UFC 296: Edwards vs Covington - Dec 16 🇺🇸

[wandshogun09]

Last UFC card of 2023. Back on PPV. Back in Vegas.

PPV MAIN CARD
Leon Edwards©️vs Colby Covington - Welterweight Title 

Alexandre Pantoja©️vs Brandon Royval - Flyweight Title 

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Wonderboy Thompson 

Tony Ferguson vs Paddy Pimblett

Josh Emmett vs Bryce Mitchell  

ESPN PRELIMS
Alonzo Menifield vs Dustin Jacoby

Irene Aldana vs Karol Rosa

Cody Garbrandt vs Brian Kelleher 

Casey O’Neill vs Ariane Lipski  

ESPN+/FIGHT PASS PRELIMS 
Tagir Ulanbekov vs Cody Durden

Andre Fili vs Lucas Almeida

Martin Buday vs Shamil Gaziev  

 

Stacked like T&A era Trish Stratus! How much of this card actually stays intact is anyone’s guess but we can hope, right? Glass half full and all that. On paper, this is one of the most loaded cards of the year. There’ll no doubt be a load of pullouts but they’re at least trying to close out 2023 with a bang. As always, not the confirmed final bout order but I’ll update it as we go.

 

Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington is our main event and the last fight of 2023 for the UFC. It’s a big fight but it’s also a weird one given Covington’s inactivity. He’s really done fuck all to earn this title shot but whatever. It’s happening now. And purely as a matchup of styles, it is kind of interesting. To be honest, at this point I just wanna see Edwards back in there.

The champ is back. Still feels kind of surreal and we’re well over a year removed from that crazy night in Salt Lake City. As good a fighter as he is, Leon Edwards wasn’t ever the guy I imagined would be the one to end the reign of Kamaru Usman. Then of course, the way the actual fight itself played out is gonna go down as one of the most incredible wins in UFC history. Easily the greatest win ever by a British fighter.

A devastating headkick KO, deep into the 5th round of a fight he was about to lose on the scorecards. And against Kamaru Usman, who I considered the second best Welterweight of all time behind Georges St Pierre. An incredible night. The fact Leon then came back at UFC 286 in March, in front of a rabid home crowd in London, and solidified himself as champion in the trilogy decider with Usman, just fully cemented him as the new King of 170.

Completely erased all doubt and silenced any hint of talk about him being a ‘one hit wonder’ or that legendary headkick being a ‘fluke’ or ‘lucky’. That stuff was obviously bollocks anyway but Edwards actually putting a stamp on the trilogy and going down as 2-1 over Usman in the record books was huge. A special night in London. I think I said it at the time but, while Leon’s championship run (however long it lasts) will always be mostly remembered for that headkick heard around the MMA world, I think his performance in their third fight in London might’ve actually been the best of his career to date overall. Whether it was him finally having that huge crowd support bringing another level out of him, or the confidence coming off knocking Usman out and winning the belt or what. I felt like Leon Edwards just had a bit more of a swagger to him that night. It was like he’d actually levelled up.

Immediately after the fight ended, during Leon’s post-fight interview, talked turned to a potential next challenger who was in attendance at the O2…

Yep. Colby Covington made the trip over. After a year on the sidelines doing nothing. He bobbed back up above the water, like a proper foul shite that just won’t flush. Daniel Cormier asked Leon about the two possibly fighting, Leon dismissed him, Colby was shouting something indecipherable from the crowd and that was that. But it was clear the UFC were pushing that as the next fight. The fact Cormier brought it up straight away in the cage after the fight tells you all you need to know. He’d have been directed to do that. For some reason, the UFC seem hell bent on forcing these Covington title shots. The talk after the show centred mostly around Leon vs Colby as well. And initially, Leon seemed against it. Rightly saying Colby had done fuck all to warrant a crack at the gold. The problem was, he was saying he wanted to defend against Jorge Masvidal of all people. I got why Leon would wanna get some closure there but if we’re saying Covington doesn’t deserve a title shot (and he doesn’t), Masvidal deserves it even less!

