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UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw


wandshogun09

Who wins and how?  

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PPV MAIN CARD

Renan Barao vs TJ Dillashaw - UFC Bantamweight Title

Daniel Cormier vs Dan Henderson

Robbie Lawler vs Jake Ellenberger

Takeya Mizugaki vs Francisco Rivera

Jamie Varner vs James Krause

 

FOX SPORTS 1 PRELIMS

Michael Chiesa vs Francisco Trinaldo

Tony Ferguson vs Katsunori Kikuno

Chris Holdsworth vs Chico Camus

Al Iaquinta vs Mitch Clarke

 

FIGHT PASS PRELIMS

Anthony Njokuani vs Vinc Pichel

Sam Sicilia vs Aaron Phillips

Li Jingliang vs David Michaud

 

Another good card. I don't think this looks as strong top to bottom as 172 did, but there's some good shit here. Prelims are nothing too special but I really love the main card.

 

Barao vs Dillashaw isn't that sexy a fight, especially as a PPV headliner. But I think it'll be exciting at least. I don't really fancy Dillashaw's chances, so that takes a bit of buzz away to some extent, but I always enjoy watching Barao fight. Dillashaw is very good, I just think Barao is on another level. Kind of a cool backstory though with Barao beating Dillashaw's mentor Urijah Faber twice and Dillashaw trying to avenge his master. I love all that Van Damme shit.

 

I think Barao ultimately wins fairly comfortably though. At this point Barao has almost cleaned out the 135 division. There's really only Dillashaw and Assuncao in the running at the moment. And Dominick Cruz is the only scalp he hasn't added to his resume of the top guys.

 

I hope Barao's run continues for a while yet. In a sport as chaotic and hard to prodict as MMA, it's refreshing to see a guy like Barao on such a lengthy unbeaten streak. It's a great story.

 

Cormier vs Hendo feels like a huge mismatch at this stage in the game. It's two guys at totally different points in their careers. Cormier is on the rise. He started MMA relatively late, doesn't have many miles on the clock as a fighter and has avoided the wars for the most part. Hendo is the polar opposite. He's been through a lot physically the last couple of years. He's 43, his knees are fucked, he gets dropped and hurt in fights more and more these days, walks like a pensioner and appears unable to turn his head without moving his entire upper body. Like the Andre The Giant Hasbro. He's banged up big time.

 

As nice a story as it would be to see Hendo get that one final shot at UFC gold, and as dangerous as he still is if he connects with that right hand, I just can't see it. Cormier is bigger, younger, faster, way less banged up, he's a better wrestler, he's got power. On paper it's not looking good for Hendo.

 

I expect it to still be entertaining. And Hendo will be game. I just see DC being too much for him. It was originally announced that this would be a #1 contender fight but by the time Jones vs Gustafsson 2 plays out, I can see the winner of this wanting to stay active and taking another fight. So maybe the winner fights Rumble Johnson.

 

033114-UFC-Cormier-and-Henderson-PI-CH.vadapt.320.medium.5.jpg

 

That's your co-main event.

 

I love the Lawler vs Ellenberger fight! Ellenberger can run hot or cold. We've seen him look like a beast like when he wrecked Marquardt in a round or the war he had with Condit. Other times he looks like he doesn't want to be there like the Rory and Jay Hieron fights. He won't be able to arse about in second gear against Lawler, that's for sure. Lawler is a fucking killer. Win or lose he's going to try to take the opponent's head clean off. And when Ellenberger is on he's the same. Two of the more powerful strikers at 170. And Lawler has shown incredible defensive wrestling at 170 against Hendricks, Rory and Koscheck. A win for Lawler here could put him right back into the title hunt, and the same goes for Ellenberger. Great, great fight. Can't wait.

 

Mizugaki vs Rivera is one of those fights that probably won't get a lot of conversation going in but I can't see any way it will fail to deliver. Mizugaki is just so much fun to watch. Really good boxing, decent ground game and a constantly attacking style. Mizugaki vs Nam Phan from the Australia card in December was fantastic. It got forgotten because Mark Hunt and Bigfoot tore the house down later that night, but it was a really great fight. Mizugaki's had a few stormers over the years. The Miguel Torres fight in WEC was another. And Rivera is one of those prelim guys I love watching. Usually always in exciting fights. Nice to see these two make the main card and get some of the spotlight.

