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UFC on FOX: Poirier vs Gaethje - Apr 14


wandshogun09

Who wins and how?   

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Delighted Poirier won. Gaethje’s style doesn’t do a lot for me (in terms of getting me behind him, obviously. It’s fun to watch), then acting the cunt after the eye pokes sealed it. Popped when Herb stopped it.

I’ve seen people complain that it was an early stoppage but fuck that. Just because he wouldn’t switch off, doesn’t mean he wasn’t in an insane amount of trouble and danger. Gaethje was punched 121 times in the head in just the first 2 rounds. Fucking hell.

Still think Poirier is nowhere near a title shot, for whatever reason. Poor bloke.

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Only watched the main card but thought this was a great event. All the fights delivered & the ME was an absolutel cracker. Felt a little bad for Condit as I'm a fan but I can't moan too much. I took my measly National 'winnings' & put them into a 4 fight prediction which came in. Happy Sunday.

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4 hours ago, d-d-d-dAz said:

Still think Poirier is nowhere near a title shot, for whatever reason. Poor bloke.

Definitely, he just doesn’t have those names on his record to warrent him one. Anytime I think of Poirier I think of Michael Johnson knocking him out or Conor blasted him inside 2 minutes. 

Id possibly have him take on Eddie Alvarez next? Their last fight ended in a no contest after Alvarez kneed him in the end whilst he was down.

Either that or the winner of Barboza/Lee coming up. 

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Poirier vs Gaethje!!! Jesus fucking Christ. That was absolute insanity. You just knew the second this fight was announced that it was going to look something like that. Loved every second of it. Best fight since...well, Gaethje vs Alvarez in December for me. Justin Gaethje is easily one of the pound-for-pound most exciting fighters I've ever seen. He was one of only two fighters (along with Marlon Moraes) who used to guarantee me tuning in to WSOF shows years ago. He was the same then as he is now. Now 3 fights into his UFC career and he's 3 for 3 for genuine FOTY candidates. The comparison gets thrown about but if there's an Arturo Gatti of MMA, it's Justin Gaethje. Like Gatti, his style will only work to a certain level, but fuck me it's incredible to watch. And Poirier is an ironman. Like Jim, I thought he was heading for getting stopped pretty much throughout the whole of the second and third rounds. The way he was reacting to the leg kicks and him starting to back up a bit, plus his vision possibly being fucked from the eye pokes. It just felt like Gaethje was breaking him. Peahead is granite though. To come out in the 4th round of a fight like that and go for broke after all that damage he took, it says a lot about Poirier. Amazing fight. I know we're only a third of the way through 2018 but that's my FOTY so far, easy. If there's a better one to come in the next 8 months then I can't wait to see it. 

12 hours ago, d-d-d-dAz said:

Still think Poirier is nowhere near a title shot, for whatever reason. Poor bloke.

Sadly I think you're right. I liked his callout last night, and after a fight like that it was even better. But I can't see that title shot coming for him anytime soon. And it's not even really anything to do with him or what he has or hasn't done. It's just the timing. Khabib's the champ now and the fights to make, if they're available, are with Ferguson and McGregor. Poirier is just a victim of bad timing. I suppose if McGregor keeps dragging his feet on committing to a comeback and Ferguson isn't ready to go after his injury, it's possible Poirier sneaks in the back door and nabs a shot. I mean, beyond Ferguson and McGregor I think he can make the best case as Edson Barboza just lost to Khabib and Kevin Lee just lost to Fergie. And Poirier himself is coming off a FOTY stoppage over Gaethje, he beat Pettis in another great fight before that, was arguably winning the Alvarez fight in another great fight before that and beat Jim Miller in yet another really good fight before that. He's really been on fire since that loss to Michael Johnson. If Ferguson and McGregor aren't ready by the time Khabib next wants in the cage, I can't see why Poirier wouldn't get a crack. He's done everything people say they want contenders to do. He's won, he's had 4 great fights in a row and he's been vocal in calling out the champ. Can't ask for more than that. But yeah, timing is a bitch and there's just bigger fights to make for Khabib at the moment. 

Oliveira vs Condit was good. Gutted Condit lost and the way it happened. Huge win for Oliveira, biggest of his career by far. And he joins the ever increasing list of guys who have came in on short notice and sprung the upset. Seriously, that happens a lot, doesn't it? 

