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General Erection 2019


Gus Mears

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Back onto proper discussion, what exactly is the outcome that we're looking for here then? Obviously a Conservative majority isn't something most of us would want, but what would allow for a fairer outcome regarding Brexit? And by fairer I mean a potential second vote on the matter now that much of the reality of the situation is available for all to see. 

I don't think Labour can win a majority, as much as they really should be able to, but what kind of outcome would be considered a "win" here? 

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Followed by him doing his acceptance speech on the steps, before blasting L'Internationale on the loudspeakers and claiming the EU is an undemocratic superstate forcing pointless diktats on the peoples of Europe. "Fuck the EU", cried Comrade Jezza! "In January, we break free from the shackles!"

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Given a Labour majority isn't happening, the easiest would be if Labour + SNP makes a majority and they can just do the Double Referendum Alliance. Problem is even that requires Labour gains on last time (and reclaiming seats from defectors.)

Probably the most realistic hope is Labour + SNP adding up to more than the Conservatives. That way either Johnson quits or you no confidence him, then Corbyn takes over, the SNP back him in any confidence/Queen's Speech vote, the Conservatives vote against, and everyone else abstains, meaning the Lib Dems get their referendum without "voting to put Corbyn in number 10".

There's also the slim possibility that we get a similar situation to the current parliament with the Conservatives running a minority government, no clear path to replacing them, and we just get more gridlock until either the EU forces a final decision or Johnson decides to offer a referendum in return for his deal being passed.

Edited by JNLister
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One for the TIL thread as well, but I just found out that non-UK Commonwealth citizens with LTR or Settled status are able to vote in UK general elections.

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You shouldn't obsessively check polls and projections every day, but if you do, this is probably the best one-stop way:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nUxnVJIFRo9A806IHtkTcd_Cxn1hO4P98nHCnBgeMFI/edit#gid=586083410

It's done by 326 Politics and is updated each night. It averages out the latest poll figures then tries to forecast what that could mean for each seat. If you scroll across the main tab, there's all sorts of juicy stuff like chances of winning the seat if the election was today and a simple "leans/likely/safe" ranking next to the result from last time so you can spot where seat changes are likely.

The last tab on the spreadsheet tracks the daily projected seat totals, which might be a smoother way to track "how the campaign is going" than trying to track voting intention, particularly when it comes to where the votes make a difference.

(Note this is only valid while it continues to show the Tory vote share ticking down each day. The moment it shows them gaining, it's clearly voodoo junk.)

Edited by JNLister
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Fuck Plaid Cymru and fuck the Greens. How they've formed a pact with the fucking Lib Dems. I'm fucking furious.  How can a left wing Celtic nationalist party get in bed with a bunch of fucking orange bookers who will get in bed with a right wing party if asked and sel everyone down the river? Fucking Brexit obsession. I'm fucking fuming. 

I'm voting Labour. 

Edited by PowerButchi
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