 

Varner vs Krause should kick the PPV off with a bang. Varner is one of those fighters I dislike but love to watch fight. His career is full of wars. The Cerrone fights, the corker with Lauzon on FOX, the Rob McCullough fight in WEC, the shock KO of Barboza, and of course the absolute thriller Abel Trujillo last time out. Never a dull moment. And Krause is a great opponent for him. He had an excellent overlooked fight with Sam Stout last June, dangerous in all areas. Coming off a controversial loss to Bobby Green with all the bollock shots and with Varner coming off a KO loss to Trujillo, they'll both be looking for redemption. Recipe for another war.

 

Prelims are alright. Nothing really grabs me to be honest. I really like Trinaldo so I'm looking forward to his fight. Iaquinta vs Clarke is actually a potential show stealer, I reckon. Really enjoy both those guys' fights.

 

This card is basically like Arianny. It's top heavy and lacking at the bottom end. But could be fun to spend a few hours with.

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This card is basically like Arianny. It's top heavy and lacking at the bottom end. But could be fun to spend a few hours with.

7/10, and I am being generous

 

The Main Event is the least appealing in terms of star power that I can remember for a UFC PPV. Sure someone will find a worse one, but I am stumped off the top of my head.

 

I will be watching though. D.R probably needs a big-name win on his resume inside the UFC (and at 205lbs). Lawler vs Ellenberger could be a lot of fun, I hope Lawler wins.

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7/10, and I am being generous

 

7/10 for Arianny isn't bad...oh, you meant...fuck you then.

 

I guess it depends what people class as an appealing PPV main event. I mean, fights like Jones vs Sonnen and GSP vs Diaz lacked competitiveness, in theory and in practice. But they still had a buzz about them. Ideally you want a competitive fight that brings the big fight feel as well, Jones vs Gus 2 should be that all over.

 

Barao vs Dillashaw isn't a bad fight by any means. Barao has to fight someone and Dillashaw has earned it. But it's definitely lacking something. Even though I was confident Jones would beat Glover, it still felt like a big event. This doesn't so much for me. I just can't see Dillashaw hanging with Barao.

 

I think you'd have to go back to Cain vs Bigfoot 2 or Evans vs Hendo last year for a PPV main event on a par with this for lack of appeal.

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Hendo vs Rashad was not a PPV Main Event, but it featured two established MMA legends finally meeting. Cain vs Big Foot at least showcased the best Heavyweight the UFC has ever seen.

 

Barao is a masterful fighter, one of the very best in the world. But I do not look forward to his fights. When Jon Jones or GSP have fought in the past 2 years, I have felt the need to watch (even when fighting guys beneath them). Barao is someone I could happily skip.

 

The last fight Barao had I actually stayed up for (I would not normally but I had been on a night out, and I got in when the event was about to start and though fuck it, in for a penny in for a pound as they say). When Overeem and Mir signed off I had a big drop off in motivation to stay up, and not just because that fight was sub-par. I think I spent more time discussing Mir vs Overeem with my prediction rival/friend, than I did Aldo and Barao's fights combined.

 

I did stay up in the end, but god was I wanting the end to come. Aldo has the get out clause of not fighting a name fighter, Barao however was fighting Faber who is a big name. Barao's fights are exciting, but they lack that hook that gets me pumped up. Jones vs Glover last weekend I did not have that problem with, even at 5am I was still fixed on the screen.

 

Barao going on last could be a problem for me. After D.C and Lawler (who might not be as skilled as Barao, but I care about them more), I might struggle to retain motivation to keep viewing if I chose to stay up and watch.

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i think the UFC are giving Barao and Johnson PPV headline slots to break them through that glass ceiling and show people that these guys are legit headline worthy champions, its a bit of a gamble but i think its one worth taking.

 

Dana's constant talking up of Barao (P4P king) is all aimed at trying to make the guy a PPV draw in my opinion (though its not far off the truth).

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i think the UFC are giving Barao and Johnson PPV headline slots to break them through that glass ceiling and show people that these guys are legit headline worthy champions, its a bit of a gamble but i think its one worth taking.

