UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz

[herbie747]

I thought that promo was a bit shit! The voiceover was really bad.

[wandshogun09]

We didn't even get a staredown at the weigh in. To be honest though, I'm just glad everyone got between them and prevented something stupid happening. All it would've taken would be for someone to clash heads during a scuffle and the fight could've been off.

 

 

McGregor vs Diaz can't not be brilliant really, can it? Even if they barely throw a punch, just watching them have an in cage taunt-off and talking shit to each other would be better than half the fights on most cards. I think the action will be good though. Jim mentioned a few pages back that I seemed confident McGregor wins this. I am but that means fuck all. I was absolutely certain that Anderson Silva was going to crush Michael Bisping last week as well. And Rousey vs Holm was nothing more than a Rousey squash match going in in my head. You can't call me Mystic Wand, 'cause I'm useless at predicting these tings.

 

I've got McGregor by KO. I get what people are saying about Nate's reach and lankiness. I can see it playing its part and maybe making McGregor's performance not look as impressive as some of his other fights. Like I mentioned before, if you look at the Holloway fight McGregor looked to be having a slightly harder time timing his shots (even before the injury) and I think Holloway's lanky frame might've been partly the reason for that. I can see it being a bit of a messy looking fight. But ultimately, Nate is just too open in the striking, IMO, for someone as sharp and accurate as McGregor not to exploit. Even with a full camp I wouldn't like Nate's chances in this one. With two weeks notice, I'd be very surprised if he pulled this off.

 

The combination of going up in weight, Diaz's toughness and his long frame is making me think it'll go longer than most of McGregor's fights. But in the end I think McGregor stops him within two or three rounds tops.

 

 

Holm vs Tate is an interesting one. I've been a bit surprised how many people I've seen picking Tate to win. But then again, I've counted her out a few times in the past and she's proven me wrong. Despite Holm's first two UFC fights being a bit cack, her dominance over Rousey was something else. The striking is what everyone focused on in the fallout but I stand by my point that it was Holm's defensive grappling that was the main key to her success in that fight. Without her clinch defence she'd have been thrown around before she even got many strikes off. And she also escaped the armbar. While I get peoples' points in saying Tate will be more patient, and I agree, that alone doesn't win her the fight. Patience is all well and good but she most likely can't hang with Holm in the striking so she's probably going to be very predictable in her approach - takedown, takedown, takedown. And her being patient probably makes Holm's job easier because she'll be able to dance around Tate and time her strikes methodically like she likes to do.

 

I've seen Miesha this week questioning Holm's chin which I found interesting. She might've seen something or she might be reading too much into something. Either way, it makes me think Miesha might fancy her chances standing with Holm, which probably won't end well for her.

 

I've got Holm by KO/TKO in the championship rounds. Can see it going long because of Miesha's toughness and it'll probably be a lot different of a fight than Holm vs Rousey because Tate's not likely to be bullrushing into punches all night. It might be a bit of a slow boring fight really. If Tate can't drag her into a gruelling scrappy fight, I can see it looking a bit like Holm's fights with Pennington and Reneau. But I think Holm catches her in the end. I think she'll soften her up in the early rounds and come on strong late for a finish. Tate will be game but I'm struggling to see how she wins this other than a five round takedownfest. And I don't think she can do that to Holm for long enough spells to take a decision.

 

 

Villante vs Latifi should be decent. Usually enjoy watching both of these guys. Both like to throw bombs so I can see this one ending within a round, to be honest. Bit of a coin flip really but I'll go with Latifi by KO. Villante got put out by Tom Lawlor last time out and, despite having heart, I think his chin mightn't hold up to Some Fucker's power. Chuffed to see Latifi make the PPV main card, by the way. Should be a fun mid-card fight.

 

 

 

'The Notorious' Tom Lawlor! Fuck Reebok trying to sap the fun out of everything. Lawlor always finds a way to brighten up these run of the mill weigh ins. I hope he wins this fight. Corey Anderson bores me senseless. He's dull as fuck. He had a strong performance in the TUF finals a while back, then has proceeded to shit fights up ever since. He's like a black Ryan Bader to me. He shouldn't even get to be black. He should be beige he's so dull. Lawlor is anything but beige. I'd love to see Lawlor score another big KO here after the awesome one punch of doom against Villante last July.

