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UFC 218: Holloway vs Aldo 2


wandshogun09

Who wins and how?   

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Skip to around 5:30...

Ngannou calmly whispering to Overeem "You go to sleep Saturday night. You will sleep" is chilling. Overeem's been around the block long enough that it won't do much for him but it certainly fucking scared me. 

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I've got a bad feeling Reem's going to spoil the party :( 

Anyway, watched the Weigh Ins, here's my last minute predictions; 

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As gutted as I still am that Frankie Edgar dropped out, I'm still very much looking forward to Holloway vs Aldo 2. I think too often people see a rematch booked and automatically think it'll go the same way as the first fight. In this case though, I can't see past another Holloway win. Not only has Aldo had less than a full camp to train for this, I just can't really see him having had enough time to make enough adjustments since the first fight. What could he really have changed between June and December? Saying that, for someone as injury prone as Aldo, maybe a shorter condensed camp is a good thing. Less wear and tear on his body and less time to pick up an injury. And his last training camp was for Holloway anyway so it's not like he's going in with someone he's unfamiliar with. Aldo has spent pretty much the whole of 2017 either training for or fighting Max Holloway. There's something about the way Aldo's carrying himself this time that I like as well. Maybe it's the shorter camp. He seems in a good place and he just looks fresher to me. Looking back at him going into the first fight in June he looked well haggard. I don't know. I just think it's Holloway's time. I can see Aldo doing better this time, especially if he can kick more now, but ultimately I see the same end result. 

Max Holloway by TKO in the championship rounds. 

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So yeah, I hope Overeem vs Ngannou delivers the fireworks that we've been advertised. But like I said above, I've got a feeling The Reem's going to fuck everything up. Ngannou is dangerous as fuck and if he connects he can probably put anyone away. Overeem's no dummy though. In can't see him playing to Ngannou's strengths. Overeem's the more polished striker by far but why stand with Ngannou? Why put that risk in your life when you don't have to? I think we'll he seeing cautious Overeem here. The one who cruised against Mir and Nelson. I think his whole plan will be to drag big Francis into a longer fight, push him against the fence, lean on him, take him down and just nullify him. Only going for the kill if the opportunity is there on a plate. The hope is that Ngannou will have answers to stop this and will wallop Reem into oblivion. But that's a test we've yet to see Ngannou face and I think Overeem's seasoned and crafty enough to successfully play the spoiler here. Wouldn't shock me if Ngannou starches him in 30 seconds either. His power + Overeem's suspect chin etc. But I see Overeem getting it done. 

Hoping for a Ngannou KO, expecting Overeem via deflating decision.

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Cejudo vs Pettis could be amazing. This has to be a #1 contenders match as well, right? Has that been confirmed? Nobody else would deserve the next crack at Mighty Mouse more than the winner of this fight. Only thing I could see stopping it would be if they can get that Mouse vs Dillashaw fight made. I'm guessing everyone's going to pick Cejudo here. It shouldn't be plain sailing though, Pettis is good. And I thought he looked better than ever in his last fight with Moreno. Got that 5 round experience in and looked really good all-round, I thought. I feel like Cejudo's turned a corner though. The quick loss to DJ followed by that dodgy points defeat to Benavidez really seems to have lit a fire under him. His striking his coming on, I liked the Karate style he adopted against Wilson Reis last time and obviously that Olympic gold wrestling base to fall back on doesn't hurt. I think this will be competitive as long as it's on the feet but Cejudo has the luxury of dictating where the fight takes place and his wrestling should pull him through. 

Cejudo by decision.

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Even on a card this good I can't see past Alvarez vs Gaethje for FOTN. Even if Alvarez tries to go the safe route like he did vs Pettis, I think Gaethje's wrestling will make that difficult and the grappling exchanges should still be exciting. I kind of see this playing out like Eddie's two wars with Michael Chandler in Bellator, and if it does we're in for something special. Like the Chandler fights though, it makes this almost a tossup. People will probably pick Gaethje because he's unbeaten and coming off that FOTY contender with Michael Johnson. But his style is so reckless and wide open you just never know. And Alvarez has the tools to take advantage of it and the toughness and gameness to hang in there and fire back in the heat of battle. 

Bit of a shot in the dark but I'm fancying Alvarez by KO/TKO in a crazy war.

