WWE Double Scum Mafia *GAME OVER*

[Jaffa]

Wow, that's an incredible series of posts. Kudos.

 

I understand your thought process nearly all of the way, but the element I disagree with is your ruling out of Dan Williams, El Nicko and Carbomb being scum.

 

Each scum team knew that Mike wasn't one of them. They didn't know for sure he was town, but they knew he wasn't aligned with them. Knowing that, to them he was likely town and whether we like it or not, Castle lynches build momentum quickly as he makes himself an easy lynch target. It's entirely likely that scum stayed away from the Castle lynch because upon his likely town reveal, they could say 'I didn't vote for him'.

 

Right now, those three are just as likely to be scum as anyone else you've named.

[Chris_Stone]

Don't get me wrong, i'm not ruling them out, certainly not but i think the assumption that there was atleast 1 more anti-town role on that wagon is a fair one to make. With that in mind i was trying to narrow down as far as possible the likely suspects on the wagon only. I don't think all 5 anti-town roles were on that wagon, that would be far too convenient but to believe there was only 1 on it with the way in which it moved... i'm not sure i can believe that.

It's harder to narrow down the non mike voters or the complete non-voters due to lack of information. All of the confirms on role we have were on that Mike wagon, whether now dead or through a claim (such as bristep) which means that all of our solid fact information comes from that.

 

Activitity alone is no reason to push a lynch - we've established that from previous games, but it can be an indication, put that along with some possible numbers and theories and you can start narrowing things down which is what i've tried to do.

 

However, my posts do not give us a solid reason to lynch any of the names mentioned as possibles, to be certain or even close to certain (as it's quite possible at least one of the people i mentioned are town) further investigation of their posts is needed.

[Chris_Stone]

Also, if anything your point on scum knowing mike wasn't one of them and not that he wasn't scum completely may well raise the possibility of IC being on that lynch they'd have a bit more information, nothing concrete but a little more than regular scum. If anyone were to shy away it would likely be non ic scum as they'd have the least information. Once one teams IC scum places their vote there's a fairly good chance the other Scum IC would have. It would have became clear to the second Scum IC that Mike was not scum, or that the other scum IC member was happy to see mike bussed. Surely they'd also have been discussing it? 'He's not one of ours' that means 3 people probably knew mike was town. another 4 knew he wasn't in their own scum group.

[Dazz]

I know there hasn't been a direct accusation per-say towards me being Scum, but having read the series of posts that are before this one, I feel I should probably give you a little indication of where I am at.

 

I havn't got much of a read of the game as much as I'd like to have had, down to work, and down to getting to grips with the game mechanics, but, I think I'm slowly getting there, and thank you for your patience with me.

 

I would also like to reassure you at this time, that I am town through and through, and I'm dedicated to rooting out the scum in this game and getting a victory for the town.

 

Chris, The analysis which you have provided, while incredible, and admirable, could say one of a few things.

 

1) Could it be that this analysis is a veil for YOU being Scum? I know you havn't accused anyone directly of being scum really, but, could providing this full scale "read" of the game be an attempt to deflect any attention from you?

 

2) It could well be that you are a townie, and are indeed out for helping us all out, but, I feel, that that's far too much effort for a simple action of help. It could get you killed.

 

3) Are you IC? Perhaps you're using the inside info you have to get an insiders view of the game? and maybe you've let slip?

 

I dunno, but that's where I am just now.

[Dan Williams]

Hi guys, sorry about my lack of posting I am really finding it hard to chip in at the minute but I have been following, at the minute to answer the question chris if it was me I would be looking at brownie and possibly TDK as although he is posting he is just posting fluff and not really hunting anyone. He is a waste of space as it is. As for where my vote will go today I am going to go over what we have and will probably vote tomorrow along with all my reasoning.

[Chris_Stone]

I know there hasn't been a direct accusation per-say towards me being Scum, but having read the series of posts that are before this one, I feel I should probably give you a little indication of where I am at.

