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UFC 211: Miocic vs Dos Santos 2


wandshogun09

Who wins and how?   

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Fucking hell. So that's my acca fucked before we've even got to the event? You bastard, Cejudo. Hope you get wrecked.

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11 minutes ago, Dead Mike said:

That's a ridiculous size difference. Reckon Yair can stop the takedown? That's got to be Edgar's gameplan as his normal stick & move striking will be very difficult with such a reach advantage.

The takedown has to be Edgar's gameplan as I think he's going to get obliterated on the feet. I've got a horrible feeling that if Edgar does come out victorious then his face is going to be reminiscent of his fights vs Maynard. 

I've haven't seen enough of Yair demonstrating his takedown defence to hazard a guess unfortunately, but you would have to think the modern MMA fighter has some form defence? I think it's going to be a rough night for Edgar. 

My re-amended prediction now goes as, Miocic, Andrade, Maia (but i'm starting to doubt this), Branch , Rodriguez and Alvarez (and even this is causing me grief as Poirier looked in great condition in the staredowns).

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2 hours ago, Carbomb said:

Fucking hell. So that's my acca fucked before we've even got to the event? You bastard, Cejudo. Hope you get wrecked.

Cejudo wouldn't have added much value, he was 1/5 on. Your acca will still stand without him.

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Just now, Egg Shen said:

Cejudo wouldn't have added much value, he was 1/5 on. Your acca will still stand without him.

Will it? That's good to know (I'm a complete n00b as a bettor). Thanks!

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8 hours ago, wandshogun09 said:

How do you get injured this late in the game? It's the fucking Thursday of fight week. Training would be all done now and all you'd be doing is trying to make weight and doing media. 

Power wank? If it was Black Beast it would almost certainly be due to the strain of his 5th monster wank that day.

Shame about the Cejudo fight, but it was a nice opener nothing else to me. 

And, aye, good luck Frankie!

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Agreed. If we were going to lose a fight of the main card, Cejudo vs Pettis is definitely the one I can live without.  

I really can't wait for this now. Not only are the top 5 or 6 fights tremendous on paper, I'm also about 50/50 on all of them. 

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As a fan, it's still a shame to be losing Cejudo vs. Pettis, purely from a match-making perspective. The winner of that match is surely going to go on to face Mighty Mouse, and I'd like to see a bit more movement in the flyweight division in this regard. Things are stagnant enough as they are.

As regards the rest of the card, I agree it's an absolute monster. Obviously I'm bound by my bets to want certain results, but I don't think I would feel particularly aggrieved about any results except Maia losing. He's still one of my favourites, he's deserved a WW world title shot for some time, and Masvidal's a wanker anyway.

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I think they could just go straight to Mighty Mouse vs Sergio Pettis for the title next. Fuck this Cejudo fight. Pettis is riding 3 wins and is a fresh body. Might as well chuck him into the meat grinder. 

Depends if Sergio is willing to wait for DJ though. Is he getting paid anything for this? He should at least be getting his show money, right? 

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Predictions!

I'm plumping with Miocic for the main event. I think like McGregor, I'm at the point where I'm done doubting him, because every time I do he goes right ahead and makes me look a twat. His loss to JDS was extremely close, and he's been on an utter tear since then. Finishing Mark Hunt? Knocking out Arlovski, Werdum and Reem in the first round? Yeah. That's a guy that I'm not going to pick against unless he's against an utter monster. We've seen him come back from sticky situations as well, like when he got knocked down by Overeem after about a minute and came back to punch the piss out of him. I just think his boxing is slightly above the level JDS holds, and he's taken a lot less damage over the course of his career, meaning I can therefore see him sneaking a victory. It's going to be a really close fight though.

Joanna/Jessica is another utter cunt of a fight to predict, because they both excel in similar areas. Like Stipe, Joanna has had to come back from genuine adversity in her last two fights, when Gadelha had hear beat for the first two rounds, and when Karolina cracked her in their right, and like Stipe she's managed to mount comebacks to win the belt. The biggest problem here is how fast a starter Jessica is. I certainly fancy Joanna as the all round better striker, but she tends to come out the gates a bit slow, which she can't afford to do against someone who will waste no time at all trying to knock you out. If JJ can withstand those opening rounds, I'll say that she just manages to pick Andrade off for the rest of the fight, but it's going to be a major difficulty getting through those first couple of rounds without taking a lot of damage.

Yair and Edgar, in a running theme, is another real 50/50. I had initially fancied Edgar to just wrestle his way to a 30-27, but then I only wrapped my head around the size difference at the media day staredowns and changed my mind. Yair is lean, and has fantastic movement, which is likely to be a massive spanner in the works for Frankie trying to close the distance. Though we've never seen Rodriguez face somebody with the level of wrestling Edgar has, I can't really remember anyone trying to clinch with him, or take him down, and I'd predict his slick movement and lanky frame is a big factor behind that. Edgar's chin has really been tested as well, Stephens dropped him in their fight with a vicious kick, and if you're coming up against someone as diverse with his striking as Yair, being able to withstand those shots will play a big part. I don't know though, because Edgar is going to be hugely motivated for this to prove he still belongs in this new era of Featherweights. I'll say that Edgar wins Round 1 due to his grappling, but gets caught and put away in the 2nd via 840 Cartwheel Kick or something equally absurd.

