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UFC on FOX: Maia vs Condit - Aug 27th


wandshogun09

Who wins and how?   

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OK, we're back on Big FOX on August 27th as the UFC returns to Vancouver.

 

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FOX MAIN CARD

Demian Maia vs Carlos Condit

Anthony Pettis vs Charles Oliveira

Paige VanZant vs Bec Rawlings

Jim Miller vs Joe Lauzon

 

FOX PRELIMS

Sam Alvey vs Kevin Casey

Enrique Barzola vs Kyle Bochniak

Garreth McLellan vs Alessio Di Chirico

Shane Campbell vs Felipe Silva

 

FIGHT PASS PRELIMS

Chad Laprise vs Thibault Gouti

Alex Ricci vs Jeremy Kennedy

 

A card of two halves. The main card is outstanding. To me that's the strongest FOX main card they've put together so far this year. But the prelims leave me a bit cold. As long as the main card stays how it is I'm happy though.

 

I'm actually a bit gutted though because I'll be in Vancouver in October because I've got family who live over there. So if this was about 6 weeks later I could've gone to this. As it is, I'm going to miss going to this AND UFC 204 in Manchester. I'll be in the UK when this Vancouver card happens but I'll be in Vancouver when the UK card happens. Typical.

 

Anyway...

 

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Maia vs Condit is a fight I've been quite fascinated by ever since it was announced. It was supposed to be on the UFC 202 card but got moved to this one. Which, on the one hand I was disappointed about because it added to 202 and now we've got to wait longer. But on a positive note, now it's the headliner on FOX so it gets 5 rounds now. And I'm more down for that. This is the kind of fight that I think needs 5 rounds to play out.

 

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Demian Maia is a scary man. And a completely different kind of scary than the fighters we've been conditioned to think of as scary. He doesn't go around trying to intimidate people like Mike Tyson did in the 80s and 90s, or like Wanderlei Silva did in Pride. He doesn't knock people unconscious like Mark Hunt or prime Chuck Liddell. He doesn't dazzle you with flashy techniques like Jon Jones. He won't verbally savage you like Conor McGregor. He isn't built like a Brock shithouse, covered in tattoos or nicknamed something well hard like 'Pitbull'.

 

What he will do is smile, shake your hand then the bell rings and he will take you down and do whatever he wants. If he wants to pass your guard, good luck stopping him. If he wants to mount, good luck surviving. If by that point he feels like choking you, it's probably already too late. Basically, if Demian Maia wanted to fuck any of us, there's not a lot we could do to stop him.

 

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That's Mr Maia twisting Rick Story's head off in 2012. I honestly would rather be knocked out.

 

The problem is, Maia goes through hot and cold spells like almost no other fighter in MMA. When he's on, I've said before, I don't think there's many men walking the planet who beat him. Especially at 170. But, historically, he'll look like a world beater for a few fights then he'll go off the boil for a bit. It's weird. I don't know if it's just a case of him lacking killer instinct. He's always seemed like genuinely one of the nicest people in the sport. He hasn't got a nickname but if he did it should probably be 'The Gentleman' or something. Demian 'The Gentleman' Maia. But then there are times, like the above Rick Story example, where he'll get a bit vicious. If you could give Maia just a touch of Rousimar Palhares' mean streak (and let's be honest, Palhares has mean streak going spare), that's your world champion right there.

 

At the moment though, he's on a hot streak. He's won his last 5 fights in a row. He hasn't lost since the Rory MacDonald fight over 2 years ago, and he was dominating that early on as well. Since then he's rebuilt himself by beating Alexander Yakovlev and Ryan LaFlare on points. Then he schooled and submitted rising contender Neil Magny with ease. Then he utterly dominated fellow grappling whizz Gunnar Nelson, which was a real eye opener (especially for Gunnar) on the levels of grappling. Then in his last fight he totally shut down and submitted Matt Brown.

 

When he's on this form and he dances with what brung him, I don't think there's anyone in the current UFC welterweight division who can hang with him in that kind of fight.

 

But...

 

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If there's a way, Carlos Condit might just find it. Condit is a beast. There's no questioning this fucker's mean streak. And he's the type of fighter who tries to finish you wherever the fight goes. If you stand with him he's got dangerous striking from every limb and angle. And even if you land shots on him, his chin is granite. If you initiate the grappling you have to kind of pick your poison as well. If Condit ends up on top, he'll dice you up with elbows like he did to Rory Mac. Or he'll just batter you until you leave a submission open. If you take him down and you're on top, which has really been the only way to really beat him, that's no picnic either. He never stops attacking from the bottom. He'll cut you to ribbons with elbows and he's constantly looking for submissions off his back.