 

My prediction is Tom McLawlor by 13 second KO! Not really. Sadly I'm fully expecting Anderson by decision in a steaming turd of a fight.

 

 

Nunes vs Shevchenko completes the main card. For all the talk of Holm vs Tate, this is the better women's fight on this card for me. It should be getting talked about more but it's understandably been overshadowed on this card. Nunes is a fucking beast. And this Shevchenko has a ridiculous striking pedigree and even holds a win over Joanna Jedrzejczyk in kickboxing. She's the real deal as far as striking goes. And her grappling didn't look too shabby against Sarah Kaufman in her UFC debut either. And that was on short notice. Really looking forward to seeing what she can do with a full camp.

 

I really like this fight. If Shevchenko wins you've got a new contender in the mix. If Nunes wins, I can see her getting the title shot against Holm/Tate in the summer. I heard the other day that Rousey is thinking of not fighting until around November now. If that's true then I definitely think we'll be seeing another title fight at 135 before Ronda returns.

 

I'm thinking Shevchenko by decision actually. She's unproven on the big stage but I've got a gut feeling she might be someone to keep an eye on. Nunes is a killer though, so I won't be at all shocked if she wins. Just got a good feeling about Shevchenko.

 

So yeah, predictions for this one...

 

McGregor by KO/TKO

Holm by KO/TKO

Latifi by KO/TKO

Anderson by decision

Shevchenko by decision

Thatch by decision

Silva by submission

Miranda by KO/TKO

Skelly by decision

Miller by decision (but the judges will probably score it for Sanchez anyway)

Salas by decision

Ishihara by KO/TKO

[d-d-d-dAz]

I'm officially concerned.

 

Though, the way Nate KEEPS talking about the possibility of losing makes me think he's not as confident in his abilities as I am.

 

Im giving up on predictions for this one.

 

Fuck it. Score draw.

 

I've no earthly idea how to post pictures on my phone but the Conor before/after pick here is fucking ridiculous;

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.mmamania.com/platform/amp/2016/3/4/11163132/ufc-196-side-by-side-pic-conor-mcgregor-before-after-going-up-170-from-145-mma#

[wandshogun09]

Great minds! I was just coming in here to post that.

 

 

With the short hair and the added bulk, he's starting to look like a mini Triple H.

[Keith Houchen]

HHH would never have godawful tattoos like that.

[wandshogun09]

Oh yeah, minus the absolutely rancid tattoos of course. It was when McGregor first walked onto the stage that he reminded me of Triple H. And he had a shirt on then so none of that shit was on display.

 

While I'm making wrestler comparisons, Nate flexing on the scales like he was 90s Lex Luger looked ridiculous.

[David]

I'm seeing a lot of chat online about how Diaz isn't saying much in the build up to this fight, and seemingly isn't as up for the verbals, and I'm wondering if people are confusing him for Nick?

 

Nate was always the more calm, chilled out and reasonable of the two in my opinion, with Nick being the loose cannon who could lose his shit at any given time.

[jimufctna24]

Nate was always the more calm, chilled out and reasonable of the two in my opinion, with Nick being the loose cannon who could lose his shit at any given time.

I'm not sure if that's the case.

 

Nate played a huge role in the Strikeforce brawl, and the post-fight ruckus with K.J Noons's camp in Elite XC. He also looked on the verge of coming to blows with fellow contestants on TUF 5 a few times, and had to be held back from attacking that comedian who plays a BJJ instructor (the guy who followed Rogan to his car on Youtube). 

 

If he's not as bad as Nick, he's not far off. 

[wandshogun09]

I'm not reading much into Nate's demeanour myself. In interviews and stuff he seems quite chilled out and happy. I'm fairly sure, unless I'm remembering wrong, that he was in the same kind of mood the week of the Michael Johnson fight as well, which was one of his better career performances. So you can't always tell with Nate. He's quick to lose his temper in certain situations, but on the whole, he's fought well when he's came in relaxed and in a good mood in the past. Can't remember what he was like going into the Cerrone fight (only thing I recall of the build up to that was him knocking Cerrone's hat off at the press conference). Think he was in decent spirits heading into the third Maynard fight but Maynard's shot regardless.

