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UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum


wandshogun09

Who wins and how?  

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The UFC returns to Mexico on June 13th with the main event that was supposed to headline their Mexican debut show last November...

 

UFC_188_Velasquez_vs._Werdum_Poster.jpg

 

PPV MAIN CARD

Cain Velasquez vs Fabricio Werdum - Heavyweight Title

Gilbert Melendez vs Eddie Alvarez

Kelvin Gastelum vs Nate Marquardt

Yair Rodriguez vs Charles Rosa

Tecia Torres vs Angela Hill

 

FOX SPORTS 1 PRELIMS

Henry Cejudo vs Chico Camus

Efrain Escudero vs Drew Dober

Alejandro Perez vs Patrick Williams

Francisco Trevino vs Johnny Case

 

FIGHT PASS PRELIMS

Augusto Montano vs Cathal Pendred

Gabriel Benitez vs Clay Collard

 

Keep everything crossed this stays together. Because as it stands, I think that's a good card. It's an obvious level below UFC 187 but the top three fights there are excellent and there's some decent stuff below that. On paper at least, this looks stronger than the first Mexico show.

 

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Velasquez vs Werdum is one of those fights that seems like it's taken forever to happen. It's almost been as bad as Weidman vs Belfort for getting constantly pushed back. That fight happened though so there's hope for this one as well.

 

It's a great fight as well. When talk of a potential Cain vs Werdum fight first started my initial thought was that Werdum is absolutely fucked. I saw Cain as almost an unwinnable challenge for him to overcome. As time has gone on though, I think Werdum actually has a decent chance. He's been one of the most overlooked and underestimated fighters in the sport for years and keeps finding ways to prove everyone wrong. He really shouldn't be getting overlooked anymore with wins over Fedor, Nogueira, Hunt, Browne and Nelson on his record.

 

Plus there's the little factor of Cain's body falling apart. Cain was shelved for the whole of 2014 and by the time he steps into the cage on June 13th (if he makes it in one piece) it'll have been about 20 months since his last fight.

 

To be honest, it'll be refreshing to see Cain in there with someone new as well. You have to go all the way back to 2010 to find him fighting someone other than Dos Santos or Bigfoot. This is a completely fresh fight, opponent-wise and style-wise.

 

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I'm really looking forward to seeing how this one goes. Looking at them and assuming we get the Cain we're used to seeing, I'd still favour him. But Werdum could be a very tricky fight if he's on form. His standup is really good now. Just saying he's 'improved as a striker' doesn't cut it anymore, he's got legit striking skills now. Knocking out Mark Hunt with a flying knee? Yeah, your striking is fine. And while Cain has the wrestling, will he risk taking down Werdum, effectively putting himself in probably the most lethal guard in MMA?

 

Cain vs Werdum promo;

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&persist_app=1&v=VaDXiY5DS2Y

 

Very interesting fight in terms of how they match up, how they approach it and what tactics they try to use. And also to see how the crowd reacts. No doubt they'll be more pro-Cain but Werdum really won the Mexican fans over as well with his stint on TUF Latin America and during the build-up to the Hunt fight. They as good as adopted him as a Mexican fighter.

 

The co-main event is a fight that's been about five years in the making...

 

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Melendez vs Alvarez is a fight that people were talking about back in 2009/2010. Back when Melendez was the Strikeforce champion and Alvarez was the Bellator champion. They were pretty much seen as the consensus two best lightweights in the world outside the UFC. But they were never in the same organisation so the fight never happened. Didn't stop people talking about it though and at one point there was even talk of Scott Coker (Strikeforce president) and Bjorn Rebney (Bellator president) putting together a joint promotion to pit the two companies' top fighters against each other - and a potential Melendez vs Alvarez fight was the main talking point.

 

Here's Coker and Alvarez talking about it on Ariel Helwani's MMA Hour in 2010;

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&persist_app=1&v=P-Hd8WepOrQ

 

Unfortunately nothing came of it and everyone pretty much gave up on the fight happening.

 

Fast-forward five years and they're both under UFC contract and set to finally collide in Mexico. They're both coming off losses so they're coming in with something to prove and it's both guys' first time fighting in Mexico, which they both have Mexican blood in them. It's the perfect time and perfect place to do this fight, I reckon. The only way it could be improved would be if it was a five rounder but I'm just glad it's happening at all.

 

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I don't want to say Fight Of The Year because then it'll probably fall flat, but I'd be very surprised if a fight between Gilbert Melendez and Eddie Alvarez in Mexico City is anything short of a war.

 

Gastelum vs Marquardt should be good. Gastelum is a beast. And at just 23 years old he has all the potential in the world to become the next big breakout Mexican star. He's exciting, aggressive and is starting to get pretty popular. It's a shame he's shit at making weight though. He failed to make 170 a few times, which is why he's back at middleweight for this one. I still think he can do well at 185 but looking at his frame, I think 170 was the weight for him. And it wasn't like he was ripped at 170, he shouldn't have struggled to make the weight as much as he did really. He'll be a bit of a small middleweight, which will limit how far he can go IMO. I mean picture him in there with a Rockhold or Romero down the line. We'll see.

