UFC on FOX 4: 'Shogun vs Vera'

[wandshogun09]

Now I know we've got UFC 149 before this but these FOX cards usually generate more discussion than the usual UFC's and this show's only 3 weeks away now. This actually looks like a better card than 149 to me on paper aswell to be honest.

 

I was thinking, with all these UFC events now and some forum members recently getting sick of all the MMA threads, shall we just have this as the UFC on FOX thread? And I'll update the title/dates/polls etc as and when the FOX shows happen? Would save us keep making new threads. We could do a Fight Night thread aswell for all the FX/FUEL stuff and just bump it like the Strikeforce one.

 

Just an idea.

 

 

FOX MAIN CARD

Shogun Rua vs Brandon Vera

Lyoto Machida vs Ryan Bader

Joe Lauzon vs Jamie Varner

Mike Swick vs DaMarques Johnson

 

FUEL PRELIMS

Cole Miller vs Nam Phan

Phil Davis vs Wagner Prado

Josh Grispi vs Rani Yahya

Phil De Fries vs Oli Thompson

Manny Gamburyan vs Michihiro Omigawa

Ulysses Gomez vs John Moraga

 

I like the look of this card. Like we discussed before, they could have done Shogun vs Machida 3 for this which would have been a great main event but this is still a good card.

 

Shogun vs Vera is one I've said already that I'm not sure about. People are quick to say Shogun will wreck him but I'm not sure at all about that. Vera's not been relevant for years but this is a good style match for him I think. And Shogun's always getting injured, it's like he's made of porcelain. I hope the majority are right and Shogun destroys him but I'll be honest, I'm worried about this one. Got a bad feeling ever since it was announced.

 

Listen to this interview with Vera on the MMA Hour

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0n8UPhqfRNQ

 

He sounds well up for this, he could wash away a lot of the sour taste and disappointment people have of him with an impressive win here. He has everything to gain in this fight and he's got a very real chance of winning imo.

 

I think Machida should beat Bader. Browne/Rothwell is a fight I wouldn't have been looking forward to but after seeing Rothwell's last fight he looked rejuvinated and in the best physical shape I've ever seen him in. He's put the graft in big time and he looks motivated. Travis Browne is coming into his own now aswell, the way he ran through Chad Griggs and especially the way he threw that Aldo-like flying knee was scary for a man his size. Could be a good heavyweight fight.

 

The prelims look excellent. Lauzon/Varner and Miller/Phan could be great. Glad De Fries/Thompson is back on, and fucking hell Swick's back!!

[Shane O' Mac Version 2]

UFC on Fox is a 4 fight main card, Lauzon vs. Varner is on Fox as that lovely poster shows.

 

I like this card, seems like they've found the right mix of big stars and action here. People are down on Vera but he does seem motivated, and let's not forget his last two losses were to HOF'er Couture and Jon Jones, hardly slouches in their own right. I actually think Bader can shut Machida down with his wrestling, he did it to a larger Rampage and he's not slow, so I think he can close the distance on Machida. Tentatively voting for Bader via UD, but if Machida's TDD is good then Bader is fucked and probably get TKO'd early. Who knows really.

 

Most of the fights look pretty tidy, I can't be bothered analysing each one, but I think the Miller/Phan fight especially will be a blast, and good to see Meathead back!

 

EDIT: Also, well on board with your MMA thread ideas. Allows us all our discussion without the non-MMA fans moaning

[wandshogun09]

Oh Lauzon/Varner's on the main card? I copied the line up from MMAJunkie.and they have the 3 fight main card at the moment. Is it defo confirmed?

 

Good point on Vera's losses. No shame losing to Jones, the Thiago Silva loss was tainted by Thiago giving inhuman piss and failing his test and the Couture fight I still think Vera won.

 

I get why everyone's lost belief in Vera. I have aswell. He hasn't looked good even in his wins in ages. But I've always thought it's a mental thing with him. He's got the skills where in my opinion he should be doing a lot better than he is. He's never really been outstruck on the feet, has the Greco background so won't be easy to take down, decent grappling, plus he has some nasty leg kicks....and we all know about Shogun's dodgy knees.

 

I've just got a bad feeling about this. Hope Shogun smashes him though.

[Shane O' Mac Version 2]

Yeah the UFC site lists Lauzon/Varner as a main card fight. I think Lauzon will be too much for Varner, he had a nice win against Barboza but Barboza was doing fine before that big punch.

