MMA Champions 2025 * updated

[wandshogun09]

2 hours ago, Panhead said:

Worth the re-read for the photo of Erin Blanchfield! ?

Yeah, with you on that. She’s lovely. She’s been disappointing in the cage this year though. Really thought this might be her breakthrough year but I feel a bit foolish now after seeing how bad she looked in the Fiorot and Namajunas fights. There’s a lot of work to be done.

2 hours ago, Panhead said:

You didn't do too bad with your predictions though! 

I feel like I always do crap on these. The big glaring ones are Volk and Leon losing their gold. I felt like Topuria had a good shot against Volk but didn’t picture his 2024 consisting of back-to-back KOs over Volk and Max. The Leon loss was unexpected though. I was pretty confident he’d beat Belal fairly comfortably. Never saw a domination like that coming at all. Then stuff like picking Bueno Silva? All I can chalk it up to is I just don’t care enough about that division to give it proper thought. The only title change I called correctly this year was Merab at 135.

My picks might look worse after tonight if Pantoja loses the strap as well! 

[wandshogun09]

Alright, the Mrs and kids are asleep. I’m wide awake so I thought I’d get stuck into this. Let’s see how many I get wrong this year. This’ll be a long read.

 

HEAVYWEIGHT: Tom Aspinall

One way or another, I see big Tom ending the year as champ. And I mean the proper champ. None of this interim shite. Surely, right? They can’t drag this out another year. Either Jon Jones finds his bollocks and fights Aspinall, or he vacates the title, or they’re gonna have to strip him. Surely they’re not gonna let him just hold the belt hostage for another year. Obviously, my ideal scenario would see us finally get Jones vs Aspinall for the undisputed title. Because, despite what Dana says, Jones isn’t the undisputed champ. He can’t be, the very fact Tom Aspinall is walking around with another belt that he’s defended means there absolutely is a dispute about who’s the man. Problem is, I highly doubt we see it. I think at some point this year, Jones is gonna relinquish the belt and possibly pursue a fight with Alex Pereira instead. And all the while he’ll continue to take digs at Aspinall every chance he gets, talking him down and being a condescending prick, while having zero intentions of ever actually fighting him. Despite this, Jones fanboys will continue to call him the “GOAT” and they’ll hide behind the flimsy defence of ‘Jones wasn’t ducking Aspinall, the UFC wouldn’t pay him his worth’. Jones and his fans will then sit waiting for Aspinall to lose to someone else, anyone else, so they can somehow claim that as a win for Jones. Meanwhile, Aspinall successfully defends against Ciryl Gane and Jailton Almeida. I think Almeida could actually be an awkward test but Aspinall ends up knocking both out. Jones keeps talking and tweeting about fighting but doesn’t actually fight in 2025. 

Rest of the division plods on. Literally plodding all the way to 2026. There’s nothing to get excited about. Fuck all. Can see them maybe doing a Volkov vs Blaydes rematch just because there’s not really anything else going on for either. Hopefully Sergei Pavlovich gets back in the mix. Derrick Lewis will probably knock some bum out then look awful in his next fight. You know the drill. After that it’s pretty much just a steady stream of useless big slugs. 

I read or heard somewhere recently that Francis Ngannou only has one or two fights left on his PFL contract. I’d say maybe he could come back and finish up his career in the UFC. Ngannou vs Aspinall? Ngannou vs Jones if they could persuade Jones to grow a backbone? Nah, forget it. Dana’s been such a cunt about Ngannou that any possible chances there might have been of him returning have probably been pissed up the wall now. So cheers Dana. Yeah nice one. Best promoter in the world.

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT: Alex Pereira

Feels a bit optimistic going with a 37/38 year old Pereira and there are a couple of potential banana skins he’ll probably have to deal with this year. I think he can get through it but we’ll see. I think they have to go with the Ankalaev fight next. I see all the arguments against that and it’s total bollocks. And I’m not even an Ankalaev fan. I get that he’s a dullard but come on. He is next in line. He’s ranked #1 and he’s the only guy in the Top 5 currently who’s 1) a fresh fight for Pereira and 2) coming off a win. It could be a tricky one but if it happens I think Pereira wins. Beyond that you’re probably looking at a rematch with Jan Blachowicz (if he wins his next fight) or maybe a fight with Carlos Ulberg. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if we get Pereira vs Jamahal Hill 2 if Hill beats Jiri Prochazka at UFC 311. I don’t think a rematch is necessarily warranted there but it’d be the easiest one to promote so I could see it happening.

