UFC 230: Cormier vs Lewis

[METAL ON METAL]

It's only been 3 weeks since he last fought, I doubt he's much trimmer.

[ColinBollocks]

I didn't say he's Luke Rockhold, but he looks like he's dropped a few. Considering how out of shape he says he was after his last fight, I'm sure he could definitely drop a few pounds by eating better and, you know, doing some cardio. It's probably the hardest Lewis has trained in his career.

[Bus Surfer]

When the commentators emphazise that's he's now started stretching before his fights, makes you wonder what his camps consist of. 

Fair fucks to him making it this far. Unbelievable stuff. 

[wandshogun09]

6 hours ago, Silky Kisser said:

When the commentators emphazise that's he's now started stretching before his fights, makes you wonder what his camps consist of.

[wandshogun09]

Soz for double posting but...Countdown;

Should be worth a look. Has Derrick Lewis ever had the Countdown treatment before? 

[ColinBollocks]

Aye. In my triple post on the previous page. 😕

It's a good watch. Lewis and DC are just two really loveable characters.

[Egg Shen]

10 hours ago, wandshogun09 said:

Soz for double posting but...Countdown;

Should be worth a look. Has Derrick Lewis ever had the Countdown treatment before? 

did he get it for the Ngannou disaster?

[wandshogun09]

He must’ve done actually, it was co-main at UFC 226. I must’ve completely blocked everything about that fight out. 

[wandshogun09]

This is fucking tomorrow! As usually happens with me these days, I’ve neglected the buildup until now. Just haven’t had time to soak it all up. Going to try to squeeze some of it in tonight (behave) if I get chance. Just watching little bits and pieces now and stumbled upon this. 

Luke Thomas talks about (and to) Derrick Lewis; 

I love Lewis’ attitude. Like Luke says there, it’s so different to the stock answers everyone else gives. He’s in it to provide for his family and nothing more. He’s headlining MSG and fighting for the biggest prize in MMA, yet he’s so nonchalant about the whole thing. He’s almost certainly getting battered but I’d love to see him pull it off. It would be great to see him win the title yet be more bothered about getting back to the plate of ribs waiting for him backstage. 

As much as I’m a huge DC fan, I can’t deny that my support is leaning towards the Beast. 

[wandshogun09]

Didn’t want to triple post but since none of you are talking and this is just hours away, fuck it. 

I think I’ve caught up on most of the buildup bits and bobs now. Still got Embedded to watch but that’s about it. Just got done with the weigh in. The weigh ins never fail to get me hyped up. 

Cormier vs Lewis is a weird fight. Anytime these two would’ve been booked I’d have picked DC to win comfortably every time. The way it’s just been thrown together last minute kind of negates some of that for me though. Don’t get me wrong I’m still fully expecting DC to win. But these last minute fights have a way of fucking the narrative of what was supposed to happen right up the arse raw and dry. Look no further than Bisping knocking out Luke Rockhold on like a week’s notice to win the title. That was not meant to happen. In some ways this would be an even bigger upset than that because there’s more of a gulf in skills between DC and Lewis than there was between Rockhold and Bisping. But when a fighter has the punching power Derrick Lewis does, and he’s also a much bigger man, you never know. The way this card has gone, the chaos surrounding it plus the possibility of Cormier taking this lightly, you just never know. He looked very porky at the weigh in to me. He’s never looked great physically at heavyweight but I don’t know, he looked fatter than usual to me. I don’t think DC will overlook Lewis too much but there’s always the possibility that in the back of his mind there’s a bit of complacency creeping in here. Let’s face it, he wouldn’t have taken on a Stipe or Gustafsson on this kind of notice. There’s a reason he accepted Lewis and it’s because, to some degree, he sees it as an easier night’s work. He’s a professional and I don’t doubt he’s taking it seriously, but there’s got to be some element of complacency in there for him to even take this fight on short notice when he’s got everything to lose and little to gain other than the short term financial incentive. 

All that said, DC by submission. He’s smaller, he’s older, he doesn’t have quite the one shot KO power Lewis does. But he’s the way superior fighter here. Faster, more well rounded and has a monster grappling game which, combined with his MMA skills, has cut much bigger men down to size many a time in his career. He’s shown time and time again that he’s a fantastic fighter, he’s tough and, unless you’re Jon Jones, he finds a way to win. 

Weidman vs Jacare is a fight I’ve been wanting to see for about 5 years now. Really looking forward to this. Bit of a difficult one to call because they’ve both had their ups and downs and Weidman has been out of action for more than a year. But I think these two match up for a brilliant fight. On the ground I’d favour Jacare over almost anyone. The man’s a grappling monster. But Weidman’s no Kimbo himself. From everything I’ve seen, read and heard he’s legit on the mat himself. Throw ground and pound in the mix and it’s a very interesting ground battle here. On the feet it’s a bit of a 50/50 but I actually think I’d give Jacare the edge there as well. Neither are prime Ernesto Hoost on the feet but they’re both dangerous. I think Jacare has the slightly faster hands though. I think he might be quicker on the draw, he’s pretty accurate and he has power. 

I’m going Jacare by decision in a real good, competitive fight. Maybe a close one where we wish it was 5 rounds at the end. But I reckon Jacare comes through with the W. 

Branch vs Cannonier is another last minute fight where both men were in camp but training for different opponents. Branch was supposed to be fighting Jacare here which would’ve been a huge opportunity for him. If he’d won that it would’ve been the biggest scalp of his career by far. Circumstances cocked that up and now he’s fighting Jared Cannonier who’s decent enough but offers no real upward momentum for Branch if he wins. 