But yeah, this prick’s back. Whether we like it or not. Of course there’s a section of the fanbase that loves the twat. I honestly could’ve done without ever seeing him again. He hasn’t fought since beating Masvidal on points back in March 2022. So it’ll be coming up on 2 years of inactivity for him by the time the Octagon door slams shut here. He’s 2-2 in his last 4 and those 2 losses were failed title shots. Yet here we are again. He did weigh in as the official backup in London incase Edwards vs Usman 3 fell apart. But apart from that, he’d been on a milk carton for the best part of 2 years. Now he’s resurfaced and he’s trying to babyface us…

“I’ve already made the promise. I’m going to win that undisputed title on December 16th and I’m going to bring that title back to the UK and I’m going to defend it there for those people because they deserve a show ‘cause they’re electric” - Colby Covington

The thing with Covington is, after all these years he’s been in the UFC, it still doesn’t even feel like we really know how good he actually is. For the longest time the consensus opinion and mostly the accepted narrative was that he was the nailed on second best Welterweight in the world behind Usman. But looking back, what was it actually based on? He had those two close title fights with Usman…but he ultimately lost both. Aside from that, all his biggest and best wins don’t really hold up to scrutiny. It’s all been wins over 35-40 year olds on the decline. He beat a 37 year old Jorge Masvidal on the verge of retirement, a Tyron Woodley who was on his arse career-wise, a past his best Robbie Lawler in the middle of a losing streak, Demian Maia in the middle of a losing streak. The most impressive win on his resume to me is probably Rafael Dos Anjos. And even then, RDA was a Lightweight who ended up going 1-4 at 170 before dropping back down in weight. And despite this, I recall RDA giving him a fairly tough time in spells on the way to losing the decision. Looking back, while Covington is no bum and his conditioning, relentlessness and pace is to be admired, his record really doesn’t hold up. I’m not even sure where to rank him because he hasn’t fought any of the top Welterweights in their prime, aside from Usman. And yeah, he went 0-2 there. There was a fair amount of talk of him fighting Khamzat Chimaev at one point, that fizzled out. There were rumours of him facing Belal Muhammad earlier this year, that went nowhere. There’s no reason why a Gilbert Burns fight shouldn’t have happened by now. Other than Colby’s just sat on the bench for 2 years. Seems like any time he’s been even loosely linked to a fight against an actual top Welterweight who’s on form, he vanishes. Then gets handed another title shot.

For all my criticism of Covington and being a bit baffled as to why he’s getting this fight, I do actually think it’s an interesting clash of styles. People might look at it and simplify it as ‘well Edwards is 2-1 over Usman and Covington went 0-2 against Usman’ and I get it. But it doesn’t work like that, does it? And while I can’t really imagine what Covington can do to Edwards that Usman couldn’t do, the one thing that might make this intriguing is Colby’s frantic pace. It’s easy to look at Covington as just a lesser version of Usman but while Covington certainly doesn’t carry the power of Usman, he’s good at pushing the pace and using volume to make up for the lack of pop on his punches. Usman can be a bit more methodical and we saw that play right into Leon’s game in their last fight. I don’t think we’ll get that here. Colby’s main attribute is his cardio. He’s not even that good a striker. But he just keeps throwing those little annoying strikes and he’s got the gas tank to keep that up for 25 minutes, he nicks a lot of rounds just by being the busier man. And Leon’s had a tendency to coast and take a backwards step at times. He gave away rounds to Usman in both their title fights that way. In that sense it’ll be interesting to see how Leon responds to Colby’s pressure. I hope he addresses that and has answers for it. On the flipside, maybe Leon backing up and conceding ground at times against Usman was because he respected the power in Usman’s hands. I don’t think Covington’s little flurries will have that same effect so maybe Leon will feel confident to walk Colby down more in this one. When all’s said and done, I just hope Leon leaves with the gold still around his waist. With the O’Malley and Strickland unexpected title wins this year, the last thing we need is fucking Covington completing the turd trifecta of title holders by winning the strap at 170.

 

Alexandre Pantoja vs Brandon Royval 2 co-mains for all the marbles at Flyweight. Love this fight and I’ve got to admit, it’s quite refreshing. As much as I’m a fan of both Brandon Moreno and Deiveson Figueiredo, no title picture has felt more like Groundhog Day than in the Flyweight division over the last few years. In fact, you have to go back to January 2019 to find a Flyweight title fight that didn’t feature either Moreno or Figgy! Don’t get me wrong, great fights, but at some point you wanna see some different names and faces in the mix, don’t you? You can have too much of a good thing. As much as I love a nice steak, if I had it 4 nights a week I’d by crying out for some chicken or…anything else by the 5th night. So although this is also a rematch, it actually feels like a breath of fresh air…

