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UFC 224: Nunes vs Pennington


wandshogun09

Who wins and how?   

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yeh, she gets a lot of shit online about the accent.

Dern looks pretty dejected here.

Just realised Junior Albini is on the show too, wonder if he's sorted out his shorts, the chubby fucker.

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Dern's standup looked dreadful in her last fight. She doesn't seem to have the wrestling skills to enable her to be in the best positions to use her BJJ. She really could have done with six months of a break to go back and work on some of these holes in her game and try and catch them up a bit with her ground game. Instead she is making an almost immediate turnaround. I'm picking Cooper for the win here. 

I haven't watched a single episode of embedded, or piece of hype for this show. Like many of yourselves, I try to catch some, if not all of the fights on every UFC show, if I can manage it. I'll certainly watch UFC 224, and there is some good stuff to be found there, but iI have an FS1 level interest in the card, not a PPV level of excitement. For instance, the recent card in New Jersey had more of an appeal to me than this PPV. That's not to say that it's the same for everyone, we all can be interested in or captivated by different fighters, or certain stylistic matchups. 

224 is about Jacare Vs Gastelum, Kelleher Vs Lineker and to see if there is anything left in the tank for either Machida or Belfort. Nunes, despite the great wins that she has, for whatever reason, doesn't show up on the Richter scale at all. Whatever it is, there's a disconnect there with the wider public

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yeh, been watching/reading some stuff this afternoon and Dern admits she's only took this fight because she wanted to fight in Rio, it's her 4th fight in 8 months and she's bounced between 125 and 115 in that time, to see her struggle with the weight now probably means she's burnt out. Farm on Cooper, she's a 2/1 underdog with ladbrokes.

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I don't know. She might well be burnt out and overtrained but it's early in her career and already she's got form for missing weight. This is the third time she's came in heavy on the scales, and it's only her 7th fight. That's an awful ratio. I just think she's a bit lazy. 

I'm fancying a Cooper upset as well but I wouldn't be confident in that pick. You've got to remember that Cooper has lost 50% of her fights and all her losses were by submission. To lesser grapplers, on paper, than Dern. There's a reason they've made this fight after she looked poor last time. As much as we're saying 'Dern's striking looks crap, Cooper for the upset'. The other side of the coin is that we know Cooper is very submittable, and she's facing a world class ADCC champion.

It's a pick 'em. And I think it all hinges on Cooper's ability to stop the takedown. Dern's wrestling isn't the best but it's not like Cooper is top level either. More than anything I just hope it's a good fight. Dern vs Yoder was such a lacklustre debut. 

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Could happen. But hard to smash her in the second if she's tapping in the first. I just think it's one of those tossup fights where whoever fucks up first loses. If Dern gets her down early, I don't have confidence in Cooper surviving. But if Cooper tags her or takes her into deep water, I could easily see her winning. 

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This is tonight then. 

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Nunes vs Pennington should be lively if nothing else. Pennington doesn't have the type of style where she'll play it safe, and unfortunately for her, I think she lacks the overall skills to match Nunes in any area. She's scrappy and durable and she's always game but there's not really an area where I'd say she's better than Nunes. 

Nunes by KO/TKO for me. It's the obvious prediction but it's obvious for good reason. If Pennington somehow wins this it'd be a massive upset. She might be tough enough to actually go the distance but if she does it'll probably be a drawn out, one-sided and sadistic beating. I think Nunes gets her out of there though. 

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Jacare vs Gastelum is a tricky one for me. Probably the toughest call on the card. Both are mega dangerous and can end a fight in the blink of an eye. A mistake from either could be magnified and wind up spelling the end. They're just both that lethal. If I had to choose though I'm fancying Jacare to win this one. Gastelum's the younger, fresher fighter but Jacare is in that spot in his career now where he's both experienced but still in top form. He's at his peak. He's bigger than Gastelum and I just think he has more options in the fight, more ways to win. A standup fight is about 50/50 to me, a ground fight is all Jacare. So Jacare can win this fight anywhere whereas I think it's safe to say Gastelum has to win this fight with striking. Still wouldn't be shocked if Gastelum catches him, but I think Jacare is too much of an all-round threat and that combined with his size and experience advantages, I like a home win for the Brazilian. 