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I really like Torres vs Waterson but on a main card like this it's just there. Should be a fun PPV opener though. I hope Waterson wins but I think Torres might just prove too physically strong for her. I think Waterson is the better overall fighter technically. I think she's the better striker and the better ground fighter but I see Torres being able to muscle her around.

Tecia Torres by decision. 

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Oliveira vs Felder is the pick of the prelims for me easy. We've all slept on this one. I forgot it was even happening. I was gutted when the original Iaquinta vs Felder fight fell apart but this is a quality backup. Love these clash of style fights. Oliveira's BJJ vs Felder's striking is a fun mashup of styles. But both are down to mix it up anywhere. Really like this one. I could easily see Oliveira blitzing through Felder with his grappling OR Felder knocking him silly with some spinning shit. It really is a 'fuck knows' fight this. 

I'll go Felder by KO. 

Look out for Dominick Reyes on the prelims as well. He's unbeaten and scored a big KO in seconds in his UFC debut and looked great doing it. Much needed new blood in the light heavyweight ranks so I hope he keeps winning. 

And I really hope Vinegar Tits gets battered. Hope Amanda Cooper wrecks the sour faced horrible little shit. Sounds mad but it's the result I'm probably most bothered about on the show. Can't stand VT. 

Full predictions...

Max Holloway by KO/TKO 

Alistair Overeem by Decision

Henry Cejudo by Decision 

Eddie Alvarez by KO/TKO

Tecia Torres by Decision

 Paul Felder by KO/TKO 

Alex Oliveira by Decision

David Teymur by KO/TKO 

Felice Herrig by Submission

Abdul Razak Alhassan by KO/TKO 

Dominick Reyes by KO/TKO 

Allen Crowder by KO/TKO 

Amanda Cooper by Decision

 

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how the hell does Magana still have a job? she lost her two fights pre-TUF, didnt win a fight on TUF and has gone 0-2 in the UFC, all whilst being a bit of a horrible bint. Baffling.

Anyone hear The Reem's comments that he reckons Ngannou is actually older than he is? 

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Yeah, I heard that from Overeem. "He's 31? He looks older than me. I want to see the documents". He's just jealous. 

As for Magana, I don't have a clue why she's still around. Shit fighter, even worse human being. And she thinks she's way fitter than she is. She's not even the fittest in this fight tonight, much less on a wider scale. Fuck, she's going to be the third most attractive person in the cage tonight behind Cooper and whoever the ref is. She is rotten. 

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Proper gutted if Reem wins. No idea if he does. Ropey chin or not, he's still Overeem and, as wand points out, will be interesting to see Ngannou tested against such an elite striker and seasoned pro. Let's not forget Reem very nearly stopped Stipe. He's also Ninja Reem, these days, with him quite happy to run away if you get close. It's a proper bugger for Ngannou, but all he has to do is connect, just Reem is proving to be right elusive and crafty since his chin seemed to pretty much evaporate post-PEDs.

No bitching about this card. Proper spoiled. It says it all when Aldo v Holloway 2 is one of the fights I'm less pumped for.

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I am behind Ngannou all the way in terms of support. Yet, I am only partially a believer in his ability. It's a fools game to invest into a Heavyweight prospect. For every Cain Velasquez, there are a dozen or so Todd Duffee's. Overeem is a stern test for Ngannou, by far his toughest test to date. Perhaps, as stated above, Overeem will beat Ngannou through pure guile and experience. Despite his weak chin, Overeem did manage to go three rounds against a slugger like Roy Nelson and comfortably get the verdict.

However, I also believe that Ngannou is one of the tougher tests that Overeem has had of late. If you look at Overeem's recent form, his opponents have flattered him a bit (bar Stipe). He was lucky to get the verdict against Werdum, in a fight that neither really impressed in. Granted, he did look strong against JDS and Hunt; but both had seen much better days. He also beat Arlovski, but so did Ngannou, and in quicker and more impressive fashion if memory serves correctly. 

Whatever the outcome, it is one of the more intriguing Heavyweight MMA fights of recent times. 

 

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Good fucking Jesus. Francis Ngannou will fuck your life up, and take a piss on your dreams. Scariest man who ever lived, hands down.

Enjoyed that show.

Gaethje is a warrior, but he’s too one note. It showed that MMA boxing under utilises the body, as he’s managed to get to #5 in the world by just stalking people down and covering up with a high guard to keep safe on his exits. The minute Eddie started mixing his combos up and using body hooks, it completely threw Justins’ gameplan in the bin. Eddie took a heap of damage, but his boxing was spectacular and he deserved the finish.

