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UFC 214: Cormier vs Jones 2


wandshogun09

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DC is pulling off a shock tonight. I can feel it. Hardly anyone is picking him but I just think people are forgetting just how good he is. 

Jones looks in great condition and looks a hell of a lot slimer than before. I think Cormier will be able to utilise his superior strength and boxing and mix in his wrestling this time out. 

I keep swaying back and forth with Woodley and Maia. I will go with a Woodley win but won't be surprised if we see something ridiculous from Maia like a standing rear naked choke.

Cyborg wins easily..next 

Lawler with the KO but you could easily see him losing by head kick or something. His demeanour has been terrifying in the build up yet coming into the ceremonial weigh ins yawning over and over worries me a little. Probably just Lawler being Lawler. 

Oezdimer by TKO. Not much behind this guess really. Manuwa is a superior striker but just gives his opponents far too many openings. 

 

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Picks for tonight:

Cormier by KO or submission. I think he wants it more and knows what to do, and I don't think he'll break this time either. If Cormier can do what he did in the second round the last time, for more of the fight, he can get the win.

Maia by submission, but that's so hard to pick I think. It ends via Woodley getting the KO or Maia via submission. It's such an interesting clash of styles, with obvious paths to victory for both men so it'll be great to see how it plays out. 

Cyborg via first round assassination.

Lawler vs Cerrone, for me, is down to when Lawler wakes up. Also have both guys taken too much damage at this point and are they able to take shots for a three round war? I'm unsure of that. If Lawler is on the front foot early I think he finishes it in the first, but if not then I feel Cerrone will win the first two rounds and Lawler will have to try and blitz him in the third. If Lawler still has his chin, it's good night Donald.

Ozedimir vis TKO is my pick as well. Simply, I don't know enough about him, but he's looked very good so far, and I feel Manuwa is being overrated for this one. 

I also wouldn't be a bit surprised to see Sterling and Knight get the wins via Decision in their fights. 

I've put a quite a few bets down as well, some of them hedging each other, so hopefully a couple of them come up to cover each other, but I was disappointed today to find I could only get 8/1, down from 18/1 yesterday, on Cormier via Submission. 8/5 on Lawler via destruction made up for it though.

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My guess is somewhere around 500,000. Being so close to Mayweather v McGregor could cost it anywhere up to 200,000 sales. It'll still turn out to be their best PPV of the year by a large margin though even if it falls greatly under expectations. 

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I’m picking Jones over Cormier for the same reasons almost everyone else has; unless we get the Jones that showed up against OSP, he’s just too good in too many areas for Cormier to handle. I would love for Cormier to flatten Jones with one punch, but outside of a Hail Mary play, I don’t think Cormier is beating Jones, either tonight or any night. I’m picking Maia over Woodley, but it’s a fight that could go either way. I want Maia to win and I think he has a very good chance, but I have a bad feeling Woodley is winning and I would really that. Speaking of Hail Mary’s, I’m going with Evinger to beat Cyborg. I’m fully aware there is little chance of this happening but I have a thing for underdogs, and I would love to see the UFC’s plans get torpedoed once again, especially by a fighter who they’ve never felt was good enough to be in the UFC and who they’re only using because nobody else willing to face Cyborg at such short notice. I’m going with Cerrone over Lawler; I think the wars have caught up with Lawler, and whilst Cerrone has been in his share of battles, I don’t think he’s taken the kind of punishment Lawler has. The opener is another fight that could either way but I’m going with Oezdemir over Manuwa.

Jones by Decision
Maia by Decision
Evinger by Submission
Cerrone by KO/TKO
Oezdemir by KO/TKO
Lamas by Submission
Sterling by Decision
Ortega by Submission
Fili by KO/TKO
Albu by KO/TKO
Shelton by Decision
Dober by Decision

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24 minutes ago, Noah Southworth said:

I think the wars have caught up with Lawler

You could well be right but I think it's a bit early to say that based on the Woodley KO. Woodley can do that to anyone if he connects clean early on. We'll see how he looks in his next couple of fights. 

