Election Predictions Competition

[Ron&Hermione]

There is an election upon us!

 

And what better way to maximise the enjoyment of the night than a nice spot of competition.

 

I decided to post this now due to fever pitch excitement, plus in case anyone wants to edit their posts after doing a load of research and going all Nate Silver on the election. You can do so til the start of Election Day.

 

I have taken the closest to call constituencies in terms of odds made by the bookmakers, a lot of which are essentially coin flips. (Help goes to JNLister for pointing me in the right direction.)

 

Before we get to the scoring, let's talk prizes! And we are going all out for the elections. The winner will receive a £25 gift card, the runner up a £15 gift card, of his or hers choosing (providing it's stocked in Asda/Tescos). Third place will win a £10 hungryhouse voucher.

 

So here is how the scoring works. First choose which party will win each of the listed constituencies.

1 point will be awarded for each correct guess. (Total of 15 points)

 

 

Then choose OVER or UNDER for the amount of seats each party will win.

1 point will be awarded for each correct guess. (Total of 7 points)

 

 

Finally choose the exact amount of seats each party will win. (Add next to your over/under prediction.)

5 points for a correct guess.

2 points for one away of the actual total.

1 point for two away of the actual total.

 

 

(2010 results in brackets)

 

1. Cannock Chase (CON)

2. Cheadle (Lib Dem)

3. Dumfries and Galloway (Lab)

4. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (Con)

5. Dunfermline and West Fife (Lab)

6. East Renfrewshire (Lab)

7. Edinburgh South (Lab)

8. Halesowen and Rowley Regis (Con)

9. North Cornwall (Lib Dem)

10. Norwich North (Con)

11. St Ives (Lib Dem)

12. Stevenage (Con)

13. Torbay (Lib Dem)

14. Watford (Con)

15. Wirral West (Con)

 

 

 

Conservatives over/under - 284.5

Labour over/under - 272.5

Liberal democrats - 26.5

SNP - 49.5

UKIP - 3.5

Plaid Cymru - 3.5

Green Party -0.5

[Ron&Hermione]

Even though my score won't count, here are my predictions.

 

1. Cannock Chase (CON) - Labour

2. Cheadle (Lib Dem) - Conservatives

3. Dumfries and Galloway (Lab) - SNP

4. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (Con) - Conservatives

5. Dunfermline and West Fife (Lab) - SNP

6. East Renfrewshire (Lab) - SNP

7. Edinburgh South (Lab) - SNP

8. Halesowen and Rowley Regis (Con) - Labour

9. North Cornwall (Lib Dem) - Conservatives

10. Norwich North (Con) - Conservatives

11. St Ives (Lib Dem) - Conservatives

12. Stevenage (Con) - Conservatives

13. Torbay (Lib Dem) - Conservatives

14. Watford (Con) - Conservatives

15. Wirral West (Con) - Labour

 

 

 

Conservatives over/under - 284.5 / Over - 286

Labour over/under - 272.5 / Over - 276

Liberal democrats - 26.5 / Under - 18

SNP - 49.5 / Over - 50

UKIP - 3.5 / Over - 4

Plaid Cymru - 3.5 / Over - 4

Green Party -0.5 / Over - 1

[PowerButchi]

 

1. Cannock Chase (CON) - Tory

2. Cheadle (Lib Dem) - Labour

3. Dumfries and Galloway (Lab) - SNP

4. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (Con) - Conservative

5. Dunfermline and West Fife (Lab) - SNP

6. East Renfrewshire (Lab) - SNP

7. Edinburgh South (Lab) - Labour

8. Halesowen and Rowley Regis (Con) - Con

9. North Cornwall (Lib Dem) - Lib Dem

10. Norwich North (Con) - Con

11. St Ives (Lib Dem) - Lib Dem

12. Stevenage (Con) - Conservative

13. Torbay (Lib Dem) - Lib Dem

14. Watford (Con) - Con

15. Wirral West (Con) - Con

 

