We saw evidence of that when he came back off 3 years on the shelf and took Sterling to a close split decision. I mean, he’s an Olympic gold medalist! You can’t overlook a guy with that kind of pedigree. And even in his MMA career he’s got wins over the likes of Demetrious Johnson, Dominick Cruz and TJ Dillashaw. He’s high level. But again, lack of activity. And he turns 37 just before this fight. The sand timer is running empty. But he showed against Aljo he’s still got something left in the tank. And while I think Merab’s gonna be wearing the strap by year’s end, I actually think this is potentially a tougher fight for him style-wise than either O’Malley or Chito. Good stuff this.

 

Anthony Hernandez vs Roman Kopylov opens up the PPV. Was supposed to be Hernandez against Ikram Aliskerov but Aliskerov withdrew and here we are. A fine replacement in Kopylov. I like this just as much, if not more than the original matchup. I’m not a great fan of the Middleweight division these days but there are some fun fights to be made and this is one of them. ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez is 30 years old and 11-2-0-1 with 9 finishes. He’s currently on a nice 4 fight winning streak and has finished Marc-Andre Barriault and Edmen Shahbazyan in his last 2 fights. He also had that shock submission win over Rodolfo Vieira a couple of years ago, subbed the ‘Iron Turtle’ in 2019 and won a 5 round decision against Brendan Allen on a LFA card in 2018. He’s squeezed some good stuff into his relatively short career so far.

Kopylov’s the boy though. I’ve done a complete 180 on him over the last few years. Maybe I’m remembering wrong but I could swear he had a really boring fight or two when he first signed with the UFC. He’s been great to watch more recently though. He’s won his last 4 in a row now, stopped all 4 of them and he’s doing it in nasty fashion. Battered Punahele Soriano, flatlined Claudio Ribeiro with a brutal headkick and in his last fight he crushed Josh Fremd with a disgusting body kick and body punches. He’s 12-2 now with 11 knockouts. Not sure he goes much further than this but whatever. He’s a heavy hitter and I think him and ‘Fluffy’ should make for some fireworks.

 

Amanda Lemos vs Mackenzie Dern is a decent fight. Lemos was supposed to fight Tatiana Suarez here but Suarez is injured. Again. Hopefully it’s not the start of another horror show of injuries for her. As replacements go, again, they’ve done a good job here. I’d rather have seen Suarez in there, making her case for a title shot, but fair play to Dern for stepping in. She’s coming off getting chinned by Jessica Andrade on the MSG card in November. Got dropped multiple times in that one and then stopped in the second round. Jumping back in here against Lemos, who’s also a power puncher, is a very risky move. Dern’s had a really hot and cold run of results lately and she really can’t afford to be losing another one here. But she must fancy it and I can kind of see why. Lemos has shown vulnerability in the grappling in the past and, given Dern’s strengths there, I can definitely see a potential clear path to victory for her. But Lemos is a hard hitter and she’s tough. She got totally dominated by Zhang Weili in their title fight in August, just a miserable 25 minutes for Lemos. But despite the dominance and lopsidedness of it, even Zhang wasn’t able to get her out of there. She won’t go away easily and if Dern gets careless on the feet, Lemos certainly has the capability to make her pay. Not an amazing fight but not a bad one at all. Especially as a substitute.

 

Marcos Rogerio De Lima vs Junior Tafa is an eleventh hour switch. Was supposed to be De Lima against Justin Tafa but Justin’s dropped out literally on the eve of the show. Who steps in? Little brother Junior! Not to be a conspiracy theorist but…did they plan this? ? Probably not but it does have the feel of the old pro wrestling switcheroo. Anyway, nothing changes for me here. Can’t stand De Lima. I was hoping he’d get chinned by Justin, still hoping he gets chinned by Junior. I rate Junior more than Justin but the short notice could hinder him. Then again, Junior had a fight coming up in March anyway and no doubt would’ve been in camp with Justin prepping him for this one. And it’s Fattyweight. Not like he’s had to do a last minute weight cut.