 

He's fighting Nate Marquardt. A long-time veteran who knows all the tricks and is good in all areas. Marquardt also went back up to 185 from 170 in his last fight, after a string of losses. He looked good in submitting James Te Huna but he's got the feel of a fighter in the decline.

 

Gastelum should win this, I think.

 

Rodriguez vs Rosa is on the main card as far as I know. Don't know enough about either guy really. Rodriguez is the TUF Latin America featherweight winner. Rosa had a cracking fight with Dennis Siver last year. That's the extent of my knowledge on these two.

 

Torres vs Hill is confirmed for the PPV card. I expect a fun fight here. Tecia Torres has the potential to be a future strawweight title contender IMO. Hill has good striking but she's inexperienced and Torres has the grappling edge and good enough striking to hang there too. Should be fun but it's kind of a showcase for Torres.

 

Prelims aren't anything special but there's some stuff of note.

 

Henry Cejudo stands out on the undercard. He should get a bit of a superstar reaction in Mexico. And with Dodson not looking that impressive against Makovsky on Saturday night, Cejudo could realistically swoop in and steal his title shot if he puts in a strong showing here. Chico Camus is a tough opponent, Duke Roufus fighter and solid at everything but Cejudo should beat him.

 

Aside from that...

 

Efrain Escudero, one of the most disappointing TUF winners ever, is on the card.

 

Montano vs Pendred could be decent. Montano looked pretty good at UFC 180 from what I remember.

 

I think it's going to be one of those cards where some of these undercard fights turn out better than we expect. Mexicans fighting in Mexico usually is a good combination.

 

I just pray the top three fights stay intact because they're what's keeping this card must-see.

 

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Werdum is underrated in some ways, and has developed into a better than most projected (including myself).

 

However, unless Cain's injuries have really hindered his performance, I see him winning handily. It's just a terrible style match-up for Werdum. Cain's striking is far too relentless for Werdum to deal with. Big Nog was giving Werdum issues by backing him up with punches in their fight a few years back. Plus, Cain should be able to dictate the fight, given his superior wrestling. 

 

Cain by TKO in the 2nd or 3rd. 

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I had a look at Werdum's Wiki page for more information, and it seems things could get really interesting if (and I appreciate it's a big "if") he beats Cain. Seems he's got defeats to Dos Santos, Arlovski and Overeem to avenge.

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I had a look at Werdum's Wiki page for more information, and it seems things could get really interesting if (and I appreciate it's a big "if") he beats Cain. Seems he's got defeats to Dos Santos, Arlovski and Overeem to avenge.

 

Bit like Jones disappearing ... does wonders for the division.

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I had a look at Werdum's Wiki page for more information, and it seems things could get really interesting if (and I appreciate it's a big "if") he beats Cain. Seems he's got defeats to Dos Santos, Arlovski and Overeem to avenge.

 

Bit like Jones disappearing ... does wonders for the division.

 

 

Can't say that's the same whatsoever. Cain getting beat yes, that's good for the division. Jones getting stripped of the title, meaning fans questioning the legitimacy of Cormier's reign with his first defence against Ryan fucking Bader, nope, that ain't good for the division at all unfortunately. 

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I had a look at Werdum's Wiki page for more information, and it seems things could get really interesting if (and I appreciate it's a big "if") he beats Cain. Seems he's got defeats to Dos Santos, Arlovski and Overeem to avenge.

 

Bit like Jones disappearing ... does wonders for the division.

 

 

Can't say that's the same whatsoever. Cain getting beat yes, that's good for the division. Jones getting stripped of the title, meaning fans questioning the legitimacy of Cormier's reign with his first defence against Ryan fucking Bader, nope, that ain't good for the division at all unfortunately. 

 

 

But what was left for Jones to do? He'd cleared the division out.

 

Now at least we've got the prospect of Jones vs DC 2, DC vs Glover, DC vs Gusty, DC vs Evans ...

 

And Cormier is the kind of guy that will sell a fight in such a way that even DC / Bader (already!) has some interest behind.

 

I'm not saying I'm glad the Jones stuff has happened; just looking at the positives. The belt was effectively dead if Jones beat Rumble.

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The belt was far from dead with Jones keeping a hold of it. There was always going to be a Jones/Cormier 2, plus we would have seen Jones vs Johnson, where as David stated, Johnson is far better suited to Jones than Cormier. Plus the Gustaffson rematch and also a rematch with Evans. On top of that you had potential fights of Cormier vs Evans, Cormier vs Gustaffson, Cormier vs Johnson (IF they hadn't faced each other last weekend), and the already announced then scrapped Cormier vs Bader fight.

 

Sorry Chunk, the only good thing from Jones leaving is that Cormier, who is amazing, gets his chance to hold the belt. 