The Adesanya hype might've cooled off considerably after last night. I actually though Vettori should have nicked that decision. I only gave Adesanya the second round and I'm admittedly usually more inclined to be a bit biased towards striking and damage over grappling and control. Just felt like Vettori did more of what he wanted and for longer. Adesanya was fortunate to get the nod, and I think he realised that. I like him but it's clear he's really lacking on the ground. There are things he does well in takedown defence but once it does hit the ground he looks lost. 

Waterson vs Casey was excellent. Real good fight. This would've been my FOTN but Poirier vs Gaethje left it in the dust. This was really close and I wouldn't argue someone giving it to Casey for her submission attempts off her back. But overall I felt like Waterson edged. Hopefully she'll go back to 105 when they bring the atomweight division in. That's where she's more suited IMO, she's small for strawweight. The fact she was able to muscle around and outwrestle a much bigger girl like Casey is a good sign for when she goes back down to 105, she'll be a little tank back at that weight. 

Prelims were good too. Shoeface looked outstanding again. That's 5 wins on the spin now. He's been racking up wins to very little fanfare but I like him. I think he's earned a test against one of the Top 10 next. Glad to see Muslim Salikhov get to show off his striking. Rainey fought pretty well too but once Salikhov found his timing he just wiped him out. Enjoyed Moraga vs Reis a lot as well. I was rooting for Moraga but was surprised when he got the decision. I definitely had Reis winning. 

Really, really good show. Only the Tavares vs Jotko fight bored me but even that was kind of redeemed by the finish. 

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DC touched on it during the fight, but the pace both men fight at is insane. If you were to describe Dana White's favourite sort of fight then it's this. Fair play to both men, I was winded after the 5th handful of dry roasted, myself. I thought Herb Dean was absolutely spot on with his stoppage - he gave Gaethje more of a chance to get back in it because he's Gaethje, but Herb stopped it getting uncomfortable because, unconscious or not, the body clearly wasn't having it.

Cowboy deserves huge credit for how he handled Condit. He had his game plan and Condit struggled with it.

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Really fun card and a hell of a main event! You knew from it being announced that this fight was never going to fail to deliver.

DC continues to annoy me on commentary with his man-child over-enthusiasm of everything that makes Rogan look tame. When Oliveira first got hold of the choke, DC's shouting of "IT'S SUNK IN! ITS OVER!!!!!" was so fucking amateur. It was refreshing to hear Cruz adamantly tell him it wasn't all in yet and letting him know when it was.

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I'd rather hear someone being enthusiastic and getting shit wrong than being right but having all the enthusiasm of a lawn bowls game. I enjoy DC and can't stand Cruz. Cruz is extremely intelligent and can break things down wonderfully, but he couldn't sound more bored/disinterested if he tried. Makes Jon Anik sound dynamic in comparison (although to be fair, Anik has come a long way from when he started).

Only caught the last 3 fights but enjoyed them. I like Adesanya but that grappling needs serious work if he wants to be a top contender at 185. Imagine how badly Romero would maul him?

Sad to see Condit go out like that to a last minute replacement. Cowboy Oliveira is no joke, but all the same, it seems like the Natural Born Killer doesn't have a lot left in the tank. Mad to think that he came close to beating GSP 5 years ago. I think the Lawler fight really did a number on him, it was a great war but he clearly hasn't been the same since.

And that main event... fuck. Exactly how I would picture the perfect Poirier vs. Gaethje fight going down. Probably my favourite fight so far this year. I don't know if it's because I haven't been as ardent a UFC fan this year, but we haven't had a whole lot of great fights in this first third of the year, have we? (There's probably an amazing prelim that I missed somewhere)

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Cruz fucked up on the Cowboy submission. "No he doesn't, no he doesn't"..."Oh it's over, sorry"....Or something to that effect in my head. Hahaha. 

Poirier vs Alvarez next, it has to be.  I feel like Ferguson will be left out in the cold for a while.

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I only caught the main card and what a fun main card it was. Waterson Vs Casey was a really entertaining fight, that I felt was very close. Either woman could have won it 29-28. I probably would have given it to Casey, but I'm happy Waterson got the nod. 

Adesanya Vs Vettori was a clear 29-28 for Adesanya for me. Enjoyable first two rounds but the third was a nothing round, as Vettori seemed like he thought he won one of the first two, and didn't need to do anymore in the third than what he was doing. Keep Adesanya active this year with fighters around this level in order to give him time to work on his grappling, as if he was in there with anyone any better than Vettori on Saturday night, they would have taken him down early doors and that would have been the routine for the three rounds. Fantastic striking, with a ground game that is well below the required level of a top 15 MW. 