 

Yeah, and if you notice now, they don't like headlining PPVs with non-title fights these days. The last was Rashad vs Hendo last June. And it did poorly. As did Wand vs Franklin 2 the year before. Maybe that's soured them on headlining with a non-title fight so they're trying to build up all their champions as something you need to pay for. They're probably hoping Barao and Johnson will gain popularity by headlining on top of bigger names like Hendo, Cormier, Lawler, Arlovski etc.

 

Does anyone fancy Dillashaw or Hendo to pull off the upset? No votes for either so far. Not that I'm really surprised. I hope they end up more competitive than they appear though. I could possibly see Dillashaw making a fight of it. But I really think Hendo is getting wrecked here. He's giving up too much size and all the advantages (bar one punch KO power) lie with Cormier. I've got a feeling he's going to get manhandled and stopped, in similar fashion to Bigfoot vs Fedor, and people will be really calling for Hendo to retire by Sunday morning. I hope I'm wrong and Hendo can surprise us and give DC a good fight, but I can't see it.

 

I'm going with Barao by submission, Cormier by KO/TKO and Lawler by decision. Really almost 50/50 on Lawler vs Ellenberger though.

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I must admit, whilst I'm aware that casuals tend to be a bit "shallow" (for want of a better word) in that they tend to view only HWs as having any real value in MMA or boxing, I am still a bit mystified by the lack of appreciation for Barao. The guy's a fucking beast, for crying out loud. I don't know about anyone else, but I think he's a truly exciting fighter to watch. I was massively disappointed by the ref's call for the Faber re-match, but not because I thought Faber would win - I felt robbed of what I thought was going to be an awesome match where we'd see two top-level fighters duke it out, before Barao put Faber away. I wanted to see how he would win.

 

The guy's only lost one match, has been undefeated for fucking ages, looks nigh untouchable and has almost rinsed his division (what's the status concerning Assuncao's contendership?) to the point where he's probably going to have to move up to his more natural weight (his more natural weight! Considering how good he is now, even with Nova Uniao's weight-cutting thing). Outside of Jon Jones, is there really anyone more impressive around at the moment? Possibly Aldo, who is awesome, but he doesn't seem as "monolithic" a challenge to his division's contenders as Barao does. I could very well be wrong, of course.

 

Anyway, FTR, Renan Barao's become one of my favourites to watch. I hope he finally starts getting the recognition he deserves.

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I must admit, whilst I'm aware that casuals tend to be a bit "shallow" (for want of a better word) in that they tend to view only HWs as having any real value in MMA or boxing, I am still a bit mystified by the lack of appreciation for Barao. The guy's a fucking beast, for crying out loud. I don't know about anyone else, but I think he's a truly exciting fighter to watch. I was massively disappointed by the ref's call for the Faber re-match, but not because I thought Faber would win - I felt robbed of what I thought was going to be an awesome match where we'd see two top-level fighters duke it out, before Barao put Faber away. I wanted to see how he would win.

Is that really true though? GSP was constantly drawing big numbers (many consider him the top draw in the sport) and you had blokes like Silva and Penn doing well. In boxing you've got Mayweather and Pacquiao as the big draws in that sport, where as the HW division struggles.

 

Stars and personalities draw numbers, not size. Barao is a truly great fighter, but you need more than that to be a big draw in sports. What I'm getting at is UFC need to do a better job promoting the bloke, but he may not be what people want to buy into.

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Yeah, the 'heavyweights are the draws' thing hasn't really applied for a long time now if you really look at it. Boxing's main draws have been, as you say, Mayweather and Pacquiao, for the better part of the last decade now. Years ago it was the case that heavyweights were king, when you had Tyson doing monster business. But it hasn't been that way for years now. The heavies in boxing have the odd bright spot but it's not what it was. Floyd and Manny are the PPV kings. De La Hoya and Hatton were big stars as well.