 

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'Twas the second night of January when we last saw Condit. And just 2 days into 2016, Condit and Lawler set the bar for the Fight Of The Year discussion right then. They basically went out there and said to every other fighter on the roster 'Follow that, you bastards'. Eight months later, it's still the FOTY to me. And the 5th round was one of the most exciting and dramatic rounds I've ever seen.

 

But in the end, Condit came up short. It was a razor close decision and many had Condit winning, but Lawler walked away with the belt. A lot of people were calling for an immediate rematch and, although I'm not a fan of immediate rematches, this was one where I felt it would've been the right call.

 

But whatever, we've got Maia vs Condit now. And I really don't know how it goes. If this were still happening at 202 it'd have been a 3 rounder. I think that would've favoured Maia because he could really push the pace and use his suffocating grappling to overwhelm Condit. But changing this to a 5 rounder makes it more interesting to me because Condit's the kind of fighter who is always in the fight right to the last bell and he gets stronger as the fight goes on. Whereas Maia can get sloppy later in fights if he's gone all out early. Just adds another layer to an already tremendous clash of styles.

 

I'm leaning towards a Maia decision. Or maybe even a submission. But if Condit gets through the first 3 rounds I think his chances go up in the 'championship rounds'.

 

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Pettis vs Oliveira should be a good one. 18 months ago I'd be jizzing all over this one and hyping it up as something special. The reason I'm saying it 'should' be good now is because I just don't know what we're getting with Anthony Pettis anymore.

 

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Remember that guy? The UFC champion. On the fucking Wheaties box with the belt. He was beating top fighters like Cerrone, Melendez and Bendo with style. He had a good look, a flashy fighting style, a sympathetic backstory with his dad getting killed etc. He was starting to get the old 'Matrix/Ninja' hyperbole heaped on him like Anderson Silva used to get in his prime. People were talking about superfights with Aldo and McGregor.

 

Then it all went to shit and he lost 3 fights in a row. First he lost his title to Rafael Dos Anjos and got absolutely spanked for 5 rounds in the process. Then he got shut down and smothered in a frustrating decision loss to Eddie Alvarez. Then he was matched with a striker in Edson Barboza, and he got outstruck and lost that as well.

 

Granted Dos Anjos, Alvarez and Barboza are elite. Dos Anjos is the former champ, Alvarez is the current champ and Barboza is on his way to challenging for the title himself. No shame in losing to any of those guys. But 3 losses in a row is still 3 losses in a row. Pettis has gone from 'future superstar' to a 'where is he now?' in record time. It wasn't just that he lost, it's that he himself looked lost. It was one thing him losing to Eddie Alvarez the way he did. Alvarez knew the blueprint to beat Pettis was to stifle his game by sticking to him like glue. But the Barboza fight was telling. Barboza is a killer striker, he might well have got the better of Pettis regardless. But Pettis just looked like a fighter who had lost confidence in himself big time.

 

Now he's dropping to 145 and this is his debut at the weight. And Charles Oliveira is no gimme fight for a debut in a new weight class. Oliveira has really slick BJJ, very good Muay Thai and he's lanky and creative with it. He has been known to crumble under heavy strikes so, on paper, you'd think Pettis should fancy this but I just don't know with him these days. Oliveira is clearly a step down from the guys Pettis lost to. I think he should win. But if he comes out looking lost at sea again I wouldn't be shocked if Oliveira outworks him.

 

Pettis has to win this. They're not going to sack him if he loses but you really don't want to be fucking up your fresh start in a new division if you ever plan on getting to the top again.

 

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VanZant vs Rawlings is probably going to be non-stop and all kinds of fun to watch. Paige is one of those fighters who never stops moving and attacking. And Rawlings is the type who will welcome that and meet her head on.

 

VanZant is coming off a bad loss though...

 

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She got battered to fuck and submitted by Rose Namajunas last December. It was brutal. She's only 22 so the loss has far from finished her. She's 6-2 in MMA now, 3-1 in the UFC. But she showed promise in her 3 UFC wins and she showed real heart and toughness in the loss to Namajunas. She's got the ingredients to be a successful fighter, the looks and personality to be a big star and she has time on her side. Providing she doesn't get distracted by other things or offers outside the cage, she should be able to bounce back.

 

Rawlings is 7-4 in MMA and 27 years old. She's tough and scrappy but I think PVZ should get by her. But you never know how a fighter is going to look coming off a beating like the one Thug Rose dished out to her.