Jacare by submission. Can see him maybe hurting Gastelum on the feet and pouncing on a submission. 

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We've discussed Dern vs Cooper a fair bit already. Bit of a coin flip fight, I reckon. Cooper has been submitted in all 3 of her losses, by grapplers who aren't as skilled as Dern. So there's a clear blueprint there. The flipside is that Dern looks sloppy in the standup and Cooper might catch her. Could easily see it going either way. Something is making me think Cooper hands Dern her first defeat here but fuck knows? Neither have looked overly impressive to me. Tossup. Cooper refused the handshake at the weigh in as well, presumably to do with Dern missing weight. 

Fuck it, Cooper by KO/TKO. If Dern wins I won't be surprised given Cooper's apparent problem with grapplers. But if Dern doesn't lose here, I feel like it's coming soon. Just really not convinced by her so far. 

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Lineker vs Kelleher has a really good chance of stealing the show, IMO. Lineker is always a safe bet to have one of the best fights on any card he's on. Just stupidly fun to watch. If he was a bit bigger, Lineker vs Justin Gaethje would be all kinds of amazing. This is a fairly difficult one to call as well actually, mostly because I just haven't seen enough of Kelleher. What I have seen has been impressive though. He quickly submitted Iuri Alcantara, who's a black-belt, and decisioned Renan Barao and had him in trouble at the end. He seems pretty well rounded and guys like that can give Lineker problems because, awesome as he is to watch, he's very one dimensional. But Lineker has beat some good fighters with that one dimension and I'm not sure Kelleher won't get dragged into a brawl as he seems to enjoy a bit of a ruck himself. 

I'll go Lineker on points. 

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There's only really two ways I can see Belfort vs Machida playing out - a first round KO or a 15 minute snoozer. And either way I think Machida gets the better of it. Belfort still carries that threat early but he just looks so haggard and disinterested these days. And even that early storm, it seems less than it was in years gone by. It used to be 'if you can get past round 2, Vitor starts to fade'. Now it's 'just survive the opening 3 minutes and Vitor's toast'. If he doesn't catch Lyoto in his opening few volleys I see Machida running away with it. Maybe literally running away as well. Even in their primes I think I might've favoured Machida. On paper, you'd think Belfort's aggression would be tailor made for Machida's counter attacking style. 

I'll have Machida by spectacular KO/TKO in the first round. Just got a feeling it's going to be the final nail in Vitor's career and I can see the crowd being very subdued at the end of this one. 

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Cooper/Dern feels like the 'people main event' here, most of the interesting stuff in the build has been focussed on that and im looking forward to it.

gotta fancy Machida against Belfort too, simply a case of feeling he has the more left in the tank of the two.

A day of hype stuff yesterday did wonders for me, I'm excited.

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This was a really entertaining card, pretty much from start to finish. 

Nunes vs Pennington was hard to watch though. I had a feeling Pennington would be tough enough to last a bit in there and unfortunately for her, she did just that. Clearly out of her depth and too durable for her own good. 

The big story coming out of the fight was Pennington's corner sending her back out for the 5th round. Even after she'd gone back to them after the 4th and saying "I'm done". She clearly had nothing left at that point. I actually had her winning the second round but aside from that she'd been getting beat down. Her leg got fucked up in the 1st round from Nunes' kicks, then her nose got smashed in the 4th, she was exhausted and physically battered. She had nothing after the 4th. Tells her cornerman she's done and he just goes "No, no, no, no. Change your mindset. We'll recover later" and sends her back out in a fight she can't win. I was arguing this with my brother earlier and he was saying 'yeah but if Pennington had somehow come out and scored a 5th round KO, that cornerman would be being called a genius today'. I get what he means but he'd still be a cunt for sending her back out even if she'd pulled off the late upset. If a fighter is telling you they're done, you have to respect their wishes. They're the one in there and they know better than anyone if they can't go on. You can't just send them out based on hoping for a Hail Mary comeback. 

