UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida

[wandshogun09]

OK, after a few less than stacked cards lately, we've got this beauty fast approaching. Between this and the TUF Finale the following day, which features Frankie Edgar vs BJ Penn 3, this is one of the biggest fight weekends in UFC history.

 

 

PPV MAIN CARD

Chris Weidman vs Lyoto Machida - UFC Middleweight Title

Ronda Rousey vs Alexis Davis - UFC Womens Bantamweight Title

Stefan Struve vs Matt Mitrione

Uriah Hall vs Thiago Santos

Marcus Brimage vs Russell Doane

 

FOX SPORTS 1 PRELIMS

Urijah Faber vs Alex Caceres

Ildemar Alcantara vs Kenny Robertson

Chris Camozzi vs Bruno Santos

George Roop vs Rob Font

 

FIGHT PASS PRELIMS

Kevin Casey vs Bubba Bush

Luke Zachrich vs Guilherme Vasconcelos

 

The bout order might change yet. It probably will actually. I'm just going off MMAJunkie's listings. They'll probably put either Struve-Mitrione or Hall-Santos on the FOX Sports prelims. Can't see Camozzi-Santos being the 'Prelim Main Event'.

 

Pretty stacked card. Although it got a bit less stacked with the recent Sonnen-Wanderlei-Belfort testosterone triangle of controversy.

 

Chris Weidman vs Lyoto Machida is a fucking fantastic main event. The way they match up, the streak Weidman is on, how good Machida has looked so far at 185, the backstory of Weidman ending Anderson Silva's reign of terror and now having to face Anderson's buddy. I can't wait for this one.

 

It's been a bumpy road to get to this fight. It was originally supposed to be Weidman vs Vitor Belfort at UFC 173 in May, but everything went a bit weird when TRT was banned, which led to Vitor disappearing from the sport for a bit. Machida stepped in but then the fight had to be pushed back to July due to a Weidman knee injury. So here we are.

 

As exciting as Weidman vs Belfort would've been, I actually think Weidman vs Machida is a more interesting fight stylistically. I was pretty certain Weidman was beating Belfort. As long as he got through the first two rounds I think he'd have had his way with that fight. Belfort has always struggled with wrestlers and faded in fights and I think Weidman's skillset is basically Belfort kryptonite. Machida's a different fight completely. He can frustrate the fuck out of his opponents with his unique style. His movement is unlike anyone else in the division. His accuracy is ridiculous, he's hard to hit, hard to take down. And because of his methodical style, he can go five rounds at pretty much the same pace throughout. I actually think he's a tougher style for Weidman than Anderson was, because he's better at defending the takedown and is great at creating space and doing damage from distance in bursts.

 

 

It's a hell of a fight. I can't decide who I think will win. I'm dead on 50/50 at the moment.

 

Weidman vs Machida trailer

 

Co-headlining is Ronda Rousey vs Alexis Davis for the Womens Bantamweight Title. Another fun clash of styles. Rousey's judo vs Davis' BJJ. Could be a tremendous grappling match or a sloppy striking match. Like with most Rousey fights, I'd say her opponent has the edge in the striking. Davis isn't great on the feet but she's aggressive and has decent attacks from the clinch. She really took it to Liz Carmouche on the feet. Then again, I thought Sara McMann might have the edge last time. Ronda's striking is slowly improving but, clearly, it's neither's strong suit.

 

The grappling is where the fight could really be intriguing. I've seen a few comments, even from Rousey herself, saying she hasn't fought a BJJ black-belt yet. But she actually submitted Ediane Gomes, who is a black-belt, in 25 seconds in her MMA debut. Still, nice way to sell the fight, I guess. Davis is certainly a strong grappler. BJJ black-belt under Cesar Gracie. It shouldn't be easy for Rousey to just buzzsaw through her on the ground. She's a more complete grappler than the likes of Tate and Carmouche for sure. Rousey herself has said Davis is the most well rounded opponent she'll have faced yet.

 

The problem I see for Davis though, is she seems more of a top game specialist. Most of her subs are rear naked chokes, and even most of her decision wins were from top control advantages. How likely is she to put Ronda on her back? I think Ronda will probably dictate the takedowns so Davis will probably be on the bottom more. I'm looking forward to see how it plays out.