 

I havn't got much of a read of the game as much as I'd like to have had, down to work, and down to getting to grips with the game mechanics, but, I think I'm slowly getting there, and thank you for your patience with me.

 

I would also like to reassure you at this time, that I am town through and through, and I'm dedicated to rooting out the scum in this game and getting a victory for the town.

 

Chris, The analysis which you have provided, while incredible, and admirable, could say one of a few things.

 

1) Could it be that this analysis is a veil for YOU being Scum? I know you havn't accused anyone directly of being scum really, but, could providing this full scale "read" of the game be an attempt to deflect any attention from you?

 

2) It could well be that you are a townie, and are indeed out for helping us all out, but, I feel, that that's far too much effort for a simple action of help. It could get you killed.

 

3) Are you IC? Perhaps you're using the inside info you have to get an insiders view of the game? and maybe you've let slip?

 

I dunno, but that's where I am just now.

 

As i've said, non of what i've posted is a reason for anybody to be killed, alone it is fairly meaningless and it is based on assumptions which no matter how likely i believe them to be cannot be confirmed.

 

1) Yes, it could. As Brownie has already mentioned there is scope for people not voting on Mike to be scum, myself included and since i haven't analyzed that you could say it's to give myself room. You've every reason to be suspicious of that but the reason i'm focusing on the lynch votes is quite simple: We've got more information to move with, the assumption that one more scum / anti-town role is on that wagon is high and i'm analyzing the fact. I've tried to leave out too much of my personal thoughts on the game and I'm trying to run with fact and common assumptions that most if not all can agree with. If you'd like to try and gain information from those not on the wagon, go ahead - I'll certainly answer any question you have regarding my non vote and it would be helpful (there is i'd guess around a 100% chance that scum also resides in the group of people either not voting or voting for someone other than mike) So in direct answer: You should be wary of my motives, as with anybodies motives to push suspicion anywhere but i've not bent any facts and the only opinions i put in to the posts i made was that i don't believe Snake or TDK to be as likely scum, snake is backed up with evidence, TDK is a feeling i have at this point. If you want to include them in possibles, that's perfectly fine, it gives us more names to work with there, perhaps you even feel one of the people who's names ive mentioned other than your own shouldn't be suspects either - give your thoughts and reasons, i'd happily take them into account in my own mind too.

 

2) Drawing attention to myself is not necessarily a bad thing - I'm not hinting at a role here but say i was the doctor, i could live through the night knowing that i'd be fine. Similarly If i'm vanilla my death may serve more purpose than me living if it gave plenty of information. Again, i'm not claiming either of these things, i'm not hinting at them, i'm just trying to answer your question.

 

3) I'm not IC, no. The information i've used is readily available to anyone, it's boils down to this basically:

 

-Who voted for Mike

-Minusing the 4 confirmed from that, leaving 5 people.

-Who from that i feel unlikely to be Scum (snake + TDK)

-3 names which i feel are most likely to be scum from those who voted mike

-A person who i feel might be town through their post.

-Leaving 2 names.

 

Does it seem like a lot of work? Aye, maybe but i'm quite bored and numbers give us more than a lot of the posts we have to work with right now. People have played evasively, the 2 people left at the end (and even brownie if you add him in) haven't had massive ammounts of interaction, a vote on them solely on interaction would be ill advised but this gives some meaning.

 

I've tried before to read the wagon, i came up wrong on Bristep, i've taken it back to its simplest form and tried to avoid too much speculation and work on numbers and odds.

 

Read into the posts what you will, i've laid a good basis for scum hunting to commence, this certainly doesn't give us everything we need, which i've happily said a few times

[unfitfinlay]

Chris - The evidence only makes it unlikely that Snake is Smackdown scum. Given that I was the one who picked up on Lion in the last phase it's also unlikely that I'm RAW scum. So why am I suspect and he's not?

 

Secondly, the majority of brownie's posts throughout the game have been defending Snake. Surely that's a reason to suspect they may be aligned rather than not?

 

If I've already given my reasons for my vote on Mike but if anyone has any questions, post them and I'll answer them tomorrow.