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That's what he sent her back out for. 

His decision has rightly received pretty much unanimous backlash from all corners of the sport, from fighters to media to fans. 

Here's just a few examples;

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They really need to make that Nunes vs Cyborg fight now. There's really nothing for either of them in their respective divisions for the time being. 

Jacare vs Gastelum was my FOTN, edging Lineker-Kelleher for me. Loved it. Gastelum did well to survive the first round with Jacare getting mount and the submission attempts. And Jacare did well getting through the second after being dropped and badly hurt. It was pretty clear cut that they were a round apiece going into the third, so it all came down to that last round. And it was really close. I had Gastelum just shading the third but I might've had the first 10-8 for Jacare so either 29-28 Gastelum or a draw for me. But I wouldn't argue against someone having Jacare winning the third and the fight either. Razor close. The kind of fight that needed 5 rounds. 

The coin flip Dern vs Cooper fight went as the UFC would want with Dern getting the quick sub. This was how Dern needed to look in her debut. A showcase performance. But she's put a cloud over the whole thing by missing weight. That can't keep happening. It's not even like she barely missed weight. She came in 7lbs over, for fuck's sake. Haven't watched the presser yet but saw something earlier that she's blaming her diet. Honest but it's no excuse. Your diet is one of the few things you can control in camp. Looking at her, she certainly doesn't look like she should have too much trouble making 115 either. She's not at all skinny or ripped. It seems she just lacks the dedication to make weight. Which, if you can't or won't make 115, fine. There's a division called flyweight at 125lbs, which is pretty much what she came in at anyway. Felt a bit bad for Cooper because at 3-4 now, she might be a goner even though it was a loss to someone who missed weight badly. I'd like to see her get one more chance given the circumstances. 

Lineker vs Kelleher was bags of fun. Did exactly what it advertised. There's just a constant sense of danger when Lineker's fighting. And I thought this was his best showing in a while. Kelleher had a good old bash at it. He landed one left hook early on that seemed to hurt Lineker and Lineker has a chin on him so it must've been a good shot. But Lineker only seemed to up the aggression after that. It felt like Kelleher was always in it and Lineker was seemingly slowing down in the third and then he just went nuts with the flurry and that big left hook landed. No getting up from that. Great fight. 

Machida vs Belfort went about how everyone predicted. People were either saying it'd be a staring contest or a Machida KO. Well we got both. First round was abysmal. Just a nothing happening round and an awful way to start a PPV.

Thankfully they woke up in the second round though. Then Vitor went to sleep. That front kick finish was brutal. Looked worse than Anderson's vs Vitor and Machida's vs Randy to me. This was as clean a KO as it gets. Belfort went down like he'd been shot in the face and the way Machida just stopped and bowed, the whole thing just felt surreal. Like a scene in a movie or something. Got to be knockout of the year so far. 

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The fight couldn't have ended worse for him but Vitor leaving his gloves in the cage with the Brazilian fans singing to him seemed like as good a sendoff as he could've wished for at this stage. Hopefully he sticks to it. 

Prelims were a lot of fun. Loads of finishes. 

Cezar Ferreira actually looked like the beast he always had the potential to be but rarely performs like. Enjoyed him showing some emotion post-fight and calling out Paulo Costa. I'm not sure that'd be good for Ferreira's health though. 

Alexey Oleynik again by Ezekiel choke! Fuck me. I've grown to really like Oleynik and I love that he actually has a 'finishing move'. Just looked at his record and he's got 11 finishes via Ezekiel on his record now. Fucking 11! 

Completely overlooked the Davi Ramos vs Nick Hein fight when previewing this card. And it's purely down to Hein boring me senseless every time I've seen him previously. This was the best fight I've seen out of him and he goes and gets himself submitted in a round. This Ramos guy looks good, to be fair. 

And Zaleski Dos Santos busting out the wheel kick finish was a cool way to start the FS1 prelims. 