 

They don't seem to dislike each other much, but Davis did have a bit of a pop when the fight was announced;

"It's all karma. Karma is going to come right back at you ... That's why I'm going to win the belt. Karma is going to come back to her. There's some boundaries you have to have. But I can only imagine the pressure she feels in this situation. She's brought it on herself, all this shit talking, calling people out. She's not a huge Cyborg fan. I think she has to push it every single time. That's not my personality. I keep trying, it just sounds stupid when it comes out ... I believe if I were a little more vocal I would have gotten the title shot already."

 

She turned up looking and sounding stoned at the press conference (seems all the Cesar Gracie black-belts like a smoke) and said Ariel Helwani "took the quote out of context".

 

Another thing I wouldn't be surprised to see brought up in the build up, is that Davis submitted Rousey's training partner and friend Shayna Baszler in Invicta a while back.

 

It's potentially a very fun fight, but I don't think Davis wins this. I can see her taking Rousey into a bit of a longer fight though.

 

 

Ronda Rousey highlight

 

In a fight that will probably be overshadowed by the above two, but one I absolutely love, Urijah Faber faces Alex 'Bruce Leroy' Caceres. This was a total surprise to me when it was announced. Two fighters I've loved watching for years, but at different ends of the card usually. Faber's obviously the big name. He's arguably the biggest star under 155lbs in the UFC, aside from maybe BJ Penn. Caceres though, has been tearing shit up on the prelims kind of under the radar since his 2010 stint on TUF. One exciting fight after another, creative style on the feet and the ground, cool as fuck afro, great nickname. I remember thinking he was a right twat when I first saw him on TUF but I've become a big fan of his over time.

 

It's a fight that doesn't appear to make much sense at first glance, but I think it's a logical fight to make when you look closer. For one, Faber is out of the title picture for a bit most likely. He was 0-2 to Barao and now his teammate TJ Dillashaw holds the gold. I doubt we'll be seeing a Dillashaw vs Faber fight anytime soon, despite Dana saying he thinks "they'd fight tomorrow" over the weekend. So now is the time where I think we'll see Faber just do the 'fun fight' rounds for a while. He's mentioned possibly bouncing between bantamweight and featherweight before, and just having interesting fights. He's specifically mentioned Frankie Edgar a few times, which would be tremendous. There's also potential for a Faber vs BJ Penn fight which would be one I'd be all over.

 

For Caceres, this fight makes all the sense in the world. He's finally getting his big break. Coming from behind to submit the unbeaten and highly thought of Sergio Pettis seems to have opened up some eyes at Zuffa HQ.

 

It's got the feel of a Faber showcase really, to set him up with something bigger later in the year. When you consider the way Faber has handled the likes of Michael McDonald over the last year, I can't see Caceres giving him any major problems. But it's such a fun fight stylistically on paper.

 

 

Urijah Faber 'California Love' highlight

 

Bruce Leroy's 'Cowboy Bebop' entrance from last year's Japan show

 

Stefan Struve vs Matt Mitrione. First fight for Struve since March 2013. He had his jaw broken by the mighty Mark Hunt that night. Then he found out he had a heart condition and it was touch and go whether he'd ever fight again. Thankfully he's back to full health now and he's back. Should be a really exciting fight as well. Struve's fights are always entertaining. He's like a heavyweight Chris Lytle or Martin Kampmann. And Meathead usually has fun fights. Twat though. I'm really hoping Struve returns in style here and picks up an impressive win.

 

Prelims aren't anything special but with that main card I don't really care. Uriah Hall has a fun style to watch. Camozzi is a scrapper. Kenny Robertson has some entertaining and creative grappling, him and Alcantara could be a great ground fight.

 

It's a really strong card. Even with taking a huge couple of hits in losing both Sonnen vs Wanderlei and Sonnen vs Belfort. There's plenty to look forward to still. Can't wait.

 

[jimufctna24]

I want Machida to win, but I think Weidman will prevail

 

Weidman's boxing is pretty solid. You can argue it is bread and butter, but it is quite advanced for a MMA fighter. Check the flicker jab he used to beat Anderson in the first fight. Weidman is also not gun shy, it is unlikely he will just stand there and freeze against Machida. Weidman shows little respect for reputation, check how he threw with little caution to score a knockdown over Anderson during the second fight. Machida is an underrated grappler, but Weidman's domain is wrestling, he looked more than comfy in Anderson's guard.

 

Machida has to hope he can make Weidman freeze enough to rack up the rounds. Machida can do this by creating distance and throwing enough to sway to the judges, but not get too overly eager and allow Weidman to land, it is a very delicate balance. It comes down to can Weidman close the distance, I think he can sadly and should be able to clip Machida.

