UFC 244: Masvidal vs Diaz - Nov 2 🇺🇸

[wandshogun09]

Fuck The Rock. Robert Duran is going to be at the show tonight. And will apparently be walking Masvidal out.

So as well as a Rock we’ve got Hands Of Stone as well.

Here’s Masvidal fanboying it up with Duran; 

Oh and The Rock announced that he’s going to be playing Mark Kerr in an upcoming movie. 

Edited November 2, 2019 by wandshogun09

[jimufctna24]

I'm a fanboy of both Rock and Duran. 

The Rock starring in a Kerr biopic? Hmmm. The Smashing Machine documentary already showed us the real-life story and is probably the best MMA documentary ever created. I'm not sure a scripted film version is really needed. 

 

 

[Egg Shen]

10 hours ago, David said:

Stephen Thompson outstruck him. So did Al Iaquinta if memory serves me right. Masvidal is riding the wave of a mega hype train due to his quick finish of Askren and putting Till on the floor, but looking back at his body of work (pre-long hair era) he was a guy, like Nate, who could quite easily be figured out and beaten. Usually by decision.

No one has clearly outstruck Masvidal from my memory, maybe Wonderboy did but that's irrelevant when comparing to a potential fight with Nate who is about as different a striker as you can get.

Whats cost him on the cards so many times is the fact that he would coast and play a counter game and judges would favour the aggressor, rightfully losing certain fights. Coasting Masvidal seems to have been put to bed though.

 

[jimufctna24]

13 hours ago, Egg Shen said:

Whats cost him on the cards so many times is the fact that he would coast

That was Jack Slack's take in his preview article. 

Apparently, Masvidal's camp have been working hard on his conditioning since moving to welterweight. But we shall see tonight if he holds up over 5 rounds. I can't see the fight ending early. 

Oh, and for those pulling an all-nighter:

 

Edited November 2, 2019 by jimufctna24

[wandshogun09]

Just watched the weigh in. I’ve done the buildup all wonky, haven’t even got around to the Countdown, Embedded etc yet. Weigh in was tame really. The most notable things involved people not even fighting tonight. The Rock playing Dana during the main event face-off, Nick showing up with Nate for the first time in a while, Masvidal shouting out Roberto Duran. Getting the old goosebumps now it’s getting close though. 

Look at that for a picture. 

Anyway, Jorge Masvidal vs Nate Diaz - We’ve all pretty much had our say on this. It’s a tricky one to predict. What’s cost Masvidal in the past, like Egg says, is that he had a tendency to try to coast in some fights. He was really frustrating to watch at times. Looking at his last two fights, it would seem like that’s a thing of the past but I don’t know. He kind of had to ramp up the aggression against Till because Till was putting it on him right from the off. And we can’t really take anything from the Askren fight. If that knee fails to hit the sweet spot and knock Askren out, he likely winds up on bottom and spends the rest of that round there. As awesome as those two wins were, nobody can dispute that, I do think they’ve fooled people into thinking Masvidal is some monster now. Forgetting how middle of the road he was for all those years when the bandwagon was empty. And Nate’s no easier to be sure about. As good as he looked against Pettis, he’s fought once in 3 years. And even years ago when he was active, he was wildly inconsistent from one fight to the next. 

Tough one but I’m going with Diaz on points. Masvidal isn’t easy to land clean shots on so Nate might find it awkward early on, but I see him getting the better of the exchanges as the fight goes on and coming on strong in the middle and later rounds to take a decision. Can see his lanky frame and volume punching giving Masvidal some issues. Plus there’s something about Masvidal this week that makes me think Nate might ‘out-BMF’ him. Nothing to read too much into but Masvidal kind of seems to me like he’s happy to be there. First PPV main event, this BMF belt nonsense, The Rock’s there, he’s marking out for Roberto Duran, everyone’s on his dick after years of not caring. He seems a little bit too nice about Nate for my liking as well. I get that there’s respect there but I’ve never seen Masvidal being so nice. It’s almost like he’s putting Nate on a kind of pedestal. Meanwhile Nate is just saying ‘I’m gonna take a motherfucker out’. I don’t know. I might be completely off but as this fight week has gone on I’ve been getting a feeling that the occasion might be dazzling Masvidal just a little bit. He’s a veteran and I don’t think he’ll be overwhelmed by an event like this, but maybe distracted slightly. I don’t know, he doesn’t seem to have the same nasty edge he usually does. Nate seems as grumpy and anti-social as he always does on fight week. Whatever. I think it’ll be a bit of a war and tremendous to watch regardless. 