 

I'm not saying Vera will win, I've still picked Shogun by KO/TKO, but I think he'll definitely make a competitive fight of it, it won't be the one-sided beatdown many are expecting. Vera had nice early success in his career, especially the Mir win, but I've always thought Mir was vastly overrated himself. Vera was thrown to the wolves early after that, and he was never a true heavyweight. That shattered his confidence, which was extremely high, he called out Liddell and proclaimed he would be a two-division champion. To be humbled from those highs takes a lot out of an athlete I'd imagine.

[wandshogun09]

Couple of changes/additions to the card.

 

Meathead vs Rob Broughton has been scratched from this altogether. Apparently Broughton has some stuff to deal with and pulled out. Maybe they'll get a replacement in for Meathead but it's probably unlikely now.

 

And Ulysses Gomez vs John Moraga has been added and will stream on Facebook.

 

Really looking forward to this. Still can't shake the bad feeling about the main event but I hope I'm wrong and Shogun destroys him.

[Shane O' Mac Version 2]

Yeah, I read that elsewhere about Meathead. Hopefully they book him in another fight ASAP. He's been in a training camp and it's getting close to a year since he last fought, well, October anyway. Normally I'd say a rookie having a year to work on training and skills, stepping away from the hype, is a good thing. The difference here, Mitrione is 34 and has had a football career prior to MMA where he most likely picked up a nagging injury or two. His MMA clock is ticking IMO.

[Egg Shen]

Mike Fucking Stick!!

[Bus Surfer]

Damn, wonder what happened to Broughton. I was looking forward to Mitrione's return. It does seem such a long time since that awful fight he had with Kongo. Hopefully they'll throw him in with someone else, can't think of anyone though.

[Swift89]

Damn, wonder what happened to Broughton. I was looking forward to Mitrione's return. It does seem such a long time since that awful fight he had with Kongo. Hopefully they'll throw him in with someone else, can't think of anyone though.

 

Mitrione was on the MMA Hour a few weeks back and was saying that Broughton was having some problems with his visa, so it could be something related to that?

[wandshogun09]

Just seen this article on Shogun vs Vera over on BloodyElbow

 

Does Brandon Vera Actually Have Zero Chance?

 

You hear it all the time: "anything can happen in MMA". Or was it that "anything can happen in the WWF"? Or was it that "sometimes these things happen in MMA"? Regardless, I recall Pat Miletich, among others, sighting the multiplicity of ways to lose that made amassing recors like those held by top tier pro boxers extremely difficult in the sport. Unless, you're Fedor, anyway."

 

So you'd think that there must be at least some way in which Brandon Vera can beat Shogun Rua on August 4th. Maybe a puncher's chance? Maybe he could clinch or lay on Rua for a 29-28 decision? Catch him in a submission? Something?

 

Well, this is one of the rare times where, thinking about the fight, I just don't see a single path for victory for Vera. None. Zero. Zilch.

 

On paper, Vera should be the better wrestler, but Vera hasn't shown that wrestling in years, if ever. Just a couple of fights ago, we even saw him get soundly outwrestled and taken down with ease by BJJ black belt and muay thai specialist Thiago Silva. You'd think Silva had the wrestling background in that fight, and not Vera. Moreover, Vera's background is as a Greco-Roman - he'd be looking for the clinch against Rua (a dangerous proposition in and of itself) instead of shooting in, which he's never shown a penchant for doing anyway.

 

But what if he catches Rua with a lucky punch? Well, not counting his leg kick win over Mike Patt, a quick look shows that Vera hasn't stopped anyone with strikes since upsetting Frank Mir in 2006. And now he's supposed to knock out Rua, a guy who ate around twenty H-Bombs and kept on coming? Worse still, striking seems to be Vera's strongest facet these days, but he's never fought a striker of Rua's caliber, ever. The closest he came was Thiago Silva, and while his stand-up looked good there, he also got mauled. Moreover, even though it's been a few years, it's hard to forget Vera's losing a largely stand-up fight to Keith Jardine and going the distance with Soszynski, a guy that Stephan Bonnar of all people would put away just a couple fights later.

 

As far as catching Rua in a submission, that's even more unlikely. Rua, a long-time BJJ black belt and Vera, a guy with one submission win....again way back in 2006.

 

Breaking down the fight, I just don't see a single way in which Brandon Vera can win this fight. Rua has fought, and beaten, fighters vastly superior to Vera in every aspect of the game whereas Rua may be the stiffest test of Vera's career not named Jon Jones. Vera hasn't garnered a submission or, barring the win over Mike Patt, a knockout in six years, and is now facing a crazy durable light heavyweight in Shogun. And wrestling-wise, well, that aspect of Vera's game may as well have never existed at this point.

 

So....any ideas on how Brandon Vera can win this fight? Because barring Shogun rolling over of a freak heart attack in the cage, I'm stumped.