Branch by TKO. I think Branch is just the better fighter everywhere in this one. As long as he’s not down mentally for losing the Jacare opportunity, and he doesn’t come in too complacent or disinterested, I think he wins this one handily. Cannonier is tough and took some good guys the distance but I think Branch can and will stop him. 

Roberson vs Marshman is the darkhorse fight on the PPV for me. All the other main card fights have some kind of ‘storyline’ for lack of a better term. This one was just bumped up to the main show when the Diaz vs Poirier fight fell through. No fanfare, no hype. But it’s a real potential FOTN contender IMO. Neither man are making a run at a title anytime soon and Marshman has had a rough go of it so far in the UFC, but styles-wise I really like this matchup. And on a card full of top middleweight contenders and prospects, what better way for these guys to make a statement than to go out there and wreck the other man? You have to think they’re both coming in with that mentality. If they do it’s likely going to be a bit of a barnburner. 

Roberson by KO/TKO in a war is what I’m feeling. Marshman is durable and game as fuck but I think Roberson is the sharper of the two and gets to him at some point. 

Brunson vs Adesanya might just be the most intriguing fight on the entire card. Everyone is on Adesanya’s dick at the moment and touting him as the next big thing at 185. I get the excitement about him but people are going on like he’s just going to walk through the division. I still think there are questions that remain unanswered before we can start getting all silly. I saw Luke Thomas saying he thinks Adesanya is a “future UFC champion” the other day. He’s undeniably good but I’m not seeing him as the world beater most seem to be. I think some are looking at him and thinking unbeaten record - check, talks shit - check and then seeing his Kickboxing background and thinking he’s just going to destroy everyone. But watching his fights I’m not totally convinced just yet. Not saying he’s shite or anything. He’s mostly looked really good so far and has shown flashes of brilliance. But he’s also shown weaknesses that people seem to be overlooking. His grappling needs a ton of work. I’m sure he’s putting the graft in there and he’s not bad at defending takedowns but it’s not like he’s without flaws like any other fighter. Marvin Vettori gave him fits his fight before last for fuck’s sake. And his best win to date is a decision over Brad Tavares. Adesanya is good, he shows some promise, but I think people need to calm down a bit on the ‘future champ’ stuff. If he smokes Derek Brunson it’ll say something about him though. Brunson should provide a good barometer for where Adesanya stands because Brunson is a really good wrestler, powerful puncher and he’s mixed it with some of the top names in the division and done quite well for himself. Very interesting fight. 

Going with Brunson by decision. I actually kind of hope I’m wrong because Adesanya living up to the hype and going on some mad streak would be great for the division. But I’ve still got my doubts on him and Brunson is no joke and is strong in Adesanya’s weakest area of MMA. 

Full predictions then; 

Daniel Cormier - Submission 

Jacare Souza - Decision 

David Branch - KO/TKO 

Karl Roberson - KO/TKO 

Derek Brunson - Decision

Jordan Rinaldi - Decision

Sijara Eubanks - KO/TKO 

Julio Arce - Submission 

Lyman Good - KO/TKO 

Lando Vannata - KO/TKO 

Shane Burgos - Decision

Brian Kelleher - Decision 

Marcos Rogério De Lima - KO/TKO

[WeeAl]

It's Middleweights R' Us on the main card of this one. By the end of the night the MW division will have really gotten quite a shake up once we see who the winners and losers are. 

I'm expecting Weidman, Branch and Roberson to win their fights. I can't pick the Brunson/Adesanya winner though. That's a difficult fight to find a winner in. Brunson is a heavy hitters, who'll really give Adesanya a test in every department. He is, by far, Israel's toughest challenge to date. There are more interesting match ups in the future for Adesanya if he wins than there are for Brunson though, so I hope he picks up the W. 

I expect DC gets it done here. His will to win I think will tell the tale in the end. He's a grinder, and when it comes down to the nitty gritty, I think he'll be able to dig a bit deeper than The Black Beast. One big right hand though and it can change in an instant, which is what makes this one so interesting. 

[Egg Shen]

i think the Adesanya hype is justified. I just think people sense that he could be a breakout star and they are getting excited about it because of the way the guy carries himself. The guy just has that special sort of charisma that few fighters have, if he keeps winning the skys the limit. If Brunson doesn't decide to wrestle he's getting knocked out.

[jimufctna24]

12 hours ago, wandshogun09 said:

But these last minute fights have a way of fucking the narrative of what was supposed to happen right up the arse raw and dry. Look no further than Bisping knocking out Luke Rockhold on like a week’s notice to win the title. That was not meant to happen. In some ways this would be an even bigger upset than that because there’s more of a gulf in skills between DC and Lewis than there was between Rockhold and Bisping. But when a fighter has the punching power Derrick Lewis does, and he’s also a much bigger man, you never know.

The Sherdog preview said the same. It's a valid point. 

However, I think DC is more mature and focused than Rockhold. I think he will take Lewis seriously and leave few openings. DC has only been rocked by elite Light Heavies, such as Jones, Rumble and Gusty, and only 1 of them managed to put him away. Against strikers more of Lewis's calibre, Nelson, Mir, etc, they could barely lay a mitt on DC. I think DC gets the job done inside 2 rounds by GnP. 

You can all have a good laugh at me if I am wrong. 

[Carbomb]

All very true. But the entire reason we're having this discussion in the first place is because Lewis has demonstrated that he has the heart and wherewithal to win out of the blue when he's completely and utterly out-gunned, as he showed with Volkov. There's always a wild card element to heavyweights, but Lewis has shown that the percentage chance of that occurring might be slightly higher than most.

[Supremo]

Made up with the main event result. DC might be my favourite fighter ever.