UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski - May 8th

[Supremo]

I'm super excited for this show. The main event is a genuine dream match and I'm more invested in Munoz vs. Barnatt than any undercard match in ages. Love Mark, hate Luke. Mark is a genuinely awesome guy, whereas Luke is a complete bell-end. Add the retirement storyline and you couldn't ask for anything more. Hoping for Mark to sail off into the sunset with a win, leaving Luke to deal with his third loss in a row. Hopefully they'll cut him. Not since James McSweeney have I found such perverse enjoyment watching someone lose a fight.

 

Picking Edgar, by the way. Guy is on a tear right now. If I'm being totally honest I expect him to be champion by the end of the year.

[David]

What time does the FightPass fights start tomorrow in UK time? Anyone know?

[Egg Shen]

This is going to be outstanding!

[wandshogun09]

What time does the FightPass fights start tomorrow in UK time? Anyone know?

Fight Pass prelims - 12pm

FOX Sports 1 prelims - 1pm

Main Card - 3pm

 

And for anyone watching on BT Sport, they're showing the main card on delay at 10pm on BT Sport 1.

[David]

Right, here goes for the next instalment of Degenerate Dave's descent into debt and destitution, an early morning betting spree if you will.

 

To recap, I'll be betting £15 per event, but I've now switched the format to £3 on five bets, nice & simple.

 

All bets will be made on Paddypower.com, and I'll point out that the aim here isn't always winning big, but winning consistently. I want to see if I can basically make it through a year of events and come out with a decent profit overall and a winning record of note.

 

So, for this event i'm heading in with a cash record of -£0.50, and with an 11-2 record from 3 events thus far. I got the Pepey and Maia results wrong.

 

My five picks are as follows;

 

Nolan Ticman to win over Zhuikui Yao at 1/3. A win sees me take £4.00.

Levan Makashvili to win over Mark Eddiva at 1/4. A win sees me take £3.75.

Yui Chul Nam to win over Phillipe Nover at 8/15. A win sees me take £4.60.

Gegard Mousasi to win over Costas Philippou at 1/6. A win sees me take £3.50.

Frankie Edgar to win over Urijah Faber at 1/4. A win sees me take £3.75.

 

As an extra feature to this I'm going to put forward a few interesting bets that won't be included in the main game, but are simply there as possible tips for anyone looking for a way to lose their money. I'll chart these as well simply out of curiosity.

 

For this event i'm going to be throwing down £5 on Yui Chul Nam to beat Phillipe Nover by KO. This sees a return of £18. I'll also be throwing down £5 on Hyun Gyu Lim to beat Neil Magny, which will see me double my money with £10 return.

[Pickers]

VIDEO: Epic Judo Contest

 

World champ Ebinuma (JPN) v 5x world medallist Zantaraia (UKR). 

Link:http://on.fb.me/1B1NJeJme/1B1NJeJ

[wandshogun09]

Who's everyone picking then? Say the top three fights?

 

Edgar vs Faber - I'm going Edgar by decision.

 

I don't think he'll finish Faber but I think he'll do enough to take the points. I can see Faber having his moments but I think Edgar is the better boxer and the better wrestler. And I also think he can match Faber for pace and cardio, which is usually an advantage for Faber in his fights. I think Faber is the better overall striker and he might even have a bit more power, although nether is a KO artist. Maybe a tad quicker as well. But I think Edgar is a good enough wrestler that he'll be able to dictate the fight more and for longer than Faber can.

 

The picture I posted on the last page from the weigh in isn't worth reading into much on the size difference. I finally watched the weigh in and Edgar was indeed in trainers and Faber was barefoot, so they'll probably be around the same size in the cage. I still think Edgar will seem like the bigger stronger man though. He's used to mixing with bigger opponents and his grappling technique is incredible.

 

I actually have been thinking Faber might be starting to show early slight signs of slowing down over the last year or so. His last three fights he got stopped in a round by Barao, which fair enough, that was Barao. But then he took a step back and took a couple of tune-ups against Alex Caceres and Francisco Rivera and I didn't think he looked too sharp in either fight, to be honest. He tapped Caceres in the end but he made fairly hard work of it. Then the Rivera fight, I thought Rivera was getting the better of him before Faber accidentally poked him in the eye, and that lead directly to Faber winning.