Kelvin Gastelum vs Darren Till - This has really been overlooked with all the talk of the main event. Should be fantastic though. Gastelum is coming off the FOTY (so far, for me) with Adesanya. Till’s coming off a couple of bad losses. This is supposed to be his big fresh start at Middleweight so his back is against the wall here. Love this matchup. Their styles are tailor made for a good old scrap. 

I’m having Gastelum by stoppage though. Can’t help thinking this is ending badly for Till. You never know. Maybe 185 was the right weight class for him all along and he goes out there and decimates Gastelum. But this is such a tough introduction to the division for Till. Getting Gastelum for your debut at 185 is rough. It’s a gamble. If Till pulls this off he’s immediately thrust into the title picture at 185. If he loses though, disaster. That’ll be 3 losses on the trot and his fresh start at 185 fucked before it even gets off the ground. Probably be wild while it lasts but I see Gastelum clobbering him at some stage in the fight. He always seems to find a way to land hurtful shots on bigger opponents and I’m not sure Till withstands the onslaught when it comes. 

Wonderboy Thompson vs Vicente Luque - This is a good one. Saw some people joking when the fight was announced that this should be for the ‘Nicest Motherfucker’ title. Two good guys and I don’t really want to see either lose but that’s the game. 

Wonderboy by decision for me. I really rate Luque and I think he’s a future contender at 170. But I think this is a really hard fight stylistically for him. Luque likes to come forward and be aggressive, that plays right into Thompson’s counter-striking Karate style. Only thing really making me question this one is the timing of the matchup. Wonderboy is coming up on 37 years old and got knocked out by Anthony Pettis in his last fight. If Father Time is catching up to him, he could be ripe for a young banger like Luque to take out. 

Derrick Lewis vs Blagoy Ivanov - The Black Beast is back! Feels like ages since we’ve seen him. He’s lost his last couple but they were to JDS and Daniel Cormier so he’s been operating at a high level. For whatever it’s worth, he looks in slightly better shape to me for this fight than usual. Ivanov is no cakewalk though. He’s coming off wins over Tai Tuivasa and Ben Rothwell. He’s granite tough as well. Won’t be easy to put away. 

I fancy Ivanov on points actually. I’d love to see Lewis score another mad knockout but he’s got a habit of kind of seemingly mentally checking out of fights at times, plus he’s always throwing his back out. There’s always the chance of a Lewis KO but Ivanov isn’t going away easily and if it goes to the cards I can’t see past Ivanov taking the decision just from making it ugly and outworking Lewis. Usually some weird/humorous talking points coming out of a Lewis fight though. 

Kevin Lee vs Gregor Gillespie - Really interesting fight here. At one point Lee was being hyped up as the next big thing in MMA. With divvies like Brendan Schaub acting like he was going to be a huge superstar on the Conor McGregor/Ronda Rousey level. Fans were running with it as well. He’s a good fighter but I always felt like the ‘future superstar’ talk was a load of old bollocks and based mostly on him constantly talking shit and wearing funny clothes at press conferences and stuff. He comes across really well when he drops all that front but keeps acting the twat when his fights come around. And it hasn’t panned out too well for him. He’s lost 3 of his last 5, and is now coming off back-to-back defeats to Al Iaquinta and Rafael Dos Anjos. At 155 and 170. So he’s shut out of the title mix in two weight classes now. Needless to say, he badly needs a win here. And they’ve matched him up with Gillespie, who’s undefeated at 13-0 with 11 finishes, is the hometown New York fighter and is a standout NCAA Division 1 wrestler. Does someone high up at UFC headquarters hate Lee or something? 

Gillespie by submission. Not a foregone conclusion or anything. This is a step up for Gillespie. But I think it’s a bad matchup for Lee. Especially coming off two losses and seeing how hard he took that loss to RDA in May. Then you factor in that Lee’s bread and butter is his grappling...and Gillespie is the better wrestler. Just doesn’t seem like a good night ahead for the Motown Phenom. 

Corey Anderson vs Johnny Walker - On a card this stacked, believe it or not, the result of this fight is the one I’m most invested in by far. Nothing even against Anderson. I don’t dislike him as much as some seem to. He’s a bit dull but seems a nice enough guy and he’s a solid fighter. Wins over Ilir Latifi and Glover Teixeira in his last couple. I want Walker to annihilate him though. In just 3 fights, Walker has fast become probably my favourite 205er on the roster. I don’t think he’s without flaws. He’s already had some losses earlier in his career. But he’s so much fun, in the cage and out of it. Such an odd but loveable character. If he can keep this streak going then him challenging Jon Jones for the title in 2020 seems like a no brainer. Dominick Reyes is probably first but I’d actually argue that if Walker wins this, he might actually be more deserving of the shot. It’s a good problem to have though. Especially in a division that was lacking new blood for so long. 