Didn't see the Fight Pass bit but heard that the Emeev vs Mina fight I'd been plugging throughout this thread turned out to be a bit of a dud, which is a shame as it sounded good on paper. Still, can't win 'em all. And 4 first round finishes on the FS1 portion is a pretty fucking sweet way to kick off a show. Especially given the criticisms this show was getting going in. 

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I was flicking between all sorts last night. I watched the Boxing, bits of Bellator, and a few fights on this card. 

The Machida KO was just stunning. That was the result I wanted. Machida is not a saint, but there is less of cloud looming over him than what there is with Belfort. I also consider Machida to be the better fighter out of the two overall (albeit by a small margin). 

I also really enjoyed Kelvin vs Jacare. Both fighters are a bit underrated, in that they don't get the attention that their talent deserves. They fight in a division that is full of very good fighters, and neither have had it easy throughout their careers. As for the fight itself, I would have been fine with either winning. You could make a case for either getting the nod, or even a draw (as Wand mentioned). 

 

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The main event was proper grim. Completely outgunned, Pennington was smart enough (and battered enough) to know it was dangerous to continue. Her corner deserve every bit of criticism that has come their way. "Warrior spirit" and all that can do one when you see how these things can play out. Anyway, I agree with wand, the only compelling fight for Nunes is a Cyborg fight.

Well, I just hope Vitor gets back on the TRT now. It's his missus I feel sorry for, waking up and there beside her is Baron Corbin. The kick is indeed everything everyone is praising it as, brutal and perfect.

Not a clue who I had winning the Kelvin v Jacare match. So even and great that I hope we see it agains really soon.

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Jacare Vs Gastelum was a great fight. It could have been a win for either or a draw and I would have had no complaints either way. I think Gastelum probably deserves the next title shot following Whittaker Vs Romero. I heard Meltzer mentioning Weidman, but he's 1-4 in his last 4, plus one of those losses is a brutal KO to Romero. Gastelum would be a fresh challenge for either of the two possible winners, so I would go with him.

Dern got the win in the end and looked much better here than she did in her UFC debut. She certainly throws with power, but with a glaring lack of technique. Undoubtedly a beast on the ground once it goes there though. Despite that, she needs to move to 125. She certainly can make 115 judging by her body type, but whatever it is she struggles to get there, so make the move to 125. It's kind of disappointing the amount of times a fighter has missed weight this year but won the fight. I think it's around 100% in favour of the people that have missed weight this year in the UFC? Fair play to those taking fights with people who have missed weight, based on the success rate of it this year anyway, it's a bit of a gamble. 

Machida put what I hope turns out to be the final nail in Belfort's UFC career. A beautiful kick with a nice finish at the end with the bow upon Vitor landing like a tree. If Vitor wants to fight again then I hope it's in One, KSW, Rizin or someplace not in the US, as clearly he needs some assistance if he is to continue to compete. It's good to see Machida get the win as well to put two wins together on the bounce. I wouldn't be against Bisping Vs Machida, though I don't know if I'd back it to happen. Thank God for the finish too, as that first round was full as dishwater. 

Lineker lived up to his moniker. What a beautiful, brutal, left hook. 

Nunes really gave Pennington a beating. Raquel's corner should take a long, hard look at themselves after that. Nunes Vs Cyborg is all that's out there for either of them at the minute. September/October could make sense for that fight. 

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As the Machida fight was starting I wondered whether we'd see a 'FRONT KICK TO THA FACE!' /Rogan as Machida has form and Vitor got sparked out by one before. Holy shit. I should have put a bet down. 

Real fun show which is the norm for these events that have little fan fair before hand. Nunes just isn't catching on with the casual fans. The cyborg fight is the only way to go. 

Glad Kelvin got the win. As much as I like Jac the snap, he's on the decline in my eyes so good to see Kelvin push on up the ladder. 

Prelims were fun too. An easy watch. 

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I always root for Yoel anyway but I'm REALLY hoping for a Romero win at 225, setting up Romero vs Gastelum for the title. How great would that be? 

Kind of hoping they set up Jacare vs Weidman as well. Neither can really afford a loss but I just want to see that fight. 

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