 

I'm about as big a McGregor fan as you'll find but it seems like people look for things that aren't there sometimes with his opponents, saying they're scared, faking injuries, on steroids etc. There was a guy at work this week telling me RDA had shat himself and pulled out with a "bruised foot". This guy is usually pretty switched on but he's swallowed McGregor's lines and completely believes them for some reason. I was saying RDA had actually broken his foot and he was not having it. Conor's got such a way of framing the narrative around his fights that a lot of people just guzzle down the old Kool Aid. RDA stood to make life changing money in this fight. If he could fight, he'd have fought. But he's not going in there on one foot, is he? To be an MMA fighter in the higher end of the UFC, you're not going to find many of them who are actually scared of any other fighter. Even if they're mediocre themselves they're delusional like Brendan Schaub was and think they can beat anyone.

 

In other McGregor news, Dana mentioned again the other day in an interview that if McGregor wins tonight and wants a title shot against Lawler, he'd be on board with that. Lawler vs McGregor at UFC 200 is looking more likely by the day! There's just this Nate Diaz shaped banana skin to swerve around now.

[David]

 

Nate was always the more calm, chilled out and reasonable of the two in my opinion, with Nick being the loose cannon who could lose his shit at any given time.

I'm not sure if that's the case.

 

Nate played a huge role in the Strikeforce brawl, and the post-fight ruckus with K.J Noons's camp in Elite XC. He also looked on the verge of coming to blows with fellow contestants on TUF 5 a few times, and had to be held back from attacking that comedian who plays a BJJ instructor (the guy who followed Rogan to his car on Youtube). 

 

If he's not as bad as Nick, he's not far off. 

 

 

Yeah, I know he's not a saint, but I think Nick was always the guy who was more vocal and sharper at press conferences is what I'm saying. Nate has never really been given the platform to do much talking, and when he has he's always seemed a bit more affable than Nick.

 

I remember Nick's press duties in the build to the GSP fight, and you could cut the tension with a knife a lot of the time. Nate doesn't have that edge to him.

[METAL ON METAL]

After the weigh-in, I'm not sure how on board I am anymore with a potential Lawler/McGregor fight. Conor looked great but it just showed how tiny he would look next to Lawler - I definitely think it'd be a step too far and at this stage as a fan (and someone who wants this sport to continue to grow) I'd hate to see him get stopped. There's a fucking MASSIVE difference between fighting Nate Diaz to going in with a killer like Lawler who can destroy even the strongest of chins.

 

 

Also, is it just me fully expecting another Strikeforce: Nashville situation after the fight? Especially if Conor finishes Nate. That Cesar Gracie team are absolute scumbags, nothing would surprise me with them.

[d-d-d-dAz]

I have to say, whilst I think stylistically Conor/Lawler match up well for Conor, I think Lawler wins by eating him.

 

Looking at Conor yesterday, I couldn't help but think he only looks massive only compared to himself before. Lawler, at 195 come fight night, would fucking dwarf him.

 

Haha, snap MOM.

[jimufctna24]

David - Fair point. Nick does have an angrier demeanour to him. 

 

Also, is it just me fully expecting another Strikeforce: Nashville situation after the fight? Especially if Conor finishes Nate. 

It's a probability if he does this again.

 

[BigJag]

Can't see it happening. The UFC are way to conscious of allowing any post match brawl scenarios. The last time anything like that happened was at the end of a Cabbage Corrriera v Tank Abbot fight. Liddel and others seemed to be able to stop things escalating that night.

[David]

After the weigh-in, I'm not sure how on board I am anymore with a potential Lawler/McGregor fight. Conor looked great but it just showed how tiny he would look next to Lawler - I definitely think it'd be a step too far and at this stage as a fan (and someone who wants this sport to continue to grow) I'd hate to see him get stopped. There's a fucking MASSIVE difference between fighting Nate Diaz to going in with a killer like Lawler who can destroy even the strongest of chins.

 

We'll get a lot of answers tonight I think. If McGregor has issues putting away a mid-level borderline lightweight/welterweight like Diaz then I don't fancy his chances much against any of the top five at welter. I talked about his chances against Lawler already, and after seeing the weigh-in I'm more convinced than ever that it's a step too far for him.

 

155lbs is is ideal weight if we're honest, and there's a whole load of great fights there for him. Getting smashed by Lawler isn't a risk worth taking.