UFC 282: Blachowicz vs Ankalaev - Dec 10 ??

[wandshogun09]

A month away. The last PPV of the year and they’re going out with a bang…

PPV MAIN CARD
Jan Blachowicz vs Magomed Ankalaev - Vacant Light Heavyweight Title

Paddy Pimblett vs Jared Gordon 

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Alex Morono 

Darren Till vs Dricus Du Plessis

Bryce Mitchell vs Ilia Topuria 

ESPN PRELIMS 
Jay Perrin vs Raul Rosas Jr

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Chris Daukaus

Edmen Shahbazyan vs Dalcha Lungiambula

Chris Curtis vs Joaquin Buckley

ESPN+/FIGHT PASS PRELIMS
Billy Quarantillo vs Alexander Hernandez

Erik Silva vs TJ Brown

Steven Koslow vs Cameron Saaiman 

 

Awesome card. Following 280 and 281 wasn’t ever gonna be easy but I think they’ve done a good job of making this PPV feel like a strong one to close out the year on. As I type this, that’s the bout order according to Marcel Dorff but you know the drill by now. Expect changes, lots of changes, between now and the night of the show. There was a lot of talk that Jon Jones would be making his long awaited Heavyweight debut on this card, the plan was apparently Jones vs Stipe Miocic, which would’ve been ace. That’s not happening ? still, we roll on with this lot.

 

So Jan Blachowicz vs Magomed Ankalaev is the new main event. Right mess. Of course, it was supposed to be Jiri Prochazka vs Glover Teixeira 2 for the title, in a rematch of their FOTY contender in June. This Blachowicz vs Ankalaev fight was set as co-main, presumably in a title eliminator with the winner getting whoever the champ would be in the first half of next year. Just a couple of weeks out from the show, it all went tits up.

Prochazka suffered a serious shoulder injury and was forced out of the fight. I read that he initially wanted to still fight with one arm but that wasn’t gonna get the go ahead. According to Dana White…

“This is the worst shoulder injury the doctors have seen in UFC history. It’s really fucking bad. His shoulder is very, very bad. He’s going to have serious surgery which will require extensive rehab.” - Dana White

Sucks. Never even got to defend the title and now he’s had to vacate it. I saw some moaning that the title has been made vacant, as if they’ve screwed Jiri over, but it sounds like they know he’s gonna be out a long time and the division has to move on. I feel bad for Jiri but equally as bad for Glover. From everything I’ve read, Glover was offered a fight with Ankalaev here instead, to crown a new champion. He agreed to fight Ankalaev but asked if it could be pushed back a few weeks to the Brazil PPV in January. Which is fair enough considering Ankalaev is a completely different style to what Glover’s been training for in Jiri. And it would’ve made perfect sense for Glover to get what would surely be his last crack at UFC gold on home soil. But the UFC needed a main event for this card and Glover declined on the grounds of not having enough prep time after the opponent switch. Understandable on both sides, to be honest. Just a really shitty situation for all involved. Except for Blachowicz and Ankalaev, who now find themselves battling for the belt. They’ve gone from a #1 contender match to fighting for all the marbles. It’s been a lucky break for both because, although both are very good, neither had the strongest claim to a title shot based on their most recent wins. Blachowicz is only one fight removed from losing the title to Glover last year, and his one win since was against Aleksandar Rakic and ended via injury. And Ankalaev had a similar win over Anthony Smith where Smith reportedly broke his leg throwing a kick early in the fight.

