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UFC 246: McGregor vs Cerrone - Jan 18 🇺🇸


wandshogun09

Who wins and how?   

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I expected Conor to beat Cowboy, but I didn't think it would be that quick and easy. One thing I haven't seen mentioned much is that Conor's power seems to be there now at 170. He looks much more muscular now than he did for the Diaz fights, and came in at 170 exact for this fight, when he was underweight for both Diaz fights.

I know Cowboy seems to lose the big ones and that's what happened here again (the cries of a fixed fight in some circles are laughable though), but Cerrone has taken big shots from Robbie Lawler and Matt Brown without going down. And Conor has gone from throwing everything he could at Diaz to shutting Cowboy down with head strikes immediately.

If anything, I thought the old "glass body" of Cerrone would come into play, but it wasn't needed. I actually like Conor's chances more against Masvidal after that performance. I think Usman would kinda ragdoll him around though.

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20 hours ago, jimufctna24 said:

Khabib beats him 7 or 8 times out of 10. 

This is pure fan boy maddness. We have seen 1 fight Khabib won withoutout ever being in danger. Never been knocked down, never been in serious trouble. Yet in some deluded mma maths somehow Conor wins 3/2 out of ten. No evidence at all to support this. You are wrong. 

Edited by Cheapheat
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8 hours ago, Shane O' Mac Version 2 said:

I know Cowboy seems to lose the big ones and that's what happened here again (the cries of a fixed fight in some circles are laughable though), but Cerrone has taken big shots from Robbie Lawler and Matt Brown without going down. And Conor has gone from throwing everything he could at Diaz to shutting Cowboy down with head strikes immediately.

I think what Luke Thomas said about ageing fighters facing that one fight where their fortunes change for the worse, where you can see their bodies taking a turn for the worse, and that Cerrone suffered that against Tony Ferguson perhaps rings true. His nose was badly damaged in that fight with T-Ferg, and he took quite a lot of punishment against Gaethje as well.

I honestly don't think Cerrone has long left in the sport.

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14 hours ago, Cheapheat said:

This is pure fan boy maddness. We have seen 1 fight Khabib won withoutout ever being in danger. Never been knocked down, never been in serious trouble. Yet in some deluded mma maths somehow Conor wins 3/2 out of ten. No evidence at all to support this. You are wrong. 

Eh?

McGregor does have some weapons that could give Khabib problems on the right night:

- McGregor had success in the third round when he put Khabib on the back foot.

- He did slow Khabib down a bit with front kicks. 

- He does have relatively decent defensive grappling. 

- Conor is also a very dangerous striker. He has scored knockdowns on every opponent he's faced north of 145lbs, bar Khabib. 

Now, does that mean that McGregor will beat Khabib on the average night? No, of course not. Khabib beats him much more often than not. But MMA often throws up random results, where a fighter with few advantages over his opponent somehow wins. As examples, Uriah Hall > Mousasi, Serra > GSP, etc. 

This isn't a slight on Khabib. More of an acknowledgement of McGregor's skills and how MMA fights often do not go to script. 

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It's worth bearing in mind that what you've said above applies to virtually every fighter in the top ten of the UFC lightweight division. If Khabib fought any of them over 10 fights there's always a chance he would lose once, right? Anyone can land the right punch and score the win at some point, especially if they're given ten matches to do so!

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12 hours ago, David said:

It's worth bearing in mind that what you've said above applies to virtually every fighter in the top ten of the UFC lightweight division. If Khabib fought any of them over 10 fights there's always a chance he would lose once, right? Anyone can land the right punch and score the win at some point, especially if they're given ten matches to do so!

Of course. 

But I would give McGregor a better chance than almost all of them. I give Ferguson a bit better chance. Possibly Gaethje as well. That is about it. 

Edited by jimufctna24
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Just now, jimufctna24 said:

Of course. 

But I would give McGregor a better chance than almost all of them. I give Ferguson a bit better chance. Possibly Gaethje as well. 

The thing for me though is that people are giving McGregor a better chance based on absolute fuck all besides the fact that he "managed to put Khabib on the back foot a wee bit" and pure hype. It seems that the longer the fight is from memory the better chance McGregor has of winning a rematch, when back after the fight happened virtually no one was saying anything of the sort.

McGregor's biggest weapon is his striking. It was rendered entirely ineffective against Khabib. He troubled him not one jot. If we'd seen Khabib dropped, or even stunned and forced into defensive wrestling then I could perhaps buy in, but we didn't. 

How long before we start to hear the first real murmurings of McGregor "not being right" in their last fight? Not being at 100%?Then it'll quickly turn to Khabib being unwilling to rematch him because he knows that when McGregor is on his game he'll surely shoulder him into submission or use "the big left hand" to put him away sharpish.

It's all bollocks. The amount of people who seem to buy into the UFC hype and McGregor's sales pitch is astounding.

If we look at it objectively, Al Iaquinta has a better chance of beating Khabib if they fight ten times. He actually landed some shots that looked as though they were giving Khabib trouble, plus he offered more of a challenge to Khabib's wrestling game.

