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UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs Penn - Jan 15


wandshogun09

Who wins and how?   

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I really want to be proven wrong with B.J. However, I can only see the fight going one way. Penn will come out and look up for it during the opening exchange, but will get the worst of it. From there Rodriguez will dominate the fight with relative ease, as Penn grows disinterested, and starts to feel sorry for himself. It will be another fight that's awkward to watch unravel. Eventually, Rodriguez will get the stoppage, and no one will look that happy about it. The show will end quietly, and the whole thing will feel like a waste of time. 

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That's exactly as i see it going. I rarely feel as sure about how a fight will play out as i do about this one.

 

The only thing that gives me a glimmer of hope for BJ is the Greg Jackson factor in the corner.

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I was just reading through this week's Observer and I noticed Aleksei Oleinik's record is 50-10-1. I haven't ever seen him fight, but how the hell is he walking around and only 39 with that many fights on his record? I took a bit of a look through his record and he is coming off a decision loss, but before that he had 11 wins on the bounce and his last fight was after nearly a 2 year break. Does anybody that knows much about him know if he is somebody who could make a few waves in the division in the twilight of his career? Some heavyweights seem to be able to have a bit of a career resurgence as they get older, could he be one of them?

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Oliynyk is decent enough but I don't see him ever doing much, or "making waves" in the heavyweight division as you put it. His record is good numbers wise. Just because of the sheer volume of fights he's had. Anyone with 50 MMA wins is going to be pretty badass. But when you look at his record, the bulk of his wins are against Russians nobody knows anything about. The names on his record we do recognise range from good to very average but pretty much all the good names he's beaten were at the arse end of their career. Cro Cop is his best win by far. But Cro Cop of 2013 was mostly focused on his kickboxing comeback in GLORY, the Oliynyk fight was Mirko's only venture into MMA in 2013. It probably sounds harsh because as of right now he's beat better opponents than Francis Ngannou who I am high on. But Oliynyk just doesn't seem like he's getting any better than he already is. And at 39 I'd say it's pretty safe to assume he's peaked. At nearly 40 years old and with over 60 MMA fights under your belt, you want to have more to show for it than wins over Cro Cop version 2013, Jared Rosholt and a 1-1 tie with Jeff Monson. He'll trade wins in the middle of the heavyweight pack. He'll probably be fine at that level. But he gets royally fucked up the second he steps up with anyone near top level. I know it's a shallow division but the top guys are still killers. I can't see Oliynyk beating Arlovski, Barnett, Hunt, Rothwell or Nelson much less Miocic, Werdum, Velasquez, Overeem or Dos Santos. So just off the top of my head that's 10 guys he's most likely not troubling. And I'd say there's way more upside and potential in Ngannou, Lewis and even Volkov. Oliynyk is in no mans land along with the Stefan Struves, Anthony Hamiltons and Timothy Johnsons of the world.

 

Oliynyk did KO Jared Rosholt in a round in the UFC though. He's OK by me. Probably Rosholt's most enjoyable fight that.

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 I haven't ever seen him fight, but how the hell is he walking around and only 39 with that many fights on his record? 

Different times. He's been fighting on and off since 1997. Outside of the UFC, fighters can fight much more often - especially in countries where the sport is less regulated. A quick glance at his record shows that he fought 11 times in 2008 alone. That's almost once per month. 

 

In terms of his longevity, fuck knows. I did notice that he's had some lay offs. Also, as mentioned above, he's fought a lot of bums. Fighting jobbers is always going to be less taxing on the body. 

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Thanks for the information fellas. As you both have said, his record does seem to have an awful lot of padding on it. I probably phrased it incorrectly by saying he might make waves. At his age, the lay off's he's had and the lack of real quality opponents he's had that would be very unlikely as you both have said. Maybe potential banana skin for somebody in the 10-15 range of the rankings might have been a better question.

 

As Wand was saying, I like Ngannou and Lewis coming through in the HW division, and who they have both been matched with for their next fights is spot on for me. They need to fight experienced hands who are past their peak but who's name on your record still means something, and that's the case with both of them on the horizon.

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Yeah I really like both upcoming fights for Ngannou and Lewis. Should give us a better read on where they both stand as they're both fighting guys who are established and are pretty much gatekeepers to the top of the division.

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Just watched the Countdown and the weigh ins. I know better than this but once again I've been sucked into kind of buying what BJ Penn's selling. Don't get me wrong, I'm not thinking he'll win tonight but I can see him looking better than we've all been expecting. I don't know what it is that always gets me reeled into his comebacks but it happens every time.

 

On the plus side for Penn, he's had a long time in the gym. With all these fight cancellations and delays, it's meant he's got a lot of time in the gym. And it sounds like he's had a lot more structure to his training this time than he did before his last comeback against Frankie Edgar in 2014. He's back with Jason Parillo and he's been training at Greg Jackson's for the majority of last year. My feeling is it'll be too little, too late but he's giving himself the best possible chance here. If he gets destroyed tonight it won't be because he hasn't put the hours in in camp.

 

I liked how he looked at the weigh in as well...

 

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Physically he looks in tremendous shape. But then he did against Edgar last time as well and he still got smashed. But he looked good physically and I liked how he looked in the staredown, getting in Yair's face a bit. He just seems more intense and up for this to me than he has for his last couple of comebacks. I think he knows it's got to be his last run.

 

I'd like to see BJ come out and go full on grappler mode if he can tonight. It's the one area he's got a significant advantage in in this fight. Plus it'd probably work because no doubt Yair is expecting BJ to box with him. I think the element of surprise could work well for Penn, like it did early on against Jon Fitch years ago. And while Yair can handle himself on the ground, Penn's BJJ is on another level.

 

But you just know Penn is going to come out to strike. If this was prime Penn that'd be fine. But I see him getting shown up in that kind of fight at this point against someone like Rodriguez.

 

I'm going with Yair on a TKO in the later rounds. I actually think BJ might have a strong start but it'll fizzle out and Yair will just pick him apart and keep upping the pace until BJ wilts and is stopped on an accumulation of damage. Can see it going similar to Ricky Hatton's comeback against Senchenko a few years ago actually. With BJ doing well early but ultimately just not having it down the stretch.

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I came in here to post something similar to wand. There is no doubting BJ has worked hard on his conditioning, but we saw only a few weeks ago being in "the best shape of their career" means nowt when you're getting smashed in the face.

 

Who knows maybe Penn has found the fire again, but he's up against someone that is on a mission right now.

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