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UFC 269: Oliveira vs Poirier - Dec 11 🇺🇸


wandshogun09

Who wins and how?   

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On 12/12/2021 at 8:40 PM, wandshogun09 said:

 

It doesn’t seem right to make excuses but something wasn’t right with Nunes and nobody will convince me otherwise. 

I dont think anything was wrong with her, it just felt like Amanda found herself in a position she hasn't been in years, and she didn't know how to get out of it.

Amanda is most definitely a front runner, but she's the best front runner is women's MMA history. Few would have survived that first round but it looked like Nunes gas tank was dry and her heart had been broken some point during that second round, she was looking for a way out, could put it down to complacency? All credit to Pena who came in and dragged Nunes into a war, there's not many women out there who would even attempt to do that, many of Nunes opponents are beaten before they get in there.

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I still don't think Pena survives a rematch, or even a rubber match. Nunes wasn't some undefeated prodigy who didn't know what it was like to lose, and whose reaction to loss we won't know until the next match. 

If she's not on the slide (and I don't think she is), then she comes back and obliterates Pena quite violently, I reckon.

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Yeah I don’t necessarily mean Nunes was injured or anything but I think there’s a chance she was overconfident going in. Watching the press conference she was very dismissive as if she already had it in the bag. It was also weird just how rapidly she faded though. She’s gone 5 rounds a bunch of times and it’s not like this first round against Pena was especially fast paced. It wasn’t like it was a Shane Carwin vs Brock Lesnar first round where you could see why she faded. Yet she looked slower and sloppier than ever when they started trading in the second, and you’d have thought that’s the kind of fight Nunes would’ve wanted. It was weird. Maybe she was so wound up at Pena’s talk going in that it was a massive adrenaline dump or something but there’s no logical explanation for why Julianna Pena was able to stand and trade with the woman who knocked out fucking Cyborg and then sub her without even getting the hooks in. 

Nunes definitely has the front runner thing though. Like Alistair Overeem, Conor McGregor and others. I remember I used to compare her to Vitor Belfort years ago. No fight showed it more than the Zingano fight years ago. But it’s been so long since we’ve seen that, you almost forget. Still, it’s not like she’s had it all her own way throughout her reign. The Shevchenko fights were close and she didn’t fall to bits mentally. Cyborg was cracking her and she didn’t fold. Fuck, even De Randamie had her moments in their second fight and Nunes still dominated. It’s mad how fucking Pena was the one to end it all.

Sounds barmy given what she’s just accomplished but I still think Pena is bang average as a fighter. She deserves all the credit in the world for hanging in there and making it happen on Saturday night but I still think Nunes is the way superior actual fighter. It’s a weird situation where I think Pena being so delusional and confident actually worked for her on this night and she was simply able to outlast and out-tough her. Wasn’t luck or a fluke and she obviously deserves the plaudits but it’s not a result I see her repeating. 

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Nunes has gone 5 rounds a few times but has she ever gone 5 when someones actively attacking her, and getting in her face? from what i can recall her fights would settle into a rhythm where she would comfortably outpoint an overmatched opponent who'd run out of ideas.

Brian Campbell alluded to Pena attacking Nunes arm constantly in round 1 as a reason for Amanda gassing, Amanda was in dominant position but had to constantly battle to keep her arm safe, might be something to that?

Off the point but the commentary for the fight was great. I know DC/Rogan aint everyones cup of tea, but they were reacting on commentary as id imagine many fans were at home, great stuff. Anik/Rogan/DC is the premiere team for me.

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I don't want to be that guy making excuses, but another thing to bear in mind is that Nunes has had Covid, which was why their fight got postponed in the first place, and which has a tendency to affect people's energy and stamina in the long term. I know at least three people who've had it, and even the guy who had it eight months ago is still experiencing issues when he walks long distances. 

It could very well be that she underestimated how bad long Covid would be, and overestimated how quickly she'd recover from it.

