UFC on FOX: Maia vs Condit - Aug 27th

[wandshogun09]

Ahead of the rematch on Saturday night, the UFC have uploaded Miller vs Lauzon 1 in full on their YouTube channel...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&persist_app=1&v=SavUamvUFPY

 

If you haven't seen it before then sort yourself out.

[ElCece]

Thanks for that Wand. Great fight to get you in the mood. Always liked Jim Millers blue collar style but I do think Lauzons striking is alot more dynamic now so think he will edge it.

 

4 fights that I'm really looking forward to on the main card the undercard not so much

[Egg Shen]

alot is being made of how bad Anthony Pettis looks during his first cut to 145...

 

 

the picture honestly makes it look worse than it is but he does looks considerably different. Part of me thinks this may be one of those 1 time disaster cuts.

 

...ive still picked Pettis in my acca though.

[jimufctna24]

Looks more like his Brother. 

[ColinBollocks]

I've always worried about this cut for Pettis. He was already a pretty lean lightweight. 

[textonly]

Maia is one of my favourite fighters so, while I know this sounds a bit mental, in the last few weeks I've been more excited for this fight than I was for McGregor-Diaz 2 (even though those guys are two of my faves too). It's just... Robbie Lawler's reign as champ was full of amazing fights, I admit, but the fights were basically all the same, stand-and-bang slugfest types. I wanted to see the champ forced to solve a very different problem. I thought Maia, who has looked dominant in his own right, would do that and have a genuine chance of winning. Woodley's the champ now and the argument doesn't quite hold the same weight, but it's still something I'd like to see; the chance to try something different to the carousel of Lawler, Hendricks, Condit, Rory etc. that title scene has been for a few years.

 

I'm a bit worried though. My heart says Maia but my gut says Condit will sneak it. I love Maia and his skillset, but he's always looked a much worse fighter in five round fights. Against strong opposition it's harder to impose his gameplan and, even if he does, I can envision fans booing and Dana being put off giving him the shot.

 

And damn... Pettis looks like McGregor at a featherweight weigh-in.

[SNRN10]

Adam Huner Pulledc due to Potential USADA Violation [Announced AFTER Early Weigh ins] - http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/8/26/12666110/ufc-s-adam-hunter-flagged-by-usada-pulled-from-ufc-on-fox-21-fight [sample Date Aug 11] Fight card now down to 10 Fights

[wandshogun09]

Can't wait for this card. The prelims are doing nothing for me really but I honestly think that main card is the best Big FOX main card they've put together in ages. I'm heavily invested all four fights in one way or another and every fight has at least one fighter I'm a big fan of. In fact, of the 8 fighters featured on the main card, Bec Rawlings is the only one I'm not a fan of. I love the other seven.

 

Got Maia on points

Pettis by TKO (I still have faith)

PVZ by Sub

Lauzon by decision

[ElCece]

Yeah I'm super excitied for this card. I never normally stay up for the Fox sports cards but reckon I might tonight.

 

Predictions-

 

Condit KO/TKO

Pettis KO/TKO

Van Zant- Decision

Lauzon-KO/TKO

[wandshogun09]

Just watched the weigh ins. Still find the whole exercise of still doing the weigh in show hours after the actual weigh in odd but whatever.

 

 

I'm fascinated by Maia vs Condit. If Maia was fighting pretty much anyone else with weak takedown defence I'd be confidently predicting he'd steamroll right over them. But Condit's an animal. He's got every ingredient you could want in a fighter (aside from takedown defence) from striking skills to BJJ skills (top and bottom) to conditioning to heart to chin to aggression to fight IQ. He's a handful for anyone. Nobody runs through Carlos Condit. I do see Maia winning but I don't think it'll be straight forward at all. Can see full energy Maia giving Condit hell early on. Maybe the first 2 or 3 rounds. But I think Condit will be the stronger fighter down the stretch and give Maia a few scares late in the fight.

 

Maia by decision is my pick. I won't be surprised if Condit wins but I feel like the timing of this fight is good for Maia. He's on a good streak and Condit's still talking about wrapping up his career. He's a professional and I have no doubt he'll be going for it 100% tonight but you have to have some concerns when a fighter seems to have one foot in retirement. Especially when he's in there with someone the calibre of Demian Maia.

 

 

Pettis vs Oliveira, the closer it's gotten I'm just getting this feeling Pettis is going to fuck him up. Yeah, we've all had doubts over Pettis with him going 0-3 in his last 3 but I actually think that will serve as a wake up call and a real motivator for him here. Couple that with a cut down to 145 possibly meaning he's had to work harder in camp and his opponent being good but a clear step down from the guys who beat Pettis recently...I think there's good reason to be optimistic about Showtime here.