Pantoja is making the first defence of his newly won title here. Coming in off a split decision victory over Brandon Moreno at UFC 290 back in July. It was a fucking fantastic fight. I said on here after that show that 290 was probably my favourite UFC card of all time overall. Top to bottom it was just outstanding. It had so many great moments, big finishes, surprises, the perfect sendoff for Robbie Lawler etc. And on a card like that, Pantoja vs Moreno was the FOTN. That says it all really. To stand out on a card like that is a testament to what a tremendous scrap it really was. I’m gonna have to revisit that fight soon but, from memory, unless I’m overlooking something obvious, it’s still probably my #2 on the FOTY list behind Makhachev vs Volkanovski 1. Awesome fight. Pantoja had gone under the radar a bit for years, despite clearly having Moreno’s number in their 2 previous fights - on TUF in 2016 and on the prelims of a UFC Fight Night in Chile in 2018. This was win number 3 for him over Moreno but that didn’t stop Dana talking about doing yet another immediate rematch in the aftermath of 290! Jesus wept. Again, it was a brilliant fight. Despite Pantoja sweeping him 2-0 officially (3-0 if we count TUF), it was a great enough fight and a close enough fight that I wouldn’t be against seeing it again. At some point. But why does it always have to be immediate re-runs? In the end, they’ve gone with a different rematch. Not sure why they changed direction, maybe Moreno’s injured. Either way, I’m glad they’ve gone this route.

Happy to see Royval getting his opportunity. He’s not exactly had the most consistent run of results in the UFC but he’s definitely been consistent in terms of delivering excitement bell to bell. He’s ace. He’s 15-6 now with 13 of his wins coming inside the distance. He fought his way up through WSOF (now PFL), Combate Americas and had a run in LFA which saw him become their champion in 2019. In 2020 he made his UFC debut and immediately got on my radar. His first 2 fights in the UFC he submitted Tim Elliott and Kai Kara-France and banked FOTN bonuses for both. Quite an introduction to the big stage! He lost his next couple of fights but has since rebounded with 3 straight wins over Rogerio Bontorin, Matt Schnell and Matheus Nicolau. The KO against Nicolau back in April was a beauty as well…

Have it! Oh yeah, I glossed over it there but those 2 UFC losses? They were against none other than Moreno and Pantoja. The Moreno fight only went a round and I remember it being a corker while it lasted but unfortunately Royval suffered an injury and got TKO’d swiftly from there. The Pantoja loss though…

That one I’m hazy on but I know for a fact I saw it. It went down on the undercard of the Cannonier vs Gastelum fight back in August 2021 and Pantoja got the submission in the second round. Going back to the thread for that card on here, I was raving about the fight and had it as my FOTN apparently. I’ll definitely be rewatching and reviewing that one in here before this rematch. Despite not being able to really remember the fight, you can’t go wrong with Pantoja vs Royval. Then or now. It’s gonna be quality this. I fancy another Pantoja win. I just think he’s got more tools in his locker and more ways to win. But Royval’s a mad little bastard and he’ll be game and well up for this. He’s the type of fighter who’s gonna throw caution to the wind and you can never count a guy like that out. Big fan of both but I’d rather see Pantoja retain here. Just because he worked so hard to get to this point and was almost the forgotten man while Moreno and Figgy kept trading the belt back and forth. I’d like to see Pantoja go on a bit of a run with the gold now. Needless to say, I’m very much looking forward to this. Even on a card as loaded as this, it’s a fight that pretty much sticks out like a sore thumb as your most likely show stealer.

 

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Wonderboy Thompson is a fascinating pairing. Like with any Wonderboy fight, I’m not sure quite what to expect or how it’s gonna look. You never know how his style is gonna mesh with his opponent. But…I’m on the Shavkat bandwagon and I’ve just got a strong feeling that this isn’t gonna end well for Wonderboy. Maybe I’m overrating Shavkat, maybe I’m underrating ol’ Wonderman. But when I think about this fight, I just can’t picture it being a story that has a happy ending for him.

Yeah I’m a believer in this bastard. He was the first ever Kazakh fighter to grace the Octagon and he’s been an absolute handful so far. 29 years old and undefeated at 17-0 with 17 finishes. He went 12-0 and won and defended the M-1 belt before the UFC came calling. Made his UFC debut on the Khabib vs Gaethje undercard in October 2020, same night Khabib retired. He’s gone 5-0 in the UFC since. Terrorised the likes of Alex Oliveira, Michel Prazeres and Carlston Harris before getting the step up against Neil Magny last year. The guy who’s usually the perennial litmus test for Welterweights coming up turned out to be not much of a test for Shavkat at all. He dominated and submitted Magny with ease and in such a calm manner, it was quite scary. In March this year he got his second proper test…