 

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Miller vs Lauzon 2 was always going to be ***WAND'S ONE TO WATCH*** here. And it's the main reason I'm gutted I can't make it to this show. Even more than the main event.

 

Miller vs Lauzon 1 is one of my favourite fights ever. It was voted the 'MMA Fight Of The Year' in the 2012 UKFF Awards. And deservedly so.

 

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It's weird actually, this will mean nothing to you but I'll share it anyway. On 29th December 2012 when the first Miller vs Lauzon fight happened, I'd actually just got back from...Vancouver of all places! I'd proposed to my girlfriend in Vancouver over the Christmas, she said yes and ruined her life and then we had to fly back due to a death in the family. It was a right mix of emotions that weekend and I remember I didn't get around to watching UFC 155 until a day or two later. And Miller vs Lauzon was fucking ace. I know it's of no significance to any cunt else but, at a time when the UFC are running shows every other week all across the globe, it's a bit mad to me that the Miller vs Lauzon rematch has landed in fucking Vancouver. What's the chances?

 

So anyway, this is a fun rematch. They've both had their ups and downs since the first fight but they're both coming in off impressive first round wins at UFC 200. Miller TKO'd Takanori Gomi and Lauzon TKO'd Diego Sanchez that fateful night of the custard yellow canvas.

 

Like I said, I'm really not fussed about the prelims. I like Sam Alvey. There. That's the extent of my enthusiasm. That's all I can muster up. But that main card is worth getting excited about.

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What a fight the main event could be. It's one of those fights that only further highlights how many Welterweights can beat up your Dad. Both men are definitely championship material, but it's a division with such high standards that either man may never get another chance. Condit seemingly always comes up short when the proper belt is on the line (Interm belt, do one) and Maia seemingly being blacklisted from a title shot for years after he and Silva basically killed the chance of any future UAE cards with their nothing main event. Condit has already talked about retiring soon if he can't get it done and Maia is 38.

I'm happy seeing either man do well, but I hope Maia gets another chance before he packs it in. It's sort of mad that a guy as skilled as Maia has only had the one chance.

 

Plus, I really really want to see Maia v Wonderboy really soon.

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Gone Maia by decision, Pettis by KO and Lauzon by decision.

 

Really unsure on all three though. Maia vs Condit and Lauzon vs Miller 2 would be close to 50/50 anyway. But I'd have been fairly confident picking Pettis over Oliveira a year ago, now though I don't have a clue how Pettis is going to look. Oliveira is good but Pettis has the tools to smash him IMO. But if he's as gunshy as he's looked recently then it won't matter how talented he is if he can't pull the trigger. Really interesting fight.

 

Plus it's Pettis' first time at 145. I think it speaks volumes about how much Pettis' stock has dropped in the eyes of MMA fans that he's dropping to featherweight, arguably the most exciting division in the sport at the moment, and nobody is even talking about it. If Pettis can rebound here and go on a bit of a run at 145 there's potential for some amazing fights with the likes of Max Holloway, Dennis Bermudez, Frankie Edgar, Cub Swanson etc. Not to mention we could finally see that Pettis vs Aldo fight that was signed, sealed but unfortunately not delivered in 2013. Yeah it's lost a lot of its shine now and it's no longer a 'Superfight' but Pettis vs Aldo is still a fight I'd love to see.

 

Hopefully Pettis can get something done at 145. He's still got that freakish talent in there. It's like he's just lost his 'eye of the tiger' or something.

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Gone Maia by decision, Pettis by KO and Lauzon by decision.

 

Really unsure on all three though. Maia vs Condit and Lauzon vs Miller 2 would be close to 50/50 anyway. But I'd have been fairly confident picking Pettis over Oliveira a year ago, now though I don't have a clue how Pettis is going to look. Oliveira is good but Pettis has the tools to smash him IMO. But if he's as gunshy as he's looked recently then it won't matter how talented he is if he can't pull the trigger. Really interesting fight.

 

Plus it's Pettis' first time at 145. I think it speaks volumes about how much Pettis' stock has dropped in the eyes of MMA fans that he's dropping to featherweight, arguably the most exciting division in the sport at the moment, and nobody is even talking about it. If Pettis can rebound here and go on a bit of a run at 145 there's potential for some amazing fights with the likes of Max Holloway, Dennis Bermudez, Frankie Edgar, Cub Swanson etc. Not to mention we could finally see that Pettis vs Aldo fight that was signed, sealed but unfortunately not delivered in 2013. Yeah it's lost a lot of its shine now and it's no longer a 'Superfight' but Pettis vs Aldo is still a fight I'd love to see.