Not gonna set the PPV world alight these two, and losing Jiri vs Glover 2 is a massive blow to the card. But what can you do? It’s not an ideal headliner and I’m not sure how entertaining of a fight it’s gonna be but it was the best move to make under the crappy circumstances. Crown a new champ and keep the ball rolling. Hopefully Glover still gets his shot next year but fuck knows when Jiri will be back, or if he’ll ever be the same again. Shoulder injuries can really derail a career and once a shoulder is gone, they’re rarely ever right again. This is an interesting one. Not expecting a barnburner by any means but I’m intrigued to see how it plays out. Probably leaning towards Ankalaev myself. He’s younger, fresher and probably a bit more well rounded. Whereas Jan will be 40 in February and I don’t know, he looked awful in that Glover fight and I can see Ank getting him down and having similar success. We’ll see. I actually predicted in that ‘MMA Champions’ thread a year ago that Ankalaev would be champ at 205 by the end of this year. My expectations for him cooled off a lot this year but in a mad twist of events he might actually do it now! I’d like to see Blachowicz get the belt back though. If only because he’s more beatable for Glover and I badly want Glover to retire as champ.

 

Paddy Pimblett vs Jared Gordon then. The ‘Paddy The Baddy’ bollocks continues. Lad. This time he makes his PPV debut. After monumental UFC victories over those titans of the Octagon - Luigi Vendramini, Kazula Vargas and Jordan Leavitt - I was hoping to see him in a bit of a juicier fight here. Especially with him being on PPV this time. I mean, this is a bit of a step up but it still feels like they’re really taking baby steps. Oh well. It’ll be interesting to see how the Vegas crowd reacts to him now he’s a few fights into his UFC stint. His last couple have been in front of rabid home crowds in London.

?

I was hoping to see him fight either Terrance McKinney or Drew Dober here. I think either fight would’ve been mega exciting and, although both would be dangerous fights, I don’t think those guys are insurmountable or unrealistic matchups at all. Risky yeah, but what’s the point in fights with no risk? Where’s the fun in that? McKinney’s powerful and a ridiculously fast starter and Dober’s granite tough and game as fuck. Dober’s also currently ranked #15 so that could’ve moved Paddy up the ladder, if that’s what he or the UFC want. But I don’t think it is what they want at the moment. Obviously they want him up there ideally, but I think they know his limitations. If he beat Dober, and I’m not saying he couldn’t, he’s in that Top 15 and then it’s gonna be difficult to protect him the same way they have been. Getting reckless and being clipped by the bottom rung guys like Vendramini and Vargas didn’t bode well and it seems like they’ve decided to keep him away from hitters for the time being since then. Leavitt was a bit better overall than those two but very much a ground based fighter who posed very little threat on the feet. And now Gordon, who’s 19-5, has 8 finishes but hasn’t stopped anyone since his UFC debut back in 2017. He’s not a shit fighter, he’s won 4 of his last 5 and has had success grinding out some dull decisions. But he’s never been much good to watch and I don’t recall him ever looking like a huge threat in the striking or grappling really. Paddy probably gets another win here but I wouldn’t be shocked if Gordon dragged him to a points loss, to be honest. Not that I rate Gordon that highly, I just don’t think Pimblett’s nearly as good as many think. If he wins this then no doubt he’ll be on that UK card that’s supposed to have Edwards vs Usman 3 on top. Would make sense.

 

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Alex Morono then. This is a massive comedown from what we were gonna get. Ponz vs Robbie Lawler promised to be a barnburner, even at this stage of both their careers there’s just no other way that could’ve gone. Lawler’s out, Morono’s in. They could’ve done worse for a replacement to be fair, I’m just a bit cold on this because of the disappointment of not getting to see Lawler in there. Oh well. Ponzinibbio is coming into this one off a couple of split decision losses to Geoff Neal and Michel Pereira but the Pereira fight was fantastic and got FOTN. Ponz has lost a little step but he can still go. He beat Miguel Baeza in another FOTN corker before that as well. Morono jumps in on very short notice and that’s always a bit of a mystery. It often mostly depends on what kind of shape those guys are in when that call comes and how much weight they had to cut. Although this one is at a Catchweight of 180lbs anyway because of that. Morono’s been quietly collecting wins actually. He’s 22-7-0-1 now and comes into this one off the back of 4 straight wins. Nothing mind blowing in there. A washed up Donald Cerrone and a fizzled out Mickey Gall are probably his best wins. But he’ll be coming in confident if nothing else. OK fight, just not a patch on what we were supposed to get.