 

 

Conservatives over/under - 284.5 Under 279

Labour over/under - 272.5 Over 2 274

Liberal democrats - 26.5 Under 25

SNP - 49.5 Over 55

UKIP - 3.5 Under 1

Plaid Cymru - 3.5 Over 4

Green Party -0.5 Over 1

[The Duke]

1. Cannock Chase (CON) - CON
2. Cheadle (Lib Dem) - CON
3. Dumfries and Galloway (Lab) - SNP
4. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (Con) - SNP 
5. Dunfermline and West Fife (Lab) - SNP
6. East Renfrewshire (Lab) - SNP
7. Edinburgh South (Lab) - SNP
8. Halesowen and Rowley Regis (Con) - Labour 
9. North Cornwall (Lib Dem) - CON
10. Norwich North (Con) - CON
11. St Ives (Lib Dem) - CON
12. Stevenage (Con) - CON
13. Torbay (Lib Dem) - CON
14. Watford (Con) - CON 
15. Wirral West (Con) - CON



Conservatives over/under - 284.5 / Over - 290
Labour over/under - 272.5 / under 269
Liberal democrats - 26.5 / Under - 20
SNP - 49.5 / Over - 54
UKIP - 3.5 / Under 1
Plaid Cymru - 3.5 / Over - 5
Green Party -0.5 / Over - 2 

[Fog Dude]

Since I acted like a smart arse in the other thread, and I'm probably known on this board primarily for predictions, I might as well stick my neck out... 

 

1. Cannock Chase (CON) - Lab gain
2. Cheadle (Lib Dem) - LD hold
3. Dumfries and Galloway (Lab) - SNP gain
4. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (Con) - SNP gain
5. Dunfermline and West Fife (Lab) - SNP gain
6. East Renfrewshire (Lab) - SNP gain
7. Edinburgh South (Lab) - Lab hold
8. Halesowen and Rowley Regis (Con) - Lab gain
9. North Cornwall (Lib Dem) - LD hold
10. Norwich North (Con) - Lab gain
11. St Ives (Lib Dem) - LD hold
12. Stevenage (Con) - Lab gain
13. Torbay (Lib Dem) - LD hold
14. Watford (Con) - LD gain
15. Wirral West (Con) - Lab gain

 

Conservatives over/under - 284.5: way under at 236
Labour over/under - 272.5: over at 281
Liberal democrats - 26.5: over at 38
SNP - 49.5: over at 54
UKIP - 3.5: over at 9, sadly
Plaid Cymru - 3.5: over at 6
Green Party -0.5: over at 3

[Glenryck Pilchards]

1. Cannock Chase (CON) Lab gain
2. Cheadle (Lib Dem) Con gain
3. Dumfries and Galloway (Lab)Lab hold
4. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (Con) SNP gain
5. Dunfermline and West Fife (Lab) SNP gain
6. East Renfrewshire (Lab) Lab hold
7. Edinburgh South (Lab) SNP gain
8. Halesowen and Rowley Regis (Con) Lab gain
9. North Cornwall (Lib Dem) LD hold
10. Norwich North (Con) Lab gain
11. St Ives (Lib Dem) LD hold
12. Stevenage (Con)Lab gain
13. Torbay (Lib Dem) Con gain
14. Watford (Con) Lab gain
15. Wirral West (Con) Lab gain

 

Conservatives over/under - 284.5 under 259

Labour over/under - 272.5 over 301
Liberal democrats - 26.5 under 24
SNP - 49.5 over 53
UKIP - 3.5 over 5
Plaid Cymru - 3.5 over 6
Green Party -0.5 Over 2

[Ron&Hermione]

It's the final full day to enter (you can enter Thursday before midday), and as it stands this competition is the easiest way to get a free meal from hungry house. I mean at the moment 75% of participants will be receiving a prize!