That said, that's very much a "what if?" rather than "this was definitely true", and it doesn't change Pena's own approach in the fight. There is equally the possibility that, despite having a not very impressive record, Pena is that fighter who has Nunes' number.

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5 minutes ago, Egg Shen said:

Brian Campbell alluded to Pena attacking Nunes arm constantly in round 1 as a reason for Amanda gassing, Amanda was in dominant position but had to constantly battle to keep her arm safe, might be something to that?

I thought about that and maybe, but to fall apart that spectacularly? I’ve never seen anyone fall to bits like that from defending the arm for a bit. Pena was working for a sub but it wasn’t like she was close to actually completing a submission. No doubt it takes some energy but you shouldn’t be falling off a cliff as early as the second round just from defending the arm for a spell.

10 minutes ago, Egg Shen said:

Anik/Rogan/DC is the premiere team for me.

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yeah, it doesn't really explain her completely falling to pieces but its something? I think the main thing was her simply getting caught up in a brawl in round 2 and coming out on the worst end of it, when has that ever happened to Nunes?

oh, and there's this:

 

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10 minutes ago, Egg Shen said:

I think the main thing was her simply getting caught up in a brawl in round 2 and coming out on the worst end of it, when has that ever happened to Nunes?

That’s what was so shocking about it though. Getting caught up in a brawl with Pena, if you’re Amanda Nunes, shouldn’t end badly. Pena’s never been much of a striker. It would’ve been more understandable if a Holly Holm or Germaine De Randamie had got the better of her because at least they’re skilled strikers. You could see how that could happen. Pena didn’t even have the punchers chance and somehow made it happen. The more time it’s had to sink in, the more bonkers it seems.

There’s been a fair bit of revisionism since Saturday night with people acting like they saw it coming and that Pena’s some unstoppable beast now but there really was no legit reason to pick her. Anyone picking Pena was doing it against all logic and all the evidence we’d seen from both over their careers. There was no reason to think Pena could survive on the feet and no reason to think she’d be able to submit Nunes when she’d previously been subbed by Shevchenko and De Randamie. Then add in that Nunes has multiple wins over the women who’d beat Pena. I know MMA maths etc etc but all of it combined just painted a pretty grim picture for Pena’s chances here. The only reason you still predict that win, against all logic, is just to say you called it if it somehow happens. Usually in those cases the upset doesn’t happen and those predictions get quietly deleted. This time it somehow happened.

Sums it up. 

In the end, the only person I think 100% believed Julianna Pena was winning this fight is Julianna Pena herself. And I guess that’s all that mattered in the end.

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Rogan being a cock again.

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Not saying Nunes is above criticism but for her to go all that time as a dominant champ, going 5 rounds in a few of her defences, then just fade so early against Pena like she did, it’s bollocks really seeing how many people have turned on her this last week. She’s not looked that bad in a long time, maybe ever, and Rogan’s just insinuating it’s laziness. Like Carbomb said before, this was Nunes’ first fight back since having COVID. Not using that as an excuse, maybe it had no bearing on the fight at all, but I wouldn’t dismiss it either. Then again, Rogan’s one of them twats who thinks COVID’s no big deal because when he got it he snorted ground up elephant tusk and drank antelope jizz or whatever weird concoction him and Dana did, and he got better in a few days. Completely discounting the fact that it effects everyone differently and Rogan sits on his arse for a living and doesn’t have to go through a training camp and get in there and fight. Funniest thing about the Nunes critics I’ve seen is all the ones with Conor McGregor avatars acting like Nunes was shite all along and “always gasses”. I wish she had the stamina of Cardio Conor. She’s had one bad night in how many years? Now she’s crap? Nah. 

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I don't really subscribe to the whole "if you don't do it then you can't say anything" but its always irked me that Rogan is a colour commentator when having zero MMA experience. I get the history of his involvement and why he was useful at that time and yeah he has experience with BJJ and taekwondo but generally feel like he should really just shut up when talking about what fighters should be doing, he's never trained at that level, never fought, but yet has this huge platform. 

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