Max Holloway is an utter monster. Would love to see Holloway/McGregor 2.

*edit* Christ, how did I forget the Cowboy/Yancy fight? Utter, utter chaos.

 

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1 hour ago, d-d-d-dAz said:

Max Holloway is an utter monster. Would love to see Holloway/McGregor 2.

That would be the first time I'd be rooting against McGregor. Never thought I would but between McGregor going on like a complete cock lately and the fact that I'm a Holloway fan anyway, I'd be pulling for Max in that one. It'd be a great fight though. Probably won't happen but I'd love to see it. They fought before either of them really ascended in skills and status to where they are now. It had the feel even back in 2013 of a fight between two future main eventers who'd probably meet again for bigger stakes. Ideally they'd both keep winning and do a champ vs champ fight at MSG next year or something but who knows what McGregor will be doing next. Is he coming back? Is he Boxing? Are we going to get a news report that he's been found murdered and with a horse's head in his bed and a shillelagh up his arse? 

Anyway...Holloway looked phenomenal again. He's so good it's easy to forget he's still pretty young. He fights way beyond his years due to his early start in MMA. He got really good, really fast. I'm seeing a lot of stuff about Aldo's decline today but I don't even think it's so much that. Remember, it was only last year at UFC 200 that Aldo dominated Frankie Edgar. I just think Holloway is that good, and he has Aldo's number. I hope we see that Holloway vs Edgar fight now. That needs to happen.

I'd like to see Aldo give 155 a go. He's not likely to get to the title but he's well out of the picture at 145 now and there's some fun and fresh fights to be had with him at lightweight. Why not? I've got no interest in seeing Aldo climb the featherweight ladder again vs a Lamas or whoever. Zero. I think for now Aldo's best bet is to move to 155, leave that weight cut behind, and just make some fun fights. Let's finally see Aldo vs Pettis or something. I honestly think 155 could rejuvenate Aldo. 

Francis Fucking Ngannou!!! That man is just frightening. This was his biggest test by far and he goes and scores his most highlight reel KO ever. I don't think we've ever seen Overeem knocked out that cleanly before, have we? Unless I'm forgetting something obvious. He got proper ironed out cold here. Still remains to be seen how Ngannou handles more of a grappler but the early signs are good and he's passing all these tests with flying colours so far. Love him. He's got to get Stipe now. There's no-one else. Cain's been gone forever and he doesn't deserve it more than Ngannou anyway. 

Cejudo with a bit of a workmanlike performance but he got the job done against a tough and skilled opponent in Sergio Pettis. Unfortunately for Cejudo, this showing wont have people clamouring for him to get a title shot. He might get it anyway, if that DJ vs TJ fight doesn't come off, but from Dana's comments after the show the TJ fight is getting done next so Cejudo is probably fighting someone else next. 

Loved Alvarez vs Gaethje. It might not be a popular opinion but I actually had this as my FOTN over Medeiros vs Oliveira. Finish was better as well. Whatever though, both great fights. 

Really happy for Eddie Alvarez. Easily his best performance since the title win vs Dos Anjos. He needed something like this after the embarrassing loss against McGregor and the controversial ending against Poirier. He's always seemed like a great guy so I was glad to see him get that big finish in a fun fight, even though I like Gaethje too. And it's Gaethje's first loss. He'll be back. Alvarez definitely exposed the flaws in Gaethje's style like Daz says, but we knew he was wide open going in. He's talked about it himself. It's part of what makes him him, but for his own health and longevity in the sport I hope he finds the balance between being wild in a good way but also tightening up on his defence.

I really hope they go with Alvarez vs Poirier 2 next. And maybe Gaethje vs Guida or Lauzon or Miller. Someone like that. 

Torres vs Waterson went about how I expected. Sad to see Waterson lose again. She wasn't even outsized this time but I think Torres' strength was a big factor, especially in the clinches. Wouldn't be surprised to see Namajunas vs Torres 3 down the line for the title if Rose can hold onto the belt for a bit. Their first fight in Invicta was tremendous. But Rose has got a shark tank of challengers lining up from the Jedrzejczyk rematch to a Kowalkiewicz rematch to Andrade to Gadelha. She's got her work cut out. 