[JNLister]

1. Cannock Chase (CON) Lab Gain
2. Cheadle (Lib Dem) LD Hold
3. Dumfries and Galloway (Lab) SNP Gain
4. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (Con) SNP Gain
5. Dunfermline and West Fife (Lab) SNP Gain
6. East Renfrewshire (Lab) Lab Hold
7. Edinburgh South (Lab) SNP Gain
8. Halesowen and Rowley Regis (Con) Con Hold
9. North Cornwall (Lib Dem) LD Hold
10. Norwich North (Con) Con Hold
11. St Ives (Lib Dem) LD Hold
12. Stevenage (Con) Lab Gain
13. Torbay (Lib Dem) LD Hold
14. Watford (Con) Con Hold
15. Wirral West (Con) Lab Gain



Conservatives over/under - 284.5: UNDER, 275
Labour over/under - 272.5, UNDER, 273
Liberal Democrats - 26.5, UNDER, 27
SNP - 49.5, UNDER, 46
UKIP - 3.5, UNDER, 3
Plaid Cymru - 3.5, UNDER 3
Green Party -0.5, OVER 1

[SpursRiot2012]

1. Cannock Chase (CON) Lab Gain
2. Cheadle (Lib Dem) LD Hold
3. Dumfries and Galloway (Lab) SNP Gain
4. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (Con) Con Hold
5. Dunfermline and West Fife (Lab) Lab Hold
6. East Renfrewshire (Lab) SNP Gain
7. Edinburgh South (Lab) SNP Gain
8. Halesowen and Rowley Regis (Con) Lab Gain
9. North Cornwall (Lib Dem) Con Gain
10. Norwich North (Con) Con Hold
11. St Ives (Lib Dem) Con Gain
12. Stevenage (Con) Lab Gain
13. Torbay (Lib Dem) LD Hold
14. Watford (Con) Con Hold
15. Wirral West (Con) Lab Gain



Conservatives over/under - 284.5: UNDER, 282
Labour over/under - 272.5, UNDER, 265
Liberal Democrats - 26.5, UNDER, 25
SNP - 49.5, OVER, 50
UKIP - 3.5, UNDER, 3
Plaid Cymru - 3.5, UNDER 3
Green Party -0.5, OVER 1

 

 

[gary v1]

1. Cannock Chase Con hold
2. Cheadle Lib Dem hold
3. Dumfries and Galloway SNP gain
4. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Con Hold
5. Dunfermline and West Fife (Lab) SNP Gain
6. East Renfrewshire (Lab) SNP Gain
7. Edinburgh South (Lab) SNP Gain
8. Halesowen and Rowley Regis (Con) Con Hold
9. North Cornwall (Lib Dem) Lib Dem hold
10. Norwich North (Con) Con hold
11. St Ives (Lib Dem) Lib Dem Hold
12. Stevenage (Con) Lab gain
13. Torbay (Lib Dem) Lib Dem Hold
14. Watford (Con) Lab Gain
15. Wirral West (Con) Con Hold



Conservatives over/under - 284.5 over 286
Labour over/under - 272.5 under 271
Liberal democrats - 26.5 over 30
SNP - 49.5 over 55
UKIP - 3.5 under 2
Plaid Cymru - 3.5 under 3
Green Party -0.5 over 1

[Sphinx]

How come there's £50 worth of prizes? Is that out of your own money?

[Ron&Hermione]

Yeah, it's from me! Just some fun to give back to the ukff really, come to think about it I should really get a sponsor. Maybe in the future it can be sponsored by Butch's podcast.

 

Anyway, get your predictions in. I know it's a wrestling forum but we can't have Mania predictions being quadruple what the elections are!