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Yeah, it's no shameful thing to be dropped by Woodley. If he connects on the chin you're going down regardless of who you are.

It's a minor, odd thing but I fucking love it when Jones does his mental patient esque screaming. Something about seeing him go physically berserk is a big hype thing for me. Still hope Cormier chokes him out though. Bellend.

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42 minutes ago, wandshogun09 said:

You could well be right but I think it's a bit early to say that based on the Woodley KO. Woodley can do that to anyone if he connects clean early on. We'll see how he looks in his next couple of fights. 

It’s not just based on the Woodley KO.

Lawler’s fought at a terrific pace in the last couple of years; he fought Johny Hendricks, Jake Ellenberger and Matt Brown all in the space of three months. It might have been three years ago, but that kind of pacing takes a toll. And of the six fights Lawler had between March 2014 and January 2016, five were five-round fights and all five hit the fifth round, with only one not going the distance. And in each of those fights, Lawler took a lot of punishment but still kept going. I don’t believe it’s a coincidence that when Lawler finally lost, it only took one good punch to drop him, when normally it would take several good punches just to get the guy to wobble. I also don’t believe it’s a coincidence that, for the first time in nine years, Lawler has taken a full year between fights. I believe Lawler has become very aware that he can’t keep pushing the pace like he used to, but I also believe the damage has been done and that all the rest in the world won’t change the fact that Lawler is starting to pay the price for having been in so many wars.

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1 minute ago, Noah Southworth said:

It’s not just based on the Woodley KO.

Lawler’s fought at a terrific pace in the last couple of years; he fought Johny Hendricks, Jake Ellenberger and Matt Brown all in the space of three months. It might have been three years ago, but that kind of pacing takes a toll. And of the six fights Lawler had between March 2014 and January 2016, five were five-round fights and all five hit the fifth round, with only one not going the distance. And in each of those fights, Lawler took a lot of punishment but still kept going. I don’t believe it’s a coincidence that when Lawler finally lost, it only took one good punch to drop him, when normally it would take several good punches just to get the guy to wobble. I also don’t believe it’s a coincidence that, for the first time in nine years, Lawler has taken a full year between fights. I believe Lawler has become very aware that he can’t keep pushing the pace like he used to, but I also believe the damage has been done and that all the rest in the world won’t change the fact that Lawler is starting to pay the price for having been in so many wars.

I think you're understating Woodley's power a little there. The guy has fists like a sledgehammer. I don't think there's a Welterweight in the UFC who could stand and take a shot from Woodley without ending up flat on his back. I think tonight will be a lot more telling in terms of how much, if any Lawler's chin has deteriorated. Cerrone is a good striker, but he isn't a one-shot knockout guy like Tyron is. We'll be able to gauge how well Lawler can take a punch a lot better after tonight in my opinion.

Of course Lawler is going to struggle to keep fighting at the intensity, and the style he fights with. I think however it's telling that he's aware of that and has consequently taken a year out from the sport. It's a decision that could be looked at from a negative and positive standpoint. I think you're right in saying that his physical status plays a part but I'd argue there are other factors. Taking some time away from an exceedingly busy routine, just losing his title, the whole changing of camps. He might well return to the game with a suspect chin, but it's going to take more than a knockout from one of the most explosive guys in the company to convince me he's genuinely regressing. 

 

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Well, holy shit. We're hours away and Jon Jones hasn't fucked it up. This looks like it's actually happening!

If DC wins it'll be my favourite result of all time. Better than Conor knocking out Aldo, better than Bisping winning the belt, better than Brock at UFC 100. I'll be over the moon.

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7 minutes ago, Supremo said:

If DC wins it'll be my favourite result of all time. Better than Conor knocking out Aldo, better than Bisping winning the belt, better than Brock at UFC 100. I'll be over the moon.

 

Me too - except for Conor beating Aldo. 

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