 

One variable is that Weidman is rumored to have got caught up in the limelight, and was not fully dialed in for the Anderson rematch (although you could never tell). That sort of approach could catch up to Weidman eventually, Machida is not a fighter to be taken lightly under any circumstance.

 

That said, I like Weidman by TKO. I think he is the real deal, and will become the 185lbs version of Cain.

[wandshogun09]

I've got a feeling it's going the distance, but I'm not decided in who's favour yet.

 

You raise some good points though. Weidman definitely has that fearlessness to him. Doesn't seem to care about the reputation or aura of his opponent one bit. Reminds me of how Gustafsson approached Jones in that way. And how Robbie Lawler approaches everyone. I think that helped him both times against Anderson. He's got ridiculous confidence and self belief. Remember he was vocal about being the man to beat Anderson a long time before he even fought him.

 

But at the same time, Machida could throw him off. Weidman hasn't dealt with anyone quite like Machida. And we still haven't really seen how Weidman responds to getting hit clean and hard. He hasn't really been cracked good yet, has he? I can't remember. With Machida's accuracy and speed, he might put that to the test.

 

I think where Machida is trickier than Anderson was, is he's less likely to lose his cool if things get ugly. Anderson was clearly flustered in the first fight, hence all the taunting where he was actually shouting and gesturing at Weidman between rounds to 'stand for the fans'. I think Machida is less likely to get rattled. I think his takedown defence is a little bit better than Anderson's and his weird movement might make the takedowns difficult to time as well. And he can be hard to land punches on.

 

It's a tough one to call. And if it does go long, will Weidman hold up in the championship rounds? We know Machida can go five and he's looked tremendous at 185 so far. Then again, you never know which Machida will turn up. The Machida we've seen recently against Munoz and Mousasi looked refreshed and motivated. The Machida who fought Phil Davis and Hendo last year looked like he had somewhere more interesting to be and was mentally planning a picnic or something.

 

One variable is that Weidman is rumored to have got caught up in the limelight, and was not fully dialed in for the Anderson rematch (although you could never tell).

 

Where did you read this? Not doubting it, just haven't heard that before.

[jimufctna24]

Jordan Breen tweeted it just as Weidman was walking to the cage for the second Anderson fight.

 

I think Machida's has addressed his issues of being passive, he displayed more aggression when fighting Mousasi and Munoz. At the very least he threw with higher volume. There is a decent argument that Machida has a chance on paper. Weidman will have to be more patient than usual

 

Sadly I cannot shake Weidman getting inside and connecting at some stage.

[David]

I've been pretty vocal about how I remain unconvinced by Weidman as the force he's being touted as. I still remain unconvinced of his two wins over Anderson, but I did say that I'd start judging him on his defences, and this fight for me will tell me if he's legit or not.

 

Even if he loses a narrow decision or whatever, he can still come across as a legit force. It'll be interesting to see.

[Egg Shen]

David, ever the critic.

[David]

David, ever the critic.

What can I say? I just haven't quite bought into the idea of Weidman as a legit force quite yet. As I said, a definitive win over Machida will go a long way to changing that viewpoint.

[herbie747]

I still remain unconvinced of his two wins over Anderson

 

But he completely won the first round of their first fight. He even got a takedown. That's why it baffled me when Anderson started showboating - he had been losing up to that point.

[David]

I still remain unconvinced of his two wins over Anderson

 

But he completely won the first round of their first fight. He even got a takedown. That's why it baffled me when Anderson started showboating - he had been losing up to that point.

Yeah, but Sonnen won the first four rounds of his fight with Anderson, didn't he? He got multiple takedowns. I wouldn't classify Sonnen as a major force in the division.

 

All I'm saying is, if Weidman had put Silva away in the first fight before he started showboating, I'd think differently. If he had finished Anderson via strikes or even won a decision in their second fight I'd think differently.

 

Say what you want, but both of those fights were controversial and weird. At the moment I have no issue buying Hendricks as the champ, because he beat GSP over 5 rounds I feel. I have no issues buying into Dillashaw because he won in a straight forward fashion. Weidman doesn't have that, and it's not his fault, of course.

 

I just think that some normal wins over the likes of Belfort and Machida, for example, will go a long way to legitimising his run. I just don't "feel" him as champion yet. The wins were unusual.