 

Also Brownie, since your active, could you respond to the points I made about your vote Mike?

[Teedy Kay]

TDK as although he is posting he is just posting fluff and not really hunting anyone. He is a waste of space as it is.

 

I've posted a solid case on Seph, of course it's easier to say I'm posting 'fluff' because I'm not being too serious about it all.

 

And to reconfirm with you all, I am confirmed Town, although not. It's hard to get your heads round I know, but you should do, for the sake of my unborn baby Olivia (3 months to go BTW!)

 

I can't believe anyone would vote against a little unborn baby girl

[Chris_Stone]

You're right about Snake, it only makes him unlikely he is smackdown scum he could be raw scum, he could be town ic - absolutely. But there is some evidence there to back up that he's not quite as likely to be scum. There are assumptions in my posts, some of them may not be 100% correct thus no accusations have come from me just yet. In all fairness i hadn't noticed your picking up on Lion, and that's why i've tried at least somewhat not to remove many names based on anything but fact. my removal of Snake, TDK and the (partial) removal of Brownie was to do with my feeling on the game.

 

Some of it comes down to interpretation and trust, I feel Brownie is more likely to be scum than Snake, his removal wasn't a complete removal, it was his information on snake (and my trust for snake) that helped me to think that way.

 

However, Brownies response to my main posts doesn't quite sit right.

 

He points out that there will be scum outside of the wagon (this is 100% true) but suggesting that scum may have all kept away seems a bit too far to go with it.

 

I must also point out finlay that whilst you're right, it lowers the chance you are in the RAW team it doesnt so much as nexus's flip meant snake is unlikely to be smackdown - One reason here: There wasn't really a situation where Lion was going to be lynched - that said, You seem trustable to a degree.

[Chris_Stone]

EBWOP

 

Another consideration for the removal of Snake and TDK from the list was visibility, i obviously cross referenced the people who voted with the post count as a way of bringing down the number of suspects.

[Jaffa]

Also Brownie, since your active, could you respond to the points I made about your vote Mike?

I've reread your posts and can't see any points that have asked for a response. What do you want me to respond to?

 

He points out that there will be scum outside of the wagon (this is 100% true) but suggesting that scum may have all kept away seems a bit too far to go with it.

I never said that all scum would have stayed clear of the Castle lynch.

[Chris_Stone]

I think I misread slightly what you had wrote, i read it as a blanket statement rather than 'scum in general may not have been heavily involved when they saw it rolling' which is what i think you meant looking back. Still though, you're not exactly 100% clear in my eyes.

 

So tell me, out of the 3 you mentioned, which one do you think would most likely be scum? Just as it's likely there is scum on the wagon somewhere, and whilst my attempt to narrow down the names of the people it could be i believe is still helpfull, we're still left with a handful of names with nothing other than the numbers to back up.

 

So who that wasn't on the wagon should we be looking at?

[Dan Williams]

I think that at least one of the 3 people highlighted by chris in his post count list is going to be scum as they show all the classic signs ( Trying to hide on a wagon, lurking in the shadows most of the time trying there best not to get noticed) At the moment I am still not sure which one to go for. Also Teddy why are you just coasting in this one ( i know you say you have put together a cas eon seph but you haven't really pushed it) and why should we not consider you for the lynch? Also why claim that you are confirmed town when at the moment the only confirmed is bristep (and im not totally sure of that either)

[Jaffa]

Chris, as I said, the 2 that stand out for me right now are Carbomb and Kenny. One falls into the 'on Castle wagon' catagory and the other falls into the 'not on Castle wagon' catagory.

 

I'm also starting to suspect unfitfinlay. As a general rule, I don't immediately FOS or lambast anyone who votes or suspects me, otherwise the game would be redundant, but the manor in which he's tunnelled on me this phase is concerning.