Prelims were pretty good, I thought. Of course Yancy Medeiros vs Cowboy Oliveira was fantastic. Great back and forth fight. I didn't think it was 'one of the best fights we've ever seen' (more Rogan hyperbole) but it was bags of fun and certainly one of the best fights this year. Had a feeling it'd be a good fight but didn't see it being that chaotic. 

Paul Felder looked really good stopping the other Oliveira. The elbows were brutal. Hoping they can get that Felder vs Iaquinta fight rescheduled. 

Haven't seen the Fight Pass prelims yet but I think I'll track them down. Glad to hear Dominick Reyes got another quick win and sounded like he looked a bit beastly again in the process. And Vinegar Bosoms got absolutely smashed by the sounds of it :D 

Really, really entertaining show. They've made a habit over the last few years of killing it with back-to-back awesome November and December PPVs. Last year we had 205 and 206 which were both brilliant. The year before that it was 193 and 194. And they've done it again here. 

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"Fuck slavery guy! Fuck racism! Yes."

I assume Ngannou just ended both. Either that or pro camps are probably hiding underground hoping Ngannou is really 82. Anyway, we occasionally bitch about the way UFC promote their fighters, but the "hardest punch ever" is genius - particularly when Ngannou does THAT. My heart was legit racing the moment the fight started because of the bombs that were about to fly in. I also didn't believe in ghosts until I saw Reem hug Ngannou at the end there. Pray for Stipe.

The main event was brilliant fun. Truly, I wasn't so arsed with it when it was announced, because of how the last fight went down, but that 3rd round was phenomenal. You could tell Aldo wasn't making it into the championship rounds from the 1st, and Holloway red-lining it in the 3rd was some mad high risk strategy that worked - you could see he had little respect for Aldo's power. Again, surprised at Aldo's lack of leg kicks, seeing as it's probably the best weapon to use against an all-action movement type like Holloway. Easier typed than done, of course, but Aldo seemed happier head hunting.

Alvarez v Gaethje was as advertised. Alvarez looked in incredible shape for this, which helped, but you get the sense with Gaethje that against THAT top 5 he was always going to struggle. Gaethje is the type that makes a man question his toughness, but the issue with that is pretty much anyone in the top 5 is double hard and mentally strong, but they also have superior top 5 skills to boot, which is what won out in the end here, I thought. Alvarez wasn't budging, even with one leg, in the end his movement and shots were better, with that knee being the exclamation mark on the point. Livid I didn't put money on Alvarez for the TKO.

Cejudo v Pettis is maybe the biggest disappointment of the year. I had high hopes for this, but it just turned into Cejudo doing an Olympic gold wrestlefuck. I don't know if it was due to Pettis being better, but Cejudo's stand up was no where near as sharp as it was a couple of months back. Cejudo seemed to lose discipline a few times with him abandoning that McGregor/Macheda style. Typing that, anyone know if he worked Macheda during this camp? It wouldn't surprise me if it was limited, given how off he seemed. Anyone Cejudo dominated, but everyone would much rather see DJ v TJ going on that display. Although, I think that's probably better for Cejudo.

Ngannou 1 Racist 0.

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I'm not sure if Cejudo trained with Machida this time but striking against Pettis was always going to be trickier than striking against Wilson Reis just because of the styles. Reis is a grappler with decent standup. Pettis is a really slick striker though and Cejudo probably didn't want to play around with that. Smart. Just not much fun to watch.

As for Aldo, I thought he leg kicked a fair bit this time, or as much as he could anyway. But Holloway's constant movement probably limited his opportunities to really whip them in. Big respect to Aldo though, he really went out on his shield in this one. He was getting fucked up in that third round but was still throwing bombs in the face of eating about 5 rapid fire shots in return for every punch he threw. He gave it his all. It's just Holloway's time and watching these two Aldo fights, I just don't think there's much Aldo could've done differently. Max has him figured out. 

Oh and I love that Ngannou had Jerome Le Banner in his corner. As a 90s K-1 bummer and big JLB fan, I proper marked out for that. 

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Yeah, I don't disagree, but just a little disappointed we didn't see more of what we mentioned. Cejudo, in particular, while dominant, I was expecting a better showing on the feet, but as pointed out, maybe it's purely down to Pettis being that much better than him on the feet. Thing is, on that showing, you fancy DJ to make easy work of Cejudo again.

Anyway...

 

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