Not much else even worth mentioning other than I’d like to see Khalil Rountree come back with a win. He took a beating against Pereira but it felt like his stock went up in defeat. Easily one of the most entertaining fighters the 205 division has so hopefully he can get back on track. For all our sakes. If he gets demoralised and fizzles out now, the division somehow gets even shitter.

MIDDLEWEIGHT: Khamzat Chimaev

I’ve picked this fucker to win UFC gold for the past two years now and nothing’s came of it. At this point it’s like sticking with the same numbers on the Lottery. I still think his chances of becoming UFC champion are as good as they ever were, whether it actually happens or not, fuck knows? Just on skills, it genuinely feels like he could potentially take the belt tomorrow. People talk about “weathering the storm” against him but, as we saw last time when he mangled Robert Whittaker’s jaw, it’s much easier said than done. On a good night, I feel like he can beat any 185er on the planet. But there always seems to be so many other factors going on with him that could scupper it. Can he make it through training camp healthy? If he makes it through camp will he make weight? Can he even fight in the US? We’ve got this Du Plessis vs Strickland rematch to get through first but I do think we end up seeing the winner face Khamzat. And again, if it goes longer than a round I could see either having success against him. I think DDP vs Khamzat especially would be barmy. But I can’t see either stopping the takedowns early on and then the question becomes can they survive 5 minutes straight of that. I think I’d favour Khamzat over either at this point. I reckon Khamzat beats the winner of DDP/Strickland around June or July. Then I could see Khamzat defending against Israel Adesanya (coming off beating Imavov) on the annual Abu Dhabi card in October and Khamzat beating him as well. Or…he could just as easily get sick again and not fight all year. It’s part of the game with Khamzat at this point. You just never know. Coming off that incredible performance against Whittaker though, I think this could be a huge year for him.

Not too fussed about the rest of Middleweight. Wouldn’t mind seeing the winner of this upcoming Shara Bullet vs MVP fight go up against Paulo Costa next. Especially if it’s Shara vs Costa. Fluffy Hernandez should get a big fight coming off that win over Michel Pereira. Caio Borralho looks good as well, he deserves something meaningful. Problem is, there isn’t much that gets the juices flowing outside of whatever DDP or Khamzat or Whittaker are doing. Bollocks to Prickland.

WELTERWEIGHT: Shavkat Rakhmonov

One of the tougher picks for me. And if you’d asked me a few months ago I’d have been fairly confident in it. Feels a bit up in the air at 170 now though. Belal Muhammad completely dominating Leon Edwards on UK soil wasn’t how I expected that one to play out. Belal vs Shavkat is gonna be next and I’m not sure how that goes now. Belal beating Edwards and then Shavkat looking very human against Ian Garry has me rethinking everything. I’m gonna stick with Shavkat though. I’m guessing a lot of people are gonna switch up and pick Belal to roll over him now based on their most recent performances but I don’t think it’s that clear cut. Styles make fights. I don’t see Shavkat conceding ground anywhere near as much as Leon did and I don’t see Belal being able to just constantly walk Shavkat down and aggressively wrestle the arse off him with no repercussions. It’s an interesting fight but I’m favouring Shavkat. I’ve got a feeling we see Jack Della Maddalena face Kamaru Usman at some point and beat him. Then Shavkat successfully defends against Maddalena later in the year. Not sure where Garry fits into this though. Maybe give him Belal if he loses to Shavkat?

Rest of the division I reckon we see Leon Edwards vs Joaquin Buckley headline the London card in March and Leon wins but in cautious and not particularly impressive fashion. They could also go with Leon vs Sean Brady but I don’t like the sound of that for Leon. I’d like Colby Covington to disappear, I’d legitimately rather he never fights or appears on my screen again. But I suspect he will at some point. Garry smacking him around would be funny but it’s probably more likely we see Covington vs Gilbert Burns. Looking forward to seeing how far Carlos Prates goes. Could see him against Geoff Neal or even Wonderboy next. Maybe as a Fight Night headliner.

LIGHTWEIGHT: Islam Makhachev

Feels like I’m just taking the easy or obvious route here but I genuinely don’t see any of the current crop dethroning Makhachev in his current form. I think this Tsarukyan rematch coming up might be tougher than a lot of people think but I see Makhachev getting his hand raised. Not sure what would be next for him after that. Looking at the top of the rankings, it’s mostly either guys he’s already beat (Oliveira/Poirier) or guys coming off a decisive loss (Gaethje/Holloway). Makhachev vs Gamrot maybe? I guess they could do that and it wouldn’t be the worst fight they could make but it feels a bit flat. Hopefully there’ll be some big fights made for the first half of the year and a contender will emerge from that. I think because of this lack of exciting challengers, if Makhachev goes 2-0 over Tsarukyan, we might well see something outside the box like Topuria coming up to 155 to fight him. Or maybe Makhachev takes a fight at 170?