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Let's assume, for the purpose of discussion, that Werdum wins, and he decides to try and avenge his losses. How do you guys feel he'd fare against the current versions of:

 

1. Dos Santos?

2. Arlovski?

3. Overeem?

 

If he beats Velasquez, one would have to assume that he's improved enough to have more than a decent chance against those three. Seeing as I'm still very much an MMA noob, I'd be very interested in hearing you guys' analyses of how their respective skills would colour their matches and their outcomes.

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Definitely has a good shot at those three.

 

1) Junior Dos Santos - the first fight was in 2008 and JDS came in as pretty much an unknown. So you could argue that Werdum didn't know what he was up against there. He definitely seemed to come in underprepared. He looked soft physically and slow moving and I think he was going through some contract disputes with the UFC at that time, hence why he was let go so abruptly after the loss.

 

Myself, I'd still probably favour JDS but I don't think it'd be anything like the blowout the first one was. Werdum is a different beast now and the jury is out on if JDS is on the decline after the two brutal Cain losses and the Miocic war. Assuming JDS still has some gas in the tank though, I think Werdum would struggle with him. He'd hang on the feet better now but JDS is still a better boxer and he's more powerful. I think JDS would be able to outstrike him like Hunt was doing early on, but for longer, and JDS' takedown defence is probably good enough to defend Werdum's shots.

 

It's the most interesting fight of the three by far for me.

 

2) Alistair Overeem - I think Werdum beats him. Possibly handily too. Overeem's kind of on the rebound now but Werdum is in the best form of his career. Their first fight was turd and as I recall, many had Werdum edging it. And that was when Overeem had the monster aura and Werdum looked off. So if it was close then, I see Werdum pulling ahead now.

 

3) Andrei Arlovski - again, first fight was cack, but I think a rematch now would be much better based on how they're both looking lately. If you asked me a year ago if I'd like to see Werdum vs Arlovski 2 I'd say 'nah I'm good thanks'. Different story now though. Werdum's on a tear and Arlovski's is in the midst of an almost miraculous career resurgence and coming off a FOTY contender. Amazing when you think back to the head scratching and confused articles and forum posts when Arlovski was re-signed by the UFC.

 

I'd probably pick Werdum now. He's got more tools and I still don't have confidence in Arlovski's chin. You never know though, as well as his dangerous standup, Arlovski also always had a good sprawl. Could be tricky for Werdum.

 

So yeah, I'd give him a good chance against all three. If I had to pick though, I say he beats Overeem and Arlovski and loses to JDS.

 

Regardless, I've got Cain beating him.

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yeh, i'd probably pick Werdum in all 3 if they fought now. Wand. was pretty much nailed on the reasons why for me too. Werdum just seems to have a new found confidence in his stand-up game, he's added all kinds of new tools. Werdum is probably the most well rounded heavyweight in MMA. I'd favour him over anyone but Cain and possibly Miocic at this point.

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Does anyone actually think that a fit and healthy Cain will see a win for anyone other than ol' pillowhands?

 

I don't actually understand that sentence. Who's pillowhands? Bisping?

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If Cain still looks how he looked in his last fight against JDS, he really should win, in my opinion. But he's been out so long and had so many injuries it's at the point where nothing is certain. We don't know what we're getting from him here. I'm assuming he'll have had a great training camp though, with both Cormier and Rockhold fighting recently they'll have been in the gym all the time. But it's still a bit of a question mark for me. He could come back and beast it like Dominick Cruz, or he might look like the layoffs and injuries have caught up with him.

 

Assuming he's the Cain we're familiar with though, I think he wins. Even as improved as Werdum is, it's just a hard as fuck fight for him. Saying that, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of Werdum getting the better of the striking. And if he does, will Cain risk taking him down? We've never seen Cain in a guard like Werdum's so really, all bets are off there. His BJJ hasn't really been put to the test because he's been so dominant he usually dictates where the fight takes place. But I could see a scenario where Werdum catches Cain with some strikes, Cain shoots for a takedown...then he's in Werdum's world. Cain is awesome but he's not inhuman. And contrary to Rogan's bumlicking, Cain does have a ceiling on his cardio. He was knackered by round three or four in the second JDS fight and his takedown attempts were sloppy as fuck. He only got away with that because he'd already scrambled JDS' brain by that point and so JDS was unable to do much. Cain's got great cardio for a heavyweight but it's not like Rogan makes out, there's a limit to everything, even Cardio Cain.

 

I think Cain's safest path to victory is also the most boring one. I think we'll see a lot of Cain controlling Werdum against the cage and using dirty boxing, uppercuts and knees. If he gets an opening to hurt Werdum, he'll pounce, but otherwise I see him mostly going for a lot of fence clinching and control. Striking at long range favours Werdum IMO.

 

In some ways this is like an updated version of Fedor vs Nogueira style-wise. Aggression and pressure vs range and a lethal guard. But Werdum's guard is even more threatening than Nog's was, and Cain is less reckless than Fedor.

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yeh the question mark for me coming into this one is what kind of shape/form Cain comes in at. If he's back to as he was i think Cain dominates and wins within the distance. It fucking sucks that he spends so much time injured, Cain is the greatest heavyweight in the sports history in my opinion and we're missing out on the prime years of his career due to injury, sucks.

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