 

Maybe I'm reading too much into it but for a guy we've seen destroying guys like McDonald, Bowles, Jorgensen etc to suddenly start looking a bit off against guys like Caceres and Rivera, I don't know, he's 35 now and has had a long career. Maybe he's slipping. Not taking anything away from Caceres or Rivera either, I really like both, but they really should've been showcases for Faber and he just didn't really look at the races.

 

But...maybe Faber was just underwhelmed and not as motivated for those lower card opponents. It's certainly possible. And this Edgar fight is a huge chance for him to get back into the mix with the top guys again. Plus he might be rejuvenated by not having to cut so much weight.

 

It's a great fight. In the end though...Edgar on points.

 

Mousasi vs Philippou - it should be fun to watch but I just can't see past Mousasi stopping him within two rounds tops. I like Philippou but he's really just got a punchers chance here. He's a solid boxer with some power but Mousasi is better at everything else. Better kickboxer, he's younger, he's got the reach and he's definitely a better grappler.

 

I reckon Mousasi ends up subbing him. Late round one, early round two-ish. Rear naked choke.

 

Munoz vs Barnatt - is tricky. I actually don't really rate Barnatt much at all. I don't think he's anywhere near as hot a prospect as he seems to think he is. Apart from being 6'6", nothing stands out about him. Except those fucking ears and his strange green-eyed grudge against Conor McGregor's success.

 

So ordinarily I'd pick Munoz. But Munoz has looked shot to fuck in recent fights and it's common knowledge that he's been mentally checked out of MMA for a while and was just sticking around to fight one last time on this Philippines card. That's the only reason I'm unsure about this one.

 

But I'm hoping the fact it's his farewell fight and in the Philippines will light a match under his arse and he'll come in fired up and smash Barnatt. I definitely think Munoz has the tools to do it, it's most likely going to be a case of whether he's mentally on for this fight. Which you'd expect he will be. He's got the wrestling advantage easily, he's more powerful and he's mixed at a vastly higher level than Barnatt ever has.

 

Fuck it, Munoz by crush. Round two. Ground and pound. Lots of blood.

[wandshogun09]

Decent enough show, nothing special.

 

Edgar vs Faber wasn't a FOTY candidate or anything but I really enjoyed it. I had Edgar by either 50-45 or 49-46, so I had him taking four or five rounds. Doesn't really tell the whole story though because it certainly wasn't a domination. Faber was always competitive, Edgar was just doing that bit more to win the rounds. I thought the third and fifth rounds were Edgar's clearly, the rest were fairly close.

 

Good fight. Not sure where Faber goes from here, to be honest. He was on about fighting McGregor in Ireland recently. Maybe if Aldo beats McGregor they can do that. Aside from that, he's pretty much fought all the top bantamweights already and I'm not sure where he fits in at 145 now. Maybe do Faber vs Swanson actually.

 

For Edgar, it's got to be a title shot next, hasn't it? But if Aldo vs McGregor ends controversially, or if McGregor wins, they'll probably go with McGregor vs Aldo 2.

 

Chuffed to see Munoz go out on that note. Pretty fun fight as well. I wish he'd have got the finish but at least he win. Nice moment post-fight as well.

 

Wasn't crazy about the rest of the main card. Nothing terrible but all instantly forgettable.

[METAL ON METAL]

Pretty mediocre show, nothing much of note. Glad Munoz got the win, cracking speech from him afterwards - who knew he was so natural on the mic.

 

Jon Delos Reyes vs. Roldan Sangcha-an from the prelims is well worth checking out, nice little scrap.

[Guy Bifkin]

The Mark Munoz fight made it for me. Munoz fought at my first experience of MMA at 162 and they played a video interview with him that night where he talked about his battle with depression. It shattered a lot of my preconceptions about cage fighters at the time and I've always had a huge soft spot for him since.

 

I quite enjoyed the Magnay comeback but Mousasi and Edgar played it very safe and had comfortable wins in the end. How many fucking times did Faber grab the cage!?

[wandshogun09]

Yeah the ref was way too soft on Faber's cage grabbing. What's the point in saying 'don't grab the fence' if you're not going to follow it through with a penalty? You should get two warnings tops, then points should start coming off.

