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Gus Mears

General Erection 2019

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1 hour ago, AVM said:

Honestly, if its Long-Bailey and Burgon taking over then I'd say it's more likely that the Labour Party gets replaced as the official opposition in 2024 than it would be for them to get into Government. 

Maajid nawaz debated exactly this point on LBC yesterday, but it would take a "critical mass" of moderate Labour MPs to quit and join the Lib Dems. 

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There's some historic stats at https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-october-1974. It's a little hard to read as the age groups tracked have changed over the years. But while there's always been the age gap, in 1979 and 1983, the Conservatives were ahead in every age group.

In 1987, which had a result broadly similar 2019, the Conservatives were two points behind in 18-24s and 14 points ahead in over 65. Today it's 38 points behind in 18-24s and 42 points ahead in over 65s.

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So, does this mean that the Tory vote is in danger of literally dying off soon? And that similar happened in the period between 87-97?

Edited by Chris B

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There really is no where to hide for the current government they have the numbers to do anything they want. 
 

If they mess it up the next election could end very very differently 

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2 hours ago, quote the raven said:

Is this not part of the issue? Labour will need to win back the supporters they lost. I don't know anyone here that does not want a strong viable opposition. I voted for blairs labour, i also voted tory.

 Could i vote labour again of course i could. 

Same. 

I voted Conservative in 2001 - the first election in which I was able to vote. I voted Labour in 2005 because I couldn't vote for Michael Howard's manifesto, Tory in 2010 and 2015.  Lib Dem in the last 2 elections. Naturally I probably fall in the "centre right" category, but I've definitely let my feelings on the key issues of the day decide where to place my X.......In other words I'm certainly not tribal like some believe (although I could throw that accusation around myself). I won't vote Tory 'no matter what', and if there is a better option and Boris makes a mess of it (and with Brexit, he almost certainly will unless he now takes a centrist appoach given he doesn't have to pander to the right wing of his party anymore due to the size of his majority), then I may vote another way - but if it's a Socialist party and not a Social Democratic party, then I'd never vote for Labour.

And regardless of where I vote next time, our democracy necessitates a credible opposition - or it's no kind of democracy whatsoever. So why do I care who's the new Labour leader @Devon Malcolm? It's because I firmly believe strong opposition is necessary for a healthy democracy and governments who don't have a credible opposition become complacent, stale and at worst corrupt. I'm now thinking back to the Blair years when under Michael Howard and then IDS, the Tories were completely at sea. 

 

Edited by MPDTT

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10 minutes ago, quote the raven said:

There really is no where to hide for the current government they have the numbers to do anything they want. 
 

If they mess it up the next election could end very very differently 

I think this is the key point. Johnson has to get Brexit done in the next 5 years. How this is perceived will be key to the next election. If it looks like he has got us out of the EU and done various trade deals around the world that is half the battle won. There is a strong sentiment around here though that getting Brexit done includes sending home all eastern European immigrants, and possibly all immigrants.  If he doesn't manage that a lot of the racist locals will not be happy. 

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1 hour ago, Loki said:

All of this is true.  However, what classifies as conservatism also changes over time.

I'm fairly sure my parents generation in the 60s thought they were ushering in endless peace and tolerance in a generational shift.  Homosexuality was no longer illegal, the pill arrived, women's liberation really kicked in.

But the parameters of what was considered liberal kept developing, whereas a lot of people just become fixed in the morality of their youth.  So despite being lifelong liberals, and having some very close friends who are gay, my parents were opposed to gay marriage.

Similarly my generation that grew up with gay and black jokes in the schoolyard have lived through this change where homophobia and racism is no longer generally tolerated, gay marriage and so on.  BUT we're now faced with the potential social upset of the transgender movement, and even for many liberal people it's just a bit too confusing and too sudden, and people are struggling with it.

So perhaps it's not that people get more conservative as they get older, it's more that the Conservative party tends to represent a world view that is 20/30 years more traditional, and so people find themselves more aligned with those values as society continues to change.

Yeah, this is a really good point, and the Conservatives in recent years have done a good job of appearing more socially liberal too. You see it often even in activist circles, that those who might have been at the forefront 20-30 years ago aren't necessarily up with the most recent advances, and end up saying something that's seen as no longer acceptable. Times change.