He choked Geoff Neal at UFC 285 in the FOTN. It wasn’t all plain sailing though. Finally, we got to see Shavkat in a firefight. Shavkat got him out of there in the third round but Neal really went for it, landed some heavy shots and refused to go away easily. It was the first time we saw Shavkat really have to earn a win and not have it all his own way. And to be fair, I thought he passed the test with flying colours. I saw the whole range of opinions after that fight. Some claiming Shavkat got ‘exposed’, some saying he answered some of the questions we had on him. I’m definitely more with the latter. You’re not gonna be a high level pro fighter and go through a whole career without getting tagged. You’re just not. That doesn’t mean you got ‘exposed’ or the phrase I see a lot now…‘fraud checked’ (shudder). Shavkat got into a scrap and he responded well and got the finish. Proved he’s not a front runner and he’s not gonna fold when it gets rough in there. What makes this so interesting is obviously Wonderboy’s style. It’s not something you’d imagine Shavkat’s seen much in sparring and although he came out on top against Neal, he was there to be hit. With Wonderboy’s striking and accuracy, he could certainly cause some problems here. I just think it’s Shavkat’s time. Wonderboy’s approaching 41, he’s got way more miles on the clock in years and actual fights. And Shavkat’s just got more about his MMA game. If Shavkat forces the grappling this could get very ugly very fast for Wonderboy.

 

Tony Ferguson vs Paddy Pimblett is ***WAND’S ONE TO WATCH*** this time. Oh boy. Here we go. It’s weird because I’m actually dreading this but it’s the fight that stands out most to me from the undercard as the one that’s gonna get people invested one way or another. We all know what this is and, frankly, the matchmakers are a set of bastards for making it. But sadly, it doesn’t come as a surprise, not one single bit! I’ve been predicting they’d book this fight for a while now. Feels like after every shaky Paddy win and every depressing Ferguson loss, I’ve been expecting them to go this route. It was so obvious this was gonna happen, wasn’t it? And we all know why.

They’re desperate, absolutely desperate, to baby this clown all the way to a title shot. They’ve obviously realised he can’t get there on his own skills alone. Which is why they had to rob Jared Gordon in Paddy’s last fight. And also why they’re now booking him against a shot to bits Ferguson who’s coming off - count ‘em - SIX STRAIGHT FUCKING LOSSES! Yeah. If they had any confidence in Paddy, this wouldn’t be the route they’d be taking. Because we’ve seen how they move along the fighters they legitimately believe in. Look at how quickly they’ve stepped Ian Garry up. Or Tom Aspinall. Or Jack Della Maddalena. And since people love comparing Pimblett to Conor McGregor, let’s go back to when McGregor was on the climb. In his 4th fight in the UFC, he was knocking out Dustin Poirier in the first round. In Pimblett’s 4th UFC fight…

He went life and death with sodding Jared Gordon and had to be dragged across the finish line by the corrupt judges. There’s a reason a guy like Ilia Topuria, in just 6 fights in the UFC, has already beat Ryan Hall, Bryce Mitchell, Josh Emmett and is now lined up for a title shot against Volkanovski. Yet they’re still feeding Paddy the remains of Tony Ferguson. It’s bollocks. But you know if Paddy knocks out Ferguson they’ll spin it as if it was prime Fergie, the guy who was supposed to fight Khabib. And there’ll be a section of the fanbase who lap that shite up. Don’t get me wrong, Pimblett’s not a terrible fighter. He’s just nowhere near as good as some have made out. You can always tell the fans who actually watched Pimblett pre-UFC vs the ones who just jumped on the bandwagon after he signed and blindly believed all the bullshit hype. He’s not a prospect. He’s nearly 29 years old, he’s 23 fights into his career and he made his debut over 11 years ago. He is what he is. He’s not gonna suddenly make massive strides at this stage in the game.

I’ve never exactly been the biggest fan of Tony Ferguson. I’ve always enjoyed watching him fight (well, his more recent fights haven’t been so enjoyable) but never really warmed to him or found myself rooting for him. But fuck me, I’d love to see him royally cock plans up here. There’s little I’d like to see more in MMA right now than for Ferguson to drop this little weasel and D’Arce choke him purple. Then hopefully the camera pans to Dana to catch his reaction. I’d say I’m being cynical but this is so clearly and blatantly an attempt to feed Paddy an easy win over a once great fighter who’s now shot to shit. When’s the last time we saw a fighter on a 6 fight winning streak matched up with a fighter on a 6 fight losing streak and it’s billed like this on a big PPV main card? I don’t know what the end game is here. If Paddy wins this like they’re expecting/hoping for, then what? Surely they’re not gonna try and justify a title shot coming off a win over 0-6 Ferguson? Maybe McGregor vs Pimblett is what they’re aiming for. But regardless, they’re not gonna be able to protect him much longer. And I really hope Ferguson surprises everyone and fucks him up here. Can you imagine? A battered and washed up Tony Ferguson, at nearly 40 years old and coming off 6 losses on the trot, is the man to kill off Paddy’s unwarranted hype? There’d be no coming back from that for Paddy. It would be hilarious and would fittingly cap off what has been a beautifully shit year for Dana White. Let’s go Tone!