 

Hopefully Pettis can get something done at 145. He's still got that freakish talent in there. It's like he's just lost his 'eye of the tiger' or something.

 

The mad thing here is that despite the mouthwatering fights at 145 you've listed for Pettis, McGregor is a complete afterthought. Despite being on paper, an absolute dream fight.

 

He's never going back is he?

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I absolutely love Maia. One of my favourites to watch. But I really can't see him beating Condit. I would honestly be surprised

Why's that?

 

If there's a chink in Condit's armour, it's always been his takedown defence. I guess that's partly because he's so comfortable off his back that he's not bothered if he's taken down. But it's kind of been his undoing in some crucial fights. GSP beat him that way and Johny Hendricks squeaked a decision over him by maintaining just enough top control to take a decision as well. It's pretty much been the only way to beat him. Aside from the Lawler fight, and that was arguably Condit's as well.

 

I know Condit's got the advantage standing so he's a very dangerous fight for Maia, no doubt. Maia will have to be very careful about how he comes in to grapple. But he didn't have much trouble avoiding Matt Brown's strikes. Or Gunnar Nelson's tricky karate style standup. Or Rick Story's heavy hands.

 

If Maia can get into a clinch position with Condit and can grab a good grip on him, I can't see Condit stopping Maia taking him down. For a BJJ guy, Maia's takedowns are exceptional. He seems deceptively strong and his timing and technique on his takedowns and trips and stuff is brilliant. I'll never forget him just schooling Jon Fitch, bulldozing Rick Story and that fucking throw he did on Chael Sonnen....

 

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And they were strong wrestlers.

 

I think this is a really, really tough matchup style-wise for Condit. Maia, at 38, is in maybe the best form of his career. He's on a good winning streak and he's got momentum and confidence behind him. Condit is a great fighter but it was only a few months ago he was toying with the idea of retirement. Who knows where his head's at?

 

I wouldn't be shocked if Condit won. It's one of those fights where I could see a number of realistic ways it ends. But I wouldn't be so sure Condit takes this one. It could be a long frustrating fight for him if Maia goes full on BJJ beast mode like I expect.

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I agree TD's are his weakness and if a round continues you would expect Maia to get him down. Usually Maia will get in close to execute his TD's with a resonable amount of trips. He doesn't strike me as particuarly explosive going in though and I think Condit will catch him quite honestly.

 

I will qualify this with I dont Maia will stop him on the ground as Condit is very capable (if he stays suitably sensible off his back) and don't think Maia will avoid a severe strike over 5 rounds.

 

I will be absolutely 100% be cheering for Maia though

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Yeah, Maia's not what you'd call explosive. He's not that fast either. But he's very effective at what he does. I think he went through a spell where he was trying to be more of an all-rounder as an MMA fighter and it didn't really suit him. He's a BJJ specialist in MMA and he seems content with that these days.

 

What you also have to factor in is that a huge part of Condit's game is his kicks. And will he be able to do that so much with a guy like Maia who's looking to take him down? Just the threat of Maia's grappling could effect the way Condit strikes.

 

Also, if/when he's taken down I don't think Condit's going to be able to be as attacking off his back as he usually is. The more he tries to attack from the bottom, the more openings it'll leave for Maia to catch him in a submission.

 

It's a proper tough fight for Condit, I reckon. He's really going to have to make the most of his opportunities in the striking whenever he gets them. He might just have to go wild with headkicks and flying knees and things like that. Because I can't see Maia pissing about on the feet long. Condit might have a very short window at the start of each round to do his damage before Maia takes him down or ties him up in a clinch.

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Maia's one of my favourite fighters - the guy's a boa constrictor in human form. Mesmerising style. Definitely going to be rooting for him, although I do enjoy Condit's style too.

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Sam Alvey had a terrible fight back in June with Elias Theodoru. Sapped any interest I have in seeing him fight in the future, even though his last fight was a bit better, it's going to take a string of finishes or fights of the night for me to get excited about seeing Sam Alvey's name on a card. And I don't know many other names on the prelims so it's all about the main card.

 

Predicting finishes in the top three fights. I think Maia will be at his suffocating best on the ground and find an opening for a sub (thinking late in the fight though), Pettis will TKO Oliveira- despite Pettis' recent form, Du Bronx has a glass jaw. And of the vets Lauzon and Miller, I believe Lauzon has more in the tank, and will blitz Miller for either a TKO or sub.

 

I see the VanZant fight being a fun three rounder. As pretty as she is, she fights like an animal, so tough and scrappy. Bec Rawlings is the one Aussie fighter I really can't get behind, she just seems really unlikable for some reason.

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