I think the fight I most wanna see at 155 this year though, is Charles Oliveira vs Max Holloway 2. Don’t even know how many people remember now but they fought back in 2015 on a Fight Night in Canada but it was all over in less than 2 minutes when Oliveira suffered a torn oesophagus or something weird like that. There’s unfinished business and it would be an even better and definitely bigger fight now. Put Max’s BMF belt on line so it can be 5 rounds. Perfect. If they don’t do this fight, they’re fucking idiots. Also think we’re probably getting Poirier vs Gaethje 3 this year. Just a hunch but they’re 1-1, both finished the other, both were exciting fights. And Poirier seems set on his next fight being his last. Might as well decide the trilogy before he calls it a day.

Elsewhere, I think it’s shit or get off the pot time for Paddy Pimblett. They can’t really protect him anymore. He’s coming off an admittedly impressive win over Bobby Green, he’s ranked #13 now and names like Saint Denis, Fiziev and Moicano are just above him. Seen a lot of rumours recently of Pimblett vs Chandler, which would still be a bit of an attempt at careful matchmaking given Chandler’s age, lack of activity and win/loss ratio. But I wouldn’t hate it. If he does fight Chandler (still ranked #7 somehow) and wins, then he’s swimming with the sharks and would have to fight a Hooker, Gaethje, Oliveira type after that. 

FEATHERWEIGHT: Ilia Topuria

Can’t see him topping his 2024 but I do think he’ll stay on the Featherweight throne throughout 2025. Haven’t seen it confirmed anywhere yet but I’m guessing they’ll go with Topuria vs Volkanovski 2 next. Don’t know how to feel about that, to be honest. I’d never just completely dismiss or count out a fighter as good as Volk but I don’t see a rematch ending well for him. I totally get why he’s taken a year off after those back-to-back KO losses to Makhachev and Topuria. No doubt he’d have needed that break and health is obviously more important than avenging a loss or regaining a title. But still, he’ll be 37 in September and that’s already a great innings for an elite level Featherweight. Age and layoff aside, I just think it’s Topuria’s time and he’s too young, too sharp, too fast and too powerful. I’d say the likely outcome would be Topuria going 2-0. After that, I think it’s gotta be Diego Lopes next. And that’s a stupidly exciting fight on paper. Again though, as dangerous as Lopes is, he’s also a bit wild and reckless and, while that could pay off for him, I think Topuria’s just as dangerous but much better technically and likely puts him away. Would be a hell of a fight to watch though. So yeah, that’s how I see Topuria’s 2025 going. Wins over Volk (again) and Lopes. You’ve got Movsar Evloev lurking as well and he’s undefeated but I can see them just stalling him another year, which is bullshit but you know Dana hates grappling. Wouldn’t be at all shocked if Topuria’s in line to move up and challenge the Lightweight champ by this time next year.

As for the rest of the division, I think we see maybe a couple of combinations of Aljamain Sterling vs Yair Rodriguez vs Arnold Allen. Providing he stays active I think this should be the year we find out if Lerone Murphy is gonna sink or swim, I could see him matched up with Josh Emmett or maybe Brian Ortega. I’ve seen a few calls for Lopes vs Evloev 2 but I can’t see it happening yet. The first fight was great so I wouldn’t be massively against a rematch if everyone else is tied up. But the timing feels a bit off for me.

MENS BANTAMWEIGHT: Umar Nurmagomedov

I get that I’m basing this almost entirely off one top level win over Cory Sandhagen and I’m fully aware that Merab could shit all over this prediction and make me look silly in a matter of weeks at UFC 311. But I get the feeling Umar’s the real deal and I think he’s about to upset a lot of Dagestani haters who are still salty that they never got to see Khabib lose. I think this Merab fight is really tough to call actually and I think, on paper, it might be Umar’s most difficult test style-wise on the horizon for the foreseeable future. But I also think it’s a tough as fuck test for Merab and I think there’s good reason why Merab was so reluctant and against this fight even happening. Not that I think he can’t win, I just think he knows it’s gonna be tougher than the O’Malleys and Yans and so on. The areas where Merab can usually dominate, he might not be able to count on dominating this time. I think it’ll be a gruelling battle but Umar ultimately comes out on top. From there I think he defends it one more time towards the end of the year, probably against Petr Yan or Sean O’Malley, and wins that one as well.