 

I think the problem Edgar had wasn't so much that he was playing safe. I just think he was having trouble keeling Faber down once he scored takedowns. Faber would pop back up so it just looked like Edgar was taking him down and not taking advantage but he never really had chance to do much on the ground because every time he tried to do anything like advance position, Faber was out of there. And on the feet, Edgar was trying to come forward but Faber wasn't nearly as aggressive as he usually is and was happy to hang back and try to counter, one shot at a time. I think Edgar really wanted to make a statement last night but Faber fought in a way that was tricky and appeared to throw him off at times. I expected Faber to be more the aggressor with Frankie countering but it was the other way around.

 

Forgot about Magny vs Lim. That was better than I expected. Best fight Magny's been involved in in the UFC easy. Lim just seems like one of those fighters it's nearly impossible to have a shit fight with.

[Supremo]

Loved absolutely everything involving Mark Munoz on this show. Great performance in the cage, even greater performance on the microphone afterwards. What a brilliant, classy, awesome way to retire, for such a cool guy. Couldn't have been happier with how that fight went down.

 

I was always a fan of Mark, but it was after meeting him in Manchester a few years ago that I really got a taste of what a top bloke he was. He was fighting Machida, and for whatever reason they completely fucked up with the security after their weigh in. There essentially wasn't any. Between the stage door and the bus back to the hotel there wasn't a single bit of security, and about a thousand fans waiting to grab a photo or an autograph from any fighter they could. Almost every other trainer or fighter was fucking furious, shouting and screaming about what a complete shambles it was. Mark on the other hand thought the whole thing was hilarious and was happy to chat and pose with practically everyone, despite only just getting off the scales. He was shovelling jacket spuds into his gob whilst laughing and joking with everyone and it was fucking brilliant.

 

Guys were literally diving at him and grabbing him by the neck to pose for a photo, it looked like a borderline riot, and Mark was completely unphased. I can't remember exactly but I'm sure he ended up holding the bus up by being such a great guy. That was my fiance's first ever experience with the UFC and she immediately fell in love with him, which unfortunately made it all the more devastating when Machida kicked his head off twenty four hours later.

 

But yeah, a genuinely touching moment there. A rarity considering the millions of identical UFC shows we get every year.

[Egg Shen]

Ahhh, i wasn't really feeling Edgar/Faber. It felt like a 5 round feeling out process. Neither guy seemed to get to grips with the timing of the other guys footwork which led to lots of jumping in and out with strikes and very little landing. It wasn't poor, but it was 25 minutes of the same thing.

[wandshogun09]

Love that Munoz story, Supremo. It doesn't surprise me either. I've never heard anyone say a bad word about him. Even when Chael was scheduled to fight Munoz at some point, he couldn't bring himself to talk shit on him. I remember seeing him fight Chris Leben on one of the Birmingham shows and the crowd in my section were booing Munoz. I think it was just a really pro-Leben crowd moreso than an anti-Munoz one but I felt bad for Munoz.

 

Anyway. Moving on...

 

The UFC heads to Goiania, Brazil on May 30th with this bad boy;

 

 

FOX SPORTS 1 MAIN CARD

Carlos Condit vs Thiago Alves

Charles Oliveira vs Nik Lentz

KJ Noons vs Alex Oliveira

Ryan Jimmo vs Francimar Barroso

Francisco Trinaldo vs Norman Parke

Wendell Oliveira vs Darren Till

 

FOX SPORTS 1 PRELIMS

Rony Jason vs Damon Jackson

Jussier Formiga vs Wilson Reis

Nicolas Dalby vs Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos

Lucas Martins vs Mirsad Bektic

 

FIGHT PASS PRELIMS

Juliana Lima vs Ericka Almeida

Luiz Dutra vs Tom Breese

 

I think that's a pretty strong lineup for a Brazil Fight Night.

 

Condit vs Alves is a bit of a dream fight for me. Two of my favourite fighters to watch. And in one of the deepest divisions in MMA, these two stand out as being known for being exciting fighters.

