Paid Members gmoney Posted June 18, 2021 Paid Members Share Posted June 18, 2021 51 minutes ago, Carbomb said: It's Chesham & Amersham, though. A Tory town in Buckinghamshire - about as jolly-hockey-sticks, Range Rover-driving, horse-breeding, two-Dalmatian-owning Tory as you can fucking get. That guy really must have been shit to lose that place in this era. While that's all true, Labour polled around 11,000 there in 2017, finishing second. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Carbomb Posted June 18, 2021 Paid Members Share Posted June 18, 2021 (edited) 36 minutes ago, Chris B said: A combination of that, NIMBYism and dislike of Johnson, has led to 'get the tories out' tactical voting, by the looks of things, with Labour being ignored because they never play ball with that. It's really interesting to see - Labour not going into a broad coalition at this point is likely to cost them dearly. Thing is Labour's never really been the party of the rural south - it's usually contested between the Tories and the Lib Dems. Also, right now, the Lib Dems are still a bit toxic for their manifesto pledge to reverse Brexit - Labour's alleged "flip-flopping" on it cost them, so you can imagine what it probably did to the LDP. It strikes me that it's probably proving to be quite difficult for the centrist and left-wing parties to navigate the political landscape right now, as people's priorities are shifting a lot - one year it's Brexit, next it's how the pandemic has been dealt with, then back to Brexit, and so on. I wouldn't want to be a politician ever, but I certainly wouldn't want to be one right now - tactics and strategy must be a right headache. 5 minutes ago, gmoney said: While that's all true, Labour polled around 11,000 there in 2017, finishing second. True, but it's still a Tory stronghold, I don't think it even fell to Blair in '97. The Lib Dems winning it is pretty significant in this regard. Still, Labour taking second place is encouraging, if demographic shift is going to continue to be a factor as Chris B said. EDIT: Wow. A quick swatch at the Wiki says, for most of the constituency's history, the Tories won the seat with the double the votes of the second-placed candidate. Only exceptions were in the 70s, when the population was lower. Edited June 18, 2021 by Carbomb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members gmoney Posted June 18, 2021 Paid Members Share Posted June 18, 2021 Might have been encouraging in 2017, I doubt it's of much comfort today for many reasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Carbomb Posted June 18, 2021 Paid Members Share Posted June 18, 2021 Just now, gmoney said: Might have been encouraging in 2017, I doubt it's of much comfort today for many reasons. No, you're right there - but what I meant was that it was hopefully the sign of a gradual historic shift that could lead towards the Tories being eroded permanently in that area. If that many people in such a Tory constituency responded that well to relatively socialist policies, it suggests that there's something to be built upon. Of course, dropping it all to the Lib Dems would also suggest that business might be returning to normal, depressingly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members mim731 Posted June 18, 2021 Paid Members Share Posted June 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Carbomb said: I was hearing stuff about HS2. The NIMBY faction is fairly strong there. EDIT: Seems it was also about greenfield land being cleared for expensive housing developments: https://www.politics.co.uk/comment/2021/06/16/hs2-and-housebuilding-threaten-to-hurt-the-tories-in-chesham-amersham/  My Wife's Dad moved out to not far from Amersham a few years ago and on the drive there you see A LOT of anti HS2 signage along the roads. My favourite is one that reads "HS2 - Bury it?" which is a decidedly mixed message I feel.   Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Carbomb Posted June 18, 2021 Paid Members Share Posted June 18, 2021 (edited) My issue with HS2 is simply where it's being built for. The south-east already has plenty of infrastructure; the rest of the country needs it more. But the Westminster policy seems to be that we keep the economy centred around London, rather than not being idiots and trying to diversify it, so that we don't all end up screwed next time all the eggs we put in the basket get smashed again. Edited June 18, 2021 by Carbomb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Devon Malcolm Posted June 18, 2021 Author Paid Members Share Posted June 18, 2021 2 hours ago, Carbomb said: It's Chesham & Amersham, though. A Tory town in Buckinghamshire - about as jolly-hockey-sticks, Range Rover-driving, horse-breeding, two-Dalmatian-owning Tory as you can fucking get. That guy really must have been shit to lose that place in this era. Yes, but 622 votes? I bet the Natural Law party got more than that back in the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Chest Rockwell Posted June 18, 2021 Moderators Share Posted June 18, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, Chris B said: It's really interesting to see - Labour not going into a broad coalition at this point is likely to cost them dearly. Yeah it's not the first or last time in recent history where their arrogance has and will cost them, and this is just one of the ugly manifestations of that. Edited June 18, 2021 by Chest Rockwell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Carbomb Posted June 18, 2021 Paid Members Share Posted June 18, 2021 23 minutes ago, Devon Malcolm said: Yes, but 622 votes? I bet the Natural Law party got more than that back in the day. Yeh, I'd be interested to know what that's all about. After all, any other leader would be 20 points ahead. (Theoretically, Starmer should be of that section of the party that would appeal to the more centrist/social democrat voter, so I'm wondering what their objection was.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Dead Mike Posted June 18, 2021 Paid Members Share Posted June 18, 2021 Public support of BLM & general wokeness Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Houchen Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, Dead Mike said: Public support of BLM & general wokeness  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Hannibal Scorch Posted June 18, 2021 Paid Members Share Posted June 18, 2021 From listening to the people calling in to the radio today, people were saying Labour effectively helped the LD win there in the hope the favour is returned in another constituency where it’s a close Tory seat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Houchen Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 39 minutes ago, Hannibal Scorch said:  From listening to the people calling in to the radio today  I think I’ve identified the origin of where this went wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paid Members Hannibal Scorch Posted June 18, 2021 Paid Members Share Posted June 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Keith Houchen said: I think I’ve identified the origin of where this went wrong. I mean, thats political analysts as well as the public, but anything for a cheap pop. This article breaks it down quite well, but I also agree the next by-election is the one that can really call labour harm https://news.sky.com/story/chesham-and-amersham-by-election-why-the-tories-should-be-worried-by-lib-dems-shock-win-and-why-its-not-all-bad-news-for-labour-12335744 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Houchen Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 Nah, even Tonty Bliar was wheeled out to endorse the candidate. No way they threw it. Unless they’re saying they know he’s the kiss of death and all the centrists who worship him are actually playing some long game 4D chess for all these years.  In more tories are cunts news. You can already hear what the gammonati will say about this one.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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