[herbie747]

But didn't Anderson have a rib injury going into the first Chael fight? It certainly didn't look like a top notch Anderson. Their 2nd fight looked more like how the first would have gone if both were healthy.

[David]

But didn't Anderson have a rib injury going into the first Chael fight? It certainly didn't look like a top notch Anderson. Their 2nd fight looked more like how the first would have gone if both were healthy.

Yeah, but what I'm saying is that there were extraordinary circumstances that led to Chael looking great in that first fight, right? So I don't think it was a true reflection of Sonnen.

 

The same goes for me with Weidman. There were extraordinary circumstances that led to both of his wins over Anderson (neither of them his fault, and one of them Anderson's for being a dick, but still).

 

All I'm saying is that the jury is still out on Weidman for me. If he beats Machida and maybe even Belfort then I'll likely warm to him.

[lambyUK]

But didn't Anderson have a rib injury going into the first Chael fight? It certainly didn't look like a top notch Anderson. Their 2nd fight looked more like how the first would have gone if both were healthy.

Yeah, but what I'm saying is that there were extraordinary circumstances that led to Chael looking great in that first fight, right? So I don't think it was a true reflection of Sonnen.

 

The same goes for me with Weidman. There were extraordinary circumstances that led to both of his wins over Anderson (neither of them his fault, and one of them Anderson's for being a dick, but still).

 

All I'm saying is that the jury is still out on Weidman for me. If he beats Machida and maybe even Belfort then I'll likely warm to him.

 

Your point would make sense if not for the fact Anderson was getting absolutely dominated by Weidman up to both finishes in the fight. It was even more of a beating in the second fight where Silva was out cold on his feet at one point.

[David]

Your point would make sense if not for the fact Anderson was getting absolutely dominated by Weidman up to both finishes in the fight. It was even more of a beating in the second fight where Silva was out cold on his feet at one point.

Come on now, you've been following the sport for long enough to know that someone appearing to get dominated for a portion of a fight means next to nothing. As I said, Chael dominated Anderson for most of their first fight, and got the takedown in the first frame of their second, didn't he? He managed to catch him a few times as well.

 

All I'm saying is that it'll take a few "normal" wins over top contenders before I buy Weidman as champion. No amount of arguing is going to change the fact that I don't "feel" him as a champion yet.

[Carbomb]

Your point would make sense if not for the fact Anderson was getting absolutely dominated by Weidman up to both finishes in the fight. It was even more of a beating in the second fight where Silva was out cold on his feet at one point.

Come on now, you've been following the sport for long enough to know that someone appearing to get dominated for a portion of a fight means next to nothing. As I said, Chael dominated Anderson for most of their first fight, and got the takedown in the first frame of their second, didn't he? He managed to catch him a few times as well.

 

But surely that particular point would only be relevant if Anderson had beaten Weidman out of the blue after being dominated? If Weidman dominated the fight, then knocked out Anderson, it makes it sound a bit one-sided.

[wandshogun09]

Sometimes I honestly think Weidman would have got way more respect for the Anderson fights if he'd done exactly what he did in both first rounds, but then lost later in the fight. It's like people put Anderson on this 'unbeatable' pedestal so long they can't accept that Weidman beat him and cling to anything they can to discredit him.

 

Yeah, the finish to the second fight was unsatisfactory. Anderson's showboating in the first fight was silly (although why do you think he was doing that? He wanted to goad Weidman into striking because he was spooked by the opening ground exchange is my guess). But Weidman dominated about 95% of both fights. Knocked him out cold in the first. Almost knocked him out in the second. Went for submissions in the first. The difference with Chael was Chael couldn't really hurt Anderson, and back then Chael's submission defence was suspect. The longer Chael sat in Anderson's guard the more likely he'd get stuck in a triangle. There was none of that with Weidman. Anderson couldn't sit back waiting for an opening because he was getting his face smacked in, he was having to fend off leg lock attempts etc. All Chael brought was wrestling. Weidman had that as well, but he also had strong BJJ and power in his hands.

 

To me, even if Weidman lost in the second round of both fights, how is he not legit after his performance in both first rounds? Doing that to Anderson Silva means you are a legit fighter. Especially when you throw in that he came into the first fight off a year layoff and had only had 9 fights or something. That's ridiculous.

 

Even if Weidman loses to Machida, that doesn't prove anything about the Anderson fights one way or another. It's a different fight entirely. A loss to Machida doesn't invalidate the Anderson wins.