 

Darren Till vs Dricus Du Plessis is a funny one. Not really sure what to expect out of this. To be honest, I’ll believe it’s happening when I actually see it. Feels like Till’s been lined up for fights that haven’t ended up happening loads over the last couple of years. We last saw him getting submitted by Derek Brunson last September. Before that you’re going back to July 2020 when he lost a decision to Robert Whittaker. He hasn’t won a fight since his split decision over Kelvin Gastelum in 2019 and he’s now 1-4 in his last 5. Yet that Nick Peet who works for BT Sport will still swear blind that Till’s gonna be UFC champ within the next 12 months. Just because he’s Scouse like him. Like I said though, I’m always half expecting the announcement of Till withdrawing from a fight. And right enough, he’s posted these pics of his eye recently…

As of now, the fight is still on and I’ve seen pics of him sparring since. Hopefully he makes it through the next few weeks and the fight goes ahead but, you know, don’t hold your breath or anything. If it does happen, I hope DDP absolutely chins him. Never been able to warm to Till and Du Plessis has quickly grown on me since he signed with the UFC a couple of years ago. Hasn’t been a dull moment yet. He’s 17-2 with 16 finishes and had never been the distance until his last fight in July. And even then, it was a barmy 15 minute slugfest with Brad Tavares. I don’t see him as some mega prospect and I can see him picking up some losses soon, but Christ he’s exciting to watch. Till on the other hand, has a knack for dragging fighters to shitty nothing happening decisions. So we’ll see how this plays out. Another loss for Till would be rough as fuck but I’ll live with it. DDP for the win!

 

Bryce Mitchell vs Ilia Topuria is ***WAND’S ONE TO WATCH*** and what a fascinating matchup it is. Both undefeated, both on the rise, both still in their 20s and most likely not even at their respective peaks yet. I don’t have a fucking clue how this one goes. Usually I have some kind of gut feeling on a fight as soon as it’s announced but I’m getting sod all here. Complete clash of styles but one I can’t wait to see unfold. This nearly got made for the Nov 5th card. Bryce was originally scheduled to headline that one against Movsar Evloev but the Russian dropped out. There was apparently some negotiations for Topuria stepping in but talks fizzled because he couldn’t make 145 on short notice. Glad they’ve stuck with this pairing though. And I’m glad they just gave them a few more weeks so they can both come in better prepared and Topuria has time to make the weight without killing himself.

Bryce Mitchell isn’t someone I’m particularly a fan of. I don’t strongly dislike him but I haven’t warmed to him either. Just too much of a hillbilly redneck wally for me. In the cage though, I can’t knock him. I’ve really enjoyed watching him. I can’t recall him showing much of a striking game but his grappling has been a joy to watch. He’s undefeated at 15-0 with 9 submissions. Came into the UFC through TUF in 2018 and has gone from strength to strength since. In 2019 he subbed Matt Sayles via first round twister.

It was only the second ever twister finish in UFC history and there hasn’t been another since. He added points wins over Charles Rosa and Andre Fili to his record in 2020 but was inactive throughout 2021. So he came into 2022 without any real momentum and he hasn’t really been tested at a high level. He made a believer out of a lot of people, me included, in March when he utterly dominated Edson Barboza over 3 rounds. Really impressive performance, especially after a layoff.

Topuria is 25 years old and also unbeaten at 12-0 with 11 of those wins coming inside the distance. He made his UFC debut on short notice in 2020 and grappled the arse off Youssef Zalal. He then dismantled Damon Jackson in a couple of minutes with his boxing, wrecked Ryan Hall in a round last December, then sparked Jai Herbert out cold in London in March this year.

He’s looked a beast so far. He got absolutely cracked with a brutal headkick before that as well. Just ate the fuck out of Herbert’s shinbone right to his gob. And came back with that KO punch. He’s obviously got some really dangerous striking but he’s no slouch on the ground either. And he’s already shown he can deal with a lethal grappler when he destroyed Ryan Hall a year ago. Of course, Bryce is a different kind of style and threat than Hall but it does show Topuria doesn’t fear that grappling threat and he’ll be the more well rounded of the two in there. Love this fight. I’m sure there’ll be some complaining that they shouldn’t match two hot prospects like this against each other, should build them up etc. Balls to it. I love seeing matchups like this.

