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UFC 246: McGregor vs Cerrone - Jan 18 🇺🇸

Who wins and how?   

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Echoing the thoughts of most of you guys in here, to be honest. Can't remember the last time I've been this cold on a McGregor fight. Think that's a feeling translating to the more casual fans as well. I've barely seen anyone outside of "the circle" excited about this. Small sample size I know, but the last few McGregor fights (Alvarez, Mayweather, Khabib) me and my mates have all done something for it. Nobody has even brought it up this time around. And I'm about 80% sure they haven't all fallen out with me without informing me.

I hope Cerrone wins, and I think he does at the moment. Conor at 170lbs isn't a recipe for success in my eyes, and I see Cowboy has possessing a lot of the Diaz traits that was giving Conor fits in their two fights.

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Agree with that. But I’m thinking McGregor wins. Unfortunately. While Cerrone does have some of the same strengths as Diaz, I don’t think he’s got that crazy toughness to get through the early blitz from McGregor like Nate did. 

Hope I’m wrong though. Conor’s lay-off could be a factor. Sometimes time away can be good. For example, I think it did GSP the world of good. But Conor spent the last year being a massive fuck up. Then, as you say, I don’t think 170 is a good fit for him. He loses something in his speed and stamina when he’s carrying that extra weight and if Cowboy gets out of the first round I think his chances go up big time. Just got a bad feeling Conor catches him early. Then we’ll keep hearing how he’s ‘back’ and how Khabib is shitting himself and all that. You know the drill. 

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I think McGregor catches him early on. Cerrone has always been vulnerable early on in fights and is not the hardest to hit. 

Although, if Cerrone survives the first two rounds, he has a decent chance. I can't see a tiring McGregor taking Cerrone's knees and body kicks well in the later rounds. 

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I know it's not the done thing to say about Cerrone, but I think he's not as mentally strong as he maybe once was. I believe that may be the deciding factor in this fight, as McGregor, for all his faults, has unwavering faith in his own ability. I've seen Cerrone get it tough in the first round or so and look like he's not as confident. 

I also said it at the time, but I think he blew his nose against Ferguson because he'd had enough. That's a rookie mistake that someone with almost 50 fights doesn't make. The fact that he was smiling afterwards tells its own story.

It could be that his priorities have changed now, who knows? But I think McG is coming in with a point to prove.

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This talk does have an air of Rousey Revisionism about it.  McG is (or was) a phenomenal fighter with unorthodox striking.  Yeah he has his faults in the octagon, but I can't help but think a lot of people are seeing McG the person and not the fighter.  His stock as a person is in the gutter but even after a lay off he still counts as an elite level fighter, doesn't he?

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7 minutes ago, Keith Houchen said:

This talk does have an air of Rousey Revisionism about it.  McG is (or was) a phenomenal fighter with unorthodox striking.  Yeah he has his faults in the octagon, but I can't help but think a lot of people are seeing McG the person and not the fighter.  His stock as a person is in the gutter but even after a lay off he still counts as an elite level fighter, doesn't he?

I'm not sure he's elite, but he's easily top five in the lightweight division, and unless he's facing a world class grappler with a chin he's always got a chance. I don't think Cerrone is top level, so McG certainly fares a better than average chance of success.

The wild card is the weight. But even then, those saying he'll gas out and so on seem to be forgetting that he went five rounds with Diaz at welter. He gassed up in the first fight but appeared to have dealt with that issue.

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12 hours ago, David said:

But even then, those saying he'll gas out and so on seem to be forgetting that he went five rounds with Diaz at welter. He gassed up in the first fight but appeared to have dealt with that issue.

He managed his gas tank better in the second fight. 

However, there were still periods in that fight where he slowed down. In the middle rounds, after McGregor had slowed down a bit, Diaz was able to land some very effective body shots on McGregor that visibly hurt him. McGregor even walked away from Diaz at one point to avoid in-fighting and possibly suffering more body shots. If Conor slows down in the middle rounds, I can see Cerrone having similar success with knees and kicks to the body.

Still, I think the most likely outcome is that Conor stops him early. 

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13 minutes ago, jimufctna24 said:

He managed his gas tank better in the second fight. 

However, there were still periods in that fight where he slowed down. In the middle rounds, after McGregor had slowed down a bit, Diaz was able to land some very effective body shots on McGregor that visibly hurt him. McGregor even walked away from Diaz at one point to avoid in-fighting and possibly suffering more body shots. If Conor slows down in the middle rounds, I can see Cerrone having similar success with knees and kicks to the body.

Still, I think the most likely outcome is that Conor stops him early. 

No one fights Nate Diaz for five rounds and doesn't suffer a bit of a dip in productivity. And for me, Cerrone is nowhere near the level of volume or stamina fighter Nate is.

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12 hours ago, David said:

No one fights Nate Diaz for five rounds and doesn't suffer a bit of a dip in productivity. And for me, Cerrone is nowhere near the level of volume or stamina fighter Nate is.

Aye, fair point about volume. I think Diaz set a record for strikes thrown in the rematch.

Knowing both fighters, though, I think McGregor and Cerrone will set a fair old pace in the opening rounds. If the fight goes past the 2nd round, and there is indeed a drop in productivity, I think Cerrone has a decent chance if he can start landing his knee strikes. Cerrone has completely drained his opponents gas tank with knees to the body in the past and subsequently taken over the fight.

But we shall see in a few weeks time. Given that McGregor will probably stop Cerrone early, I don't think his cardio will really be tested anyway. 

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Same. I’d love to see Cowboy beat McGregor but I’ll take McGregor winning if we can see that. I’ll be a Scarface Jorge fan for one night. 

Dana was saying the other day that Masvidal and the BMF belt is what Conor wants so we might well get our wish. 

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Are we just not getting a press conference for this show at all. I think its the biggest middle finger from the ufc with this show. We will give you no build up, no press conference, a shitty poster and on top of all that make the uk pay for it on box office after we just moved to ESPN and bt sports which you guys in the UK have to pay extra to get 

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4 minutes ago, Kfogg1991 said:

Are we just not getting a press conference for this show at all. I think its the biggest middle finger from the ufc with this show. We will give you no build up, no press conference, a shitty poster and on top of all that make the uk pay for it on box office after we just moved to ESPN and bt sports which you guys in the UK have to pay extra to get 

I think McG will be doing minimal to no media for this event in all honesty, and with good reason. We know the kind of questions he's going to get, and I don't think Dana or the UFC want those questions aired at the moment. 

He'll probably do the weigh-ins and shit like that, but don't be surprised if he goes down the Rousey vs Nunes path for media obligations.

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