 

Josh Emmett vs Bryce Mitchell has been thrown together less than 2 weeks out from this card. Was supposed to be Emmett against Giga Chikadze but Giga’s withdrawn with a torn groin. Nice. As replacements go and on this kind of notice, they’ve done well here haven’t they? Bit surprised Bryce has jumped in here actually. He’s only one fight removed from that Ilia Topuria mauling. He was undefeated before that and the loss seemed to do quite a number on him. He got back to winning ways in September with a less than spectacular points win over Dan Ige. And Emmett’s had a shite 2023. He started the year higher than he’s ever been, in an interim title fight against Yair Rodriguez. But Yair basically just styled on him and subbed him in 2 rounds. Then in June, Emmett got absolutely battered by Topuria over 5 rounds. On paper, I actually think this could be a good fight for Emmett style-wise. He shouldn’t be easy for Bryce to take down and on the feet he should hold a considerable advantage. Again, I’m surprised Bryce went for this on short notice but he must fancy it. Solid fight all things considered.

 

Alonzo Menifield vs Dustin Jacoby isn’t a bad piece of matchmaking. There’s not much to get excited about when it comes to the Light Heavyweight division these days and I’m not gonna pretend I’m buzzing for this. Neither man is going much higher than they are right now. But on its own merits, as a midcard fight with no stakes or consequences, this could be a fun fight. Menifield’s 36 years old with a 14-3-1 record and is coming into this fight off a submission over Jimmy Crute at UFC 290 in July. I remember enjoying that fight. He’s also got wins over Misha Cirkunov, Ed Herman and, one people mightn’t remember, he knocked out Paul Craig in a round back in 2019. He’s not awful but it seems like he hit his ceiling early in his UFC run and just keeps banging his head against it now. Jacoby’s 35 and has a record of 19-7-1 with 13 finishes. That’s his MMA record anyway. Of course, he’s also dabbled in Kickboxing and Boxing over the years. He even fought Alex Pereira on a GLORY card back in 2014. He’s knocked around a bit. He’s coming off a first round knockout over Kennedy Nzechukwu in August. He needed that coming off a couple of losses. This is what it is. It’s not gonna set the world alight but I expect it to be entertaining enough.

 

Irene Aldana vs Karol Rosa is doing sod all for me. I keep saying it but women’s 135 really is in the toilet at the moment. I like Aldana and she’s actually had some entertaining fights and the odd highlight reel finish but she’s 35 now and coming off a lopsided 5 round beating in her title fight against Amanda Nunes back in June. A rough night at the office for sure. And Rosa’s coming off a split decision win over Yana Santos in July that I actively and deliberately skipped. She’s 17-5 and 2-2 in her last 4 fights. I can’t recall much about her but, as a point of reference, she failed to finish Bethe Correia in Correia’s last fight in 2021 and scraped majority and split decisions over a 40 year old Lina Lansberg and Yana Santos. The mad thing with this is, they’re both ranked in the Top 10 as I type this. Aldana’s at #5, Rosa is at #9. This is where we’re at with the Bantamweight division. Complete opposite to men’s 135 which is the best division in the sport at the moment.

 

Cody Garbrandt vs Brian Kelleher might be decent. Although at this point it’s clear they’re just trying to get Cody wins. It’s been a bit of an odd career really. Went 11-0 initially and looked like a big time prospect. Won the title off Dominick Cruz with an admittedly amazing career best performance…and it was all downhill from there. It’s like winning the title was a curse or something.