Walker by KO. Not confident in that. Maybe a bit of a heart over head thing. Knowing Anderson’s style, I could easily see him pissing on everyone’s chips here. He’s definitely got the potential to be the spoiler. But I also fancied Walker to lose to Misha Cirkunov in his last fight and Walker wrecked him in seconds. Walker has got something for sure. He’s a breath of fresh air and the best thing to happen to the Light Heavyweight division in fucking years. Just remains to be seen if he can keep delivering in the cage. This is definitely his trickiest test to date but if OSP and Jimi Manuwa can knock Anderson out, I don’t really see why Walker, who’s younger and more unpredictable and dynamic than those two, can’t. 

Full predictions then...

Nate Diaz by Decision. 

Kelvin Gastelum by KO/TKO. 

Wonderboy Thompson by Decision. 

Blagoy Ivanov by Decision. 

Gregor Gillespie by Submission. 

Johnny Walker by KO/TKO. 

Shane Burgos by Decision. 

Edmen Shahbazyan by KO/TKO. 

Jairzinho Rozenstruik by KO/TKO. 

Katlyn Chookagian by Decision. 

Chance Rencountre by Decision. 

Hakeem Dawodu by KO/TKO.

Card is deep as fuck. Don’t sleep on that undercard. Burgos vs Amirkhani and Dawodu vs Arce in particular are brilliant fights and I’m pretty much 50/50 on both. Shahbazyan looks like a legit prospect at just 21 years old and Rozenstruik is a killer striker and getting his big break against Arlovski. Ridiculous card. 

Edited November 2, 2019 by wandshogun09

[Egg Shen]

ive been overlooking the undercard completely for this, its great!

[WeeAl]

58 minutes ago, wandshogun09 said:

Nate Diaz by Decision. 

Kelvin Gastelum by KO/TKO. 

Wonderboy Thompson by Decision. 

Blagoy Ivanov by Decision. 

Gregor Gillespie by Submission. 

Johnny Walker by KO/TKO. 

Shane Burgos by Decision. 

Edmen Shahbazyan by KO/TKO. 

You been reading my mind Wand? I get the same feeling about all of the above fights. The only one I haven't picked exactly the same way is that I'm hedging between Gillespie by KO/Submission. I think he stops Lee by putting a pace on him that Lee will tire from in the third, leaving himself vulnerable.

I hope I'm wrong about the Lewis pick, but Ivanov is as tough as an aul boot. He's unlikely to go away easy. 

[Carbomb]

3 hours ago, wandshogun09 said:

The Rock announced that he’s going to be playing Mark Kerr in an upcoming movie. 

Fairly sure @John Matrix will be disappointed he's not being played by Arnie or Sly

[Egg Shen]

Gregor Gillespie has a real chance to be the breakout guy of 244. He's always flown under the radar really but hes sneaking up those rankings and people seem to think hes the dark horse of the division who may be able to give Khabib some real shit. Looking forward to that fight. Kevin Lee dropping back in to 155 after one fight at 170 is never good either, desperate times.

[wandshogun09]

Yeah, Gillespie and Mark Madsen (fought on the Copenhagen show a few weeks back) are the two guys at 155 who might actually give Khabib a run for his money in the grappling. Very early days for Madsen but he’s an Olympic silver medalist and looks a handful so far. There’s a bit of a way to go for both, obviously, but I’d be interested to see how Khabib would tackle guys like this who he might not be able to just bully around. 

[David]

5 hours ago, Egg Shen said:

No one has clearly outstruck Masvidal from my memory, maybe Wonderboy did but that's irrelevant when comparing to a potential fight with Nate who is about as different a striker as you can get.

Whats cost him on the cards so many times is the fact that he would coast and play a counter game and judges would favour the aggressor, rightfully losing certain fights. Coasting Masvidal seems to have been put to bed though.

Yes, and that coasting would result in him being outstruck. He would often coast because he'd run out of ideas. I think in all the hype we're sort of forgetting that Masvidal is a limited fighter. He's tough, he has heart, but he's limited. If he goes in here and tries to put the pressure on Diaz for a few rounds with little success I fully expect him to start coasting again and get outstruck by a guy who's a known volume puncher and cardio machine.

And there's no maybe about the Thompson fight, go back and watch it. First round Jorge tried using leg kicks, while Thompson landed cleaner strikes and caught him clean a few times, 2nd round Thompson drops Masvidal with a right hand, while Jorge is still throwing basic punches and trying to connect with leg kicks. He tries (and fails) with a takedown.  