 

Heavyweights in MMA, it's only ever been Brock Lesnar's run really. So 2008-2010ish. And then the Overeem fight in 2011. Light Heavyweight was the division the UFC buttered its bread with originally. You can go right back to Ken Shamrock vs Tito Ortiz in 2002. Even before that Tito was their guy. Then you had Chuck Liddell, Randy Couture, Vitor Belfort, Rampage, Hendo, Rashad, Machida, Shogun - up to the new era with Jones and Gustafsson. 205 was THE division for years. And of course you had GSP, Anderson Silva (although he didn't really catch on until about 2010/11 with the first Sonnen fight and the Belfort KO) and BJ Penn below that.

 

I think Barao kind of suffers from being in a pretty uninteresting division. He's an unbelievably talented fighter, he's exciting, he's aggressive, he does fun shit in the cage, he's got that long unbeaten streak. Doesn't speak English but Anderson rarely did either, and Barao is only young. There's no reason why in the future he can't have his 'Belfort toe-poke KO' moment that tips him over the edge in fans' eyes. But I think right now, he's suffering for lack of interesting challengers. He basically almost cleared out the 135 weightclass before he even won the title when you think about it. Wins over Faber, Pickett, Jorgensen, McDonald - these were all either non-title or interim title fights. Now he's the proper champ but he's already conquered all his challengers. It's a weird situation.

 

Guys like Dillashaw and Assuncao are good fighters and they deserve the chance to challenge Barao on merit. But they're not fighters you see testing Barao much, and they're not overly interesting or likeable as personalities. So you've got very little to latch onto. At least with Faber, even with how one sided the first fight was, he was a likeable guy who had been tearing the division up for a year. The best thing for Barao now would be if Dominick Cruz comes back (finally), somehow looks awesome beating someone in the top 10 at 135, then they do Barao vs Cruz for the belt. That's the biggest and best fight available at Bantamweight for Barao in the (hopefully) nearish future. And maybe Faber gets back in the hunt after destroying a few more guys. With the controversial stoppage last time, they could quite easily justify Barao vs Faber 3. And even if Cruz were to somehow upset Barao, you've got Cruz vs Faber 3. Can't lose.

 

So Barao could potentially have;

 

Dillashaw

Assuncao

Cruz

Faber third fight

 

A lot would have to go right obviously for those four fights to come off. Injuries and upsets will probably fuck it all up. But if those four fights happen, and Barao remains champion, that should take Barao into mid-late 2015. After that, barring some unexpected contender or star emerging at 135, that'd probably be an ideal time to move up to 145. And by then, hopefully Aldo will be at lightweight anyway going for the Pettis/Melendez winner.

 

You throw Barao in at 145 with the likes of Edgar, Swanson, Lamas, Poirier, McGregor, Guida etc, and he still keeps winning and his record stands at something mad like 50-1...Fuck! If he's still not getting the star recognition then, then there's nothing more you can do.

 

I remember years ago when Barao was still climbing the UFC ranks, Dana and Rogan were saying the Brazilians were saying Barao was going to be the man one day. If they were bumming him then, I can only assume they love him now. I wonder how big a deal he is in Brazil. I might be forgetting but I don't think they've had him on a Brazil card yet, have they?

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Fair enough on the HW thing - like a man wearing orthopaedic shoes, I stand corrected. Rest of my points stand, though.

 

An amazing summary there, wand. I really hope we get to see Barao at 145, because as you say there's a whole division there waiting for him to conquer (which I hope he does).

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Haven't watched these yet but here's the Countdown stuff;

 

Countdown - Barao vs Dillashaw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&a...p;v=ZtdnNZV52pQ

 

Countdown - Cormier vs Hendo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&a...p;v=VrEc6PWpjgs

 

Countdown - Lawler vs Ellenberger

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&a...p;v=cxAD4MNr6RA

 

Look up 'UFC Embedded' on YouTube as well. It's a series of video blogs following the preparation of Cormier and Hendo. Good stuff.

 

Luke Thomas quote on Barao

 

"Barao is probably the best at making adjustments between rounds, of all fighters in mixed martial arts today. Yes, he's great at jiu-jitsu. Yes, he's good at wrestling. And yes, he can strike. But the way in which he combines them, and I don't just mean he blends them, is that he uses them in a focused, efficient way. 'What do I need to do in this minute of this round? What do I need to do to set up something for the following two minutes, the following round?' And then if that doesn't work, he goes back in between rounds, calculates what didn't work, what he needs to do better, what was working, and then the game begins to shift. How do you keep up with a guy who makes adjustments on you? You have to make an adjustment on his adjustment. I don't think there's any fighter in the bantamweight division, except maybe Dominick Cruz, who can do that.