 

Rinya Nakamura vs Carlos Vera will be worth checking out just for Nakamura. He’s gotta be one of the better Japanese prospects the UFC have had on the books in years. Him and Tatsuro Taira have looked the business so far. Nakamura is 28 years old, unbeaten at 8-0 with 6 finishes and got in through that Road To UFC thing. Smoked Toshiomi Kazama with a 33 second KO in his debut, then utterly schooled Fernie Garcia to a one way traffic decision in August. Early days, obviously, but very impressive so far. He showed knockout power in his debut and got to show off his stellar wrestling abilities in the Garcia fight. Looks a right handful. Great addition to an already fantastic Bantamweight division. Vera’s making his Octagon debut here. He’s 36 years old and 11-3 with 6 finishes. He’s fought in LFA and Fury FC and was on the last TUF as part of Team McGregor. Apparently he got eliminated in the opening round by Brad Katona. Can’t see this ending well for him.

 

Zhang Mingyang vs Brendson Ribeiro mightn’t stand out at first glance. It’s both guys UFC debut and it’s probably not gonna get much attention on a card like this. But from the little bit of homework I’ve done, I definitely think this might be worth tuning in early for…

That’s how Mingyang’s last fight ended. Fuck me. It was on the Road To UFC and I remember seeing the clip of the knockout all over social media at the time. Only thing is, that was June 2022. There’s been a lot of delays getting his debut sorted for whatever reason. He’s 25 years old and he’s 16-6 with all 16 wins being first round finishes. He doesn’t mess around. He’s coming into this fight on a 9 fight win streak. So yeah, he’s ended his last 9 fights in the first round. Ribeiro is 27 with a record of 15-5-0-1 and, again, all his wins came inside the distance. He’s coming off a first round KO victory on DWCS in September. Yeah, this sounds like a ‘must see’ prelim.

 

Danny Barlow vs Josh Quinlan doesn’t sound like a bad fight at all. Neither are exactly well known and I’ve never seen Barlow fight but, for a Fight Pass prelim, this sounds decent. Barlow’s making his debut here and is coming in undefeated at 7-0, 5 finishes. He’s ended his last few fights in a round, including a quick TKO win on DWCS in September. Quinlan’s 6-1-0-1 with all 6 wins being finishes. He had a really strong UFC debut in 2022, knocking Jason Witt out cold in 2 minutes. He lost a decision to Trey Waters in his last fight in April though.

 

Val Woodburn vs Oban Elliott is a bit of a blind spot for me. I’ve only seen Woodburn once, it was his UFC debut back in July and it lasted a whopping 38 seconds. He came in on short notice and got fed to Bo Nickal. Didn’t end well. He got sparked quick. In fairness though, he was undefeated going in. He’s 7-1 now with 5 knockouts. And this is Oban Elliott’s first Octagon appearance. He’s Welsh and he’s 9-2 with 5 finishes. He’s a name I’ve definitely heard a fair bit and he fought in Cage Warriors his whole career before picking up a win on DWCS over the summer. I might’ve seen him fight but I can’t even remember. My Cage Warriors viewing has been very sporadic over the years. I’ll definitely give this a go though.

 

Andrea Lee vs Miranda Maverick is nothing special. I’ve enjoyed a couple of Maverick’s fights, to be fair. And she seems quite likeable. The way she handled Priscila Cachoeira being a dirty little cheating shite in their fight in July was cool. In the fight and her comments after. She’s nothing amazing as a fighter but she’s not typically boring either from what I’ve seen. Lee’s pretty crap though. At this point she’s 13-8 and coming off 3 straight losses. She’s 2-6 in her last 8. Maverick should really be winning this one. If you’re losing to Lee then it’s really not looking good for the future.

 

 

Going back to Cali ☀️ Finally a card worth getting excited about! 

Edited February 16 by wandshogun09

[Kfogg1991]

Mate this is a fucking ppv. 

