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UFC 262: Oliveira vs Chandler - May 15 🇺🇸


wandshogun09

Who wins and how?   

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I’ve said it before but his trash talk is Tito Ortiz level but people seem to love it when Tony does it for some reason. The ‘Dana White privilege’ line directed at Chandler was pretty good though, I’ll give him that. I spent most of it as bemused and baffled as Dariush seemed to be. Don’t know what he was banging on about most of the time.

This little interaction before the presser between Ferguson and Oliveira was nice to see though.

I hope Oliveira wins tomorrow night. Nothing even against Chandler. I’m not a big fan of him, although I’ve kind of softened a bit lately. But I’m much more of an Oliveira fan. I’ve seen people giving it the ‘it’d be a great story if Chandler won’ but I think it’d be a much cooler story if Oliveira won after all these years struggling away on the undercards. Plus, it feels like Oliveira’s been kind of treated like an afterthought in all this. It’s nowhere near as bad and obvious as the Nunes vs Rousey situation but watching Embedded and listening to Dana and everyone talk at the press conference, it does feel a bit like the ‘Michael Chandler show’. I think they’re hoping he comes out with the belt tomorrow and I do get it. He speaks well and will be able to go back and forth with a Poirier or McGregor or whoever the winner of this fights next. But balls to it. I’m fully on Team Do Bronx for this. 

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Yeh spotlight seems to be on Chandler. As a long time time fan i would love to see him pull it off, i just keep thinking back to a time not too long ago when they started to think Chandler was on the slide and it makes me think Oliveira is gonna win this.

I just listened to the MMA Roadshow though and they made out that if Chandler keeps this standing, Charles has no chance, i dont necessarily agree with that stance though Chandler no doubt has the power advantage. Oliveira's standup can be pretty nasty.

It's still nuts that the UFC's Lightweight title is being contested between these two.

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Yeah you’d never have predicted it. I love the fight though. In an ideal world Poirier sparks McGregor again in July and fights the winner of this.

And I’d actually say Oliveira has the better striking of the two in this fight. Chandler’s mostly a boxer but Oliveira has more about him in the standup for me. More tools. But like you say, Chandler’s power probably makes up for some of that and kind of levels the playing field. 

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Either someone’s hacked Katlyn Chookagian’s Twitter or she’s horny as fuck cutting weight this week for some reason. Her ‘likes’ right now are just wall to wall porn. Sadly, this is probably the most interesting thing she’s ever been involved with in her career.

Then to top it off, in amongst all the filth, this just floored me.

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1 hour ago, wandshogun09 said:

 

And I’d actually say Oliveira has the better striking of the two in this fight. Chandler’s mostly a boxer but Oliveira has more about him in the standup for me. More tools. But like you say, Chandler’s power probably makes up for some of that and kind of levels the playing field. 

big height difference too, i see a big knee coming up the middle and destroying Chandler's beautiful face.

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Dariush and Ferguson should be a hell of a fight. I'm having a hard time calling that one, but I see it being a bit of a brawl, no matter who comes out on top. Both don't seem to mind taking two shots to land two of their own, and it's Dariush biggest test to date. I'm sure Ferguson has slipped a bit or he wouldn't have been beaten as decisively as he was by Oliveira and Gaethje. However I don't think he's slipped so much that Dariush can beat him just as convincingly. 

Is Chandler favourite? I wouldn't make him favourite, personally. Distinct power advantage sure. If he doesn't land it early though I can see Oliveira's stand up game just picking him apart as the rounds tick on. Plus, he's going to be, or at least he should be, reluctant to take this fight onto the ground. I can understand mixing in the takedowns to keep Oliveira guessing and to help set up the power overhand right, but if this fight spends any length of time on the mat at all, I've got to feel Chandler is going to sleep. 

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It’s a tricky one because I can’t remember seeing much of Chandler’s BJJ defence. He’s never faced someone who’s as much of a threat off their back as Oliveira is anyway. To be honest, Oliveira’s probably the best submission specialist in the division. If there is a hole in Chandler’s submission defence, Oliveira will find it. But I can’t see Chandler wrestling that much. I think he’ll fancy this on the feet, especially after the way the Hooker fight went. And he’s mentioned a couple of times that Oliveira has kind of folded when past opponents have hurt him so I think he’s looking to jump on him and do damage early. He also sounded quite wary of Oliveira’s chokes in that Din Thomas video I posted in here the other day. Din asked him what concerned him most about Oliveira’s game and he didn’t hesitate to say it was the possibility of getting caught in a sub. I think he’ll try to force the standup and avoid that risk. Because even just shooting on Oliveira to score points is a dicey game to play and could easily leave him open to the guillotine. There’s a chance Oliveira out strikes him on the feet too but it’s still preferable to getting tangled up on the ground with him.

The plus for Oliveira here is he’s gonna be absolutely fearless when it comes to Chandler’s wrestling. He’ll welcome it if anything. So that’ll free him up to really let loose with his strikes on the feet too because he won’t be worrying about being taken down. We’ve used the Fabricio Werdum vs Cain Velasquez example before but I think it fits this fight better than most. Wrestlers in MMA use the threat of the takedown to make opponents freeze up as a big part of their striking game. If Oliveira doesn’t see the takedown as a ‘threat’ and sees it more as an opportunity to get his grappling going then that’s a big part of the battle won.

It really is a fascinating fight. And for all I’ve said in favour of Oliveira there, I’ve still got doubts about it because of those times when he’s been hurt in the past and ended up buckling under the attack. For as great a streak as he’s on, that doesn’t just go away. I love Oliveira and he’s a hell of a fighter and great to watch, but I’m not convinced he’s got that toughness in him if it gets really ugly in there. We know Chandler does from the wars with Eddie Alvarez. Great, great fight. I’m probably 60/40 in favour of Oliveira but I’m really looking forward to seeing how it actually plays out. 

Edited by wandshogun09
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26 minutes ago, wandshogun09 said:

It’s a tricky one because I can’t remember seeing much of Chandler’s BJJ defence. He’s never faced someone who’s as much of a threat off their back as Oliveira is anyway.

He defends well while in full mount. For example, Goiti Yamauchi couldn't get much going against him off his back.

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I'm incredibly hyped for this one. I think I am in the minority here but I am fully Team Chandler, everything about the guy just oozes charisma and I find him incredibly likeable. 

It's going to be incredibly close, I can't see it going 5 rounds though, I think we either get a Chandler Knockout or a Charlie Olives submission after flooring chandler with a knee. I am also excited for the return of fans again, the last PPV was such a refreshing difference that I can't wait to see them all again.

I've always disliked Tony as a person so I am hoping he loses on Saturday, I think he is on a slide and Saturday will prove it.

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