 

Assuming he doesn't catch one or make some grievous error, Barao's gonna walk away with this. And I like TJ Dillashaw a lot. I think if he loses, his career is far from over. I suspect down the road he'll get another title shot, whether Cruz or Barao or somebody else is champion. I'm a big believer in his athletic ability, I'm a big believer in his talent potential. But right now as it stands, there is nobody in the game who makes adjustments...and that's why being well rounded is so key, because he [barao] has all these different places he can go to if he needs to. It's not like he just strikes to strike. Or that he changes levels on a takedown just to change. Or that he works for certain submissions just to work for them. He spots weaknesses, like that. And he'll open up his game at first, to get you to open up yours, so that he can begin to make adjustments and whittle down things he doesn't want to use or can't use, or things he thinks won't work. So he can focus on the things he thinks will work. And because his toolbox is so vast, and so deep, he has all these different resources he can pull from.

 

Renan Barao is nasty. He is a nasty guy. When you get a guy that is that well rounded, with fight IQ that high...look out! I'm telling you, man. Barao is the truth!"

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In following Wand's post above, those UFC embedded videos really are fantastic. It really is a great insight into the preparations of the fighters during their build up to the fights. It's mostly focusing on Cormier, Hendo and Dana. However, the other fighters on the main card do make short appearances.

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I liked this. At today's fighter workouts, Dan Henderson attempted to sabotage Cormier's weight cut by having a load of Popeyes chicken sent to his dressing room. The bastard! Who knew Hendo was a practical joker?

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This show is tomorrow! - and this motherfucker's still on page 1? It's not the most stacked card ever but come on, where you at slackers?

 

The above Popeyes Chicken prank was in episode 4 of UFC Embedded. Skip to around 2.30 if you're too lazy to watch the whole 5 minutes;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&a...p;v=O2-PJi59_ro

 

Love it. Hendo is an evil bastard.

 

Dana was saying in the scrum that they thought these Embedded videos would have to be 'Cormier-heavy' because Hendo's never been much of a media guy, man of few words type etc. But he said Hendo's been great all week.

 

I think Hendo knows he's heading towards the finish line of his career and he's just trying to have fun with it. It reminds me of Cro Cop before the Pat Barry fight. Cro Cop hated doing media for so long, yet for that fight he was at all the media stuff and was cracking people up all week with his dry humour.

 

It won't happen but I'd love to see Hendo pull off the upset. And I've become a pretty big fan of Cormier. But Hendo has been a sentimental favourite of mine since I got into MMA. I've said before on here that Wanderlei vs Henderson 1 was the fight that really got me into the sport, and although Wand was my favourite from then on, Hendo has always hovered right up there in that group of guys I can't root against. Wandy, Shogun, Hendo, Nog, Hunt, Cro Cop, Manhoef. It goes on. It's a pretty big group actually but Hendo has always been right there among my favourites to watch. He's just hard as fuck, fights all comers, he's an animal.

 

I was torn on this fight but the closer it gets I'm finding myself hoping Hendo scores the upset. You get the feeling Cormier could get back in contention again at some point even with a loss tomorrow, not Hendo though. This is his last hope of a title shot. His chances are ridiculously slim, and even if he somehow pulls it off, his chances reduce to practically nothing if had to fight Jones or Gustafsson next. But fuck it. It'd be great to see him get that one final crack at UFC gold. The only title he hasn't held. It'd be a hell of a story.

 

Sadly, what I expect to happen is like I said before, basically a re-run of Bigfoot vs Fedor and subsequent calls for Hendo to retire. We'll see. For a mismatch though, I'm more into this fight the closer it gets than I thought I'd be. This Embedded thing probably has something to do with that though.

 

So yeah, if you haven't yet, I'd recommend giving these Embedded episodes a look. They're only short, 5-10 minutes each, so it doesn't ask much of your time. Nothing groundbreaking, they're basically a slicker version of Dana's video blogs. But I like that they're more focused on one fight.

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