I thought both Condit and Cowboy Oliveira both looked good in their fight and this was a really good, back and forth grappling battle. Either man could have won it at points, and credit to Oliveira for getting the W here. This was a big win for him. 

What a war of a main event. An absolute blood and guts battle of two men who are as hard as nails and always put on a hell of a show. Gaethje was doing serious damage with the leg kicks throughout the fight, however, and I don't know if I'm alone on this or not, I wouldn't have given him a single round. I had him down 30-26 going into the 4th. For all the leg kicks he was doing and the effect it was taking on Poirier, along with those eye pokes, he had a clear path to victory through accumulative damage, but it would rely on him winning by KO, not points. For every leg kicks, he was eating 3-4 clear shots to the head, and routinely, every round, absorbed multiple flurries of 5 or more shots to the head. You can't take that for 5 full rounds and win a decision, or avoid being knocked out. He needed those leg kicks to completely debilitate Poirier to the point Dustin couldn't get off of the cage, similar to Lawler against RDA, and then he would have had his window. Poirier was just able to absorb more than Gaethje could land. This was a hell of a great fight, and leading contender for fight of the year so far, but a bit of a break for Gaethje could be needed here. As for Poirier calling out Khabib. It was the right call out to make, and it could happen, but he would need to be very fortuitous for the chips to land the right way. He would need Khabib to want to fight before Ferguson's knee is healed, before McGregor gets his shit together, he'd need Holloway Vs Ortega to be booked to take that option off of the table, and even then, Eddie Alvarez is still in the picture. If Poirier doesn't get lucky with all of that, I'd have him fight Ferguson or Alvarez next, for the "number one contender" title. 

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I'm not so sure Poirier is too far away, especially with the division in the state it's in at the moment.

There's basically Poirier, Kevin Lee (if he can beat Barboza), and Eddie Alvarez in the mix now. With Conor if he can get his shit together.

If Lee wins, then it's got to be either Alvarez or him to face Poirier next, and I honestly think both of those fights are winnable for Poirier.

The thing is, we don't know what the fallout from this McGregor situation is going to be, from both a legal and commission standpoint. There's every chance he could be gone for a year if the NYSAC decide to act, and with some of the comments coming from them I wouldn't be surprised if they do.

If that happens then there's basically no challengers for the title. Why not throw Poirier in at that point? 

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How good a fighter would Gaethje be if someone taught him to move his head a bit!

I understand his style and coming forward is one thing but there are large periods of his fights where he just stands still in front of his opponent and gets hit with 4 and 5 punch combos. It's stupid 

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6 hours ago, Chunk said:

How good a fighter would Gaethje be if someone taught him to move his head a bit!

I understand his style and coming forward is one thing but there are large periods of his fights where he just stands still in front of his opponent and gets hit with 4 and 5 punch combos. It's stupid 

Even if he did move his head, his striking is extremely rudimentary. That kind of approach can work at the lower levels, but when you're operating at the top end of the game you're going to come unstuck, which is what's happened to him.

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3 hours ago, David said:

Even if he did move his head, his striking is extremely rudimentary. That kind of approach can work at the lower levels, but when you're operating at the top end of the game you're going to come unstuck, which is what's happened to him.

Yeah, I agree. I still think his technique gets him further if he moves a bit though. If nothing else, some form of head movement would allow him the chance to wing a few more wild punches in the hope that one connects.

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Aside from the head movement, I wish he'd just shoot for a takedown. He has above decent wrestling credentials by all accounts, but we never see it. 

Getting way ahead of myself here, but a Khabib/Gaethje fight sounds mouthwatering on paper. But unless he changes something up, he's never gonna get there. 

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The problem with guys who fight like he does though, is that their chin can hold up for a while, but eventually you pay the price for fighting that style. 

You see it with virtually all fighters who pride themselves on taking a shot and being able to walk through it. Wanderlei Silva was a wrecking ball, then he gets caught hard by both Cro Cop and Hendo within the space of five months. Two KO's, and his chin was never the same really.

Chuck Liddell is another. He was taking fools out left, right & centre. Get's TKO'd by Rampage and from that point forward his chin isn't the same. He went from KO'ing people to getting rocked by Keith Jardine, of all people.

Are we seeing the same thing happening to Justin Gaethje? I dunno, but it wouldn't surprise me. That's twice now he's been knocked silly, with the latest by a former featherweight.

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