It’s as if he made a deal with the devil to sacrifice the rest of his career, his chin and his Fight IQ in exchange for one night of having a flawless title winning performance. He went from being the undefeated UFC champion to then losing the belt in his very first defence and he’s gone a miserable 2-5 since then. Not only that, he’s been knocked out in 4 of those 5 losses. And the one where he didn’t get sparked, Rob Font boxed his ears off for 25 minutes. Good. He’s a prick. He’s actually coming off a rare win here. They fed him Trevin Jones on the UFC 285 undercard in March and he won by decision. From memory it wasn’t much good though and the fact he didn’t look that impressive against an opponent like that speaks volumes about where Cody’s at these days. It’s over. I keep seeing fans cling to that magical night when he styled on Cruz but that was 2016 and it’s not coming back. After all those losses it seems like his punch resistance is mostly gone and I think it’s made him more hesitant to pull the trigger as well. Needless to say, I’m rooting hard for Kelleher here. He’s not great and he obviously never reached the level Garbrandt did at his peak. But unlike Cody, he seems a good guy. He’s been fun to watch over the years as well. Tough guy and he’s been through a lot to come back for this fight. He’s been out of action nearly 18 months and, because of his position on the cards, I don’t think many realise he’s been dealing with a bad neck injury. It was close to ending his career. I’d have been pulling for him anyway against Cody but knowing the shite he’s dealt with to get here, it’d be lovely to see him win. There’s a reason the matchmakers booked this though and it wasn’t with a feel-good story for Kelleher in mind. Kelleher’s not only coming off that long layoff and severe injury, he’s also 37 years old, 24-14 and coming off back-to-back losses. Make no mistake, this has been designed to get Cody another win. It’s basically the prelim version of Ferguson vs Pimblett and I hope both plans blow up in their faces spectacularly.

 

Casey O’Neill vs Ariane Lipski is just there really. Might be a pleasant surprise but I’m not expecting too much from it. O’Neill is a mix of Scottish/Aussie, she’s 26 years old and 9-1 in MMA so far. She signed with the UFC in 2021 and I remember talk of her being a real prospect at the time. She went 4-0 initially in the UFC, with her most notable win being the night she beat up Antonina Shevchenko in front of her sister Valentina. I must admit I remember thinking that would provide some good hype video footage if she ever made it to the point of challenging Val for the belt. Obviously wasn’t to be. And then she followed that with a shaky split decision over a retiring Roxanne Modafferi, which pretty much killed my interest in her. It didn’t help that she was out of action for over a year following that win, then came back on the London card in March and suffered her first defeat to Jennifer Maia. Not the best. She’s still young enough to turn things around but I’m not convinced. She’s up against Lipski here, which is a fight she needs to be winning if she’s got any hope. Lipski’s not to be outdone on the unique mixed heritage front. She’s Brazilian/Polish. She’s 29 years old and coming off a couple of forgettable decision wins over JJ Aldrich and Melissa Gatto. Whatever. Like I said, my expectations are fairly low for this but I’ll probably tune in early and give it a look.

 

Tagir Ulanbekov vs Cody Durden is another fight that stands out to me on the prelims. Definitely don’t skip the curtain jerkers on this card! Another potential darkhorse show stealer, I reckon. Ulanbekov is a guy I haven’t taken all that much notice of really but he looked good strangling Nate Maness in 2 minutes in his last fight. I remember loving his losing effort against Tim Elliott before that as well. He’s been on the shelf just over a year now though and this’ll be a tough fight to come off a layoff to.

Durden beat Jake Hadley on points in an absolute belter of a fight back in August. Seriously, if you missed it, it was on the Sandhagen vs Font undercard. Get it watched. You won’t regret it. Genuinely one of my favourite fights this year. Durden’s seemed like a bit of a cock every time I’ve seen him but, fair’s fair, he’s done really well to bounce back from getting steamrolled in a minute by Mokaev last year. He’s gone 4-0 since then, including spoiling the UFC debut of Carlos Mota and that banger with Hadley. I don’t like him but credit where it’s due. The way he lost to Mokaev would’ve sent a lot of fighters on a downward spiral. I’ve got high expectations for this fight. The Flyweights generally do bring it and I’ve seen enough of these two to make me think they’ll have a good stab at bagging the FOTN bonus.

 

Andre Fili vs Lucas Almeida sounds like fun. Neither are really going anywhere in the Featherweight division but I think they match up nicely here. Fili’s had a right up and down UFC career. You only have to look at his last 6 fights for evidence. He’s gone 2-3-0-1 in that period. And in amongst those 6 fights he won a split decision, lost a split decision, got stopped in 41 seconds, went to a No Contest via eyepokes etc. Just all over the gaff. One thing he’s not though, is boring. Even in defeat, he had a cracking fight with Nathaniel Wood on the last London card in July. I’m less familiar with Almeida but I loved his UFC debut against Mike Trizano. He got the late TKO in that one but then got subbed by Pat Sabatini in his last fight. He’s 14-2 with all his wins coming inside the distance. Yeah, I like the sound of this pairing.

