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UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit


wandshogun09

Who wins and how?   

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Just watched the weigh in.

 

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Lawler vs Condit could be fucking fantastic. I don't want to jinx it but we could easily have a FOTY candidate here just two days into 2016 (ha, Ebb beat me to it). At the very least it'll be good, won't it? No way these two are going to shit the bed out there.

 

I've been about 50/50 on this fight ever since it was announced. They're both just so good and so dangerous it's a hard one to call. But the closer it's gotten I'm sort of swaying towards a Condit win. Like I said before, he's never really been bested in a striking match and this is most likely going to play out on the feet. Plus he hasn't taken as much damage as Lawler recently.

 

And I hope I'm wrong on this but I think Lawler might be carrying an injury :( Remember before Christmas there was a rumour going around that Lawler was injured and this fight was off? It fizzled out and everyone assumed it was a bullshit rumour. But I don't know. Looking at Lawler at the weigh in he was moving funny. And then right at the end of the weigh in video he's going down the steps by pushing himself up off the railings and sort of swinging down instead of walking down them. I might be reading way too much into it and making something of nothing, but the way he was moving it looked like he's got something wrong with his knee or something. The way he went down those stairs looked like he was trying not to bend his knees.

 

Condit by decision for me. Sounds mad picking a decision when you look at these two and their finishing rates but they're both so tough I have a hard time envisioning either getting finished.

 

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Miocic vs Arlovski should be a fun clash of heavies. Again, a hard one to predict. I haven't been as high on Miocic as most. I think he's good but I don't rate him as much as most seem to. And with Arlovski, as nice as it's been to see his rebirth in the UFC over the last year or so, I'm always waiting for this resurgence to come crashing to a halt. It seems to good to be true. I'd love to see Arlovski win this fight by KO and get that one last crack at the title. Even though I don't like his chances against Werdum or Cain, it'd be a cool moment to see him back in that UFC title mix again after all this time and his ups and downs.

 

I think Arlovski is the better pure striker of the two. But he's got so many miles on the clock. Usually when Miocic is having a tough time on the feet he goes for the takedown. But Arlovski's takedown defence has always been pretty solid. And Stipe isn't KO proof either, if Struve knocked him out, Arlovski definitely can. Fuck knows?

 

I'll go with Miocic by KO/TKO. I don't have much confidence in Arlovski's chin (even though he's held up fine in recent fights). Just a gut feeling really but I think Miocic is going to catch him. Hope I'm wrong though.

 

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Larkin vs Tumenov is a fight I'm a bit giddy about. Main event aside, this is the fight I'm most intrigued by on the whole card. Larkin has some of the best technical striking in the 170 division. He's got a win over Robbie Lawler. He's a wicked striker, his kicks are great. I'd rate him as one of the best kickers in the UFC, I think I'd only have Barboza and Aldo higher on that list. Maybe Cerrone too. So he's in good company. And Tumenov is a gritty, hard as fuck Russian with nasty boxing and punching power. He walked down and destroyed Alan Jouban in his last fight within a round. And Jouban's tough as fuck.

 

It's a great fight this. They're so different in their styles. Whereas Larkin's striking is beautiful to watch, there's absolutely nothing pretty about Tumenov's fighting style. He just stalks you and tries to knock your face off.

 

Bit of a shot in the dark but I'll have Tumenov by KO/TKO.

 

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Brandao vs Ortega is another fight I can't see failing to be a crowd pleaser. Both are non-stop offence. Brandao only has one pace. He just goes nuts until he gasses. Not the wisest tactics but it's usually exciting to watch. And Ortega quickly became a 'must see' fighter for me after his barnburner with Thiago Tavares last June. He's fucking brilliant to watch. Awesome grappling and doesn't mind getting into a war on the feet either.

 

Kind of hard to call because I like Ortega to win if he can weather Brandao's initial onslaught of fury. But while Ortega is more of a BJJ guy, Brandao is a BJJ black belt himself so it won't be easy to catch him on the ground.

 

Fuck it. Ortega by submission after Brandao goes berserk and gasses.