 

 

Carlos Condit is 31 years old and fights out of Greg Jackson's gym in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Former WEC welterweight champion, former interim UFC welterweight champion. Holds wins over the likes of Nick Diaz, Rory MacDonald, Jake Ellenberger, Martin Kampmann and Dan Hardy.

 

He's known for being one of the most entertaining fighters in MMA. Always aggressive wherever the fight goes. Dangerous striking, slick submissions, an active and attacking guard, incredible pace and cardio and a ridiculous chin and ability to come back from adversity in a fight. The only thing he really lacks is a strong wrestling base, which is where he's ultimately came up short in big fights with Georges St Pierre and Johny Hendricks, although he still had his moments in those fights as well, badly rocking both.

 

Basically, Condit is a beast. What sums him up is his record. He's 29-8. So he's had 37 MMA fights. And against the absolute best of the best. Yet he's only been to a decision four times.

 

Condit highlight;

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&persist_app=1&v=qfaVg17W8PA

 

His opponent...

 

 

Thiago Alves is also 31 years old and is a long time member of American Top Team in Coconut Creek, Florida. Like Condit, he's also got a rep for being fun to watch and aggressive in all areas. Known mostly for his Muay Thai and especially his vicious leg kicks, he's also got really solid takedown defence and some pretty good BJJ. His main career obstacle has been staying healthy. He's still relatively young but he's spent a fair old chunk of what should be his prime years on the shelf injured. Typically he returns, usually looks good then finds himself injured again within a couple of fights or so. It's really fucked with his ability to build up any kind of momentum or consistency.

 

He holds wins over Matt Hughes, Josh Koscheck, Karo Parisyan, Chris Lytle and Jordan Mein. And also like Condit, he's only been to the judges scorecards four times in a 30 fight career.

 

Alves highlight;

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&persist_app=1&v=Eg32hw-ufrY

 

As you can probably tell, I can't wait for this fight. I don't really know what to expect. Condit's coming back from a year-plus layoff due to a knee injury. Coming back off a leg injury, fighting a leg kicking wrecking ball like Alves isn't ideal. But Condit is usually much more consistent than Alves has been and I think he's got a few more tools.

 

 

It should be a cracking fight whatever happens.

 

The co-main event;

 

 

Oliveira vs Lentz 2 is a rematch of their 2011 fight on the undercard of the memorable Cheick Kongo vs Pat Barry fight. It was a great fight that got FOTN honours, but it wasn't without controversy. Oliveira cracked Lentz with an illegal knee in the second round while Lentz was grounded, the ref somehow missed this and Oliveira pounced and put a groggy as fuck Lentz away with a rear naked choke for the submission.

 

 

Due to the controversial nature of the finish, the fight was later ruled a no contest.

 

And so here we are. A rematch four years in the making. They were actually supposed to rematch last September on the Jacare vs Mousasi 2 Fight Night but the fight got binned on the day of the show because Oliveira, who had missed weight the day before, was fucked up from the weight cut and pulled from the card altogether. Hopefully there'll be none of that carry on this time.

 

Noons vs Cabral is pure striking vs grappling. Noons' boxing vs Cabral's BJJ. Could be an interesting clash of styles.

 

Trinaldo vs Parke will probably be a decent main card opener. Trinaldo is kind of similar in build and style to Gleison Tibau, who beat Parke in his last fight. Don't know if that means anything really and I'd say Tibau is a trickier fight than Trinaldo, still a tough fight for Stormin Norman though.

 

Highlights of the prelims for me are the top two fights - Rony Jason vs Damon Jackson and Jussier Formiga vs Wilson Reis. I like Rony Jason, fun fighter and comes from Team Nogueira and the Pitbull brothers so I was always going to root for him.

 

Formiga vs Reis has a realistic chance of stealing the show IMO. Could be a total grappling masterclass.

 

That's about it. Not a stacked card but there's a good three or four fights there that I'm very much into. You can't go wrong with Condit vs Alves. And Oliveira vs Lentz 2, providing it actually happens this time, should be great as well.

[Egg Shen]

 

Noons vs Cabral is pure striking vs grappling. Noons' boxing vs Cabral's BJJ. Could be an interesting clash of styles.

 

 

these are the kinds of fights i enjoy watching these days, i still think MMA is at it's most interesting when there's guys fighting with two distinctive set of styles on display.