I didn't think last weekend was terrible but it just didn't have enough on it to make it properly feel like a UFC pay per view but fuck me this is exactly what you want and is very very strong.

I genuinely can't explain how much I want volk to get a decent victory here after the Islam fight previously and seeing him so visibly torn up and struggling with his mental health afterwards really did punch me in the heart. I am desperate for him to get a strong win and bring his confidence and self back where it should be.

[Egg Shen]

Kopylov being added against Hernandez is a lovely touch. Echo what you've said wand. man is a beast, definitely one of my favorite unsung stars of recent undercards.

[wandshogun09]

 

[NeverYield]

I've always liked watching Volk fight, quality fighter.

Didn't like reading all those 'I was drinking' heavily quotes from him and all that after his loss though. 

[WeeAl]

3 hours ago, wandshogun09 said:

 

? That was cracking. Well done that man. Hope he is back to form here against Topuria. I'm not ready for his time at the top to be over yet. 

[wandshogun09]

Volk’s story about his daughter ?

 

[Bruce85]

6 hours ago, wandshogun09 said:

Volk’s story about his daughter ?

 

That’s amazing! Volk really seems like such a top bloke. 
 

The polls are pretty one sided for this one, I’ve gone Volk, Bobby Knuckles, and I can’t remember who I picked out of Merab or Cejudo but not confident in any of the results! 

[Egg Shen]

Mad how 1 bad performance completely changes perceptions. Id have had Volk a good favorite in this if not for that second Islam fight, but im sitting at 50/50 here, I just cant really pick a winner.

Lots have been made of Volks issues pre-Makhachev II and given his team id like to think he has everything in order for this, but you just never know. Then you have Topuria talking like this isnt even going to be close and I find myself starting to believe him. Who knows!?

Topuria's confidence borders on delusion but I dont know if hes just playing the game or not. Im getting badguy movie vibes from the fella.

[wandshogun09]

Getting close now. 

[WeeAl]

And I'm about to scud it, but. . . Paulo Costa hasn't pulled out yet? Still time. Hope Whittaker's fall back opponent is in the sauna. 

[wandshogun09]

37 minutes ago, WeeAl said:

And I'm about to scud it, but. . . Paulo Costa hasn't pulled out yet? Still time. Hope Whittaker's fall back opponent is in the sauna. 

Costa’s replacement is usually Gastelum or Usman so hopefully they’ve both kept their diaries clear just incase. 

[Cousin Jim Bob]

What were the other Costa pullouts and fights falling apart other than the Whittaker ones ?

 

I'm not defending him because I'm pretty certain he has and it is a lot, its just my MMA memory is mush nowadays. Its a bit of a shame as he seemed an exciting fighter at one point.

Edited February 14 by Cousin Jim Bob

[wandshogun09]

58 minutes ago, Cousin Jim Bob said:

What were the other Costa pullouts and fights falling apart other than the Whittaker ones ?

This is his entire UFC career;

OK, not all of them were his fault, like the Aliskerov fight was scrapped because they shuffled the card and switched to Costa vs Chimaev. But just look at that. Especially from 2020 onwards. Some he pulled out of citing injury, some illness, some just ‘unknown reasons’ and he used the ‘the fight was never signed’ line a couple of times. Which, I’m not gonna fully doubt him on because we know the UFC have jumped the gun announcing fights before they’re actually finalised in the past. But when Costa does it, I don’t know, he plays silly beggars so much I find it hard to take any of his excuses/reasons seriously. And of course there was the time he rocked up on fight week for a Middleweight fight with Vettori and he was about 25lbs overweight and it had to be changed to a Light Heavyweight fight. He’s a clown. Exciting fighter yeah…when he shows up. But you just can’t rely on him. 

[Cousin Jim Bob]

Yeah sorry I was not trying to defend him. I've just lost touch a lot the last few years and know from your write ups I knew he is a problem but was interested how bad it was.