I think we might see a Yan vs O’Malley rematch over 5 rounds at some point to determine a number one contender while Merab vs Umar plays out. As I’ve said above, the winner loses to Umar on one of the big end of year cards. If Yan loses to O’Malley, I wanna see Yan vs Chito. Just to complete that triangle series of Yan vs Figgy vs Chito I was banging on about all last year ? we got two of those fights, Yan vs Chito would neatly tie up the loose ends. Failing that, Song Yadong rematching Chito wouldn’t offend me.

One thing I’m really hoping for this year is that they make better use of Jose Aldo. We’ve all had a moan about it and I’ll continue to moan about it. He’s 38 years old, his time left competing in the sport at a high level is limited. I don’t wanna see any more of him being thrown out there with fringe Top 15 guys who nobody was calling for. He’s only got a handful of fights left, give us Aldo vs Cruz. Give us Aldo vs Cejudo. Fuck, give him a fun fight back up at 145 or something. Don’t give us Aldo vs Montel Jackson in the featured prelim on a card at high altitude in Utah. Get to fuck with that shite.

WOMENS BANTAMWEIGHT: Kayla Harrison

It’s a dogshite division that I’ve had pretty much zero interest in ever since Amanda Nunes retired but Kayla Harrison is the one thing 135 has going for it right now to me. Shame there’s no big fights for her or no really intriguing matchups. Would’ve been cool if she’d came along back when you had the likes of Ronda Rousey, Amanda Nunes, Cris Cyborg and even Miesha Tate on the roster but what can you do? Regardless, she’s here now and all signs and logic seem to be pointing towards her being next in line to challenge Julianna Pena for the title. Pena wants none of it but I don’t think she’s gonna have much say in the matter. The fight should happen in the first half of the year and I can’t see past Harrison winning clearly. If she doesn’t finish Pena, it should at least be a convincing decision. My only concern is the weight cut. That’s gonna be a harder battle for her than Pena will be, I reckon. 

After that, fuck knows? There really isn’t much to get excited about looking at the rankings. I think Norma Dumont actually might get a title shot this year. She’s #4 as I type this and she’s one of the only top ranked Bantamweights who’s coming off wins and is a fresh challenger. Let’s say Harrison completely bulldozes and finishes Pena though (please!), I can see her pushing hard to get Nunes out of retirement. And I wouldn’t be surprised if Nunes goes for it. Kayla’s gonna be fully aware that, even if she wins the title, she’d be ruling over one of the absolute shittest divisions ever with no interesting contenders or big name marketable fights on the horizon. She needs a Nunes on her resume to really solidly herself and be seen as the best. Not saying it’s likely but I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw Nunes step in there with Harrison. I think it’s more likely we see Harrison beat Pena and then defend against Norma Buttocks though.

MENS FLYWEIGHT: Alexandre Pantoja

I think he’s staying on top of the mountain for another year. Might seem a bit ambitious considering he’s about to turn 35 and he’s been in a bunch of wars and gruelling battles. But unless it suddenly all catches up to him and he ages almost overnight, I see him hanging onto the strap going into 2026. He’s just too fucking good. Looking at the current landscape of the Flyweight division, I think we could see Kai Kara-France get the next crack at it. He’s coming off that big KO win over Steve Erceg, he’s in the Top 5 and he’s one of the only fresh fights out there for Pantoja. We’ve also got Brandon Royval vs Manel Kape coming up in March. Feels like the winner of that would be right in line. But either way it’d be another rematch and either way I think Pantoja wins. Beyond that, there’s Figgy. He’s been making noises about dropping back to Flyweight to try to reclaim his belt. Obviously 135 is healthier for Figgy these days but I can’t pretend I wouldn’t be bang up for Pantoja vs Figgy 2. So yeah, that lot should keep Pantoja busy this year. Not sure which order it goes in but I see him staying champ. I think Figgy’s the biggest threat to the title of those options but even then, the degree to which he struggles with the weight cut seems to vary from fight to fight. And coming off a few fights at 135, I think he could find cutting back down to 125 even harder now.

Brandon Moreno feels kind of like the forgotten man now. He’s coming off a solid win over Amir Albazi but it seems like no matter what he does, while Pantoja’s holding the gold Moreno’s gonna be effectively shut out of the title race. Feels like he’s gonna have to do something spectacular to change that. Like the equivalent of Holloway’s KO over Gaethje or something. But Moreno’s really not much of a finisher. Purely from a fun matchups perspective, I’d love to see Moreno vs Erceg and/or Moreno vs Kai Asakura this year. If nothing else, they’re fresh fights for him and I think both would be fantastic to watch. What else? Interested to see how Tatsuro Taira bounces back and develops after his first loss against Royval. And I’m looking forward to seeing Joshua Van keep delivering fun fights.