Maia and Masvidal is probably the easiest of the four to predict. I just can't see Jorge being able to put up with the BJJ game that Maia demonstrates. The fucker put Carlos Condit away in a minute for crying out loud. He hasn't faced anyone that comes close to having the ground game of Maia (to be fair though, there's not many people on the planet that can touch him) and I just think it's going to be a miserable night for him. Maia is too good at the moment.

As for the rest of the fights, I'll say: Alvarez, Branch, Knight, Vick, Gordon and Aguilar.

 

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Just now, wandshogun09 said:

I think they could just go straight to Mighty Mouse vs Sergio Pettis for the title next. Fuck this Cejudo fight. Pettis is riding 3 wins and is a fresh body. Might as well chuck him into the meat grinder. 

Depends if Sergio is willing to wait for DJ though. Is he getting paid anything for this? He should at least be getting his show money, right? 

Yeah, he's going to get his show money.

I wouldn't be against Sergio getting the next shot. Have him headline a FOX card against Johnson with Anthony in the co-main.

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I like the idea but Anthony's fighting Jim Miller at 213. 

I still think Edgar beats everyone currently at 145 not named Aldo. I'm yet to see evidence of him slowing down and while Yair is ridiculously exciting to watch and has the potential to be a huge star...I just don't know. He is much bigger than Frankie but it's Frankie Edgar. The Rocky Balboa of MMA. He's as hard and granite tough as he is skilled. And Yair hasn't fought on that level yet, much less won at that level. His best wins are a decision over Bruce Leroy and a stoppage over the empty husk that is BJ Penn in 2017. The Penn win pretty much tells us nothing. BJ was a sitting duck. Yair was able to do what he wanted. It was like my matches against my Ultimate Warrior wrestling buddy as a kid. Poor Warrior got no offence in and literally got the stuffing knocked out of him on a regular basis. Yair vs BJ was that. 

And I love Leroy but he's not elite, is he? And while I definitely had Yair winning that one, Caceres was very competitive. That fight was only last August. From going the distance with Caceres to beating Frankie bastard Edgar in around 9 months is a huge leap. If he can do it it'll be amazing and a massive feather in his cap but I'm not convinced. 

As for Maia vs Masvidal, I see it going Maia's way but I won't be surprised if Masvidal catches him. Maia ran through Condit but I think Masvidal has a trickier style for Maia than Condit did. Condit's never been the hardest to take down. It's his only weakness really. Masvidal definitely has better wrestling than Condit. Completely different movement and footwork too. I could see him being difficult. I think Maia ends up outgrappling him to a decision though. 

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2 hours ago, wandshogun09 said:

I like the idea but Anthony's fighting Jim Miller at 213. 

I still think Edgar beats everyone currently at 145 not named Aldo. I'm yet to see evidence of him slowing down and while Yair is ridiculously exciting to watch and has the potential to be a huge star...I just don't know. He is much bigger than Frankie but it's Frankie Edgar. The Rocky Balboa of MMA. He's as hard and granite tough as he is skilled. And Yair hasn't fought on that level yet, much less won at that level. His best wins are a decision over Bruce Leroy and a stoppage over the empty husk that is BJ Penn in 2017. The Penn win pretty much tells us nothing. BJ was a sitting duck. Yair was able to do what he wanted. It was like my matches against my Ultimate Warrior wrestling buddy as a kid. Poor Warrior got no offence in and literally got the stuffing knocked out of him on a regular basis. Yair vs BJ was that. 

And I love Leroy but he's not elite, is he? And while I definitely had Yair winning that one, Caceres was very competitive. That fight was only last August. From going the distance with Caceres to beating Frankie bastard Edgar in around 9 months is a huge leap. If he can do it it'll be amazing and a massive feather in his cap but I'm not convinced. 

As for Maia vs Masvidal, I see it going Maia's way but I won't be surprised if Masvidal catches him. Maia ran through Condit but I think Masvidal has a trickier style for Maia than Condit did. Condit's never been the hardest to take down. It's his only weakness really. Masvidal definitely has better wrestling than Condit. Completely different movement and footwork too. I could see him being difficult. I think Maia ends up outgrappling him to a decision though. 

Using similar-ish logic though, Edgar's last fight was a close decision against Jeremy Stephens in a fight where he was notably hurt. That same Jeremy Stephens has recent losses to the likes of Renato Moicano and Charles Oliviera, whom also wouldn't fall into the category of elite. Whilst I wouldn't say it's a sign of Edgar slowing down, coming up against an aggressive, lanky, excessively dangerous striker might not work out too brilliantly. I just have a hunch that Edgar is going to get clipped going for the takedown, and that'll be the fight done. Whilst Yair doesn't have the excellent takedown defence that some of Frankie's opponents do, I don't think Frankie has faced anyone who has as much variety in their arsenal as Yair does which I think may leave him wary when trying to shoot in. Compliment that with Yair having that awkward movement style, I wouldn't be surprised to see him take it.

Or I'm talking shit and Edgar grapple fucks him to a 30-27.

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Bisping thinks Demian Maia is going to "roll up Jorge Masvidal like a cigar". 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=y97dG_L8Fho

Apparently Masvidal slagged off Bisping and his podcast recently so Bisping has a few comments back in there as well. 

"He's too busy trimming his beard and picking out women's Rolex's".

Masvidal trains with Yoel Romero at ATT as well, so this could be add another layer to the buildup for that one. 

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