Khabib's undoing will be against someone who can trouble him on the feet and who can more importantly catch him on the ground. Tony Ferguson is the man who's best equipped for that job. McGregor isn't even in the conversation. 

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12 hours ago, David said:

The thing for me though is that people are giving McGregor a better chance based on absolute fuck all besides the fact that he "managed to put Khabib on the back foot a wee bit" and pure hype. It seems that the longer the fight is from memory the better chance McGregor has of winning a rematch, when back after the fight happened virtually no one was saying anything of the sort.

He managed to have a sustained period where he got the better of Khabib, hence why he won the third frame. I don't think anyone Khabib has faced, except Tibau has had that sort of success against him. 

Iaquinta had a nice flurry at the end of the forth round. But again, Khabib seemed to be having issues with his hand in the later rounds. It's also not like Iaquinta has a record of stopping fighters like McGregor has. 

The grappling comparison you draw also sells McGregor short. As Jack Slack wrote in the aftermath:

Quote

Equally surprising was McGregor’s ability to keep himself safe on the ground when stuck in the seated position along the fence. Where Edson Barboza and Michael Johnson immediately began working their way up and found themselves getting battered and laid down on a trapped arm, McGregor got caught in that usual Nurmagomedov leg mount position but protected his hands and hips well, also managing to prevent Nurmagomedov from landing those unique leg mount uppercuts.

Barboza is not a bad defensive grappler. He did everything his coach told him to do against Khabib. 

12 hours ago, David said:

How long before we start to hear the first real murmurings of McGregor "not being right" in their last fight?

That's already happened. But I take no notice of that. 

No one, on here at least, is claiming that McGregor is going to win the rematch. All I am saying is that he has a slightly better chance than you, and some others, are giving him credit for.

Edited by jimufctna24
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Jim's one of the most rational and measured MMA posters on this board, and I'd say the points he's put forward so far are worth discussing in themselves without needing to even touch upon McG fanboy keech. Nobody on here has said anything that says they buy into the hype machine.

I seem to remember that even you, David, noted that McG's takedown defence against Nurmagomedov was surprisingly more effective than anyone expected it had any right to be. It availed him none in the end, but he ended up lasting longer than he should've done. 

Personally, I don't think McGregor beats Nurmagomedov outside the usual puncher's chance, but I can see why Jim might give him a little bit more on the basis of what we saw in their match - doesn't make him a McG fanboy, nor does it mean anyone here's bought into the hype.

Edited by Carbomb
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Fair enough, I guess I should have known we'd see all of this chat resurface after the weekend. Knock yourself out lads, I'll chime back in if & when the rematch is signed. For now I'm way more intrigued by watching Khabib defend his strap against probably the best other 155lbs fighter on the planet. 

McGregor remains a side attraction to me. I thought that way before the Cowboy fight, and I still think that way. The only reason the UFC want to see McGregor face Khabib again is because of the dollars they can reap from the ugly hatred between the both of them. I can probably do without a few months of Muslim-bashing and rape accusations to be honest.

There's certainly very little such a fight offers from a competitive standpoint. 

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Again, though - nobody's saying they want to see a McG/Nurm rematch. We're just discussing the nature of what would happen if there was one. In fact, I'm fairly sure that most people on here have said, myself included, that they don't want to see such a rematch because there's no interest, it's pretty predictable outside a freak result that we'd get the same outcome, that there's way more interest in the Ferguson match or even a Gaethje match, and that McG doesn't deserve it anyway and should be fighting Masvidal or Lee or someone of a similar level before he even enters the conversation.

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Exactly. 

The only reason the rematch is being discussed so much is because Dana is floating the possibility of it. Pretty much anyone who is more than a casual MMA fan is more excited about Khabib vs Ferguson. 

It's a fresher and probably a more competitive match-up. 

Edited by jimufctna24
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More I think about it, the more I'd rather McG face Gaethje next. Infinitely more interesting, plus there'd be someone for me to root for - Gaethje seems like a great guy, and I'd like to see him get a big payday to set him up for when he moves on from MMA to do social work. The possibility of him taking McG's head off isn't exactly unappealing either (it's unlikely, given his reckless style, but it's still there).

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1 hour ago, Carbomb said:

More I think about it, the more I'd rather McG face Gaethje next. Infinitely more interesting, plus there'd be someone for me to root for - Gaethje seems like a great guy, and I'd like to see him get a big payday to set him up for when he moves on from MMA to do social work. The possibility of him taking McG's head off isn't exactly unappealing either (it's unlikely, given his reckless style, but it's still there).

Going by Dana's recent ramblings that won't be happening. At a push it'll be Masvidal at 170lbs, but I have no doubt Dana is secretly hoping Ferguson falls out of that fight with Khabib in April. He probably regrets making it now in all honesty.

Nothing sells like a fight built on rape accusations and Islamophobia.

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29 minutes ago, David said:

Going by Dana's recent ramblings that won't be happening. At a push it'll be Masvidal at 170lbs, but I have no doubt Dana is secretly hoping Ferguson falls out of that fight with Khabib in April. He probably regrets making it now in all honesty.

Nothing sells like a fight built on rape accusations and Islamophobia.

Yeh, once Plastic Caesar has his heart set on something, we certainly know about it.

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