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Devon Malcolm

Brexit

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I don't get what they're doing either, but I'm so fucking tired of this Labour civil war.  I thought Corbyn was a breath of fresh air when he became leader, and to some extent I think he's been good in injecting genuine socialism back into the Labour movement, but he's also a terrible, terrible leader.  Divisive, authoritarian, incapable of making a decision.  He's made the Labour party the weakest opposition party I can ever remember, at a time when we desperately need a strong one.

I was musing the other day - imagine what Britain might be like now had Ed Miliband won the 2015 General Election.  He was a proper left-wing Labour guy as well, although not to the extent of Corbyn.  Imagine - no referendum, no chaos, we'd be strong on the international stage, speaking out on Saudi Arabia and Trump, continuing to shape Europe to our own needs...

I didn't vote for him but I respected him and he'd have made a good PM.  I can't say that about Corbyn.  He will lose an election to Boris just as he lost to May.  Keep some of his policies but get rid of him, for God's sake.  For all their sins, at least the Tory party understands that you have to be IN power to make a difference.  Corbyn has spent so long on the outside, that's the only place he's comfortable.

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Pretty much echoing my sentiments. James O Brien described the current situation as 'the 'footballisation' of politics' which I thought was pretty much spot on. Whereas you've got a section of the electorate who have always been politically engaged you've also got large numbers of people who have 'picked a side' & are just wanting to rally against the 'others'. Whether it's Tommy Robinson supporting Brexiters calling anyone they don't agree with 'Traitors' or Momentum cretins calling other Labour members 'Red Tories' it's the exact same thing & neither side has the self awareness to recognise they're different cheeks of the same arse. Completely devoid of any pragmatism, nuance or flexibility.

The main difference is that when it comes to crunch most Tory voters will still vote Tory, there might be enough hard-liners who'd jump to UKIP/Brexit party but it's mainly a protest vote. The left will continue to eat itself as people would rather vote for a minority party like the Greens or 'spoil their ballot' so they can preach to friends about how principled they are as this takes precedent to them over actually making achievable change. It's 6th form politics at it's worst & as you rightly say, we're at a time when a 'progressive alliance' is desperately needed.

The Lib Dems are sweeping up votes from former Labour voters sick of Labour's Brexit policy & moderate Tories who aren't happy to trash the economy in pursuit of Brexit. They've said they wont go into coalition with a Corbyn led Labour as he's a staunch Brexiter. As I said previously, Labour's last manifesto was spot on, they don't need to change much in there at all. It just needs to be presented by someone capable who isn't completely toxic to the vast majority.

Edited by Dead Mike

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Trying to get some thread integrity back after the Cunty Tory thread got derailed. For those (understandably) confused by this weeks parliamentary shenanigans this is a decent summary to bring you up to speed......

 

It's hard to imagine where he goes from here. Boris Johnson had clearly wanted an election. You knew he wanted it from the first time he said he definitely wouldn't hold one. Everything he'd done since the Tory leadership contest seemed to corroborate that, from testing Facebook ads, to finessing attack lines, to announcing policy measures on policing and education.

Most of the events during the summer seemed to fall in line with that strategy. He needed an excuse and he was fairly certain some development in parliament would provide him with one. But tonight he finally pulled the trigger and nothing came out.

He needed a two-thirds majority under the Fixed-terms-Parliament-Act. But Labour rejected the request. In the end the vote came in at 298 to 56, with the opposition party abstaining.

He lashed out as best he could. "I can only speculate about the reasons for his hesitation," Johnson said of Jeremy Corbyn. "The obvious reason is that he doesn't think he will win."

But in truth, he seemed completely stuck. What could he do now? He has no majority. It left with Phillip Lee to walk across the floor of the House yesterday, and then bottomed out into the centre of the earth when the prime minister withdrew the whip from the 21 Tory MPs who rebelled against him in the emergency debate which followed.

The ensuing legislation shuttled through its stages in the Commons today. Brexit-supporting peers will try to kill it in the Lords, but the chances are pretty good that it can be secured by the end of the week or the start of the next.

It would force the prime minister to extend Article 50 by October 19th if he doesn't get a deal. Johnson has promised he would never do that. But what avenue does he have if he cannot fight an election before then? To break the law? To resign? Neither option can seem particularly attractive.

Politics now becomes an extremely delicate game of strategy, conducted to impossibly high stakes. Labour has spotted the trap and does not want to fall into it. But it also knows that it will be vulnerable to the argument that it is frightened of going to the country. How long can it withstand?

If it goes too quickly, it hands Johnson exactly the thing he wants: to go for an election while he still has a bounce, with a pre-prepared parliament-versus-the-people message, while being sufficiently mercurial on no-deal that he can neutralise the threat from the Brexit party.

Allowing the vote to happen before late October would also fail to prevent no-deal, because a new Johnson administration would be in place in time to deliver it.

"The offer an election today is like the offer of an apple to Snow White from the wicked queen," Corbyn concluded. "What he is offering is not an apple, or even an election, but the poison of no-deal. Let this bill pass and gain Royal Assent, then we will back an election."

On the face of it, this seemed ruinous. The bill will probably get Royal Assent in the next few days. If Corbyn then immediately accepted one of Johnson's requests for an election, it would take place before late October. A Johnson majority, if he got one, could then be used to repeal the rebel legislation and secure no-deal.

But there was a little more wriggle room in there than that. Saying he would "back" an election is not the same as saying he would activate it. Could he block an election during the tiny gap between Royal Assent and prorogation starting? He'd then be clear for the next five weeks, with Johnson's own plan to silence parliament now working against him. 