 

Jay Perrin vs Raul Rosas Jr will be worth checking out. There’s a reason this is on the televised prelims even on a loaded card like this and it’s all about the UFC debut of Rosas. He’s about to make history as the youngest fighter to ever compete in the UFC.

He won a contract on DWCS in September, winning his fight by decision. He was still just 17 at that time, he turned 18 in October. He’s currently undefeated at 6-0 and 5 finishes. I saw clips of his fight on DWCS and he looked impressive. Especially some of the grappling I saw. But I knew nothing about his opponent so I don’t know. There’s gonna be a lot of media and buzz surrounding him because of his age but the jury’s massively out. He could go on to be something special and I hope it works out for him, but he could just as easily be the next Chase Hooper. In the majority of cases, I think being in the UFC at such a young age isn’t a good idea but maybe Rosas will be one of the ones who does well out of it. Perrin’s nothing special as an opponent. 29 years old, 10-6 with 6 finishes and has gone 0-2 so far in the UFC, dropping decisions to Mario Bautista and Aori Qileng.

 

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Chris Daukaus. Even the Heavyweight fight on this card is decent. I quite like Rozenstruik. He’s not great, he’s never gonna amount to much, but he’s a likeable big lump I think. Has a ton of fight experience - a 76-8-1 Kickboxing record on top of a 16 fight MMA career. But he’s not fared too well in the UFC. He’s had his moments, stoppage wins over Junior Dos Santos, Alistair Overeem and Andrei Arlovski isn’t bad going. But he’s 2-4 in his last 6, has lost his last 2 and just got done in a round by Volkov in June. In an odd division like Heavyweight, you’re always only a few big knockouts away from a title fight. But Rozenstruik just isn’t winning enough to get to that point. Daukaus is in a similar boat, coming off back-to-back knockout losses to Derrick Lewis and Curtis Blaydes. He was on an alright little 5 fight win streak before that though, with 5 straight knockouts. Neither are going much further than middle of the pack but I can see this being a fun bombfest for as long as it lasts.

 

Edmen Shahbazyan vs Dalcha Lungiambula. Don’t really know what to make of this one. It doesn’t seem like 5 minutes ago Shahbazyan was seen as one of the most promising young up and comers on the roster. He got attention right away because of his links to Ronda Rousey but he was making a name for himself in his own right early on, going 11-0 with 10 first round finishes at the start of his career. Including a headkick KO over Brad Tavares. Considering Tavares had previously gone 5 rounds with Israel Adesanya and 3 rounds with Yoel Romero, this young kid wiping him out in less than 3 minutes was an eye opener. It’s all gone to shit though. He got badly derailed by Derek Brunson in 2020 and hasn’t been able to get back on track since. He’s 0-3 in his last 3 with losses to Jack Hermansson and Nassourdine Imavov. He turns 25 just before this fight. In theory he’s got time. But I don’t know if he ever fully recovers from this slump he’s in. Looking back I think it was too much, too soon. Lungiambula’s never been much good. He looks badass but obviously just looking badass doesn’t win fights. He’s 11-5, coming off 3 consecutive losses and has been finished in his last two fights. Shahbazyan really should be beating this guy. If he loses this one then there’s no hope.

