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UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz


wandshogun09

Who wins and how?  

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As the days are counting down I'm getting more and more excited for this one.

McGregor is a money making machine man i re-watched the press conference where he was a little late and this lad can hype fights in his fucking sleep. He verbally batters Dos Anjos but he does it with intelligence and confidence, What i also took from it is Connor has studied Dos Anjos thoroughly because he was breaking down his fighting style and previous fights with ease.

 

I cannot see this going any other way than connor walking out with 2 belts and heading to ufc 200 as a legend in the making

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To be honest, I'd say that last statement of yours has fully demonstrated Conor's promotional ability. It's so easy to get carried away with his announcements.

 

I honestly don't think it's going to be that easy. As David has pointed out, RDA's ground game is not to be sniffed at; if anything, it's something Conor should see as a real threat, because chances are that, if he can't stuff RDA's takedowns, he's going to lose. Furthermore, RDA demonstrated in the Pettis match that his fight IQ is impressive too - sure, Conor's broken down his game, but who's to say Dos Anjos hasn't got Conor pegged?

 

I'm genuinely torn on this one; I like that RDA has slogged his guts out to become one of the best in the sport, and really has earned his way there. On the other hand, Conor's just so impressive, I don't want to see him de-railed from becoming possibly the biggest star MMA has ever had, full-stop - especially as it's given him the power to give Zuffa the headaches they so richly deserve.

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I wonder where he'll eventually settle if he actually does win three titles in three divisions. I'm thinking lightweight is probably the optimum weight class for him. There's no way the UFC will want to have three titles on one guy, long term. It'd be cool to say a guy became the first man to hold three titles at once but after that initial accomplishment it gets messy. As active as Conor is, even he would struggle to defend three titles as much as they'd need to be defended, plus keep bouncing up and down in weight.

 

That's the worry for me. Roy Jones was looking invincible in the 90s until he started pissing about with his weight. He went up to heavyweight and then when he dropped back down to middleweight he never was the same. Not saying that'll happen here but it can't be good to fight in three weight classes in a short space of time.

 

All pointless really anyway for now. He's got enough on his plate with RDA, never mind looking ahead to 170.

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As David has pointed out, RDA's ground game is not to be sniffed at; if anything, it's something Conor should see as a real threat, because chances are that, if he can't stuff RDA's takedowns, he's going to lose. 

 

I actually think that RDA's grappling game is incredibly underrated by most. Outwith Damian Maia and Jacare I struggle to think of a more knowledgeable and skilled BJJ practitioner in the UFC at the moment than Dos Anjos.

 

For example, Maia is widely considered the greatest grappler in the sport, and as a 4th degree black belt in BJJ under Fabio Gurgel few would argue, but Dos Anjos is a 3rd degree black belt under the Gracie Barra system in Brazil.

 

I see John Kavanagh has said that if the fight hits the floor Conor will be comfortable, whilst RDA will become a "panicked grappler".

 

He may be right, but I fail to see how a BJJ brown belt with no amateur wrestling credentials can possibly do anything other than survive and attempt to get back to his feet when faced with a grappling exchange against someone of RDA's level.

 

It's going to be interesting.

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As David has pointed out, RDA's ground game is not to be sniffed at; if anything, it's something Conor should see as a real threat, because chances are that, if he can't stuff RDA's takedowns, he's going to lose.

I actually think that RDA's grappling game is incredibly underrated by most. Outwith Damian Maia and Jacare I struggle to think of a more knowledgeable and skilled BJJ practitioner in the UFC at the moment than Dos Anjos.

Werdum, perhaps?

 

I see John Kavanagh has said that if the fight hits the floor Conor will be comfortable, whilst RDA will become a "panicked grappler".

 

He may be right, but I fail to see how a BJJ brown belt with no amateur wrestling credentials can possibly do anything other than survive and attempt to get back to his feet when faced with a grappling exchange against someone of RDA's level.

 

It's going to be interesting.

To be honest, I think that's just Kavanagh working with McGregor in the promotional side of things. I don't think a guy that intelligent would genuinely believe it. If you look at the converse, he can't really be seen to be talking up any weaknesses in his fighter's game, and especially not when McGregor's promotional theme almost always hinges on him claiming to be scarily unstoppable.

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I see John Kavanagh has said that if the fight hits the floor Conor will be comfortable, whilst RDA will become a "panicked grappler".

 

He may be right, but I fail to see how a BJJ brown belt with no amateur wrestling credentials can possibly do anything other than survive and attempt to get back to his feet when faced with a grappling exchange against someone of RDA's level.

 

It's going to be interesting.

Yeah, Kavanagh can't believe that. To just 'survive' is the best case scenario for McGregor if this one hits the ground. That's the one area of this fight where one guy has a clear advantage, and that's RDA on the ground. That's not a knock on McGregor, I'm sure he's capable on the ground, but there's probably only a small handful of guys on the planet who could actually trouble RDA in a grappling battle. Most of them aren't in MMA, only a couple of them are in the UFC and there's only one of them (Nurmagomedov) in the same division. Whatever Kavanagh says, they'll want to avoid this fight going to the ground as much they can.

 

There's just different levels in grappling and RDA is in an elite group. You can be a good or even a great MMA grappler and still get shown up by guys on that level. You only have to go back to December and look at the Demian Maia vs Gunnar Nelson fight for a recent example. Gunnar is a fantastic grappler but he could do nothing but hang on and survive against Maia. He had a genuine look of shock on his face at times, that Maia was able to do the things he was doing to him. You could tell it was alien to Gunnar to feel pretty much helpless in the grappling like that. Maia pulled rank on him big-time as far as grappling goes. Real eye opener for Gunni. If Dos Anjos can make this a grappling heavy fight, Conor's almost certainly going to struggle. On the feet, I'd favour McGregor but fuck knows.

 

EDIT - Just re-read the 'panicked grappler' quote. I don't think Kavanagh meant RDA would be panicked if it his the ground. The way I read it, he thinks RDA won't like the initial exchanges on the feet and will become a 'panicked grappler' and become desperate to get the fight to the floor.

 

Still, the above applies as far as RDA's grappling goes. I can't wait to see how it all goes down.

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Brandon Thatch/Siyar Bahadurzada is now on this card, it's been moved from the Fight Night show due to Thatch being unable to file papers in time or some shit. Good PPV opener if that's where it ends up!

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Yeah, updated the OP for that already. Weakens that Cerrone vs Oliveira card next week but this needed a bit more depth anyway. They haven't released the official bout order yet but I'm hoping Thatch vs Siyar gets at least an FS1 spot, if not PPV. They've both dropped right off after strong starts and hype but I think it'll be a great fight.

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