Or perhaps a no-confidence vote could be used. This would start a 14-day period in which to try and form a government, either through himself as prime minister or someone like Harriet Harman. They could then extend Article 50 and then hold an election. And importantly the process would kill more time.

There is space to work with in Corbyn's statement. It's still not clear which way he'll go. And there's a sustained effort from within the Labour party to stop him falling into Johnson's trap.

What happens now will all be about pressure. If Corbyn feels it is building against him and the public see him as cowardly, he'll pull the trigger. If it starts to feel like politicians are playing clever-clever games over the heads of the electorate, he'll pull the trigger.

But that goes both ways. This week showed just how badly Johnson could be made to squirm in a trap made of his own misjudged strategy. He looked increasingly like he was being damaged and weakened. If that pressure seems to be having a serious effect, it will hold Corbyn back.

Either way, we'll probably know how it pans out by early next week. The result could decide which way the Brexit story finally ends.

Ian Dunt is editor of Politics.co.uk and the author of Brexit: What The Hell Happens Now?

 

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I do wonder how successful the "Corbyn's scared of an election" attacks will be electorally. Yes, they might land with some people now, but it's going to be a bit of a redundant point once an election is actually happening.

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Yeah. It's not like the whole 'May is too shook to debate' thing which worked because she is not good at campaigning. Corbyn loves that shit (as long as it's not campaigning for the Remain vote....)

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I wonder if deep down. Boris is glad of the delay to an election. Given his chosen date was changed, due to someone not checking the Jewish calendar. Corbyn may relish campaigning, but I think so does Boris.

Re: the amendment from Kinnock to bring May's deal back to the chamber. Many seemed to think it was a fuck up, but is it not more plausible the Gov refused to put up tellers for a division, allowing it through by "a technicality"; giving BJ a ready made excuse.

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34 minutes ago, bigfoote said:

I wonder if deep down. Boris is glad of the delay to an election. Given his chosen date was changed, due to someone not checking the Jewish calendar. Corbyn may relish campaigning, but I think so does Boris.

Re: the amendment from Kinnock to bring May's deal back to the chamber. Many seemed to think it was a fuck up, but is it not more plausible the Gov refused to put up tellers for a division, allowing it through by "a technicality"; giving BJ a ready made excuse.

Actually it was being reported the teller 'mistake' by the Government was to try and get an amendment added that would force Labour to vote down the bill entirely. But Labour's lawyers didn't deem it legally significant so the skullduggery failed anyway.

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Another theory is the Government hoped the Lords would take out the amendment, which would have added an extra day where it had to go back to the Commons for approval rather than go straight into law. 

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What a shambles. If this was cricket, the Tories are taking 3 minutes over every delivery and Labour are leaving most of them and taking the occassional single.

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2 hours ago, JNLister said:

I do wonder how successful the "Corbyn's scared of an election" attacks will be electorally. Yes, they might land with some people now, but it's going to be a bit of a redundant point once an election is actually happening.

It would have probably been effective if Johnson wasn't being so transparent. He was practically begging Corbyn for an election.

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Re: Corbyn. Nice to see four years of endless media bombardment hasn't gone to waste. Cameron was the first one to suggest that he "just go. " Alas, Dipshit Dave followed his own advice after the referendum and left the country to swim for 3+ years in a river of shit that he created. Then we had the chicken coup, unfortunately for the PLP it didn't quite work out as they hoped. May pissed her majority into the tip after starting out 25 points ahead in the polls, had to bribe the DUP to stay in power and was finally made to "just go" by her own party a few months back when her deal got fucked off by the commons three times. Now he's against Johnson, who leads a minority government, can't get anything through parliament, and is being publicly humiliated on a daily basis by people on all sides, not least by one man - Corbyn - who added 3.5 million votes to the Labour total in 2017.

So, given Corbyn's political toxicity to the electorate really hasn't changed since day 1, I take umbrage with the idea that he needs to "just go." I dunno if he can win an election outright, or if he'd end up in a coalition. I think he's trying to show that you can take on Murdoch, Rothermere, the BBC, and the rest, suffer years of sustained media-driven abuse and still reach the millions of people marginalised by a decade of austerity, wage repression, rising poverty and cuts to public spending, and maybe come out on top. 

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46 minutes ago, hallicks said:

Re: Corbyn. Nice to see four years of endless media bombardment hasn't gone to waste. Cameron was the first one to suggest that he "just go. " Alas, Dipshit Dave followed his own advice after the referendum and left the country to swim for 3+ years in a river of shit that he created. Then we had the chicken coup, unfortunately for the PLP it didn't quite work out as they hoped. May pissed her majority into the tip after starting out 25 points ahead in the polls, had to bribe the DUP to stay in power and was finally made to "just go" by her own party a few months back when her deal got fucked off by the commons three times. Now he's against Johnson, who leads a minority government, can't get anything through parliament, and is being publicly humiliated on a daily basis by people on all sides, not least by one man - Corbyn - who added 3.5 million votes to the Labour total in 2017.

So, given Corbyn's political toxicity to the electorate really hasn't changed since day 1, I take umbrage with the idea that he needs to "just go." I dunno if he can win an election outright, or if he'd end up in a coalition. I think he's trying to show that you can take on Murdoch, Rothermere, the BBC, and the rest, suffer years of sustained media-driven abuse and still reach the millions of people marginalised by a decade of austerity, wage repression, rising poverty and cuts to public spending, and maybe come out on top. 

Sure.  But the alternative story there is that over 4 years of the most self-destructive, incompetent, minority government in anyone's lifetime, he's managed to get precisely nowhere in the polls.  Being a lovely cuddly magic grandpa means nothing if you can't form a government.

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