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Election Predictions Competition


Ron&Hermione

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3. Dumfries and Galloway (Lab) - SNP gain

5. Dunfermline and West Fife (Lab) - SNP gain

6. East Renfrewshire (Lab) - SNP gain

7. Edinburgh South (Lab) - Lab hold

 

15. Wirral West (Con) - Lab gain

 

SNP - 49.5: over at 54

 

These were the only ones I got right, albeit two seats out in the case of the SNP. Getting to share the Clegg memorial trophy is apt.

 

A couple of months ago I had Dumfries and East Renfrewshire down as Labour holds - possibly even a Tory gain in the former. Only changed my mind about neighbouring Dumfriesshire about a week before the election due to the scale of the SNP landslide. Also but misread the political mood (probably mistaking my own fears and preferences for wider public opinion), thinking there'd be a late swing away from the Tories in England. In the context of the opposite happening, it shows how personally unpopular Esther McVey must be to have lost on the Wirral.

 

I also originally thought Cannock, Halesowen, N Norfolk and Stevenage would all be holds, but allowed myself to be convinced otherwise. Couldn't have foreseen the scale of the Lib Dem collapse in Tory-facing seats though. Voters were utterly ruthless and unforgiving. Dorothy Thornhill was nowhere near to taking Watford, whilst I never imagined Torbay and the two Cornish seats would succumb to a South West wipeout. Cheadle was always a possibility to revert to blue. Hazel Grove nextdoor wasn't part of this competition, but that fell too, probably suffering from the lack of an incumbent.

 

Plaid's failure to take Anglesey and to be way behind in Cardiganshire and Llanelli was a bit of a shocker too.

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Ah awesome, 2nd place.  Can't believe I thought that Lib Dems would get 30 seats though.  Damn you Clegg, letting me down again!

 

Thanks for the offer of a voucher but it's ok, was just doing it for some fun.  Thanks for organising!

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