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UFC on FOX: Poirier vs Gaethje - Apr 14


wandshogun09

Who wins and how?   

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9 hours ago, OzExile said:

Waterson on the prelims? 

Why not? I love Waterson, huge fan of her, but she's coming off two losses on the bounce and hasn't won since the Paige VanZant fight nearly 18 months ago. She's still on the televised bit. It's ZM Punk being stuck in the Fight Pass dark match spot that baffles me.

Edit - and to be fair, the bout order in the opening post might've changed now. That was the bout order I saw knocking around at the time I did the post. It's probably been shuffled a few times since so maybe she's been promoted to the main card anyway. 

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On 05/04/2018 at 11:53 AM, David said:

The voting is currently 50/50 in the main event. Anyone think that Poirier is gonna be able to "out-finesse" Gaethje? I've got peahead winning a late stoppage or a rather lopsided decision.

I see it exactly the same way. I think Gaethje will take the early rounds with his bulldozer approach, yet Poirier will stay the course and finish him late on, in a barn burner of a fight. 

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Yeah, I think Poirier's experience will turn out to be too much for him. Gaethje's style has already been a bit exposed at the elite level, exciting though it is.

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I'm leaning towards the Pea as well but you never know with Poirier. As much as he's the more technical of the two and has more ways to win on paper, he also likes a ruck and has historically easily been dragged into one. It wasn't that long ago he was knocked out by Michael Johnson who's a good fighter but one I'd pick Poirier to beat more often than not.

If he sticks to a gameplan for this and goes for technique and patience over trying to just destroy Gaethje, I think he wins. But I have a feeling once he gets cracked he'll revert to his usual attacking style and then it's anyone's. Should be a brilliant fight. 

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He must know that if he wins this fight in decent fashion he's not far away from a title shot against whoever they shove out to compete for the strap tomorrow night. T-Ferg isn't getting another crack any time soon, and McG ain't around either.

He'll be one of a small group of legit contenders around for the next few months or so.

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Yeah, you have to think if he wins this then him and Eddie Alvarez are frontrunners for the title. I could see either of them slotted in on an upcoming card against Khabib to crown a new champ if Khabib doesn't end up fighting tomorrow night. 

Just depends with Poirier. I hear what you're saying and I'm favouring him slightly for this one, but he doesn't exactly have a track record for playing it safe and sooner or later I see this fight descending into a blood and guts scrap. He might still win a fight like that but of course the risk of losing is higher. 

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4 minutes ago, wandshogun09 said:

Yeah, you have to think if he wins this then him and Eddie Alvarez are frontrunners for the title. I could see either of them slotted in on an upcoming card against Khabib to crown a new champ if Khabib doesn't end up fighting tomorrow night. 

Just depends with Poirier. I hear what you're saying and I'm favouring him slightly for this one, but he doesn't exactly have a track record for playing it safe and sooner or later I see this fight descending into a blood and guts scrap. He might still win a fight like that but of course the risk of losing is higher. 

Oh yeah, absolutely. There's every chance he gets clipped by Gaethje and you see his knees buckle before it all goes tits up. That wouldn't be surprising at all.

But even then, who wouldn't want to see Gaethje take on Kahbib? We all know how it probably goes, but if anyone is mental enough to actually take him out it's Gaethje.

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That's the beauty of the lightweight division and why we haven't really had a sustained run of one guy on top. Because there are so many good fighters who you can see taking each other out on a given day. 

Khabib's probably got the best shot at being 'the guy' at 155 for a lengthy spell IF he can keep making the weight but you just never know in that division.

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This card took a big hit on injuries for me. Still really like it but we lost 3 almost sure-fire incredible fights. 

Carlos Condit vs Matt Brown 

Abdul Razak Alhassan vs Muslim Salikhov 

Lando Vannata vs Gilbert Burns

All gone :( especially gutted that Lando is off the card. Obviously, we know Alex Oliveira stepped in to fight Condit in the co-main. 

Ex Bellator fighter Ricky Rainey faces Muslim Salikhov now. 

And some fucker named Dan Moret replaces Groovy Lando against Gilbert Burns now. 

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On 06/04/2018 at 7:16 PM, David said:

 

But even then, who wouldn't want to see Gaethje take on Kahbib?

even with an impressive win Gaethje is probably a couple more away from that fight, that said i would love to see it.

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Can't wait for this tonight. I'd kind of forgotten about it all week but caught the weigh in face offs last night and I'm well excited about it now. Not that anything special even happened at the weigh in, just the realisation that a fight like Poirier vs Gaethje is happening in a matter of hours, it's going to a brilliant fight. There's some fights that look good on paper but you can see a path the fight could take that might make it lacklustre. With Poirier vs Gaethje though, it's one of those fights where the ingredients for a dull fight just aren't there. Even if they try to go the careful/cautious route it should at the very least be good. Most likely it escalates way beyond that though. No way we get 5 rounds of caution. At some point, someone's getting a dig that wakes them up and we get berserker mode then. Can't wait. 

Beyond that, we haven't talked about it much but Condit vs Oliveira is a potential show stealer in its own right. I was gutted when Matt Brown got injured because I was really looking forward to him vs Condit. But as replacements go, they could've done a lot worse than Cowboy Oliveira. Oliveira's got form for having wild fights and I think this is the kind of fight that will be right up Condit's street. Even a Condit with an eye on retirement, these are the type of fights that I think he'll get up for or at least look more like the Condit we know. I think we'll see a different Condit here than we got against Magny. 

Excited to see Israel Adesanya back in action as well. Love his striking style and his overall swagger. Be interesting to see how far he can go. 

There's a lot to like on the rest of the card too. Usually always enjoy Michelle Waterson's fights. This Muslim Salikhov bloke has a ridiculous amount of striking and kickboxing experience as well. Reis vs Moraga is a good overlooked flyweight fight. There's something about the Boetsch vs Shoeface styles clash that I really like as well. And Yushin Okami is back out, getting another shot back at 170 after taking that OSP fight at 205 on short notice last year. Hope he gets back to winning ways. 

Real good show this looks. Even with all the pullouts. 

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1 hour ago, Egg Shen said:

even with an impressive win Gaethje is probably a couple more away from that fight, that said i would love to see it.

Yeah, he probably never gets the fight, but it would be fun to see! He'd certainly press Khabib like no one else has!

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I think it can be said that the main event lived up to the hype. That was one of hell of a fight. I wanted to Gaethje to win. I was convinced he was going to win as round 2 drew to a close. Credit to Poirier for rallying in the 4th. I thought he was on the verge of being stopped quite a while before that. As for Gaethje, his career is at a crossroads. His approach of "go out and break your opponent" makes for some extraordinary fights. The romantic in me doesn't want him to change. Obviously, there is a rationale behind Gaethje and Wittman's approach, with the lack of weight that Gaethje cuts they feel he can come on strong as the fight goes on. But it didn't pay off tonight and it isn't an approach that fosters a long career. 

Condit didn't look that bad. I was willing him on to finish that RNC at the end of the first round. If he had, it would have been one of the feel-good results of the year. That up-kick in the 2nd round was nasty though. The opener between Waterson and Casey was a lot of fun as well. 

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