 

I always love to watch the weigh in staredowns and I don't know if it was just me but I got a different vibe off Pettis in his staredown for this fight than I did in his recent weigh ins. He seemed more intense and serious to me whereas he had more of a cocky look about him for some of the others, if I'm remembering correctly. Seemed more like the WEC Pettis with the chip on the shoulder to me. He's definirely got something to prove here so maybe the pressure will be good for him.

 

Also, as shit and sucked in as he looked in some of the pictures this week, remember that with the way they do the weigh ins now, he had longer to rehydrate after weighing in. He looked great on the scales at the 'fake weigh ins'...

 

 

No doubt the cut is probably no fun, but I think we could actually see a better Pettis at 145. He could carry more power and he should benefit from fighting guys who aren't as physically strong as RDA and Alvarez. If he loses tonight, I don't think it'll be a weight cut issue. I think it comes down to where his head is mentally. Because this is a fight he should win. And that's not me dismissing Charles Oliveira. I'm a big fan of him. But I think if Pettis is on he mops the octagon with him.

 

Pettis by crushing first round TKO for me. I still believe.

 

 

VanZant vs Rawlings should be exciting. Paige just doesn't do boring fights and from what I recall of Rawlings, she doesn't either. I can't say my memory is strong on Rawlings though. If she was anything special I'm sure I'd remember. I just recall her being tough and a bit of a scrapper. Decent but nothing to write home about. I don't have a strong sense on how this goes other than Paige should probably be winning this. I don't think the UFC would've booked it if they thought she'd be likely to lose because they'll be wanting to build her back up after Namajunas battered her into oblivion. And coming off her stint on Dancing With The Stars, they'll want to capitalise on that with her returning to the winning column live on FOX. So they must see Rawlings as cannon fodder.

 

I'll go with VanZant by sub, round 2. I remember Rawlings being more of a striker/brawler and not being any great shakes on the ground. I reckon Paige overwhelms her with combos, scrambles and sub attempts before catching her with something. Probably an armbar.

 

 

If Miller vs Lauzon 2 is anything like their first fight, we're in for a barnburner FOTY contender here. Everyone seems to be picking Lauzon this time. I am as well but I'm really not sure why, when I think about it. Miller butchered him in 2012. What made the fight so great was Lauzon's granite toughness and refusal to fuck off. Has either guy's game changed significantly since then? I do get the feeling Miller's lost maybe half a step over the last couple of years, so maybe others have felt that as well and that's why more people are fancying Lauzon this time. But Miller's still a little savage. I know Gomi's seen better days but the way Miller squashed him at UFC 200 was pretty fucking impressive to me. As was Lauzon stopping Diego Sanchez quick.

 

Miller and Lauzon are two hard as fuck, battle tested, blood and guts warriors. They've both had their setbacks and spilt pints of blood in the octagon but they showed at UFC 200 that they're both still dangerous. It's a bit of a coin flip to me.

 

I'll stick with my original gut feeling of Lauzon on points but it's the hardest fight to call on the card for me.

[Shane O' Mac Version 2]

My picks:

 

Maia by 4th round sub. I have the feeling this fight will be a slight disappointment, in that Maia will impose his grappling and completely stifle Condit's exciting game. I think he'll find an opening for a choke in the championship rounds.

 

Pettis by KO/TKO. Pettis has seemed on the slide, and Oliveira is very talented, long been one of my faves... but he does have a suspect chin, which I think a motivated Showtime will take advantage of.

 

VanZant by decision. It'll be your typical gritty PVZ, very gritty, lots of clinch work and dirty boxing/knees. Rawlings is tough but I can't stand her. Leaving my country behind on this one and I'm Team Pretty Young Thing on this one.

 

Lauzon by KO/TKO. Of the two veterans, I think Lauzon has more in the tank than Miller. I have been a big Miller fan in the past but he seems like he's slid in recent years. Lauzon was a fucking buzzsaw at 200, and I think he can put on the pressure and deliver a repeat performance, I don't think Miller can take shots like he did 3 years ago.

 

On the prelims, Sam Alvey will smile a lot and forget to actually fight in the cage. I'm still bitter about that Theodoru fight.

[ColinBollocks]

Wow. What a show of highlights.

 

Maia is one scary man. Who has ever handled Condit in such a way as Maia did? The moment Maia got a hold of him it seemed inevitable he'd choke him out and of course, he got the back super quick. Give him a title shot Dana! He could not have looked more impressive. Condit is again talking retirement, after that you can understand why.

