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wandshogun09

UFC Washington: Overeem vs Rozenstruik - Dec 7 🇺🇸

Who wins and how?   

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I’m all over that. Got a feeling Rozenstruik comes unstuck here, especially if Overeem decides to grapple. But it’s perfect really. Huge opportunity for Jair. 

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Overeem's an odd one. His list of wins is impressive, and his list of losses is really only to the best of their time, apart from his loss to Rothwell. This is probably his last chance to get a shot at the UFC title, so he needs to win this next match. I don't think he beats Miocic in a rematch, but, looking at the various heavies around at the moment, he's probably got the kind of game that runs Stipe closest - he's got elite-level technique, he's got a shit-ton of experience, and his jaw being made from Daim bars these days has probably led to him really working on his tactics and strategy more often than he's done before. He's also got the usual heavyweight's Russian Roulette chance too.

EDIT: Obviously, this is assuming he manages to get past Rozenstruik, which I'm not necessarily certain he does. His age is going to be a major factor; not downplaying Big Francis' win, but I do think a younger Overeem might not have lost to, let's face it, a more limited fighter like Ngannou. 

Edited by Carbomb

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21 minutes ago, Carbomb said:

and his jaw being made from Daim bars these days

Daim bars are pretty tough to be fair. I’d say Overeem’s chin durability is more like the topping of a lemon meringue. It’s barely there and will disintegrate with the slightest of knocks. 

He has definitely got better tactically. But even then, there are these lapses he has. Even his last fight, pure grappler Alexey Oleynik had him in a bit of bother on the feet early on. Granted that was likely because Overeem was anticipating the takedown so left himself open in the striking but still, he can’t afford to switch off here or Jair will off him quick. I don’t think Reem will fight this the same way anyway though. He’s no dummy and he’s the vastly superior grappler so I think he’ll be looking for the ground and pound and/or submission here. We haven’t seen much of Rozenstruik, he’s had 3 fights in the UFC and his last 2 went less than 30 seconds. But his UFC debut went into the second round and I vaguely recall his grappling looking very iffy before he eventually got the TKO. And that was against Junior Albini who’s several levels below Overeem. It’s a great fight all the same though because we know Rozenstruik can crack and we know about Overeem’s vulnerabilities. I wouldn’t be surprised if Rozenstruik wallops him. I think Overeem wins this if he plays it smart though.

And as rematches go, I wouldn’t mind seeing Miocic vs Overeem 2 sometime. The first fight was exciting while it lasted and Overeem did have Stipe in trouble for a minute before it all went horribly wrong. I’m sure Stipe would beat him again but I’d be up for watching it. 

Edited by wandshogun09

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I'm not sure I buy into the whole "bad chin" thing at heavyweight. Anyone who gets hit by a 240lbs+ man is going to feel it, no matter how tough your chin is.

Big Al has been stopped due to strikes three times in the past five years. That was to Blaydes, big Francis and Stipe. Not as if he's being dropped and stopped by chumps.

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True. But like any division, some guys are less durable than others. Nobody can dispute that Overeem, Arlovski, Fedor etc always seemed a bit more susceptible to getting knocked out than say Blagoy Ivanov or Mark Hunt and Roy Nelson in their younger days. Doesn’t mean they’re better fighters, in fact, the examples I’ve used there prove otherwise as the ‘chinny’ examples have had better careers overall. With Heavyweights it doesn’t matter so much how good your chin is, the human jaw isn’t supposed to get whacked by the power they throw with.

The important thing with Overeem is, he does genuinely seem to have made some changes to try to avoid those knockout shots by being more selective and technical in his approach. Same with Arlovski actually, despite the result the other night. There’s a reason these guys aren’t getting knocked out as much these days, the chin doesn’t get stronger so it’s a credit to them that they’ve been able to recognise where they were going wrong and at least limit the chances of it happening so much. 

Edited by wandshogun09

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Yeah, my main point was that the guys who've put Overeem away are the guys who tend to put people away. Arlovski always had a dicey chin, but I think Overeem has had a decent beard for most of his career. 

This dude he's facing though, he's a heavy-hitter. If he taps your chin, you're going down.

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Overeem was arguably more vulnerable at light-heavyweight in Pride. He'd almost always either finish his opponent or get stopped himself. In fact, only 1 out of 14 of his Pride fights went to a decision. When he came up against elite level light-heavies, such as Chuck, Shogun, and Lil Nog, he almost always get stopped due to damage or strikes. Sergei also slapped him around in 2007 when they fought in K1. 

Overeem was apparently aware of his own frailties. In turn, Golden Glory helped him develop a new fighting style, which was centred around tighter defence. This was one of the main reasons he went on such a run at heavyweight in the late 2000s. 

Edited by jimufctna24

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i cant recall Overeem ever being out down by a glancing shot either, when hes been KO'd its usually been by something harsh, hes suffered some bad KO's.

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I believe Overeem walked around at about 225lbs in the mid-2000s. That was the weight he came in at when he briefly fought in Pride's Heavyweight division. Pride's Light Heavyweight limit was 205lbs after 2004. 

So I suspect he was cutting around 20lbs for his fights with Shogun, Lil Nog, Belfort, etc. I am not sure how that compares with what other fighters were cutting at the time. 

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So the little break from UFC shows comes to an end with this next week. The next 3 weekends are loaded up between this, UFC 245 then the Ortega vs Zombie card on the 21st. I think the break was welcome. I wish they did it just a little bit more, to be honest. I’m that little bit more up for this show now because we’ve had a little breather from the rammed schedule. 

The card has taken some hits though. Most notably, the Carlos Condit vs Mickey Gall fight is off completely. Condit’s suffered a detached retina. Also, Alonzo Menifield is out of his fight with Trevor Smith. These are big blows for me. Condit-Gall was my ‘one to watch’ on this card and I’m high on Menifield and think he could be a real prospect. It’s still a solid little card though. Really looking forward to Overeem vs Rozenstruik and there are still a few decent fights on the undercard. 

No doubt the UFC will pay tribute in some way to Aniah Blanchard on this show. Not only is it the first show since that whole tragedy happened, but it’s also the card Walt Harris was supposed to headline which makes it even more significant. Given the circumstances, I think it’d be really cool if the UFC did something like donating a percentage of the money from this show to the Blanchard/Harris families. It won’t bring her back or lessen the pain obviously, but I’m sure it would help them out and it’d be a nice gesture. 

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Yeah, that'd be a nice touch. Id imagine the UFC have already looked after Harris and his family behind closed doors though.

A detached retina for Condit? that may be it for him. Hard injury to come back from late into your career.

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