 

Martin Buday vs Shamil Gaziev is happening. Because we’ve gotta have at least one shitty Heavyweight fight on the card. Nah, in fairness, for once I’m not gonna dump on this. I’m gonna give this a chance. Buday has fought 4 times in the UFC now and he’s the typical fat slug that populates most of the division below the top few actual good fighters in the division. It’s shallow as fuck. I just lumped (no pun intended) Buday in with the other big vats of dripping (RIP Rik) like Jake Collier, Josh Parisian and so on. But maybe he’s at least a shade better than that lot. He’s 13-1 with 9 finishes and has gone 4-0 in the UFC so far. All low level and 3 of those wins were nothing happening decisions. But to be fair, I did like what I saw in his last fight. He actually came to scrap against Parisian in August and got him out of there in a round with a kimura. More of that please Marty. Gaziev is making his Octagon debut here. He’s from Bahrain and is undefeated at 11-0 with 10 finishes. He’s coming off a quick submission on DWCS in September and fought in the Brave CF and Ares FC promotions before that. He did lose a couple of times in the amateurs but you’re going back years for that. As a pro, he’s yet to put a foot wrong. Like I said, I’ll give it a chance. Fatty fights can be fun sometimes. Maybe this’ll be one of them. #EATCLEAN.

 

 

Merry Christmas 🎄

Edited December 15, 2023 by wandshogun09

[wandshogun09]

Bollocks.

 

[WeeAl]

Cunts. Noticed that during the Newcastle/Man United game last night. They're promoting the main event, Pimblett/Ferguson and Garry/Luque as the top three fights. 

[Bruce85]

Bunch of bastards! Anyone know how reply’s work with box office? I’m out that Saturday and won’t be able to watch it till the Sunday afternoon. 

[wandshogun09]

2 hours ago, WeeAl said:

Cunts. Noticed that during the Newcastle/Man United game last night. They're promoting the main event, Pimblett/Ferguson and Garry/Luque as the top three fights. 

Pantoja gets no respect! 😡

7 minutes ago, Bruce85 said:

Bunch of bastards! Anyone know how reply’s work with box office? I’m out that Saturday and won’t be able to watch it till the Sunday afternoon. 

From what I remember, if you’ve ordered it, they air replays on a loop for at least the full Sunday. Maybe a day or so longer. Think that’s just the main card though but the prelims will still be on the normal TNT Sports channel anyway so you can get them as normal, either by recording them or through the Discovery app.

[wandshogun09]

And so it begins…

 

[Bruce85]

On 12/4/2023 at 11:54 PM, wandshogun09 said:

And so it begins…

 

Seen reports that Diego Lopes has offered to step in and fight Emmett. Considering he’s new to the roster, Lopes is turning into one of my favourite fighters to watch and wouldn’t mind seeing him against Emmett.

[wandshogun09]

Would’ve preferred Diego Lopes but this’ll do nicely. Very solid save.

 

[wandshogun09]

How we seeing these fights going then? Just a few days away now.

All logic to me says Leon beats Colby but there’s something nagging at me and giving me a bad feeling fucking Colby’s gonna nick it. It’s just the way this year’s going, isn’t it? With fucking Strickland winning the Middleweight strap, I don’t know what to believe about anything anymore. And it’ll be typical now if we end the year with Strickland, O’Malley and Covington as champs. It’s weird because I really think this is Leon’s fight to lose. It sounds like I’m oversimplifying it but I feel like it really is a case of if Leon doesn’t go backwards and concede ground (as he’s been known to do in the past), he’ll be just fine. But it’s the one concern I have. If Leon keeps backing up to much and doesn’t make Colby pay for coming at him, I can see a scenario where he just lets rounds slip by and Colby nicks the decision just on being a bit busier. Colby’s layoff is an x-factor though and it’s not like he looked great in his last fight with a washed up Masvidal really.

Haven’t given the rest of the main card fights that much thought but off the top of my head I reckon we see Pantoja retain in another corker, Shavkat makes Wonderboy look his age, Paddy beats the remains of Ferguson then acts like he just beat prime GSP, and Luque vs Garry I’m not sure on. Maybe Garry but I’m about 50/50 on that one.

[Egg Shen]

Leaning Leon Scott in the main event. After seeing him deal with Usman I have to lean that way. I may be sleeping on Colby due  to the inactivity and we haven't seen him grind someone out in a while. If Leon does find himself handling that pressue he could have issues.

Think im looking forward to Luque/Garry the most. Feels like the whole MMA community has turned on Garry in the last month, it's a barmy little story. The only person who hasn't said anything is Luque, who seems the nicest chap in the world. Still, Luque has been anoited the guy to take Garry down. Interested to see how the crowd react.

The presser this week will be a must see also.