 

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Justine Kish looks like a starved Josh Barnett. Seriously she looked terrible at the weigh in. Completely sucked in and moving at a snail's pace. I've been interested in seeing her fight ever since she was on TUF 20. But she never got to fight on the show because she injured her knee. She's got a serious striking background, but man, she looked at death's door weighing in.

 

Nina Ansaroff via not killing herself cutting weight.

 

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Fuck Fight Pass.

 

Poirier vs Duffy should be a really good fight. Poirier has looked good since the loss to McGregor. And the move up to lightweight seems to have served him well. This is definitely Duffy's biggest test to date. Also interesting that he's fighting a former McGregor victim. So his performance here is going to be scrutinised and compared to McGregor's utter demolition of Pea Head, fairly or not.

 

Duffy by KO/TKO. I don't think he'll do it as quickly as McGregor did but I think he'll get there at some point. He's the more polished striker IMO, and if it goes to the ground he's no novice there either. Got a feeling Poirier is going to hate Ireland after tonight. The Paddy's are ruining his career.

 

Fuck Fight Pass.

 

Them are the fights I'm most arsed about. Well, not really bothered about Kish vs Ansaroff. Just wanted to mention the likeness to Josh Barnett. I'm a prick, I know.

 

So yeah;

 

Condit by decision.

Miocic by KO/TKO.

Tumenov by KO/TKO.

Ortega by submission.

Trujillo by KO/TKO.

McDonald by KO/TKO.

Noke by decision.

Ansaroff by decision.

Holtzman by decision.

Duffy by KO/TKO.

Soto by decision.

Westcott by decision.

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i've gone for Condit in my acca. I went for this:

 

Condit, Miocic, Soto, McDonald, Trujilo.

 

Another thing i noticed at the weigh-in wand. might be something out of nothing, but as Lawler weighed-in, Mike Dolce leaned in to spectate and grinned at Lawler. Lawler made a gesture with his hand then posed after the announcement but it didn't look he was happy. Maybe they were expecting Lawler to struggle on the scale?

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Yeah I noticed that. Seemed weird. I definitely think something's up with Lawler. Bollocks.

 

Did anyone catch the latest Rogan Face at the weigh in? This was his response to seeing Michinori Tanaka's cornerman and his weird hair...

 

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Rogan Face.

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quick reminder for anyone who's doing the Fantasy Picks through UFC.com, they've re-set the scores for tonight to start 2016 so get on there and get your picks in :)

 

i think the UKFF league has disappeared too? looks like you may need to create a new league to start the new year.

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Yeh they will, you can avoid them if you know what to click but there will likely be spoilers. It's very annoying.

 

Basically just go into Fight Pass and click the event page at the top of the page, that should take you to the videos of the prelims, weigh-in etc. The spoilers tend to pop up in the 'Trending Now' section.

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This is my first PPV since getting Virgin media / BT Sport on the go and just want to thank the usual crew, Wand, Bifkin, Ebb, Supes etc for making me feel like I actually know something about the modern UFC (Ain't watched in ages) and fighters styles. Hoping to join in with these topics from now on!

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Yeh they will, you can avoid them if you know what to click but there will likely be spoilers. It's very annoying.

 

Basically just go into Fight Pass and click the event page at the top of the page, that should take you to the videos of the prelims, weigh-in etc. The spoilers tend to pop up in the 'Trending Now' section.

Ah, that's annoying but hopefully your tips will do the trick :) thank you.

 

Would Duffy/Poirier likely be on around 12:30? May try and catch it live instead to be safe. Huge Lawler fan so would hate to catch the result before watching in the morning.

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Best 5th round in MMA history.

 

I'm not sure who deserved to get the nod. It centres on round 3 for me. 1 and 4 were clearly Condit, and I gave Lawler 2 due to the knockdown. I gave the 5th to Lawler as I felt he was within a whisker of finishing, and in essence won the fight (like he did against Hendricks in the 2nd fight, just less conclusive).

 

Round 3 was a case of what you like.

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