 

Chris Curtis vs Joaquin Buckley, again, a really good fight for Fight Pass. Honestly, probably a better fight than some of the Apex main events we’ve had over the last few months. Curtis is coming off that points loss to Jack Hermansson on the London show in July. He was on a nice win streak before that beating guys like Phil Hawes, Brendan Allen and Rodolfo Vieira but that Hermansson loss really set him back. Not just the loss but his performance as a whole. He just looked really flat and, at times, lost out there. Which was odd considering he’s a 38 fight veteran. Maybe just an off night or maybe Hermansson was just a level too far for him. Buckley’s always pretty fun to watch. Obviously, you think of Buckley and the first thing that comes to mind is that kick he knocked Impa Kasanganay into the shadow realm with a couple of years ago. One of the greatest knockouts of all time for me. But he’s been quite exciting to watch in general, I think. Not a contender or anything, I think he’s kind of found his level at this point. But he’s good value in fights like this that add a bit of spice to an undercard. He’s coming off a decision loss against Nassourdine Imavov on the Paris card in September. He clearly lost that one but it was a cracking fight and he was swinging for the fences as he always does. I like this one.

 

Billy Quarantillo vs Alexander Hernandez is a really good fight. The fact it’s on the Fight Pass bit is a testament to the depth of this card. This is the pick of the Fight Pass prelims for me. Quarantillo has been a highlight of pretty much every card he’s appeared on from what I’ve seen. He’s 16-4 and has lost 2 of his last 3 but that doesn’t tell the whole story. As far as being in entertaining fights goes, he’s been consistent as fuck. The Spike Carlyle fight in 2020 was tremendous.

Then there was the KO over Kyle Nelson, the FOTN with Gabriel Benitez, the fucking fantastic back and forth battle with Shane Burgos! That Burgos fight would’ve got FOTN and been talked about a lot more if it was on a different card. It just happened to fall on the same night as the Gaethje vs Chandler madness. Billy Q is ace. One of the unsung heroes of the undercards and Fight Nights over the last few years for me. Hernandez doesn’t really do boring either but he seems a bit of a cock so there’s a clear babyface vs heel divide to this one for me. Hernandez has been wildly inconsistent. Looks great one fight then shits the bed the next. Hoping Quarantillo comes out on top but we’ll see.

 

Erik Silva vs TJ Brown. Not a clue on this. Silva is making his UFC debut after scoring a first round TKO win on DWCS in August. He’s Venezuelan, 35 years old and 9-1 with 7 finishes. Not to be confused with ex UFC Welterweight fighter Erick Silva, who you might remember losing a wildly entertaining scrap with Matt Brown back in 2014 and losing to Jon Fitch in what was probably Fitch’s best fight ever in 2012. Anyway…Brown’s 32 with a 16-9 record, 13 finishes. Seen him a couple of times but can’t say I remember much about him. Best win is his decision over Charles Rosa in January but he comes into this fight off a decision loss to Shayilan Nuerdanbieke in June. Fuck knows? At a glance it’s meaningless filler but might be worth a look to see if Silva’s any good.

 

Steven Koslow vs Cameron Saaiman is a clash of two young Octagon newcomers. Never seen either before but done a bit of digging and it sounds like it’ll be worth a look. Koslow AKA ‘Obi Wan Shinobi’ is 25 years old, a 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu guy and undefeated at 6-0 with 6 finishes. All submissions, all in the first round. Saaiman is from South Africa, where he was a champ in the EFC promotion.

He’s also unbeaten, also 6-0 and 5 of his wins have come before the final bell. He’s only 21 years old as well. He was supposed to face Ronnie Lawrence on this card but Lawrence unfortunately pulled out. I’m intrigued by this though. Rare you see two young, undefeated debuting prospects like this paired off against each other right out the gate.

 

And that my friends, is UFC 282. 

Edited December 10, 2022 by wandshogun09

[Egg Shen]

Excellent card, love a few fights buried down the card on this.

I fancy Jiri to do abit of a job on Glover this time around. It's an unlikely rematch really but it's warranted, I just feel that first fight might have taken what was left of Glover, it was brutal.

[wandshogun09]

Gustafsson’s out. Probably for the best.

 

[Egg Shen]

shit, this don't sound good:

 

[WeeAl]

I just seen his post on Instagram there. Didn't know the second bit. Very surprised they didn't just put Glover and Jan in the main event for the vacant title. So does Glover now sit out for a fight that he won't get when Jiri returns? As surely the winner of the Ankalaev v Blachowicz fight should be next up at that point. Really unfortunate timing, it's bad enough for Jiri but it actually seems worse for Teixeira. I expected this would be his last fight, but now god knows where that leaves him. 