[wandshogun09]

I read earlier that they’re doing one of them big press conferences this week as well with all the top fighters on the 297, 298 and 299 cards. Sounds great until you remember it’ll just be Strickland and O’Malley being twats, Pennington and Bueno Silva sat up there getting asked no questions and then a sprinkling of DDP, Volk, Topuria and Chito. A far cry from the old ‘Go Big’ one from years ago but might be worth a look. 

[Bruce85]

I’m going with Leon by stoppage late round 2/early round 3. I think he’ll be able to keep it on the feet and his striking is to sharpe for Colby. If Colby can’t get it to the ground I think he’ll try and brawl and imo Leon is a much better striker and will be able to snipe him and get a finish. If Leon can’t get him out of there I could see Colby grinding out a decision win. 

I can’t fucking stand Colby so ideally a 10 second ko with him retiring would be my ideal outcome. 
 

Not sure on the co-main, for me it’s a bit of a pick um and maybe the hardest to predict, Pantoja I think wins by UD. I think Shavkat could make easy work of Wonderboy and make a real statement and put himself in line for next shot at the belt. Paddy to win another dodgy decision and act like it was the best performance ever. I’ll pick Garry to get another lopsided decision. 
 

Really looking forward to this one, even if they are making us pay for it! 

Edited December 11, 2023 by Bruce85

[Ironic Indie Lad]

Colby in the main event is possibly the hardest sell ever for me. I don't give a fuck about all the MAGA nonsense and his incredibly fake persona in general. 

He's a good fighter but his credibility as a contender is almost entirely based on being competitive (but losing twice) to the man that everyone, at the time, accepted as the 2nd best WW of all time.

Thank god theres a great undercard!

[wandshogun09]

I just really hope Leon wins and it’s not close or controversial. Because you just know if it’s in any way even slightly close, they’re gonna force feed us another Colby title shot next year. People talk about fighters getting preferential treatment and ‘Dana White privilege’ and all that. Colby has to be one of the worst cases of that. Fucker is 2-2 in his last 4 (with the 2 losses being failed title shots) and has literally done nothing since the Masvidal fight nearly 2 years ago yet waltzes straight back into a title fight. And when this fight was being talked about and Dana was being asked about other potential contenders he’d just snap back with “No, Colby’s next”. As if it was obvious like he was the clear next in line. Again, despite doing fuck all in almost 2 years.

Then go back to Leon’s climb to the title shot and yeah he had that big spell of inactivity as well. But unlike Colby, his wasn’t so much by choice. He had 6 cancelled fights in 2020/21, only one of them was because he pulled out and that was because he had COVID. Not to mention he signed to fight Khamzat Chimaev 3 times in that period and Khamzat pulled out twice. Also, the Woodley fight got cancelled because the card got scrapped when the COVID pandemic was at its worst. He was trying to fight. Yet that didn’t stop the UFC temporarily removing him from the rankings for inactivity in late 2020. Where’s that same energy with Colby? 

Anyway yeah. A vicious stoppage by Leon within a couple of rounds would be the perfect way to hopefully eliminate Colby from the title picture for the foreseeable future. But I’m not holding my breath on that. I think that headkick KO against Usman has made a lot of people forget that Leon was never considered to be a finisher. That’s part of what made that KO so shocking. 

[WeeAl]

Yeah I'm not seeing a finish either way in that main event. It's not either man's thing. Leon finished Usman to win the title because he and his corner absolutely knew they couldn't win a decision. He had to knock Kamaru out. Plus, in Dana White's UFC, Leon was never going to get another shot of he didn't win that night. 

We know more about this current version of Edwards than we do about Colby. I'm expecting a close, competitive fight. The difference being I think Leon has levelled up in the past couple of years, and I don't imagine the same to be true for Colby. I'd expect Covington to be game, in shape and to try and force his usual game on Edwards. However I think Edwards can deal with him on the feet and land the cleaner, better strikes. 

An interesting stat I heard earlier - outside of the two wins Edwards has over Usman - neither of these two have any wins over any fighter currently ranked in the t rest of the Welterweight division. Speaks to a few things really - the turnover, the reduced activity of many fighters at higher levels, re-match city etc. 

I'm predicting Pantoja will stop Royval inside three. Neither of these two know what the off switch is. They are both going to go for the kill, but Pantoja is just better and has more ways to win I think. Should be great fun. 

Shavkat is just all kinds of wrong for Wonderboy. If I had to order a Wonderman Kryptonite, I'm almost certain I'd have Albert from Hermes phoning to ask me how the fuck I expect him to get the big cunt with the hat, into the back of his Berlingo.