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UFC 239: Jones vs Santos - Jul 6 🇺🇸

Who wins and how?   

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Ben Askren sits down with Brett Okamoto ahead of 239. Great listen as usual. Obviously talks the Masvidal fight, relationship with Dana and the Colby Covington situation; 

”Jorge said something like he wants to end my bloodline. Which I found hilarious because I already have three kids.” 

:laugh: 

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Thiago Santos goes for the full 80's movie henchman look here...

 

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Am I right in thinking UFC PPVs still go up on Fight Pass in the UK 48 hours after the original airing?

If so, I reckon I'll just avoid spoilers for a couple of days and watch on there for a third of the cost.

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i think the UK got them on Fight Pass a few days before the US did because of the PPV deal in America. I imagine if its on BT PPV we would have to wait longer too.

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A thought crossed my mind the other day. 

When the greats of MMA have been dethroned or shuck to their core, it's usually come against very good fighters, but not all-time greats. GSP was stopped by Matt Serra, and later taken to the wire by Hendricks. Anderson's reign as Middleweight kingpin was stopped by Weidman. Fedor's legendary run at the top of the Heavyweight division was halted by Werdum. 

I do think Jones will lose properly one day (sorry Matt Hamill). No fighter is 100% bullet proof. But history tell us that Jones is just as likely to be caught out by a Thiago Santos or Anthony Smith than he is a Daniel Cormier or Cain Velasquez. After all, to date, the closest Jones has come to defeat was when Vitor Belfort almost armbarred him in 2012. 

Of course, I expect Jones to win on Sunday evening. I see little in Santos' game to suggest that he can trouble Jones. But one day, a fighter of Santos' calibre might just catch Jones out. 

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Yeh, Jones will likely get caught one day. Jones is so good though i expect it to be a freaky overhand shot or crazy strike out of a scramble that gets him because i dont see anyone actually beating him over the course of a fight. If you wanna apply thay thinking id say Thiago Santos has about as good a chance as anyone because he has crazy power.

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Unlike boxing, MMA is practically impossible to get through an entire career without losing to someone. There's simply too many ways for it to happen. Jones will lose eventually, as will Khabib.

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It will be interesting to see how Jones holds up with the sort of active "I need the cash" schedule he wants. As impressive as he is, he's only had 6 fights in the last 5 years. Doing 3 or 4 fights a year, his body is surely going to start feeling it.

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38 minutes ago, ColinBollocks said:

It will be interesting to see how Jones holds up with the sort of active "I need the cash" schedule he wants. As impressive as he is, he's only had 6 fights in the last 5 years. Doing 3 or 4 fights a year, his body is surely going to start feeling it.

It really depends on a number of factors though, doesn't it? Are the guys he's facing good enough to really put him through the wringer? That's only happened once against Gustafsson, and it now looks likely that his partying and lack of focus played a considerable part in that. 

If he's getting through fights without much damage, and he's training smart (and he will be, considering where he trains) then I don't see physical problems being an issue. I think if he loses it's because he gets clipped, much like GSP against Serra.

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He may come again thinking he's going to have an easy night and get caught. Especially when you are in the 'clearing out the division' stage.

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This is about as close to Rumble Johnson v Jones fight that I'm ever going to get, so I'm super intrigued.

I expect Jones to get the TD early and finish with elbow or a sub, but there's that tiny what if Santos can lay a glove on him and make it count. 

Can't wait. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, David said:

Unlike boxing, MMA is practically impossible to get through an entire career without losing to someone. There's simply too many ways for it to happen. Jones will lose eventually, as will Khabib.

Not just the nature of the sport, but also the nature of the business of the sport as well. The career drivers in MMA are the promotions, who will for the most part dictate whom a fighter faces whether they want to or not, whereas boxing's career drivers are the fighters themselves and their managers, who will pick and choose whom to face and when, and also flit between promotions to defend titles against opponents they're more sure they can beat. I believe there's a fair chance that Floyd Mayweather would not still have an undefeated record at this point if boxing was dictated by a single promotion.

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yeh, Mayweather was the absolute master of navigating his own career path. 

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I think even the most protected and skilful boxers/fighters need a bit of luck from the judges, etc. Mayweather got very lucky against Castillo early in his career. Most believe that Castillo at least deserved a draw. Quite a few, including HBO's official scorer, even had Castillo winning. But the judges said otherwise. 

Likewise in MMA. Few would accuse Khabib of being protected, but he has had two decisions go his way that many thought were gifts. I have never seen it personally, but there is meant to be a fight he had Russia early in his career that many felt he lost. A lot of media outlets, including Sherdog and MMA Weekly, also felt he lost against Tibau. 

The other reason why I think Jones will get caught out one day is that he fights at 205lbs, where fighters carry a lot of power. As David said, it is likely he will get clipped at some point. I do think Khabib will lose before Jones though. It's easier to picture Khabib losing at present time. I can see Khabib eventually going the way of Cain and fading due to injury. AKA are notorious for working their fighters hard to the point where their body starts to break down. Moreover, Tony Ferguson might prove to be the better fighter. 

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Thing about Jones is he has a fight IQ that enables him to neutralise most heavy hitters, and a fairly iron jaw that gets him through the few that make it past his guard and reach. Clipping him is always a possibility, but he's really good at making that possibility as infinitesimal as possible. Nurmagomedov, on the other hand, gets hit way too often for it not to cost him sooner or later.

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