Third frame sees another failed takedown attempt, and Masvidal starts missing badly with his punches, Thompson picking him off with quicker, more accurate strikes, resulting in a unanimous decision.

Masvidal is tough, he's hard to put away, but he's limited as hell. He has mediocre takedowns, his submission game is poor, his boxing is erratic and brawler-like, he tends to block punches with his face, and he's been dropped a few times. 

What he has is power, toughness, and size. 

Diaz is the far better mixed martial artist. He's tough and hard to put away as well, but he's also incredibly skilled on the feet, he's an incredible volume boxer, he has cardio for days, he has a shit hot ground game, and his fight IQ is higher in my opinion.

If Masvidal is to win this he needs to stop Diaz, which is possible due to his edge in power, but Nate clearly has more ways to win this fight.

[Egg Shen]

17 minutes ago, David said:

Yes, and that coasting would result in him being outstruck. He would often coast because he'd run out of ideas. 

Thats not necessarily the case, sometimes someone will win fights through pure volume alone despite limited success of actually landing and the guy doing less but throwing all the quality will lose, you know this. Thats something Masvidal has fallen victim too numerous times. Its a dangerous way to fight if a fight goes to the cards.

oh, and the Iaquinta fight you mentioned was voted Sherdog's Robbery of the Year with most believing Masvidal won a clear 30-27 (i dont recall the fight off the top of the my head), hence Iaquinta's infamous outburst post-fight.

 

[David]

1 minute ago, Egg Shen said:

Thats not necessarily the case, sometimes someone will win fights through pure volume alone despite limited success of actually landing and the guy doing less but throwing all the quality will lose, you know this.

Yes, but rarely is Masvidal the guy throwing the sparse quality. He's not really skilled enough to play that game. He wasn't back when he had short hair, and he isn't now despite his Scarface persona and his new cool look. To pull that kind of game off you need to be really fucking accurate with your strikes, and even more than that you need to be able to connect with the kind of shots that make it really obvious that you're the more accurate guy. He doesn't do that.

13 minutes ago, Egg Shen said:

oh, and the Iaquinta fight you mentioned was voted Sherdog's Robbery of the Year with most believing Masvidal won a clear 30-27 (i dont recall the fight off the top of the my head), hence Iaquinta's infamous outburst post-fight.

Yeah, I watched that fight last week along with the Thompson fight. It was close, but it wasn't a robbery. I gave Jorge the first round for sure (potentially a 10-8 by todays scoring in all honesty), 2nd round Masvidal was doing okay with his boxing, but Al was not only pressing the action but was scoring with body kicks and leg kicks that Masvidal was reacting negatively to. Close round, but that factor won it for Al in my view. Thing is, if Masvidal had taken advantage of the damage he'd done in the first frame he could have scored this round as well, but he didn't. He basically continued doing the same thing, while Al changed things up. That's what I mean by saying Jorge is a limited fighter. Longo and Serra had scouted that first round and sent Al out with the knowledge of what needed changing to combat it.

Third round and Jorge's leg was all kinds of fucked up from those kicks in the 2nd round. He was obviously restricted in his movement, but his boxing was still sharp enough as it was in the first and second, but again, he kept doing the same thing and he'd been figured out by this point. 

Masvidal landing more frequently with his left jab, but it was the same thing he'd been throwing all fight, and it wasn't having much effect. Al landed two very noticeable right hands that connected hard. Even the commentators believed that Al had come back in the 2nd & 3rd round and looked to be taking over. 

Again, it could have went either way for me. It came down to either the consistent jab and decent boxing of Masvidal and a good 1st round, or the effective leg kicks and more noticeable right hands of Al, coupled with him changing things up and commanding the cage and pressuring after the first. Masvidal didn't change anything up, he rarely does. He either wins by doing what he usually does, or he loses doing what he usually does. That's why he's a limited fighter in my view. He probably deserved a draw in this fight based solely on his work in the first round.

He could win tonight, but it'll be by knock out or stoppage due to strikes fairly early on. Because he'll just do what he always does, and if it goes a round or two and it's not working? Well, he'll just keep on doing it anyway, because he doesn't have much else.

[Kfogg1991]

I genuinely can't wait for this show tonight the card is stupid stacked. 

I can't put my finger on most the fights with winner's the show is that close 

[Keith Houchen]

8 hours ago, jimufctna24 said:

I'm not sure a scripted film version is really needed. 

Most people who watch it will not have heard of Mark Kerr beforehand, bet he'll get some dosh for it too.