And also, there's the argument that socially liberal factors don't really play much of a part in UK elections. It comes down to the economy and, increasingly, to immigration and security. But I still think there's a real danger to go down the "Blue Labour" route, of seeing that a focus on "minority" issues is what lost Labour support - forgetting that an awful lot of those "minorities" are dependent on the likes of the Labour party to look out for them, and that they're voters too.

Ultimately, in an awful lot of ways, what the result of this election shows is that until the Brexit mess is dealt with, Left/Right aren't particularly useful terms in a political environment where whole demographics are voting on Leave/Remain grounds instead - and it needs to be recognised that Left & Right don't map to Remain & Leave as neatly as an awful lot of well-meaning liberals would like it too.

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I think the “get out of my country” lot are in for a shock. The size of the majority means the ERG and the shadow of Nigel are long gone. 

Johnson has to get the trade deals and the nhs sorted, social care is also a must. 
 

If any of those 3 fail in the next five years they will very quickly come unstuck if faced with a centre left opposition 

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1 minute ago, quote the raven said:

I think the “get out of my country” lot are in for a shock. The size of the majority means the ERG and the shadow of Nigel are long gone. 

Johnson has to get the trade deals and the nhs sorted, social care is also a must. 
 

If any of those 3 fail in the next five years they will very quickly come unstuck if faced with a centre left opposition 

I agree on 2 of the three. I don't think the issue of Social Care moves the needle as much as you think. Law and order does however and knife crime will be key.

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I thought that this was an interesting read by a defeated Labour candidate, in that I'm encountering a lot of this world view at the moment and its largely impossible to break through. 

My Facebook feed is full of middle aged people, quite frankly I'd expect better of, who are beyond persuasion. Total write-off tbh.

“My feeling from a lot of Brexit supporting people a majority of those are blinded by Brexit. I think it’s become a cult to be brutally honest  

“Such is the determination to achieve Brexit, we have seen a large number of people who are immune to persuasion or accept an alternative point of view, and it’s been a dominating feature for them.”

https://www.countytimes.co.uk/news/18101110.tom-davies-devastated-election-result/

I'm sure that Corbyn didn't help and he has to go now. But he was the leader when Labour saw their vote share grow dramatically in 2017, so there are obviously many factors afoot here.

Edited by garynysmon

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8 minutes ago, garynysmon said:

 

I'm sure that Corbyn didn't help and he has to go now. But he was the leader when Labour saw their vote share grow dramatically in 2017, so there are obviously many factors afoot here.

Don’t under estimate the British public sticking two fingers up to May. The way she called the election thinking she would wipe labour away and the almost contempt she treated the country with when she refused to debate in any form. 

Labour lost this on two issues Brexit and Corbyn. Both of which won’t be an issue in 5 years time  

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2 minutes ago, quote the raven said:

Don’t under estimate the British public sticking two fingers up to May. The way she called the election thinking she would wipe labour away and the almost contempt she treated the country with when she refused to debate in any form. 

Labour lost this on two issues Brexit and Corbyn. Both of which won’t be an issue in 5 years time  

Brexit, Corbyn and the manifesto.....

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3 minutes ago, quote the raven said:

Don’t under estimate the British public sticking two fingers up to May. The way she called the election thinking she would wipe labour away and the almost contempt she treated the country with when she refused to debate in any form. 

Labour lost this on two issues Brexit and Corbyn. Both of which won’t be an issue in 5 years time  

And May's Social Care policy cost her. Which absolutely baffled me as I actually agreed with it. 

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1 minute ago, quote the raven said:

Don’t under estimate the British public sticking two fingers up to May. The way she called the election thinking she would wipe labour away and the almost contempt she treated the country with when she refused to debate in any form. 

Unlike Johnson, who interviewed and debated at every turn. One of the big differences for me was how favourable the press were to Johnson compared to May. I’m sure that had an effect, not an election winning effect but it added. 

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19 minutes ago, MPDTT said:

knife crime will be key.

It won't be key for 65 year old plus white people, it isn't them who are getting stabbed. 

What will affect them is if they have to pay for social care. My uncle has just passed away, he has spent the last 6 months in a care home since his wife died. His daughter looked at a lovely care home for him that was 5 minutes from her house, it would have been perfect. They were told by the owners that unless she had as a minimum £100k in the bank that they wouldn't take him. She didn't have the money so they had to find him another one. They finally got him into 1 an hour away from where she lived. I know that this isn't common practice from care homes, but it is heading that way. When it is all those 65+ tories might change their views. 

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