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General Erection 2019


Gus Mears

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A quick calculation of proportional vs FPTP, shows once again why its an outdated system.

Be interesting to see how many seats in total could have been taken from the Conservatives if either Labour or Lib Dem didn't run a candidate

 

Party  Vote Shr         Prop        Actua       Skew
Cons 0.436 283.4 361 77.6
Labour 0.323 209.95 203 -6.95
SNP 0.039 25.35 48 22.65
LD 0.115 74.75 11 -63.75
DUP 0.008 5.2 8 2.8
SF 0.005 3.25 6 2.75
PC 0.005 3.25 4 0.75
SDLP 0.004 2.6 2 -0.6
Grn 0.027 17.55 1 -16.55
Alli 0.004 2.6 1 -1.6
Brx 0.02 13 0 -13
UUP 0.002 1.3 0 -1.3
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22 minutes ago, Chest Rockwell said:

Yeah sorry to break it to you but this country has always been mostly shit.

I was referring mainly to the NHS, the working time directive, 28 days mandatory leave, food hygiene/health standards and David Beckham's right foot. Everything else is mostly shit.

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Not gonna lie, I feel pretty sick even though deep down this was the result I was expecting albeit maybe not this much of a landslide. There's always the comforting retreat of our social media echo chambers though where we can collectively claim everyone else is thick & our choices definitely weren't the problem.

14 minutes ago, hallicks said:

I wonder how different it would have been if Labour had simply pledged to negotiate and implement their own Brexit deal. Would it have been "enough" of a Brexit to keep the leave seats? 

 

Doubt it. People want to stick 2 fingers up to Johnny Foreigner & tell the EU to fuck off. Plus even if Labour went full on 'hard Brexit' the public would still pick the Tory version over Labour's simply because Johnson is more popular than Corbyn.

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7 hours ago, 300 said:

Since when did ‘rasslin fans become so leftie??

Personally, since I grew up in a mining town in the 80's and witnessed the scorched earth that Thatcher left behind.

That's the most disappointing thing for me today, people who the Tories called 'The Enemy Within', 30 odd years ago have gladly taken the bait and lined up for a shafting based purely on the obfuscation of Brexit. The same people who call remainers traitors, have just totally and utterly betrayed their own communities, children and neighbours.

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3 hours ago, Loki said:

Huh.  It turns out that sitting on the fence over Brexit and trying not to pick a side, doesn't work.

Labour lost Leave voters to the Tories and Remain to the LD and FPTP did the rest.

I'm staggered at the size of the win though.  It'll take more one election to lose a majority of this size..

Everyone is staggered by the size of the win,interviews with Conservatives show they are too. 

The neutral Brexit was very naive and I'm surprised anybody thought they would do well with that. My guess is they took too many safe seats for granted a bit like May in 2017.

Liberal Democrats policy of just stop it was a problem, as was their leader. People easily picked holes in Swinson and she just has about as much charisma an 80 year old man's testicle. 

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24 minutes ago, BrodyGraham said:

 

That's the most disappointing thing for me today, people who the Tories called 'The Enemy Within', 30 odd years ago have gladly taken the bait and lined up for a shafting based purely on the obfuscation of Brexit. The same people who call remainers traitors, have just totally and utterly betrayed their own communities, children and neighbours.

Blythe has gone Tory. The short of it is that Thatcher won in the end, the communities her policies destroyed ended up embracing her legacy. All it took was embracing racism & the feeling of a Labour party abandoning them.

They'll end up getting screwed, we know this & deep down the voters there probably know it too but they were left feeling like there was no alternative which is the truly tragic part of all this.

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6 hours ago, David said:

They'll likely push for another independence vote, to the surprise of no one. The only real difference between a new vote in a year or two and the previous vote is that the oil revenue predictions have dropped substantially.

Last time the financial argument was fairly open for debate, and the remain side still won. This time, it will be more clear-cut so I can see a larger vote in favour of remain. The Scottish GDP deficit is sitting at something like 8%, and the financial gap would see a requirement for austerity measures within Scotland that would make the Tories look like Corbyn-style spend-merchants, 

It would mean massive cuts to public services, or ridiculous taxes introduced. I can't see the idealistic, teary-eyed nationalistic argument standing up to the financial argument.

It will be interesting to see how far other factors (such as the EU and a Johnson Tory government) come in to play for such a thing. Sturgeon is a crafty operator.

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1 hour ago, Accident Prone said:

I was referring mainly to the NHS, the working time directive, 28 days mandatory leave, food hygiene/health standards and David Beckham's right foot. Everything else is mostly shit.

I admire that even within all the anger, you managed to get a sneaky Love Actually reference in there.

With the SNP now pretty much all of Scotland, and Sturgeon already saying she wants another independence vote, how does Johnson’s big new majority affect that? He’s already said he won’t permit it - does the size of the Conservative majority mean there’s no way she’ll get it?

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I can't see her getting another Referendum, no.  The Tories are having to abandon NI back to the EU, there's no way they'll countenance an independent Scotland on their watch.

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2 hours ago, StrongStyle said:

I mean this in the nicest possible way - fuck off you insufferable, right-wing Tory cunt.

How sad.

1. I voted Lib Dem and am not a Tory member. I voted to remain in 2016, I voted Lib Dem in 2017, I voted Lib Dem in 2019.

2. As a Jew who lost 2 grandparents in Auschwitz and sees the Labour party and the Corbynism movement as the biggest threat I've ever known in my lifetime, I'm absolutely delighted that Labour have been wiped out.

Perhaps you want to reflect on the fact that the silent majority remains silent time and time again until election day and then votes Tory because the left continuously like to berate anyone that voices views that differ to their own. I never throw personal insults, I never belittle anyone and I never swear at people for their different views.

I passionately believe his country needs a strong opposition for a healthy democracy to function, but if Momentum and Len McCluskey's influence on the Labour party isn't curtailed then I worry that Boris and the Tories will have free reign for a generation - and we've seen time and time again through history that governments that don't have credible opposition become complacent, corrupt and stale.

One more thing - some of the comments on this forum over the last few weeks about Rachel Riley have been absolutely disgusting and those who made them should hang their heads in shame. She's awesome.

 

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She's awesome.

Nah . A lot of people have spoken very well on the anti-semitism issue in Labour at the moment and avoided making it all about themselves or coming across woefully ill informed. Her calling Noam Chomsky an anti-semitie was one of the dumbest things I've ever heard anyone claim.

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