[wandshogun09]

This shit’s going from bad to worse quick.

 

[Egg Shen]

8 hours ago, WeeAl said:

I just seen his post on Instagram there. Didn't know the second bit. Very surprised they didn't just put Glover and Jan in the main event for the vacant title. So does Glover now sit out for a fight that he won't get when Jiri returns? As surely the winner of the Ankalaev v Blachowicz fight should be next up at that point. Really unfortunate timing, it's bad enough for Jiri but it actually seems worse for Teixeira. I expected this would be his last fight, but now god knows where that leaves him. 

Ankalaev/Blachowicz is for the vacant title. Glover turned down a chance to step in against one of them (im guesing Jan) for the belt it seems.

[wandshogun09]

Yeah I read that Glover was offered Ankalaev, he asked them to push it back a few weeks to the Brazil card but they weren’t having it. I can see both sides of that one. I don’t blame Glover asking for a bit more prep time when they’re throwing a new opponent with a completely different style at him on a few weeks notice. But from the UFC’s side, they need a main event for this card not Brazil. It’s a shame. Apparently Jiri’s shoulder is completely fucked as well. Dana’s saying the doctor said it was the worst shoulder injury he’d seen in UFC history, so he’s gonna be out a while. Last thing the 205 division needed. It’s a right mess now. 

[Carbomb]

Makes sense to give Ankalaev a title shot, though. He's the Islam Makhachev of 205, really. 

From a personal perspective, it might provide Paul Craig with a fast track to a title shot if he can get back to winning and string just a few together. With LHW not being in a good state, and Craig being Ankalaev's only loss (razor-edge though it might be), it might happen sooner than we think. 

[Egg Shen]

nah, i think 205 is tied up for a while.

Glover will get the winner of Ankalaev/Jan, then we'll be looking at Jiri coming back, plus you got Anthony Smith still mulling around. Unless Ankalaev wins and demands a Paul Craig fight, I can't see it.

[wandshogun09]

Updated the opening post and the poll and all that cack. Blachowicz vs Ankalaev and a Paddy co-main up top is a bit weak but it’s still a strong card overall. This card is like Norma Dumont though, more bottom heavy and the quality is lower down. 

Edited November 27, 2022 by wandshogun09

[neil]

On 11/24/2022 at 5:41 AM, wandshogun09 said:

Apparently Jiri’s shoulder is completely fucked as well. Dana’s saying the doctor said it was the worst shoulder injury he’d seen in UFC history

I am dying to know exactly what went down and what the injury is.

[wandshogun09]

Couple of minor changes to this. Curtis vs Buckley has rightly been moved up from Fight Pass to the televised prelims, OSP vs Broccoli gets demoted. And an interesting battle of UFC newbies has been added in Steven Koslow vs Cameron Saaiman. 25 and 21 years old, both unbeaten at 6-0 with all but one of Saaiman’s wins ending inside the distance. Sounds good. Saw this cool throwback picture of Saaiman with Dricus Du Plessis earlier as well…

The card’s obviously taken a massive kick to the bollocks losing Jiri-Glover 2 but there’s still a lot to like about 282. 

Fight week is upon us!

[wandshogun09]

Great. According to Marcel Dorff’s Twitter, Robbie Lawler is out of the Ponzinibbio fight. Every fucking fight week these days this shit happens. OSP’s fight is off as well apparently due to his opponent having visa issues. Hopefully they pay OSP anyway, 3 different opponents he’s had scheduled for this card and now he doesn’t get to fight. Not that I was fussed about seeing him fight but it sucks for him. Lawler vs Ponz though ?

[Egg Shen]

It's crazy how many fights drop off during fight week. The Lawler fight feels like a big hit, outside of Pimblett he was the guy that would have got the crowd excited, sucks.