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While I want to agree with you, I can’t help but feel like once things get relaxed (whenever that may be), the wider population will just go back to how we were before things escalated. We’ve seen plenty of people who either just don’t get the seriousness of it all or just blatantly flout what they’re being told to do

I think we're at least 3 months away from relaxing it. I actually think there will be harsher measures before relaxing even happens. It will become a lot more normal, so the stockpilers and panic shoppers will not be as prevalent as it will settle down into the everyday run of things. People were shitting it as they didn't know what was going to happen. We know now.

Also in the next 3 weeks we are going to see huge numbers. The Government will no doubt step up the messaging all over the place

My work has e-mailed to tell me that holiday and sick days do not have to be reported now. Just simply inform your manager if you will not be at your desk WFH.

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1 hour ago, John Matrix said:

Wuhan Leap.jpg

An eerily timed post. Last night I watched this show for the first time in 30 years and was wondering whether there'd be enough material for a reboot series...

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51 minutes ago, thevestofdeanambrose said:

Anyone else realised just how many mailing lists they are actually on from all these Covid emails. 

Yeah.  I mean, during this time of national crisis, do I really need an update about how my Porsche dealership is coping?

@Keith Houchen

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I've been looking at UK versus Italy as we have similar population sizes, and WHO think UK is around 14 days behind Italy. There are differences in terms of how Italy is lots of separate regions connected by large cities, and like the US they have an element of devolved legislature. This means regions shut down gradually rather than in a blanket way as they (finally) did here. I've not shared this elsewhere but here's cases and deaths in the two countries, with the UK staggered forward two weeks (so 1st March in Italy is 15th March in the UK).

I've put it in spoiler tags because not everyone wants to face the numbers.

It shows the Italian death rate is continuing to rise while the UK day on day isn't yet having the steep climb. Cases are rising at similar rates but mortality isn't. Schools were closed over a number of days in Italy rather than one deadline in the UK, additionally just being further along in the crisis likely means we are able to diagnose and give mitigating advice.

image.png.8004f4293c74e08e0ca4fbb53aac31c4.png

Source: wikipedia

Edited by Onyx2

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Great stat work @Onyx2, and obviously who doesn't appreciate a good graph. I didn't realize they left it so late to close schools there. I spoke to a work colleague in Milan yesterday. He was called a bastard by a local because he went out for a run at the weekend in his local forest, so he's not been out since. Seems like people are taking it more seriously, even though I don't think him going for a run was an issue.

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8 minutes ago, Hannibal Scorch said:

Great stat work @Onyx2, and obviously who doesn't appreciate a good graph. I didn't realize they left it so late to close schools there. I spoke to a work colleague in Milan yesterday. He was called a bastard by a local because he went out for a run at the weekend in his local forest, so he's not been out since. Seems like people are taking it more seriously, even though I don't think him going for a run was an issue.

If he's anything like how my brother in Naples speaks to everyone, he could've just been saying hello.

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23 minutes ago, Onyx2 said:

I've not shared this elsewhere but here's cases and deaths in the two countries, with the UK staggered forward two weeks (so 1st March in Italy is 15th March in the UK).

However, we've now started recording deaths differently (a shift in hours and procedures) so today's deaths might not necessarily be today's deaths any more.

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There's hope! The dick head who asked me for a lighter the other day ran out of his house and told his kid to get in because "he's playing out too much". He then coughed, uncovered, in to the open air but it's still progress.

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1 hour ago, johnnyboy said:

However, we've now started recording deaths differently (a shift in hours and procedures) so today's deaths might not necessarily be today's deaths any more.

Yeah there's a lot of wobbly stuff in it but it's what we have. Really hard to normalise. More to show trends that we aren't accelerating at the same rate as Italy. 

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1 hour ago, Onyx2 said:

I've been looking at UK versus Italy as we have similar population sizes, and WHO think UK is around 14 days behind Italy. There are differences in terms of how Italy is lots of separate regions connected by large cities, and like the US they have an element of devolved legislature. This means regions shut down gradually rather than in a blanket way as they (finally) did here. I've not shared this elsewhere but here's cases and deaths in the two countries, with the UK staggered forward two weeks (so 1st March in Italy is 15th March in the UK).

I've put it in spoiler tags because not everyone wants to face the numbers.

 

  Hide contents

It shows the Italian death rate is continuing to rise while the UK day on day isn't yet having the steep climb. Cases are rising at similar rates but mortality isn't. Schools were closed over a number of days in Italy rather than one deadline in the UK, additionally just being further along in the crisis likely means we are able to diagnose and give mitigating advice.

image.png.8004f4293c74e08e0ca4fbb53aac31c4.png

Source: wikipedia

 

Really interesting stuff. Doesn't the population of Italy skew quite old, hence explaining some of the high death rate?

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From what I have read (so take it with a pinch of salt) lot of older people apparently live with family members as well which possibly sped up the spread of the virus.

Hasn't a hospital been linked to it? Read something about an infected patient making multiple undetected trips to a hospital.

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3 hours ago, WyattSheepMask said:

While I want to agree with you, I can’t help but feel like once things get relaxed (whenever that may be), the wider population will just go back to how we were before things escalated. We’ve seen plenty of people who either just don’t get the seriousness of it all or just blatantly flout what they’re being told to do

Something i've not really seen discussed a whole lot currently, but i'm fascinated that may change (and surely has to) our lives in the future is the positive affects this could have on climate change. A month or so back, when i was still working and this was all really starting to kick off - just to make some interesting conversation on the subject as Covid was all anyone was talking about and to play a bit of devils advocate i was being all tinfoil hat theory and would say something along the lines of "It's interesting how everything this seems to affect are things that are issues contributing to climate change - overpopulation, fuel emissions, big events with huge mass gatherings, etc".

Now, i don't actually think this is a man-made virus or government conspiracy to solve climate change or anything like that before anyone jumps on me. As i said, was merely creating some interesting debate/conversation. My main point being that, the big measures that the world knows it's needed to address and change to combat climate change, not nearly enough people would. People just wouldn't be willing to change their way of lives, even with the fear and knowledge of the long term affects, presumably because it just doesn't affect us enough immediately for us to take real action. Earlier in the year it was being said that we were basically to the point of no return on the matter, if DRASTIC action wasn't taken, we are basically fucked. Even with that knowledge, it wouldn't truly change how we live. A very sudden, immediate, very real fear that does affect us RIGHT NOW has caused us to drastically change our way of life immediately. If this does all continue for a number of months and the evidence continues to suggest the actions taken are having a positive impact on climate change, i'm interested to see if once COVID-19 issues have settled, whether we do just go completely back to normal and our usual way of life, or the climate change evidence is too strong to be ignored any more that periods like this could be enforced every so often in future or whether they even could. Whether the fear of the impact on global economy is too great for that to be a reality, but if we manage to live like this for an extended period now and get through it and the evidence suggests it's what we need to do to stop the rapid rate of climate change, could we live like this for short periods every so often in the future? 

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38 minutes ago, tiger_rick said:

Really interesting stuff. Doesn't the population of Italy skew quite old, hence explaining some of the high death rate?

I didn't realise that, but yes:

age-distribution-in-the-united-kingdom.j

age-distribution-in-italy.jpg

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This virus is not man made, indeed it’s the opposite.  It’s natural outcome of a population exceeding the resources of its habitat.

 Normally in nature populations are self regulating, through disease and other factors.  We’ve artificially suppressed that with our technology but you could argue that was unlikely to last forever.

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