 

The Pettis fight was a treat, as I thought Pettis would wrap it up early doors, but Oliveira showed he's more durable than some were giving him credit for. A couple of times when Oliveira got the back I thought Pettis was heading into Dan Hardy territory, but fair play, his ground game is good and he got the choke. Pleased to see Pettis win again and overcome the usual tactics used to overcome his skill set.

 

PVZ though.

[wandshogun09]

Yeah that was a brilliant show. It was pretty much exactly how it looked on paper - weak prelims, great main card.

 

Maia was terrifying. I don't think anyone saw him winning that quickly or easily. He's surely getting a title shot next. Welterweight is in a weird spot though because you have Maia who absolutely deserves his shot, Wonderboy who absolutely deserves his shot, then you have the x-factor in GSP's return. You have to assume that if GSP's good to go for December in Toronto, if he wants to reclaim his title at 170 they'll give him that chance no question. It mightn't be an issue, maybe GSP will want to fight someone else first. But if GSP wants a crack at the belt at 170, I don't see how the UFC say no to that. If that happens then I think we might see Woodley vs GSP at UFC 206. Possibly with a Maia vs Wonderboy #1 contenders match on the same show.

 

But yeah, as I said in the opening post, Maia's a scary man. I can see Condit retiring now. He was already hinting at it after the Lawler fight. This won't have helped. But then again, I find it difficult to imagine that someone like Condit will be content to go out on a loss like this. He didn't even get to fight really, Maia just had his way from the off. Fuck knows what Condit does. I wouldn't be at all against them doing that Lawler vs Condit rematch now, actually. Why not? Or either of them vs Nick Diaz. Or a Diaz vs Lawler vs Condit triple threat match. Yes.

 

Pettis vs Oliveira was fucking incredible. This was my FOTN. Such a fun fight to watch. Oliveira's had his moments where he's crumbled in fights but then other times he'll go out there and go to war. His two fights with Nik Lentz showed that. He gave Frankie Edgar a hell of a fight a few years back as well. And now this one with Pettis. Loved this fight. Exactly what Pettis needed as well. I really think those three losses in a row might've helped Pettis in the long run, in a fucked up way. He seemed to be getting a serious case of big head syndrome for a while there, talking about himself being the best ever and all that silliness. I think he let his awesome streak of wins from the Lauzon KO in 2012 to the Melendez sub in 2014 go to his head. He looked like he was back to business here though. No fucking about, back to the WEC shorter hair look etc. He fought really well as well. There were points in the fight where I thought he should've just made Oliveira stand up instead of fucking around with him on the ground but he obviously knew what he was doing. And the fact that he submitted a quality grappler like Oliveira is more impressive than if he'd scored some highlight reel flashy KO.

 

I know he's only one fight in but I honestly think he could be a force at 145. This win will hopefully give him the much needed confidence boost he needed after the three losses, but hopefully this time he stays grounded and doesn't start thinking he's untouchable. You don't want to be thinking you're invincible in the shark tank that is the featherweight division.

 

Paige winning with the crane kick in seconds was beautiful. Couldn't have rebounded from the Namajunas loss any better than this. And it's an added bonus that it was twatty Bec Rawlings on the shitty end of that kick. Best thing is as well, Paige should be good to go for a quick turnaround now. I really, really want to see a Paige VanZant vs Michelle Waterson fight.

 

Miller vs Lauzon 2 was another incredible fight. Really exciting main card opener. It wasn't quite as good as their first fight but that was one of the best fights ever in the 155 division. It was quality though. I felt like Lauzon had done enough to win the decision when the scores were read but it was one of those close fights that you can't really complain about points wise. I kind of lost track of the scoring anyway, to be honest. Excellent fight though. Kind of a shame Miller is 2-0 now though because I'd love to have seen a rubber match somewhere down the road.

 

A fantastic main card. Prelims were a bit crap though. The highlight for me was that Felipe Silva. Undefeated and judging by the way he dealt with Shane Campbell, a very heavy hitter. I can see him being one of my favourite prelimers.

 

Good show. The main card was one of my favourite shows of the year easy.

[ElCece]

Did not see Maia being quite that dominant but loved it. Over the moon for him. Didn't consider the impact a GSP return would have on his title shot but I don't think they can deny him one. Bit off a gutter but thats the game

[wandshogun09]

GSP's got a few options as his return fight so maybe Maia or Wondeboy will still get the next crack at Woodley. But yeah, GSP's going to jump that queue if reclaiming his title is the plan.