Jump to content

All Tories Are Cunts thread


Devon Malcolm

Recommended Posts

Do ye reckon the Tories would win a GE? surely with all the downsides of a no deal Brexit becoming apparent they'd have a fair chance of not getting back in. I suppose that's assuming people are rational.

Edited by DCW
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Paid Members
6 hours ago, DCW said:

Do ye reckon the Tories would win a GE? surely with all the downsides of a no deal Brexit becoming apparent they'd have a fair chance of not getting back in. I suppose that's assuming people are rational.

With the Sun, Mail, Express and Sky News whipping up a pro-Boris media frenzy he'd probably have a pretty good chance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Paid Members
9 hours ago, DCW said:

Do ye reckon the Tories would win a GE?

I think it's a fair risk. I imagine that the English shires will continue to vote for a clear Leave party, especially if their candidate is a newly installed Brexiteer replacing an ousted Remainer. I suppose there's a chance of a Tory vote being split with The Brexit Party but I don't think the realities of what leaving the EU are (with or without a deal), the lies of the Leave campaign (the bus; the being found guilty of breaking electoral law, which would've resulted in the referendum being declared void if, ironically, it weren't of the non-binding variety), and the behaviour of this new government (headed by a known liar; proroguing Parliament in the run-up to the deadline; threatening to deselect MPs who don't vote the correct way even if the local association endorses them) won't change very much. They'll still bleat on about taking back control and allow their prejudice-confirmation services to tell them all about these saboteur MPs and treachorous judges. It's depressing.

Edited by Ronnie
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Paid Members

I totally see the logic of how the Tories are clear winners when it comes to total votes at the election but I'm not convinced that translates to an easy majority when it comes to winning specific constituencies.

It seems a reasonable hypothesis that:

* They lose 10 of their 12 Scottish seats without Ruth Davidson and with an ultra-hard Brexit policy.

* There's 16 seats where Tories have already crossed the floor or will lose the whip this week. They lose half of them either by the old MP winning as an independent or splitting the Tory vote.

* They lose most of the 22 seats that they gained from the Lib Dems in 2015 and held on to in 2017.

At that point they are down to 280-ish seats and need another 30 to get to the point where they can scrape a majority with the DUP. That means winning 30 more seats from Labour than Labour win from them. Most of the Labour target seats are tough gains and it's very plausible to see only half a dozen gains (in Remain-leaning seats with a very slim majority where the 2019 Tory policy would be enough to push it over the edge.)

That means 36 Tory gains from Labour and when you go down the list and look for Leave-leaning seats where either Brexit or Johnson-v-Corbyn could be factors, you start getting in constituencies that have literally been Labour forever. It's not impossible they could win there by hoovering up the hard-Brexity vote and having the opposition split, but it's a big ask. And even if there's no formal co-operation between Labour and Lib Dems, these are seats where the Lib Dems only every get a few percent, so there's a good chance voters will figure out for themselves that even if they don't like Labour's Brexit policy, they don't want to hand the seat to a Tory party that's pursuing no deal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Corbyn should call his bluff and vote against an election. Tie the bastard up in knots by demanding the extension. Be a fucking beauty of a sight when we're in the EU on November 1st. Johnson's credibility would be shot you would think. Vote of no confidence in him and let this shower fall. I know its a bit of a perfect scenario call, but I can still be vaguely excited by the fact that Johnson thinks he's playing a blinder only for it to kick him in the nuts.

Hard to see how anyone would command a majority at an election. It'll be framed as BREXIT V NO BREXIT even though Labour's position essentially remains that they will seek a deal. You'll see a lot of New Tory V Old Tory independents as well. You would hope Labour and Lib Dems will sort out a pact. Swinson has to swallow it.

What fucks me off about Johnson is his talk about getting on with NHS, Housing, Policing etc, has nothing to do with us leaving the EU. The EU has nothing to do with any of that. How fuckheads can fall for that shite is beyond me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Paid Members
6 minutes ago, Ronnie said:

I'd like to see a Remain Alliance candidate in Uxbridge and Ruislip. The Tory candidate barely scraped 50% in the previous two elections and everyone knows he's a cunt now, so it'd be sweet if they sent him packing.

I'm sure @JNLister has covered this before, but is there precedent for the PM's party winning an election but losing his seat?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Paid Members
1 minute ago, Carbomb said:

I'm sure @JNLister has covered this before, but is there precedent for the PM's party winning an election but losing his seat?

Nope -- only once where a PM has lost his seat (Balfour in 1906) and that was a heavy defeat for his party. Same happened in Australia in 2007.

The nearest thing would be Canada where there's been a couple of times when the PM has lost his seat and his party has lost their majority but remained in government. Both times the PM stayed in post and they engineered a by-election to get back in.

In the UK that could legally happen even if it's politically awkward. There's a very strong convention that the PM has to be either an MP or a Lord so that they can answer questions in Parliament, but when Alec Douglas-Home became Tory leader there was a three-week gap between him giving up his peerage and winning a by-election. They actually delayed the reopening of Parliament to avoid the awkward situation that would have created.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...