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Gus Mears

General Erection 2019

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4 hours ago, Carbomb said:

I was under the impression that the SDLP were basically Sinn Fein but with the difference that they'd take their seats in parliament. Are there any other significant differences between them now? I know their other main difference was the rejection of violence, but with the GFA I'd have thought that had become a lot less relevant.

Also, why's it not such a positive outlook for the Alliance? I would have thought that it would've been the preferred choice of any Protestant or Unionist who wants to Remain, which would give them the majority vote in Norn Iron?

Policy wise there probably isn't a huge difference between the two, post GFA. Where I expect most would see their difference (other than the ones you've mentioned) is in the belief that their intentions and commitment to their policies to put the people above their own self interests, are a little bit more genuine.

The SDLP and the UUP, are seen to be a lot more moderate and willing to talk, without the redlines, barriers to discussion and refusals to negotiate by vacating Stormont. Whether this is because that's actually the case or because they have very little power so they have to claim that they would be more open to debate and compromise, remains to be seen. 

Alliance are going to struggle simply because Northern Ireland has drifted increasingly more towards Sinn Fein and the DUP. The moderate vote overall has been suffering in general elections (although did well in the European elections last time). Alliance have a chance in East Belfast, where Naomi Long was a distant second the last time out, but if they are going to gain a seat then this will be it.

In North Down, Sylvia Hermon's retirement will mean over 40% of the vote share will be up for grabs. The Alliance could have been in with a shot of taking a good amount of that, but with Hermon's retirement, the UUP will be running a candidate again, so Alliance will probably get a  bump, but it'll likely come down to a race between the UUP and the DUP (who really wouldn't need to gain much, if UUP and Alliance split the rest). They'd only be in trouble if Hermon's voter base moved fully one way or the other, which is unlikely. 

I guess it all depends on just how scared the voters over here are over Brexit, in the areas that matter where it could make a difference in the polls. The area's most affiliated with remain in the referendum, are more likely to be Nationalist, so the Alliance candidate is not going to do as well there. In the areas where they have the most support, these are the areas where there is slightly less worry over the issues Brexit will bring (mainly that they are further away from the border), and so the vote bounce they may get might not be enough to make a real difference. 

Edited by WeeAl

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Done SwapMyVote and got matched with a lady in a marginal constituency who wants to vote green but is willing to vote Labour if someone in a safe seat votes Green. We've emailed each other after, and I feel fairly confident about it.

It may not mean much, but I feel like it's doing something for both of us and it might make a difference.

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31 minutes ago, DEF said:

Ahh right so Lib Dem is the tactical vote here. Thanks guys.

Yep, every tactical voting site either says Lib Dem or Don't Know for Wokingham.

Despite the result in 2017, the Lib Dems look like the closest challengers this time, partly because they have picked up in the polls since last time, partly because it's an area with a lot of Conservative Remainers who are more likely to go Lib Dem if they do defect (it's a hardcore Brexiter Tory as sitting MP), and partly because the Lib Dem candidate was a Conservative MP for a neighbouring constituency so has some local appeal.

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@WeeAl I guess the closest thing you have to a choice in your seat is whether you think having a UUP MP would be a net positive given the only likely alternative is an MP who doesn't take their seat.

For what its worth, historically they've supported the Conservatives when it comes to who forms a government and are officially a "we should leave the EU with a deal." However, they've also said the Johnson deal is so bad they'd rather have no Brexit. Most likely they'd not actively support Labour in a confidence vote, but if Corbyn did become PM they'd back a second referendum.

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8 minutes ago, Chris B said:

Done SwapMyVote and got matched with a lady in a marginal constituency who wants to vote green but is willing to vote Labour if someone in a safe seat votes Green. We've emailed each other after, and I feel fairly confident about it.

It may not mean much, but I feel like it's doing something for both of us and it might make a difference.

She single?

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The phones really are watching you aren’t they? I read the few posts above talking about Wokingham and then this popped up on my Facebook

5E92BD38-5823-4648-B1AC-C019833CC274.png

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Note of caution on the "massive queues, must be high turnout" theory is that it could just be working folk trying to get it done before work, rather than dick about in the dark on the way back.

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Note of caution on the "massive queues, must be high turnout" theory is that it could just be working folk trying to get it done before work, rather than dick about in the dark on the way back.

That was my thinking, but there does seem to have been a surge in interest on this. 69% in 2017, so if it is anywhere near that then there is a chance for a hung Parliament. Seems a lot of seats are on a knife edge. This is going to be tense.

I do genuinely think Johnson wont do 5 years though. I cannot see him make it through a full term at all.

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2 hours ago, JNLister said:

Note of caution on the "massive queues, must be high turnout" theory is that it could just be working folk trying to get it done before work, rather than dick about in the dark on the way back.

It was more my pointing out that there were quiet orderly queues. Not some panicking writhing mass of people. At least people are participating in democracy.

I still have a sinking feeling in my stomach, but I am a pessimist. Whilst I am not superstitious it seems apt tomorrow is Friday the 13th.

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I still have a sinking feeling in my stomach, but I am a pessimist. Whilst I am not superstitious it seems apt tomorrow is Friday the 13t

I think its best not to be hopeful. The wait for the first exit poll is going to be awful. Still, must be nice for Kinnock to get his name mentioned every election since 1992.

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