Brexit

[JNLister]

That's a bigger ask then. Because if you follow up from 2017, the Conservatives could lose just half a percentage point (still giving them a bigger share than they got in any election from 1983-2015), be 40 seats ahead of Labour, and still be unable to form a government,

[hallicks]

4 hours ago, Brewster McCloud said:

 

 

4 hours ago, Brewster McCloud said:

Well, yes. He was one of the instigators of this shambles and he should be brought to book about it. He's little more than a carny, spouting shite that he thought might get him into the top job. But that's gone now. I've admired the Conservative party in the past, not as a raging Tory, but because I thought they had rational beliefs behind many of their policies. Now? Fuck them. The only troulble is that the opposition can't muster much in response. 

The government was defeated in parliament three times in a single day last week.

Labour are playing the long game here, which is frustrating for remainers. I don't think they have any option. They can't do anything (beyond what they're currently doing) until they're in a position to force a GE or even a 2nd ref, which they've said they'd support if a GE wasn't on the table.

Something has to give because May's not getting any concessions from the EU, so whatever she does, there will be group within the tories or DUP that will vote it down. Either we drift along until no deal, or shit goes down in Parliament. 

Edited December 14, 2018 by hallicks

[Brewster McCloud]

Playing the long game? I'm sorry, but no, they're not. The Labour party haven't had a coherent strategy for years, not since Blair swept to power. You can laugh at the shambles that the nasty party have become all you want, but to even entertain the idea that the opposition is any better is. at best foolish, and at worse damaging. 

Edited December 14, 2018 by Brewster McCloud

[hallicks]

21 minutes ago, Brewster McCloud said:

Playing the long game? I'm sorry, but no, they're not. The Labour party haven't had a coherent strategy for years, not since Blair swept to power. You can laugh at the shambles that the nasty party have become all you want, but to even entertain the idea that the opposition is any better is. at best foolish, and at worse damaging. 

Regarding Brexit, they are, though time is short. Regarding "plans" generally, check out the 2017 manifesto. A clear alternative to neo-liberal economics, national investment fund, national education service, more police, renationalising trains, water etc. None of that's changed, it just doesn't get mentioned in the press. 

The shambles is the blairite bit of the PLP that have tried to shaft Corbyn at every turn. They're getting weeded out, slowly. 

[The King Of Swing]

3 hours ago, Factotum said:

Not at all when it comes to him. There are Tory MPs willing to leave the party if he becomes leader. He's toxic in that party.

I'm willing to bet that most (if any other than maybe Ken Clarke) of them wouldn't actually leave the party. Easy to talk a big game until their seats/political career are on the line.

Edited December 14, 2018 by The King Of Swing

[David]

1 hour ago, JNLister said:

That's a bigger ask then.

With someone who's as popular as Boris, or even Mogga, going up against the "wet blanket Commie IRA scumbag" Corbyn? Call me crazy, but I still like those odds. The Tories are still holding their own at the moment despite the fact that they've pretty much done everything they possibly could to fuck everything up.

Public sentiment, from what I've seen from afar, is that we're all sick of the EU pushing us around, and it's time for a jolly old fashioned Great British PM to take the mantle and "make Britain great again."

Both Boris and Fink-Nottle know that, and they're playing that card (with some help from friends of daddy in the media.)

Don't get me wrong, I hope it goes the exact opposite and the majority decide they want to vote for Corbyn despite the media making him look like a limp-wristed liberal communist, while portraying Boris as the lone figure standing against the evil EU, blonde mop blowing in the wind, and a small Union Jack flag in his pudgy hand.

Can't see it though.

1 hour ago, hallicks said:

The shambles is the blairite bit of the PLP that have tried to shaft Corbyn at every turn. They're getting weeded out, slowly. 

I don't think that'll matter, as the British public aren't voting for a Corbyn-led Labour in a General Election, not at the moment with sentiment being as it is. It just won't be happening, and the media will make sure it doesn't.

[hallicks]

51 minutes ago, David said:

I don't think that'll matter, as the British public aren't voting for a Corbyn-led Labour in a General Election, not at the moment with sentiment being as it is. It just won't be happening, and the media will make sure it doesn't.

12.88m voted labour in 2017, up 9.6% from 2 years previously under Ed Miliband. Here's an interesting poll-tracking graph from the wikipedia article on that GE:

When an election is called, news outlets are bound by law to give equal coverage to the main parties...and look what happened. They'll have to do the same if another one is called next year, and Labour have been around 37-41% for the last 6 months, way up from May 2017. 

I don't doubt that the personal attacks on Corbyn will reach fever pitch if there is another GE soon, but he's made it is this far. Part of the whole media narrative is to drum a self-fulfilling prophecy into people's heads that "Corbyn can't win!" We'll see. 

[David]

I guess we will see, but I'll be very surprised if we see the UK buck the right-wing trend that's sweeping the west at the moment.

[Chris B]

I think it's worth bearing in mind that Corbyn vs Boris or Rees-Mogg is a very different proposition to the last few elections. 

The Tories have been trading off the 'safe pair of hands' myth for years, portraying Miliband and Corbyn as reckless, dangerous mavericks. Rightly or wrongly, May in particular was somewhat seen as that safe pair of hands.

The chaos of the last year or two has really damaged that myth. But if you take a Johnson or Rees-Mogg, then the election story becomes more a maverick vs a maverick. 

Safe vs unknown is one thing. Two sets of unknowns? That's a very different proposition, especially with people you wouldn't trust to build an IKEA cabinet, let alone run a political one. 

[Loki]

Boris "You wouldn't trust him with your wife, why trust him with your country"

[David]

10 hours ago, Chris B said:

The chaos of the last year or two has really damaged that myth. But if you take a Johnson or Rees-Mogg, then the election story becomes more a maverick vs a maverick. 

No it doesn't, for the most part it becomes a lovable, eccentric character who loves Great Britain and champions the people and how we cope with adversity, quoting Churchill and all that shite, vs someone who's seen as hesitant to clamp down on anti-semitism because he supports Palestinian terrorists, a "Communist" and who supported the IRA.

Corbyn is only seen as a maverick by a relatively small percentage of the country. To most he's unelectable and someone not to be trusted, because that's the narrative of the mainstream media for the most part.

I'm fairly certain that if a general election was to be held next week we'd see plenty of optimistic posts on here about how Labour could do, which would swiftly be followed by dismay and anger when everyone realises that the majority of the country doesn't think like the people who post here.

Edited December 15, 2018 by David

[JNLister]

Lovely piece from Simple Politics explaining everything that's going on right now: https://mailchi.mp/simplepolitics/the-meaningful-vote-explained

[Chunk]

Today's the day then. Looking like a heavy defeat this evening.

[Lion_of_the_Midlands]

42 minutes ago, Chunk said:

Looking like a heavy defeat this evening.

For everyone. 

[Wideload90]

This is a fascinating period in British politics but it is one in which there will be clear losers. Losing a vote on Brexit and a no confidence vote in the govt. doesn't sound as though things are moving in the right direction.

Theresa May is like a shit you can't crimp.