[cleslie92]

1. Cannock Chase (CON) Labour gain
2. Cheadle (Lib Dem) Lib Dem hold
3. Dumfries and Galloway (Lab) SNP gain
4. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (Con) SNP gain
5. Dunfermline and West Fife (Lab) Labour hold
6. East Renfrewshire (Lab) Labour hold
7. Edinburgh South (Lab) SNP gain
8. Halesowen and Rowley Regis (Con) Labour gain
9. North Cornwall (Lib Dem) Lib Dem hold
10. Norwich North (Con) Labour gain
11. St Ives (Lib Dem) Lib Dem hold
12. Stevenage (Con) Labour gain
13. Torbay (Lib Dem) Lib Dem hold
14. Watford (Con) Tory hold
15. Wirral West (Con) Labour gain

 

Conservatives over/under - 287.5 OVER 288

Labour over/under - 270.5 UNDER 268
Liberal democrats - 26.5 OVER 28
SNP - 47.5 UNDER 46
UKIP - 3.5 UNDER 2
Plaid Cymru - 3.5 UNDER 3
Green Party -0.5 OVER 1

[SpursRiot2012]

Anyone win any prizes, Ron? If so, I hope you didn't lose too much forex betting

[Ron&Hermione]

Anyone win any prizes, Ron? If so, I hope you didn't lose too much forex betting

 

They did indeed, sorry I would have done this earlier but given as I was a super nerd and stayed up for the whole election then went to work means I fell straight asleep when I got home.

 

Yeah, stupid Pound actually rose against the dollar. So for all those saying white middle class guys would be better off with a Tory government, think again!

 

Anyway, so here are the scoring results from last night/morning/afternoon (thank you St Ives).

 

(All correct answers reward 1 point, except for the exact party seat totals. 15 possible points for part one, 7 possible points for part two and 35 possible points for part three.)

 

1. Cannock Chase (CON) - CON HOLD

2. Cheadle (Lib Dem) - CON GAIN

3. Dumfries and Galloway (Lab) - SNP GAIN

4. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (Con) - CON HOLD

5. Dunfermline and West Fife (Lab) - SNP GAIN

6. East Renfrewshire (Lab) - SNP GAIN

7. Edinburgh South (Lab) - LAB HOLD

8. Halesowen and Rowley Regis (Con) - CON HOLD

9. North Cornwall (Lib Dem) - CON GAIN

10. Norwich North (Con) - CON HOLD

11. St Ives (Lib Dem) - CON GAIN

12. Stevenage (Con) - CON HOLD

13. Torbay (Lib Dem) - CON GAIN

14. Watford (Con) - CON HOLD

15. Wirral West (Con) - LAB GAIN

 

 

Conservatives over/under - 287.5 OVER - 331

Labour over/under - 270.5 UNDER - 232

Liberal democrats - 26.5 UNDER - 8

SNP - 47.5 OVER - 56

UKIP - 3.5 UNDER - 1

Plaid Cymru - 3.5 UNDER - 3

Green Party -0.5 OVER - 1

 

 

 

Now that's out of the way lets get to the actual results, which will be done in reverse order for obvious suspense reasons.

 

 

The Nick Clegg Memorial Trophy.

9 points

= Fog Dude

= Glenryck Pilchards

 

Having a pint with Farage.

20 points

cleslie92

 

If you live by the stats, you die by the stats.

22 points

JNLister

 

Could this result be any more Spursish?

25 points

SpursRiot2012

 

If only David stood instead.

26 points

The Duke

 

Nicola Sturgeon is not a Queen, she is a Khaleesi.

27 points

gary v1

 

David "Dear Leader, who is a perfect incarnation of the appearance that a leader should have" Cameron.

28 points

PowerButchi

 

 

 

I got a score of 23 points, though its fairly obvious those polls threw everyone off. Most of the constituencies chosen were Tory battlegrounds and given as we all thought they had no chance in hell to win that meant scores were on the low end. The difference really was calling the smaller parties, with Butch correctly guessing two totals (UKIP & Greens) and finishing one away in another two (SNP & Plaid Cymru).

 

 

For the three who got prizes, check your inbox to let me know what to get/where to send. If its full then just send me over a message.

 

Thanks for playing, and i'm sure I will find another excuse to run one of these at some point.