 

We start with:

 

Anyway, I think the flips tell us a lot. I knew Lion was scum and it's nice to have it confirmed. Looking back through the thread, I am a bit suspicious of brownie's interaction with Lion. Twice Lion ignored my attempts to question him and, reading it back, it looks like brownie asked him some fairly easy to answer questions (not that mine were exactly hard but would've at least given more of a read on him) so that when his non interaction came up again, he could say "I answered brownie's questions". In retrospect it seems very rehearsed.

It's early in the phase but brownie seems to have avoided any real attention so far

so....

 

VOTE BROWNIE

 

Points raised out of this are

1) How did you know Lion was scum? You couldn't possibley have known unless you were scum together. You're saying this to try and blanket yourself as town and it looks silly. So, your lying.

2) Lion didn't answer your questions, so why didn't you push him? You're overlooking the fact that I pushed a scum member into sticking his neck out and name a suspect. Why would you omit that? Probably because you're trying to push me as scum, which is untrue.

3) do you realise that you've posted even less than me? And that by your words quoted, that makes you a suspect?

 

Then there is

 

Thing is though Brownie, you've been pretty beige and non-committal yourself. Looking through your posts, I haven't seen you really suspect anyone and even your reason for Voting for Mike was because you didn't think Snake was scum. All in all, you seem to have posted more about who you think isn't scum than who is?

 

You've been subtler than Lion but I still think you're trying to blend into the background so my vote stands.

 

Points from here are:

1)Had I not voted Mike, what would've happened? No lynch. (look at the time of hammer, no lynch was a real possibility, especially since nobody said they'd move their vote). Wwhat would have happened then? Scum chancers would have blamed me for a no lynch. You could level that argument at nearly everyone. Especially those who copied their reasons for voting Castle from people like Bristep. Also noted that you were 'looking through my posts'.

 

Then we have:

 

That said, you might have a point about Snake being protected. I've been doing another read through of all Brownie's posts and the majority of them do seem to be defending Snake. Brownie is still my choice for lynch this phase (and isn't it interesting that he's disappeared since I last questioned him?) so the fact that he's been so insistent that Snake is town could be telling us something, especially in this game where the scum really can't afford to lose anybody.

 

Points to be raised:

1)You looked again at my posts, nobody elses?

2)The 'majority' of my posts defend Snake. Looking back, only the ones where he is the discussion point or i'm directly asked are about him. Another little lie.

3)I 'disappear'. Good attempt to paint me as scum, but remember that I answered your point and you didn't come back with anything further and that you yourself went VLA.

4)I've been 'insistant' about Snake. Reread other games on UKFF. Previous case studies also include Lion, SMS, Teedy Kay and Dan Williams. Snake is playing with all the hallmarks of frustrated town. That's fact.

 

We finish with:

 

Chris - The evidence only makes it unlikely that Snake is Smackdown scum. Given that I was the one who picked up on Lion in the last phase it's also unlikely that I'm RAW scum. So why am I suspect and he's not?

 

Secondly, the majority of brownie's posts throughout the game have been defending Snake. Surely that's a reason to suspect they may be aligned rather than not?

 

If I've already given my reasons for my vote on Mike but if anyone has any questions, post them and I'll answer them tomorrow.

 

Also Brownie, since your active, could you respond to the points I made about your vote Mike?

 

Points are:

1)If picking up on Lion is your reason to not be a suspect, why are you voting for me?

2)You'll answer them tomorrow? That could be construed as disappearing from questions.

3) Looking at my posts again?

 

Overall, Finners is displaying a few scum signs: hypocrisy, lying and tunnelling. I'm thinking we may have another scum here.

[Kenny McBride]

Sorry I've not been around for all the latest action. Had a hectic day and this phone sucks balls.

 

I agree that Snake looks safer now. Bristep's claim is plausible. Therefore

 

Unvote and Un-FOS.

 

Chris' analysis is interesting but gives us no strong leads. We almost need to start afresh. The lurkers are a worry now because without strong reads on everyone, we'ree now in a tricky spot. Everyone needs to post more. For now, just to get things roling,

 

VOTE Carbomb

 

Too quiet, evasive, and not even trying tofollow the game. Happy to unvote as soon as e starts playing.