 

I really don't get this. Sure, Shogun's the favourite I get that. He's a former UFC champion, former Pride GP winner, beat Machida, Liddell, Griffin, Overeem, Rampage etc. He's beat the better opposition no doubt. And Vera's not looked great in a long time. So I get why people would pick Shogun to win this fight. But to give Vera zero chance? Don't get it.

 

If you look at their styles, Vera's one of the best strikers at 205. He's never really been bettered in a striking match and Shogun is most likely to stand with him.

 

 

Vera's also a very underrated grappler and has good takedown defense as shown against Randy Couture. Thiago Silva dominated him but Thiago was also fucking huge and failed post fight tests for that fight.

 

Shogun's taken a lot of damage over the years aswell. His injury troubles are well documented. His knees are fucked, he's had injuries with his shoulder or collarbone too.

 

 

 

And if you look at the fights he had in 2011, he had a rough year. The quick KO over Forrest aside, he took the worst beatings of his career at the hands of Jones and Henderson. He came back against Hendo to dominate late, but who knows what those two fights took out of him long term.

 

 

So Shogun is more banged up than he's ever been in his career, his knees are fragile and he's fighting a Muay Thai striker with nasty leg kicks,

 

 

Shogun might not have the advantage in striking, or grappling. How is that a walkover for Shogun? People are really selling Vera short, which I understand to an extent because he's been so disappointing in the past. But he has the tools to give Shogun a bad night.

 

I don't think he'll finish Shogun. But I could see him nicking a decision just from landing more strikes and maybe getting the odd takedown or something. I won't be surprised if Shogun wins but we really don't know what Shogun we're getting here. I give Shogun the edge in power but technically Vera might be a better striker.

 

I'm a massive Shogun fan, so you'd think I'd be biased but I don't understand why so many are so quick to count Vera out of this one. Vera seems hugely fired up aswell, and you have to wonder how motivated Shogun will be fighting Vera after mixing with the likes of Hendo, Jones, Machida etc.

 

I'm holding off on making a definite prediction yet. I'll wait until fight week and see how Shogun is looking, what Vera's like and stuff. But right now, I'm actually leaning towards a Vera points win

 

Really, really, really hope I'm wrong. Never been a fan of Vera and a loss to him at this stage will be hard for Shogun to bounce back from.

[jimufctna24]

I want Shogun to win but.......

 

Out of all the top guys in the division, the best matchup for Vera is Shogun. Jones and Rashad will outwrestle him and Gustafssen will have too mucg of a reach advantage to get going.

 

Even guys like Griffin are too big and strong. I would like Hendo and Machida to beat him also.

 

Vera is a decent striker, the one thing Shogun has in his pocket is that he is aggressive, Vera does not like to be pushed back. If he can overcome that he may have a chance against Shogun, who I doubt will try and bully Vera with a size advantage in the grappling like Thiago Silva and to a lesser extent Couture did. Shogun is a small 205lbs and could move down to 185lbs in my opinion.

 

Shogun should come out and try and blitz Vera, do not allow him to breathe or get a rhythm going. If he can do that he should polish of Vera fairly early, if not it could be a very close fight. If Shogun comes in looking in bad shape, Vera may be able to do some damage late on if Shogun cannot blitz him, Vera has less miles on his clock than the injury-prone Rua.

 

I have picked Shogun, but Vera is a live dog, no doubt.

[iamtheman]

Ben Rothwell off the card with injury

 

rumoured Devin Cole will replace him

[Egg Shen]

it's all going to pot again.

 

I had no idea the UFC had even signed Devin Cole, or is it only since the injury? he was one of the Strikeforce guys that seemed to have been left behind.

[Egg Shen]

i posted this somewhere on the forum already but im with wandshogun, i really think we're looking at a Vera upset. I am going to drop a few quid on it next weekend too. I just feel it's a good matchup for Vera, in a pure standup fight i think it's a 50/50 fight, maybe slight leaning towards Vera. I also feel the wear and tear on Shogun's body is sure to be apparent, who knows how he comes back from the Hendo fight, i don't think it'll be a war but i think we might see Vera pick Shogun apart slowly over 5 rounds.

 

No ones really gone in and took out Vera standing, and Shogun isn't going to pull out a Thiago Silva/Jon Jones like performance in out muscleing Vera...The disappointment with Vera is never so much that he's bad, it's more that people think he's capable of so much more, i've always fallen into this camp and i think this fight is made for him.

[METAL ON METAL]

Turns out Mitrione was offered the Browne fight but rejected it as he hadn't been training properly lately due to him expecting beforehand that Broughton wouldn't get a visa for the fight. Pretty unprofessional imo, surely he should've realised UFC would want to get a replacement for him.