WOMENS FLYWEIGHT: Zhang Weili

Yep, I think she might go up in weight this year. Bit left field, I’ll get into it more in the Strawweight bit but I think Zhang probably loses the Strawweight title to Tatiana Suarez in a few weeks at UFC 312. If that happens, she might push for a rematch but I could just as easily see her opting to move up to Flyweight to chase UFC gold in a second division. She’ll be 36 in August, I’m not sure how hard the cut to 115lbs is for her but I’m sure she’d welcome cutting less. And as far as legacy goes, a belt in a second weight class would certainly add to it and she doesn’t have a ton of time left in her career to accomplish that so why not this year? For what it’s worth MMAFighting’s Damon Martin was saying this a few months ago…

So it sounds like Zhang’s been at least contemplating giving Flyweight a bash. I reckon she loses to Suarez in February and moves up later in the year and beats Valentina Shevchenko in a bit of a Superfight. I’d be well up for that fight actually.

The monkey wrench in all this could be Manon Fiorot. And if Zhang doesn’t move up and beat Shevchenko, I think Fiorot beats her. Either way, I think Shev’s time on the Flyweight throne is coming to an end again. She beat Grasso handily in their last fight at the Sphere but I think that was more a case of Grasso’s wrestling not being up to snuff. I think Fiorot would fare better there and her physical strength could be a problem for Shevchenko. 

Elsewhere in the division, I’d love to see Alexa Grasso rebound and get back to winning ways but I’ve got a feeling they might throw her in with Erin Blanchfield and I think that’s a horrible matchup for Grasso given her deficiencies in the wrestling. I reckon we see Maycee Barber vs Rose Namajunas sometime this year, probably headlining the Apex. And I can see Rose losing and walking away from MMA. She’s seemed half checked out for a while to me now. And I’m interested to see how much further Natalia Silva can go. She’s been looking good on the way up, got a feeling she’ll come unstuck soon but I’d like to see her keep winning.

I guess the big wish for Flyweight though, would be that the UFC somehow come to an agreement to get Dakota Ditcheva from PFL. Not sure how that would work or if it would even be in the realms of possibility but I’d like to see it. Would shake things up a bit. Highly unlikely the UFC sits down with PFL to get it sorted though. Wish they could do a trade like when they swapped Demetrious Johnson for ONE’s Ben Askren but this time get rid of some shite instead of one of the best fighters ever. Maybe if they give PFL Colby Covington, Julianna Pena and the Apex in exchange for Ditcheva? Sounds good to me.

STRAWWEIGHT: Tatiana Suarez

Probably gonna be seen as a bit of a controversial take but I think there’s a decent chance of it. We’re gonna find out at UFC 312 in February but I honestly think Suarez has got a very good shot at beating Zhang Weili for the title. That’s assuming she makes it to the fight, of course. She’s been absolutely battered by injuries and health problems in her career so there’s always that hanging over her fight bookings. If she makes it though, I think her wrestling could give Zhang major issues. We saw Zhang had answers for that against Carla Esparza but we also saw her get taken down a lot by Rose Namajunas in their second fight. And Suarez is a way better wrestler than either Esparza or Namajunas. She was on track to compete at the Olympics in 2012 in London before the cancer diagnosis. I’m not massively confident but I am leaning towards her beating Zhang in a few weeks.

Whatever happens from there is anyone’s guess. If Zhang loses to Suarez, they could well just go straight into an immediate rematch. But as I’ve gone into on the Flyweight bit above, I can see a different path for Zhang. And if Zhang does move up to 125, it would blow the Strawweight title picture wide open. Without Zhang, I could see the belt becoming a bit of a hot potato. On paper you’d think Suarez would have the skillset to take over in a post-Zhang division but she’s 34 herself and, while I’m favouring her to dethrone Zhang next month, I’m not confident she’ll be able to stay healthy/active after that. My thinking is Suarez wins the title then gets injured again and an interim title is created. And when you look at the rankings - Xiaonan, Jandiroba, Andrade, Lemos, Dern. They’ve all pretty much fought each other already and you could see any of that lot beating any of the others on a given day. Hot potato. Anyway, yeah, I reckon Suarez will still technically hold the belt by this time next year but she’ll be inactive for most of it and will either have to unify with whoever the interim champ is in late 2025, or she’ll be forced to vacate. Hope I’m wrong.

 

2025. 

Edited January 4, 2025 by wandshogun09